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| BEIJING — After a year of leading the global economy out of the pandemic slump, China’s growth is now starting to level off, as the world tries to digest whether the country’s recovery will continue or peter out. |
| 在带领全球经济走出大流行低迷一年后，中国目前的增长正在降温，与此同时，全世界也在试图弄清楚该国的复苏是会持续下去，还是逐渐结束。 |
| The signs are mixed, with consumers and companies showing signs of both weakness and strength. The rising cost of raw materials is eating into the profits of factories and retailers, while exports remain strong. People are shopping more, but small businesses are suffering. And the ongoing uncertainty of the pandemic weighs over it all. |
| 表现出来的迹象好坏参半，消费者和公司既表现疲软，也出现了强劲的迹象。原材料成本的上涨正在蚕食工厂和零售商的利润，同时出口仍保持强劲。人们消费更多，但小企业遭遇困难。尚未结束的大流行带来的不确定性也为一切带来了压力。 |
| “It is unclear whether such a strong rebound in China and around the world can sustain itself in 2022,” said Zhu Ning, deputy dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance. |
| “尚不清楚中国和世界各地这么强劲的回弹能否持续到2022年，”上海高级金融学院副院长朱宁说。 |
| China reported on Thursday that its economy grew 7.9 percent from April through June, compared to the same period last year, falling short of estimates. Although that pace is still stronger than many other countries, it is markedly slower than the 18.3 percent leap the economy made in the first three months of the year as it bounced back from lockdowns a year earlier. |
| 中国周四报告称，与去年同期相比，其经济从4月到6月增长了7.9%，增速不及预期。虽然这一速度仍然高于许多国家，但明显低于今年前三个月经济18.3%的飞跃，当时中国经济从一年前的封锁中恢复了过来。 |
| Economists cautioned that China’s actual economy is not quite as strong as the numbers released on Thursday might suggest. Inflation means that some of the statistics, like retail sales in June, overstate what is actually happening. Rising prices also mean that the Chinese economy’s performance in the spring might not be sustainable. |
| 经济学家提醒，中国的实际经济可能不及周四公布的数据暗示的那样强劲。通货膨胀意味着一些数据，例如6月的零售数据夸大了目前的情况。上涨的价格也意味着中国经济在春季的表现可能不可持续。 |
| China’s ultimate trajectory will be closely watched by the world. If China’s economy further slows, it could drag down the rest of the global economy. Many countries now depend on Chinese factories and consumers. If China continues to chug along, it could portend a sustained recovery for the United States and other nations now bouncing back from their pandemic lows. |
| 世界将密切关注中国最终的经济轨迹。如果中国经济进一步放缓，可能会拖慢全球经济。许多国家如今依赖中国工厂和消费者。如果中国继续慢速增长，可能意味着如今正从大流行低谷回弹的美国及其他国家将持续复苏。 |
| The Chinese government has sent a series of recent signals that economic growth might be in trouble. Premier Li Keqiang has held three high-profile meetings just in the past week on the economy’s health and issued statements after each of them, ordering a blizzard of measures to sustain growth. |
| 中国政府近期发出了一系列该国经济可能遭遇困难的信号。仅在过去一周，李克强总理就就该国经济的健康发展举行了三次高级别会议，并在每次会议后发布公告，要求采取一系列措施，以保持经济增长。 |
| The most important of these measures was a policy shift by the central bank. China’s central bank moved to help small businesses get loans; starting on Thursday commercial banks can keep somewhat smaller cash reserves. In theory, that frees the banks to lend more, which could stimulate business investments and consumer spending. |
| 这些措施中最重要的是央行的政策转变。中国央行开始帮助小企业获得贷款；从周四开始，商业银行可以小幅减少现金储备。从理论上讲，这将使银行能够发放更多贷款，从而刺激企业投资和消费者支出。 |
| But looming over the country’s economy is an accumulated mountain of corporate and household debt. Beijing has begun tolerating some bond defaults, and has hinted lately at the possibility that it might not help some state-owned enterprises pay their debts in full. |
| 但笼罩在该国经济上方的是堆积如山的企业和家庭债务。北京已经开始容忍一些债券违约，并在最近暗示，它可能不会帮助一些国有企业全额偿还债务。 |
| China Beige Book, a quarterly survey of businesses across China, has found in recent weeks that many borrowers, especially retailers, have become cautious about taking out loans. Companies fear that they might not be able to repay additional loans. |
| 面向中国各地企业的季度调查《中国褐皮书》发现，最近几周，许多借款人——尤其是零售商——对贷款变得谨慎起来。这些公司担心它们可能无法偿还额外的贷款。 |
| The latest data may signal the limits of China’s post-pandemic recovery. |
| 这些最新数据可能显示出中国疫情后复苏的局限。 |
| “China had a very fast pace of recovery over the past year — it’s going to be hard to maintain that pace,” said David Malpass, the president of the World Bank, during a news conference right before the latest data was released. |
