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变种毒株迅速传播,中国防疫模式还能成功吗?
After Months as a Covid Success Story, China Tries to Tame Delta

来源:纽约时报    2021-08-06 09:35



        In the battle against the coronavirus, few places seemed as confident of victory as China.
        在抗击新冠病毒的斗争中,很少有地方像中国一样对胜利充满信心。
        The country of 1.4 billion people had eradicated the virus so quickly that it was one of the first in the world to open up in spring last year. People removed their masks and gathered for pool parties. In recent months, the government has contended with sporadic outbreaks in various provinces, but stamped them out swiftly by mobilizing thousands of people to test and trace infections.
        这个有14亿人口的国家如此迅速地消灭了病毒,在去年春天成为世界上最早重新开放的国家之一。人们摘下口罩,聚集在一起参加泳池派对。近几个月来,政府一直在应对各省的零星暴发,但通过动员成千上万人进行核酸检测和密接追踪,总能迅速将其消灭。
        That model is now looking increasingly fragile.
        这种模式现在看起来越来越脆弱。
        China is facing its biggest challenge since the virus first erupted in the Chinese city of Wuhan last year: the highly transmissible Delta variant that is rapidly spreading throughout the country. Chinese officials have acknowledged that curbing this outbreak will be much harder than the others, owing to the fast and asymptomatic spread of the variant.
        中国正面临着自去年武汉首次病毒暴发以来的最大的挑战:高度传染性的德尔塔变异毒株正在全国迅速传播。中国官员承认,由于该变种的传播速度快且且很多感染者无症状,遏制此次疫情的暴发将比更为困难。
        These new outbreaks — happening in cities such as Nanjing, Wuhan, Yangzhou and Zhangjiajie — are showcasing the limitations of China’s zero-tolerance approach to Covid. They may also undermine the ruling Communist Party’s argument that its authoritarian style has been an unquestionable success in the pandemic.
        这些新的疫情——发生在南京、武汉、扬州和张家界等城市——展示了中国对新冠病毒零容忍办法的局限性。它们还可能削弱执政的共产党的论调,即其威权主义风格在疫情中取得了无可置疑的成功。
        Although the government had to stamp out a Delta flare-up in June in Guangdong Province, authorities this time are dealing with a much larger spread. Since the current Delta outbreak started on July 21, the number of cases has risen to 483, more than the sum total of infections from the first five months of the year. By Tuesday afternoon, the virus had spread to 15 of the 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China.
        尽管政府6月刚在广东消除了一次的德尔塔毒株暴发,但当局这次要应对的是更大规模的传播。自目前的德尔塔毒株疫情于7月21日开始以来,病例数已上升至483例,超过了今年前五个月的感染病例总和。截至周二下午,在中国的31个省和自治区中,该病毒已传播至15个。
        “Once it reaches so many provinces, it’s very hard to mitigate,” said Chen Xi, an associate professor of public health at Yale University. “I think this would be surprising and shocking to the rest of the world. Such a powerful government has been breached by Delta. This will be a very important lesson — we cannot let our guard down.”
        “一旦蔓延到这么多省份,就很难缓解,”耶鲁大学公共卫生副教授陈希说。“我认为这会让世界其他地方感到惊讶和震惊。这样一个强大的政府已经被德尔塔攻破。这将是一个非常重要的教训——我们不能放松警惕。”
        Last week, Sun Chunlan, a vice premier of China, blamed “ideological laxity” for the Delta outbreaks and urged officials to step up their prevention efforts. “We cannot relax for a moment,” Ms. Sun said.
        上周,中国副总理孙春兰将德尔塔毒株疫情归咎于“思想上的松懈”,并敦促官员加强预防工作。孙春兰说:“一刻都不能放松。”
        Some public health experts in the country say it is time for China to rethink its Covid strategy. In a recent essay, Zhang Wenhong, who advises the Chinese government on dealing with Covid-19, floated the idea of following a model similar to that of Israel and Britain, in which vaccination rates are high and people are willing to live with infections.
