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| ISHIGAKI, Japan — For decades, Testuhiro Kinjo’s biggest worry was defending his mango trees against typhoons and marauding insects. | 日本石垣市——几十年来，金城哲弘（音）最担心的莫过于他的芒果树遭受台风和昆虫的侵袭。 |
| That was before the Japanese government decided to deploy missile launchers near his property on Ishigaki, a small, subtropical island just 200 miles from Taiwan. | 那是日本政府决定在他的石垣岛房产附近部署导弹发射器之前的事。石垣是一个亚热带小岛，距台湾只有322公里。 |
| Over the past year, as China has carried out ever more overt displays of military force around Taiwan, Japan has grown increasingly concerned about the possibility of being drawn into a superpower conflict in its own backyard. | 过去一年里，随着中国在台湾附近日益公开地展示军事力量，日本越来越担心可能被卷入超级大国在自己后院的冲突。 |
| The missile installation going up on Ishigaki is intended to protect Japan. But if Beijing were ever to invade Taiwan, the anti-ship and antiaircraft systems could in theory be turned on Chinese military fleets. That could make the Japanese garrison a tempting target for China — and put Mr. Kinjo’s greenhouses in the line of fire. | 在石垣部署导弹是为了保护日本。但如果北京入侵台湾，这里的反舰系统和防空系统理论上可以用来对付中国的军舰。这可能促使中国将日本驻军作为目标——金城的温室也位于火力范围内。 |
| “I wonder if I can continue living here in safety,” Mr. Kinjo, 66, said as he sat in his spacious home, a scroll with the word “endurance” written in thick calligraphic ink on the wall behind him. | “我不知道还能不能继续安全地住在这里，”66岁的金城哲弘坐在宽敞的家中说。他身后的墙上挂着一幅卷轴，用厚重的笔法写着一个“忍”字。 |
| For now, few believe that China will act imminently on its long-held goal of unifying with Taiwan. Still, the rising tensions between Beijing and Washington — Japan’s top ally — over the fate of the democratically governed island increase the risks of military confrontation that could sweep in all three of the world’s largest economies. | 目前几乎没有人相信中国会立即采取行动，实现与台湾统一的长期目标。尽管如此，围绕着这个民主治理岛屿的命运，北京和日本头号盟友华盛顿之间的紧张关系不断加剧，这增加了军事对抗的风险，可能会波及世界上最大的三个经济体。 |
| The long-planned missile batteries on Ishigaki, part of a larger package of military upgrades to Japan’s remote southwestern islands, reflect a shift in Japanese views on China that has accelerated with the recent discord over Taiwan. | 石垣岛上筹备已久的导弹发射架，是日本对偏远西南岛屿进行军事升级的总体计划的一部分，反映出日本对中国看法的转变，这随着最近台湾问题上的不和谐而加速。 |
| Not long ago, Japan saw China primarily as an economic opportunity, even as tensions sometimes flared over territorial disputes, the legacy of World War II and trade issues. The idea that Beijing posed a serious threat to national security was largely a right-wing preoccupation. | 就在不久前，日本还主要将中国视为经济机遇，尽管两国关系有时会因领土争端、二战遗留问题和贸易问题而紧张。北京对国家安全构成严重威胁的想法在很大程度上是右翼人士的观念。 |
| But the calculus has changed. Across the political spectrum, Japanese politicians now express concern about China’s human rights violations in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. They worry about China’s dominance of the world’s supply chains. And they see a security challenge from a growing military power that is not only threatening Taiwan but also encroaching on the Senkakus — uninhabited islets, known as the Diaoyu in Chinese, administered by Japan but claimed by Beijing. | 但是现在看法已经改变。目前，日本各个政治派别的政治人士都对中国在香港和新疆侵犯人权的行为表示担忧。他们担心中国在全球供应链中的主导地位，还看到了来自一个不断增长的军事强国构成的安全挑战，这个强国不仅威胁着台湾，还在蚕食无人居住的尖阁列岛（中国称之为钓鱼岛）。该岛目前由日本管辖，但中国政府宣称拥有其主权。 |
| Over the last year, as the pandemic has stoked an assertive Chinese nationalism and the United States has intensified its competition with China, there has been “a huge perceptional change in Japanese society,” said Chisako Masuo, an assistant professor at Kyushu University who specializes in Sino-Japanese relations. | 九州大学研究中日关系的助理教授益尾知佐子说，过去一年里，随着疫情在中国激起坚定的民族主义情绪，美国加强了与中国的竞争，“日本社会发生了巨大的观念变化。” |
