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无法实现“零感染”,各国如何学习与病毒共存?
How Nations Are Learning to ‘Let It Go’ and Live With Covid

来源:纽约时报    2021-07-22 04:54



        SINGAPORE — England has removed nearly all coronavirus restrictions. Germany is allowing vaccinated people to travel without quarantines. Outdoor mask mandates are mostly gone in Italy. Shopping malls remain open in Singapore.
        新加坡——英国已经取消了几乎所有的新冠病毒限制措施。德国允许接种疫苗的人出行无需隔离。意大利户外佩戴口罩的规定大多已经取消。新加坡的购物中心保持营业。
        Eighteen months after the coronavirus first emerged, governments in Asia, Europe and the Americas are encouraging people to return to their daily rhythms and transition to a new normal in which subways, offices, restaurants and airports are once again full. Increasingly, the mantra is the same: We have to learn to live with the virus.
        在新冠疫情首次出现的18个月后,亚洲、欧洲和美洲的政府正在鼓励人们回归日常节奏,并过渡到新的常态,地铁、办公室、餐厅和机场再次人满为患。人们的信念越来越一致:我们必须学会与病毒共存。
        Yet scientists warn that the pandemic exit strategies may be premature. The emergence of more transmissible variants means that even wealthy nations with abundant vaccines, including the United States, remain vulnerable. Places like Australia, which shut down its border, are learning that they cannot keep the virus out.
        然而,科学家警告,这样的疫情终结战略可能还为时过早。更多传播性变种的出现,意味着即使是手握大量疫苗的富裕国家——包括美国——也仍然易受感染。澳大利亚等关闭了边境的国家也意识到,他们无法将病毒拒之门外。
        So rather than abandon their road maps, officials are beginning to accept that rolling lockdowns and restrictions are a necessary part of recovery. People are being encouraged to shift their pandemic perspective and focus on avoiding severe illness and death instead of infections, which are harder to avoid. And countries with zero-Covid ambitions are rethinking those policies.
        于是,与其说放弃他们的计划,官员们开始接受现实,即接踵而至的封锁和限制是复苏的必要组成部分。他们鼓励民众转变对疫情的看法,把重点放在避免重症和死亡,而不是难以避免的感染之上。有“零新冠”雄心的国家都在重新考虑其政策。
        “You need to tell people: We’re going to get a lot of cases,” said Dale Fisher, a professor of medicine at the National University of Singapore who heads the National Infection Prevention and Control Committee of Singapore’s Health Ministry. “And that’s part of the plan — we have to let it go.”
        “你得告诉民众:我们会有很多病例,”新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)医学教授、新加坡卫生部国家感染防控委员会(National Infection Prevention and Control Committee)主席戴尔·费舍尔(Dale Fisher)说。“这就是计划的一部分——我们必须放开管制。”
        For months, many residents in Singapore, the small Southeast Asian city-state, pored over the details of each new Covid case. There was a palpable sense of dread when infections reached double digits for the first time. And with borders closed, there was also a feeling of defeat, since even the most diligent measures were not enough to prevent infection.
        几个月来,新加坡这个东南亚小国的许多居民都在密切关注每一个新感染病例的细节。当感染人数首次达到两位数时,民众反应明显带有恐惧。由于边境关闭,人们也有一种挫败感,因为即便再大费周章也难防感染。
        “Our people are battle weary,” a group of Singapore ministers wrote in an opinion essay in the Straits Times newspaper in June. “All are asking: When and how will the pandemic end?”
        “我们的人民已经疲惫不堪,”新加坡几名部长6月在《海峡时报》(The Straits Times)的一篇观点文章中写道。“所有人都在问,这场疫情何时结束?如何结束?”
        Officials in Singapore announced plans to gradually ease restrictions and chart a path to the other side of the pandemic. The plans included switching to monitoring the number of people who fall very ill, how many require intensive care and how many need to be intubated, instead of infections.
        新加坡官员宣布了逐步放松限制的计划,并规划出一条走出疫情的路。这些计划包括从监测感染人数转向监测重症患者数,统计有多少人需要重症监护和插管治疗。
        Those measures are already being put to the test.
        这些措施已经在接受考验。
        Outbreaks have spread through several karaoke lounges and a large fishery port, and on Tuesday Singapore announced a tightening of measures, including banning all dine-in service. The trade minister, Gan Kim Yong, said the country was still on the right track, comparing the latest restrictions to “roadblocks” toward the final goal.
