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| A growing body of preliminary research suggests the Covid vaccines used in most of the world offer almost no defense against becoming infected by the highly contagious Omicron variant. | 越来越多的初步研究表明，全球大部分地区接种的新冠疫苗都几乎无法抵御传染性极强的奥密克戎变异株的感染。 |
| All vaccines still seem to provide a significant degree of protection against serious illness from Omicron, which is the most crucial goal. But only the Pfizer and Moderna shots, when reinforced by a booster, appear to have initial success at stopping infections, and these vaccines are unavailable in most of the world. | 所有疫苗似乎仍能提供相当程度的保护，避免奥密克戎引起重症，这也是最关键的目标。但是，只有辉瑞和莫德纳的疫苗在接种加强针后，似乎对防止感染具有初步成效，而全球大部分地区并无法获得这两种疫苗。 |
| The other shots — including those from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and vaccines manufactured in China and Russia — do little to nothing to stop the spread of Omicron, early research shows. And because most countries have built their inoculation programs around these vaccines, the gap could have a profound impact on the course of the pandemic. | 早期研究表明，其他疫苗——包括阿斯利康、强生以及中国和俄罗斯生产的疫苗——基本难以阻止奥密克戎的传播。而由于大多数国家的接种计划都以这些疫苗为基础，效力上的差距可能会对疫情进程产生深远影响。 |
| A global surge of infections in a world where billions of people remain unvaccinated not only threatens the health of vulnerable individuals but also increases the opportunity for the emergence of yet more variants. The disparity in the ability of countries to weather the pandemic will almost certainly deepen. And the news about limited vaccine efficacy against Omicron infection could depress demand for vaccination throughout the developing world, where many people are already hesitant or preoccupied with other health problems. | 在全球仍有数十亿人未接种疫苗的情况下，各地感染的激增不仅威胁到脆弱个体的健康，也更有可能导致更多病毒变异株出现。各国抵御疫情能力的差距几乎肯定会加大。疫苗对奥密克戎感染防御效果有限的信息可能会抑制发展中国家的疫苗需求，这些国家的许多民众已经对接种感到犹豫，或是顾虑其他健康问题。 |
| Most evidence so far is based on laboratory experiments, which do not capture the full range of the body’s immune response, and not from tracking the effect on real-world populations. The results are striking, however. | 到目前为止，大部分证据都基于实验室实验，并不能全面掌握人体的免疫反应，也无法追踪疫苗对现实中世界人群的影响。然而结果依然令人震惊。 |
| The Pfizer and Moderna shots use the new mRNA technology, which has consistently offered the best protection against infection with every variant. All of the other vaccines are based on older methods of triggering an immune response. | 辉瑞和莫德纳疫苗使用了新的mRNA技术，该技术对每种变异株感染的保护效果都是最好的。其他所有疫苗采用的都是基于触发免疫反应的老办法。 |
| The Chinese vaccines Sinopharm and Sinovac — which make up almost half of all shots delivered globally — offer almost zero protection from Omicron infection. The great majority of people in China have received these shots, which are also widely used in low-and middle-income countries such as Mexico and Brazil. | 中国的国药和科兴疫苗——几乎占到全球疫苗交付量的一半——对奥密克戎感染的保护基本为零。绝大部分中国民众都接种了这两种疫苗，它们在墨西哥、巴西等中低收入国家也被广泛使用。 |
| A preliminary effectiveness study in Britain found that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine showed no ability to stop Omicron infection six months after vaccination. Ninety percent of vaccinated people in India received this shot, under the brand name Covishield; it has also been widely used across much of sub-Saharan Africa, where Covax, the global Covid vaccine program, has distributed 67 million doses of it to 44 countries. | 英国的一项初步有效性研究发现，牛津–阿斯利康疫苗在接种六个月后已无法防止感染奥密克戎。在印度，90%的接种者都是接种这种疫苗（其商标名为“Covishield”）；它也被广泛应用于撒哈拉以南非洲的大部分地区，全球新冠疫苗计划Covax已向那里的44个国家分发了6700万剂。 |
| Researchers predict that Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, which is also being used in Africa and Latin America, will show similarly dismal rates of protection against Omicron. | 研究人员预测，同样在非洲和拉丁美洲使用的俄罗斯Sputnik疫苗对奥密克戎的防护率同样会很低。 |
| Demand for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine had been surging in Africa, because its single-shot delivery regimen makes it easy to deliver in low-resource settings. But it too has shown a negligible ability to block Omicron infection. | 在非洲，对强生疫苗的需求一直在上升，因其单针接种的方式，在资源匮乏的环境下更容易推广普及。但它防止感染奥密克戎的能力也低到可以忽略不计。 |