| “What is happening now is that people are trying to prepare for the worst situation, maybe not a war, but the possibility that economic stability may be affected by China in the long run,” Ms. Masuo said. | “现在的情况是，人们正在努力为最坏的情况做准备，也许不是战争，但从长远来看，经济稳定可能会受到中国的影响，”益尾知佐子说。 |
| The evolution in political views has been particularly noticeable on the issue of Taiwan, with which Japan has long shared cultural, economic and security interests, said Corey Wallace, an assistant professor at Kanagawa University in Yokohama who studies Japan’s foreign and security policy. | 横滨的神奈川大学研究日本外交和安全政策的助理教授科里·华莱士说，政治观点的演变在台湾问题上尤其明显，日本与台湾长期以来有着共同的文化、经济和安全利益。 |
| Standing up for the island — a Japanese colony for five decades — was long seen in Japan, especially among the left, as taboo and an impediment to better political and economic relations with mainland China. Beijing vociferously objects to any hint of support for a declaration of Taiwan independence. | 台湾有50年的日本殖民历史，日本人（尤其是左翼人士）一直将支持该岛视为禁忌，并将其视为与中国大陆改善政治和经济关系的障碍。北京强烈反对任何支持台湾独立的暗示。 |
| But as China has become more repressive at home and assertive abroad, there is a growing recognition in Japan of Taiwan as “a more positive and constructive expression of democratic values and development,” with its own “legitimate, separate society,” Mr. Wallace said. | 但华莱士说，随着中国对内更加专制，对外更加强硬，日本越来越认识到，台湾拥有自己“合法、独立的社会”，是“民主价值观和发展更具积极和建设性的表达”。 |
| Japan has expressed a sense of brewing crisis over Taiwan. The country’s annual defense white paper, published in July, included a section on the island for the first time, warning that growing tensions between Chinese and American forces could pose a serious risk to regional stability. | 日本已经表达了在台湾问题上的危机感。今年7月，日本发布了年度国防白皮书，其中第一次有了关于台湾的章节，其中警告称，中美两国军队之间日益紧张的关系可能对地区稳定构成严重威胁。 |
| Some Japanese policymakers fear that a conflict over Taiwan could provide China an opportunity to take the Senkakus or even the southernmost Okinawan islands. Beijing currently makes no claims on the archipelago, but it has in the past, and the issue of its sovereignty has been raised by Chinese academics and in state-run media. | 一些日本决策者担心，围绕台湾的冲突可能为中国提供机会，夺取尖阁列岛，甚至最南端的冲绳诸岛。北京目前没有对这个群岛提出主权要求，但过去曾提出过，中国学者和官方媒体也曾提出过该岛的主权问题。 |
| Japanese defense hawks have grown bolder in their long-stalled pursuit of revisions to the country’s pacifist Constitution, arguing that China’s actions could destabilize the region — a view encouraged by U.S. officials who have urged Japan to take a broader security role. | 日本防务鹰派人士在长期停滞的修改日本和平宪法工作中变得更加大胆，他们认为中国的行动可能会破坏该地区的稳定——这一观点受到美国官员的鼓励，他们敦促日本在安全方面发挥更广泛的作用。 |
| Early this month, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a security forum that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency,” and therefore an issue for the U.S.-Japan alliance. But it is unclear what actions Japan could take under current law if conflict broke out over Taiwan. | 本月初，日本前首相安倍晋三在一个安全论坛上表示，“台湾的紧急情况就是日本的紧急情况”，因此也就是美日同盟的问题。但目前还不清楚，如果围绕台湾问题爆发冲突，日本将根据现行法律采取何种行动。 |
| Japan is working to improve its military readiness within its constitutional mandate of self-defense. While officials have carefully avoided suggesting that their preparations are aimed at any one country, they have increased both military spending and the number of military exercises conducted with the United States and other allies. | 日本正努力在其宪法授权的自卫范围内提高其战备。尽管官员们小心翼翼地避免暗示其准备是针对任何国家的，但他们增加了军费开支，并增加了与美国和其他盟国军演的次数。 |
| Japan’s defense ministry requested sharp increases in its budget this year, in response to what it called a rapidly worsening security environment. Funds in a supplementary request made in November would be used to expedite preparations for the new missile deployments on Ishigaki. | 日本防卫省要求大幅增加今年的预算，以应对其所称的迅速恶化的安全环境。它在11月提出补充请求，其中资金将用于加快石垣导弹部署的准备工作。 |