| “过去一年，中国复苏的速度非常快——要保持这一速度是很难的，”世界银行(World Bank)行长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)在中国经济数据公布前的一场新闻发布会上说。 |
| Barclays Bank said in a research note that China seems to have settled into a new annual growth range of 5 to 5.5 percent. While considerably better than the growth in most Western countries, it is slower than the 6 to 6.5 percent growth China saw before the pandemic. |
| 巴克莱银行(Barclays Bank)在一份研究纪要中表示，中国似乎已经适应了5%至5.5%的新的年增长率区间。这一增速虽然高于大多数西方国家，但低于疫情前中国6%至6.5%的增速。 |
| “At home, the economic recovery is unbalanced,” said Liu Aihua, the spokeswoman of China’s National Bureau of Statistics. “More efforts are needed to consolidate the foundation for the steady recovery of development.” |
| “国内经济恢复不均衡，”中国国家统计局发言人刘爱华说。“巩固稳定恢复发展的基础仍需努力。” |
| Some of the problems Chinese businesses face are common across the world. Globally, commodities like iron ore, copper and oil have become more expensive over the past year, as have industrial materials like steel. |
| 中国企业面临的一些问题是全世界普遍都有的。在全球范围内，如铁矿石、铜和石油等大宗商品在过去一年变得越来越贵，像钢铁这样的工业材料也是如此。 |
| For Song Liyun, a seller of stoves and range hoods in Jinan, an eastern Chinese city, the rise in global steel costs has meant a 30 to 40 percent jump in wholesale prices, much of which she has had to absorb. “The cost of materials has been rising, but the price we offer to customers can barely increase,” she said. |
| 对中国东部城市济南的炉灶和油烟机销售商宋立云来说，全球钢铁成本上升，意味着批发价格暴涨了30%到40%，而她不得不自行消化其中的大部分。“材料费都涨了，但我们卖给客人的价格上不去，”她说。 |
| The survival of small businesses now has an even greater bearing on how China can weather the pandemic and keep people employed. More than 100 million people work in retail and wholesale companies. |
| 如今，小企业的生死存亡对中国能否平稳度过疫情、保障人民就业的影响更加重大。虽然许多夫妻店面临着日益激烈的竞争，特别是越来越多的消费者选择网购，但仍有超过一亿人在零售和批发企业工作。 |
| Retail sales were up 12.1 percent in June from a year earlier, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Most economists had expected retail sales to be weak that month. Car sales had fallen sharply, and new Covid-19 outbreaks in Guangdong had triggered lockdowns of large neighborhoods and restrictions on social gatherings and travel. Ms. Liu, the statistics bureau spokeswoman, said a surge in online spending helped retail sales, as Chinese consumers stocked up on home electronics. |
| 中国国家统计局表示，6月的零售数字与去年同期相比上升了12.1%。大多数经济学家预计零售数字在6月会出现疲软。汽车销量大幅下滑，广东新出现的新冠疫情暴发也导致大型社区遭到封锁，人们聚会和出行受限。但随着中国消费者采购家用电器，线上支出的激增挽救了零售数字。 |
| But the increase in retail sales could also have been the result of rising prices, which can make economic activity look substantial even when it may not be growing much. The broadest measure of prices in the Chinese economy surged 5.3 percent in April through June compared to the same period last year, according to calculations by CEIC Data, an economic data provider. It was the biggest jump in almost a decade, powered by higher global prices for raw materials. |
| 但零售数字的增加也可能是价格上涨导致的。即使在经济可能没有多少增长的时候，价格上涨也可能会让经济活动看起来很多。经济数据提供商司尔亚司数据(CEIC Data)的计算显示，中国经济对价格最宽松的衡量标准第二季度与去年同期相比增长了5.3%。这是近十年来最大的跃升，驱动力是全球原材料的更高价格。 |
| Retail sales would also have been hit by a slowdown in tourism and other service industries in recent weeks. |
| 零售也可能受到近几周旅游业及服务业放缓的打击。 |
| Passenger rail travel, including the bullet trains that are now China’s dominant form of intercity travel, plunged 19.9 percent in June compared to the same month in 2019, before the pandemic. By contrast, passenger rail traffic had only been down 4.5 percent in May from two years earlier. |
| 今年6月，包括目前的城际出行主要形式高铁在内，铁路客运出行比疫情前的2019年同月下降了19.9%。相较之下，5月的铁路客运流量仅比两年前下降了4.5%。 |
| The domestic travel sector’s weakness is visible in Qufu, the hometown of Confucius, 100 miles south of Jinan. Few tourists walked the streets on Sunday and Monday, and many stores were empty. |
| 在济南以南100英里的的孔子故里曲阜，国内旅游的疲软显而易见。周日和周一，这里街头的游客很少，许多商店都空无一人。 |
| Business owners in the town said that they had only half as many tourists as before the pandemic. |
| 城里的商家都表示，他们现在的游客数量只有疫情前的一半。 |
| “It’s not easy for anyone now,” said Xiao Weijun, the owner of a cheap eatery near the temple where Confucius’ house stood 2,500 years ago. “I feel that our lives won’t be able to recover in the next year or two.” |
| “现在谁都不容易，”小吃店的老板肖维军（音）说，他的店铺就在2500年前孔子故居所在的庙宇附近。“感觉我们的生活在一两年内都不可能恢复过来。” |
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