| Antibodies are the first line of defense induced by vaccines. But the shots also stimulate the growth of T cells, and preliminary studies suggest that these T cells still recognize the Omicron variant, which is important in preventing severe disease. | 疫苗制造的第一道防线就是抗体。但疫苗也会刺激T细胞生长，初步研究表明，这些T细胞仍可以识别奥密克戎变异株，这对预防重症能起到重要作用。 |
| “What you lose first is protection against asymptomatic mild infection, what you retain much better is protection against severe disease and death,” said John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York. He called it “a silver lining” that Omicron so far appears less lethal than the Delta variant. | “最先丧失的是对无症状轻度感染的保护，更能得到保留的效力是对重症和死亡的保护，”纽约威尔·康奈尔医学院的病毒学家约翰·摩尔说。到目前为止，奥密克戎的致命程度似乎不如德尔塔变异株，他称之为“一线希望”。 |
| But this protection will not be enough to prevent Omicron from causing global disruption, said J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Global Health Policy Center at the Center for International and Strategic Studies. | 但战略与国际研究中心全球卫生政策中心主任J·史蒂芬·莫里森表示，这种保护并不足以阻止奥密克戎在全球范围内造成破坏。 |
| “The sheer scale of infection will overwhelm health systems, simply because the denominator will be potentially so big,” he said. “If you have a burst of infection worldwide, a shock, what does the world look like on the other side of it? Is it, ‘The war is over,’ or, ‘The war has just entered another phase’? We haven’t begun thinking about any of that.” | “光是感染规模就将使卫生系统不堪重负，原因很简单，潜在的感染数字太大了，”他说。“如果全世界都暴发感染，出现一大波疫情，那之后的世界会怎样？是‘战争结束了’，还是‘战争进入了新阶段’？我们都还没有开始考虑这些问题。” |
| People with breakthrough cases may experience only asymptomatic infection or mild illness, but they can pass the virus to unvaccinated people, who could fall more severely ill, and become a source of new variants. | 出现突破性感染的人可能只是无症状感染或有轻微病症，但他们会将病毒传染给未接种疫苗的人，后者的病情可能更加严重，并成为新变异株的来源。 |
| Dr. Seth Berkley, the chief executive of Gavi, the global vaccine alliance, said that more data was needed before drawing conclusions about vaccines’ effectiveness against Omicron — and that accelerated vaccination should continue to be the focus of pandemic response. | 全球疫苗免疫联盟的首席执行官塞思·伯克利博士表示，需要更多数据才能得出疫苗对奥密克戎的有效性的结论——而加紧接种疫苗依然应是疫情应对的重中之重。 |
| Preliminary data from South Africa suggest that with Omicron, there is a much higher chance of people who already had Covid getting reinfected than there was with the original virus and previous variants. But some public health experts say they believe that countries that have already been through brutal waves of Covid, such as Brazil and India, may have a buffer against Omicron, and vaccination after infection produces high antibody levels. | 南非的初步数据表明，对比原始病毒和此前的变异株，曾感染过新冠的人再次感染奥密克戎的概率要高得多。但一些公共卫生专家表示，他们认为已经经历过严重新冠疫情的国家，如巴西和印度，或许能得到防御奥密克戎的缓冲，感染后再接种疫苗也能产生高抗体水平。 |
| “The combination of vaccination and exposure to the virus seems to be stronger than only having the vaccine,” said Ramanan Laxminarayan, an epidemiologist. India, he noted, has an adult vaccination rate of only about 40 percent but 90 percent exposure to the virus in some areas. | “疫苗接种再加上接触病毒似乎比仅仅接种疫苗更有效，”流行病学家拉马纳·拉克西米纳拉扬表示。他指出，印度的成人疫苗接种率只有40%左右，但在某些地区，有90%的人都接触过病毒。 |
| “Without a doubt Omicron is going to flood through India,” he said. “But hopefully India is protected to some extent because of vaccination and exposure.” | “毫无疑问，奥密克戎将席卷印度，”他说。“但因为疫苗接种和接触病毒，希望印度能得到一定程度的保护。” |
| China does not have this layer of protection to back up its weak vaccines. Because of China’s aggressive efforts to stop spread of the virus within its borders, relatively few people have previous exposure. Only an estimated 7 percent of people in Wuhan, where the pandemic began, were infected. | 中国没有这一层的保护来弥补其疫苗的薄弱效力。因为中国大力阻止病毒在境内传播，接触过病毒的人群相对较少。据估计，在疫情开始的武汉，只有7%的人口曾被感染。 |
| Much of Latin America has relied on the Chinese and Russian vaccines, and on AstraZeneca. Mario Rosemblatt, a professor of immunology at the University of Chile, said that more than 90 percent of Chileans had had two doses of one vaccine, but the great majority of these were Coronavac, the Sinovac shot. High vaccination coverage combined with early reports that Omicron does not cause serious illness is leading to a false sense of security in the country, he said. | 拉丁美洲的许多国家都依赖中国和俄罗斯的疫苗，以及阿斯利康疫苗。智利大学的免疫学教授马里奥·罗森布拉特表示，超过90%的智利人都接种了其中一种疫苗的两剂，但大部分人打的都是科兴疫苗。他说，高接种率再加上早期报告称奥密克戎不会导致重症，令该国民众有了一种错误的安全感。 |