| The front line is a familiar position for inhabitants of the Ryukyu Island chain, of which Ishigaki is part. | 琉球岛链的居民对于居住地成为战争前线并不陌生，石垣是该岛链的一部分。 |
| China and Japan spent centuries jostling for control of the archipelago, once an independent kingdom. During World War II, the islands endured some of the Pacific theater’s bloodiest infantry battles. Once U.S. forces arrived, they never left: The main island, Okinawa, continues to host a large American military installation. | 中国和日本花了几个世纪争夺这个群岛的控制权，它曾经是一个独立的王国。第二次世界大战期间，这些岛屿经历了太平洋战场上最血腥的步兵战斗。美军到达后就再也没有撤军，其主岛冲绳至今仍有一座大型美国军事设施。 |
| Ishigaki’s proximity to the Senkakus has long made it a destination for hawkish Japanese politicians hoping to burnish their national security credentials. The island is home to Japan’s largest Coast Guard office, which devotes significant resources to patrolling the Senkakus. | 石垣与尖阁列岛毗邻，因此，长期以来，希望提升自己的国家安全威信的日本鹰派政治人士都曾到访这里。日本最大的海岸警卫队办公室就坐落在这里，该办公室投入了大量资源巡逻尖阁列岛。 |
| But like most Japanese, people on Ishigaki long saw China more as a source of commerce than of danger. Its white sand beaches and rainbow-hued coral reefs drew cruise ships full of Chinese shoppers. The standoffs near the Senkakus were mostly a threat to the fishing industry. | 但像大多数日本人一样，石垣岛上的人们长期以来更多地将中国视为商业资源，而不是危险之源。白色的沙滩和五彩缤纷的珊瑚礁吸引了满载中国购物者的游船。尖阁诸岛附近的对峙主要是对渔业的威胁。 |
| The island has long been split over the missile deployment, but the growing plausibility of a Taiwan conflict has stoked existential fears. | 该岛在对待导弹部署问题上长期存在分歧，但台湾发生冲突的可能性越来越大，引发了人们对生存问题的担忧。 |
| Because of its alliance with the United States, “Japan is likely to get sucked into a conflict over Taiwan,” said Nobuo Nagahama, a local lawmaker who opposes the missile installation. | 由于日美的联盟关系，“日本很可能卷入一场围绕台湾的冲突，”反对部署导弹的地方议员长滨信夫（音）说。 |
| Missiles or no, comments like those made by Mr. Abe only increase the likelihood that China might target Ishigaki, he believes: “There are a lot of infrastructure projects that could potentially have a military use.” | 不管有没有导弹，安倍这样的言论只会增加中国把石垣作为目标的可能性，他认为：“有很多基础设施项目可能具有军事用途。” |
| Like many on Ishigaki, Chosho Kiyuna is torn by his competing worries for Taiwan and his own home. | 像石垣的许多人一样，喜友长诸（音）既担心台湾的事，也担心自己的家园。 |
| The islands have a close relationship. For decades, locals would travel by ferry to Taiwan to stock up on supplies. Mr. Kiyuna’s wife, Sachiko, is the daughter of Taiwanese immigrants who established the island’s pineapple canning industry. | 这两个岛之间有着密切的关系。几十年来，当地人会乘渡轮到台湾储备物资。喜友长诸的妻子幸子（音）是台湾移民的女儿，他们打造了岛上的菠萝罐头产业。 |
| But Mr. Kiyuna has also experienced the pain of living at the intersection of empires. | 但喜友长诸也经历了生活在帝国夹缝中的痛苦。 |
| After World War II, U.S. occupation forces in Okinawa pushed Mr. Kiyuna’s family and hundreds of others off their property. Many went to Ishigaki, where the Japanese authorities promised a fertile “land of opportunity.” Instead, they found a malarial jungle with rocky, volcanic soil that barely yielded to the plow. | 第二次世界大战后，美军在冲绳的占领军把喜友长诸的家人以及其他数以百计人赶出住所。许多人前往石垣，日本当局承诺那里是一块肥沃的“机会之地”。结果，他们发现那里是一篇疟疾肆虐的丛林，地面都是岩石和火山灰，几乎没法耕种。 |
| Mr. Kiyuna tried his hand at a variety of crops, planting sugar cane and vegetables before settling on mangoes. | 喜友长诸尝试了各种农作物，种植甘蔗和蔬菜，最后选择了芒果。 |
| Decades later, Mr. Kiyuna, 80, has retired from farming. He keeps the pickax he used in his fields as a souvenir of the hard labor that transformed Ishigaki into something close to the paradise he was promised. | 几十年后，80岁的喜友长诸先生从农场退休了。他保留着他在田间使用的鹤嘴锄，作为艰苦劳动的纪念，正是这种劳动把石垣变成了他曾被许诺的天堂。 |
| But “if there’s a war,” he said, “it will all be blown away.” | 但是“如果发生战争，”他说，“一切都会随风而去。” |
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