        中国的一些公共卫生专家表示,现在是中国重新考虑其新冠战略的时候了。在最近的一篇文章中,为中国政府处理新冠病毒提供建议的张文宏提出了遵循类似于以色列和英国模式的想法,在这些模式下,疫苗接种率很高,人们愿意与病毒共存。
        For now, China has stuck to the same strict playbook. Across the country, the government has instructed people not to travel unless necessary. In the cities of Zhangjiajie and Zhuzhou, 5.4 million people have been barred from leaving their homes. Roughly 13 million residents in the city of Zhengzhou, the site of deadly floods in July, had to stand in line for virus testing starting last weekend.
        目前,中国坚持与此前一样严格的战术。在全国范围内,政府已指示人们非必要不旅行。在张家界市和株洲市,有540万人被禁止离家。在7月发生了致命洪水、人口约1300万的郑州,民众从上周末开始,不得不排队接受核酸检测。
        In Nanjing, where the recent Delta cases first appeared, millions of residents have had to participate in four rounds of testing.
        在这波疫情最早出现病例的南京,数百万民众不得不参加四轮核酸检测。
        “It’s just torturing the masses,” said Jiang Ruoling, a resident in Nanjing, who has been tested four times in the last three weeks. Ms. Jiang, who works in real estate, said she understood the need for testing, but was still critical of officials for failing to control the latest outbreak. “The leaders are actually wasting resources and everyone’s time,” she said.
        “就是折腾群众 ,”南京居民江若龄(音)说,她在过去三周内接受了四次检测。在房地产行业工作的江若龄说,她理解检测的必要性,但仍然批评官员未能控制最新的疫情。她说:“其实就是领导在浪费资源又浪费大家时间。”
        Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, said China’s “containment-based” strategy would not work in the long run, particularly as new variants continue to emerge. “It will become extremely costly to sustain such an approach,” he said.
        美国外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)全球卫生高级研究员黄严忠表示,中国的“以遏制为基础”的战略从长远来看是行不通的,尤其是在新的变种不断出现的情况下。他说:“维持这种方法的成本将变得非常高。”
        And yet China appears unwilling to take any chances. In Wuhan, the authorities on Tuesday started testing all 12 million residents after only three cases of the Delta variant were discovered. The cities of Sanmenxia and Zhuhai have also begun mass testing.  In Beijing, where there are five infections, train service from 23 cities has been canceled.
        然而中国似乎不愿意冒险。在武汉,在仅发现三例德尔塔变体病例后,当局于周二开始对所有1200万居民进行检测。三门峡和珠海等城市也开始了大规模检测。在有五例感染病例的北京,23个城市的进京火车票已经停售。
        The current Delta cases have been linked to a flight from Moscow that landed in Nanjing on July 10. Seven passengers on the flight were infected with the variant. On July 20, nine airport cleaners tested positive. Their infections spread quickly among people who entered the airport, a major transportation hub.
        目前的德尔塔病例与7月10日从莫斯科起飞、降落南京的航班有关。该航班上的七名乘客感染了该变种。7月20日,九名机场清洁工检测呈阳性。他们感染的病毒在进入这个主要交通枢纽机场的人群中迅速传播。
        Jennifer Huang Bouey, a senior China policy expert and an epidemiologist at the RAND Corporation, said that even with strict controls, it may not be realistic for officials in China to get these latest cases down to zero. “I think they may have to prepare people for a higher tolerance of Covid,” Dr. Huang said.
        兰德公司(RAND Corporation)资深对华政策专家、流行病学家黃志环表示,即使采取严格控制,中国官员将这些最新病例降至零可能也不现实。黃博士说:“我认为他们可能必须让人们做好准备,更加容忍新冠。”
        Part of the challenge for Beijing is that the Chinese-made vaccines being used to immunize the country are not as effective against the Delta variant as other shots. The government says it has already administered about 1.69 billion doses. Health officials are now considering giving booster shots to people with compromised immune systems as well as older citizens.