| “We have to get people to understand that it doesn’t work like that: If you get high transmissibility you’re going to have the health system saturated because the number of people getting ill will be higher,” he said. | “我们必须让民众明白，事实并非如此：如果传播率高，就会导致医疗系统饱和，因为患病的人会更多，”他说。 |
| Brazil has recommended that all vaccinated people get a third dose, and it started using Pfizer’s vaccine for all boosters, but only 40 percent of the vaccinated have turned up to get the extra shot. Dr. Amilcar Tanuri, a virologist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said with cautious optimism that the high levels of previous Covid exposure might blunt Omicron’s impact but noted that the most vulnerable Brazilians, vaccinated first, got Coronavac, and tens of millions more were given AstraZeneca. | 巴西建议所有疫苗接种者注射第三针，并开始把辉瑞疫苗作为所有加强针，但只有40%的疫苗接种者接受了加强针。里约热内卢联邦大学的病毒学家阿米尔卡·塔努里带着谨慎乐观的态度表示，之前的大规模新冠病毒接触可能削弱奥密克戎的影响，但他指出，抵抗力最弱的巴西人最先接种了疫苗，他们打的是科兴，而后的数千万人打的是阿斯利康。 |
| Mr. Morrison called Omicron’s ability to evade the protection of vaccination “a massive setback” for low- and middle-income countries, where, far from any discussion of boosters, the focus is still on delivering first shots. | 莫里森称，奥密克戎逃避疫苗保护的能力，对中低收入国家来说是“一次巨大的挫败”，这些国家根本还不到打加强针的时候，重点仍是第一剂疫苗的接种。 |
| “The world gets cleaved into two parts, right?” he said. “It’s those that have a quick path toward boosters versus those who have had very limited progress and suddenly they’re subject to this new lashing.” | “世界被一分为二了，不是吗？”他说。“变成了很快能打上加强针的人，以及那些接种进度极其有限而又突然遭受新打击的人。” |
| Just 13 percent of people in Africa have received at least one dose of a Covid vaccine. | 在非洲，只有13%的人至少接种了一剂新冠疫苗。 |
| Dr. Laxminarayan said the Indian government, to which he is an occasional adviser, was considering booster shots, but the Delta variant still poses a significant threat in India, and two vaccine doses offers protection against Delta. That presents the government with a difficult choice between focusing on getting people who remain unvaccinated, or only partly vaccinated, to two doses, or trying to get boosters to older people and those with high-risk medical conditions as protection against Omicron. | 不时出任政府顾问的拉克西米纳拉扬表示，印度政府正在考虑接种加强针，但德尔塔变异株在印度仍然构成重大威胁，两剂疫苗能够针对德尔塔提供保护。这让政府面临一个艰难的选择，是将重点放在给未接种者或未完全接种者打完两剂疫苗，还是先努力给老年人和高风险疾病患者接种加强针，保护他们不受奥密克戎影响。 |
| The news that the non-mRNA vaccines offer little protection against infection from Omicron may further erode demand for shots in countries already struggling to build demand, Mr. Morrison said. | 莫里森表示，非mRNA疫苗对奥密克戎感染几乎没有保护作用的消息，可能在原本就难以建立疫苗需求的国家进一步削弱这种需求。 |
| “This challenges the whole value of vaccines,” he said. “If you’re so far behind and then you suffer this, it’s going to feed anti-vaccine sentiment and weaken confidence.” | “这会损害疫苗的整体价值，”他说。“如果在接种方面远远落后，又遭遇这样的打击，将会助长反疫苗的情绪，削弱民众对疫苗的信心。” |
| Tolbert Nyenswah, a senior researcher with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the emerging threat to countries in the global south that have relied on non-mRNA vaccines was an indictment of wealthy countries’ failure to share that technology or help build production points in low- and middle-income countries. | 约翰斯·霍普金斯大学布隆伯格公共卫生学院高级研究员托尔伯特·耶斯瓦表示，依赖非mRNA疫苗的南半球国家所面临的新威胁是对富裕国家的控诉，它们未能分享该技术，或是帮助中低收入国家建立疫苗生产设施。 |
| As a consequence, dangerous variants will continue to emerge from areas with low vaccination coverage and will prolong the pandemic, predicted Dr. Nyenswah, who was deputy minister of health in Liberia through that country’s worst Ebola outbreak. | 因此，曾在利比亚的埃博拉疫情最为严重时担任该国卫生部副部长的耶斯瓦预测，危险的变异株将继续出现在疫苗覆盖率低的地方，并将这场疫情延长下去。 |
| Dr. Berkley at Gavi said it would be a serious mistake for countries to ease up on their vaccination push or to assume that only mRNA vaccines are worth distributing. | 全球疫苗免疫联盟的伯克利表示，如果各国放松疫苗接种工作，或是认为只有mRNA疫苗值得推广，将是一个严重的错误。 |
| “We may be seeing a situation where countries say, ‘If developed countries don’t want these vaccines, then we don’t want these vaccines,’” he said. “That, of course, would be the wrong interpretation, if it turns out that these vaccines prevent against severe disease and death.” | “我们可能会看到一些国家认为，‘如果发达国家不要这些疫苗，那我们也不要，’”他说。“如果事实证明这些疫苗能够预防重症和死亡，那这当然会是错误的想法。” |
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