        北京面临的部分挑战是,用来为该国免疫的国产疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株的效果不如其他疫苗。政府表示已经接种了大约16.9亿剂。卫生官员现在正在考虑给免疫系统受损的人和老年人注射加强针。
        Zhong Nanshan, a top epidemiologist, said China’s vaccines are 100 percent protective against severe disease caused by Delta, and 63.2 percent effective against asymptomatic cases. He said he was confident that the latest outbreak would be controlled in about 10 to 14 days, during which officials hope to carry out extensive contact tracing in Nanjing and several other cities in Jiangsu Province.
        高级流行病学家钟南山表示,中国的疫苗对由德尔塔毒株引起的重症有100%的保护作用,对无症状病例的有效率为63.2%。他表示,有信心在10至14天内控制住这次新疫情,在此期间,官员希望在南京和江苏省其他几个城市进行广泛的密接追踪。
        Three days before the airport cleaners in Nanjing tested positive, a mother and daughter and a 12-year-old girl flew to Zhangjiajie after transiting for two hours in Nanjing. In Zhangjiajie, one of China’s most popular tourism destinations, all three went to see “The Charm of Xiangxi,” a song-and-dance performance by ethnic minorities. Roughly 2,000 people were packed into the theater for the show.
        在南京机场清洁工检测呈阳性的三天前,一对母女和一名12岁女孩在南京转机逗留两小时后飞往张家界。张家界是中国最受欢迎的旅游胜地之一,三人都去看了少数民族歌舞表演《魅力湘西》。大约有2000人挤在剧院观看演出。
        Three other tourists from Zhangjiajie later traveled to the central city of Changde, taking a river cruise with dozens of other people. About 27 infections in at least six places have been linked to the boat ride.
        有三名游客离开张家界后前往中部城市常德,在一条河上与其他数十人一起乘坐游船。至少有六个地方的大约27起感染与乘船有关。
        Cases have also spread in Yangzhou among “chess and card” rooms — poorly ventilated spaces where many older patrons gather to play mahjong, chess and cards. Local officials are offering rewards of several thousand renminbi to whistle-blowers who find and report on people who have been in these rooms.
        病例也在扬州的棋牌室传播——许多年长的客人聚集在通风不良的空间里打麻将、下棋和打牌。对于发现并举报曾进入这些房间者的举报人,地方官员提供数千元人民币的奖励。
        “The situation has not yet bottomed out,” Wu Zhenglong, the governor of Jiangsu Province, said at a news conference on Sunday. “The prevention and control situation is severe and complicated.”
        “情况尚未见底,”江苏省省长吴政隆在周日的新闻发布会上说。“防控形势十分严峻复杂。”
        Han Xiaoyi, a 23-year-old resident in Nanjing, said she was furious at the way the government had initially handled the Delta outbreak in her city. Officials have allowed people to continue going to work in crowded subways and buses, she said.
        23岁的南京居民韩晓怡(音)说,她对政府最初处理南京德尔塔毒株疫情的方式感到愤怒。她说,官员们允许人们继续在拥挤的地铁和公共汽车上通勤。
        Ms. Han, who works in sales, has had to take time off to stand in line for hours to get tested four times in recent days. “When it started, I felt really depressed because at first, it felt like the pandemic was far away from me,” she said. “Then suddenly, it felt like it was back in my midst.”
        从事销售工作的韩晓怡最近几天不得不请假排队几个小时接受四次检测。“刚开始那时候确实很绝望,因为一开始觉得疫情离我很远,”她说。“突然感觉就在身边。”
        Correction: An earlier version of this article described incorrectly the status of train service to Beijing. Train service from 23 cities has been canceled, not all of train service.
        更正:本文稍早前的版本误称“进出首都的所有火车班次都已取消”,应为“23个城市的进京火车票已经停售”,并非所有火车班次。特此更正。   
        
        
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