        疫情已经在多家卡拉OK厅和一个大型渔港蔓延,周二,新加坡宣布收紧措施,包括禁止一切堂食服务。贸工部长颜金勇(Gan Kim Yong)表示,新加坡仍处于正轨,他将最新的限制措施比作通向最终目标的“路障”。
        Singapore has fully vaccinated 49 percent of its population and has cited Israel, which is further ahead at 58 percent, as a model. Israel has pivoted to focusing on severe illness, a tactic that officials have called “soft suppression.” It is also facing its own sharp rise in cases, up from single digits a month ago to hundreds of new cases a day. The country recently reimposed an indoor mask mandate.
        新加坡给49%的人口完全接种了疫苗,并将以色列作为榜样,后者完全接种率更高,达到58%。以色列已经转向关注严重疾病,官员称这一策略为“软抑制”。但以色列也面临感染数的急剧上升,每日病例从一个月前的个位数上升至数百例。该国最近重新实施了室内戴口罩的规定。
        “It’s important, but it’s quite annoying,” said Danny Levy, 56, an Israeli civil servant who was waiting to see a movie at a cinema complex in Jerusalem last week. Mr. Levy said that he would wear his mask inside the theater, but that he found it frustrating that restrictions were being reimposed while new virus variants were entering the country because of weak testing and supervision of incoming travelers.
        “这很重要,但也很烦人,”上周,正在耶路撒冷一家影院外等待进场的56岁以色列公务员丹尼·利维(Danny Levy)表示。利维说他会在影院里戴口罩,但让他不满的是,由于对入境旅客的检测和监督不力,新的病毒变种正在进入国内,而重新实施限制措施。
        Michael Baker, an epidemiologist at the University of Otago in New Zealand, said that countries taking shortcuts on their way to reopening were putting unvaccinated people at risk and gambling with lives.
        新西兰奥塔哥大学(University of Otago)流行病学家迈克尔·贝克(Michael Baker)说,那些在重新开放的道路上走捷径的国家正在把未接种疫苗的人置于危险之中,是拿他们的生命赌博。
        “At this point in time, I actually find it quite surprising that governments would necessarily decide they know enough about how this virus will behave in populations to choose, ‘Yes, we are going to live with it,’” said Mr. Baker, who helped devise New Zealand’s Covid elimination strategy.
        “到这个时候,令我很感惊讶的是,各国政府真的认定他们对这种病毒将在人群中如何表现有了足够的了解,才选择‘是的,我们将与之共存’,”帮助新西兰制定新冠消除策略的贝克说道。
        New Zealanders seem to have accepted the possibility of longer-term restrictions. In a recent government-commissioned survey of more than 1,800 people, 90 percent of respondents said they did not expect life to return to normal after they were vaccinated, partly because of the lingering questions about the virus.
        新西兰民众似乎已经接受了限制长期存在的可能性。在最近政府委托对1800多人进行的一项调查中,90%的受访者表示,他们并没有指望接种疫苗后生活恢复正常,部分原因是关于病毒的疑问仍挥之不去。
        Scientists still do not fully understand “long Covid” — the long-term symptoms that hundreds of thousands of previously infected patients are still grappling with. They say that Covid-19 should not be treated like the flu, because it is far more dangerous. They are also uncertain about the duration of immunity provided by vaccines and how well they protect against the variants.
        科学家仍然没有完全了解“长期新冠”——即仍在困扰无数此前被感染者的长期症状。他们说,不能像对待流感那样对待新冠,因为后者要危险得多。他们不确定疫苗提供的免疫力能持续多久,也不确定它们对病毒变种的防护效果如何。
        Much of the developing world is also still facing rising infections, giving the virus a greater opportunity to rapidly replicate, which then increases the risks of more mutations and spread. Only 1 percent of people in low-income countries have received a vaccine dose, according to the Our World in Data project.
        大多数发展中国家也仍面临感染人数上升的问题,这使得病毒迅速复制的概率增加,从而导致更多变异和传播的风险增大。根据“用数据看世界”(Our World in Data)项目的统计,低收入国家只有1%的人口接种了疫苗。
        In the United States, where the state and local governments do much of the decision-making, conditions vary widely from place to place. States like California and New York have high vaccination rates but require unvaccinated people to wear masks indoors, while others, like Alabama and Idaho, have low vaccination rates but no mask mandates. Some schools and universities plan to require on-campus students to be vaccinated, but several states have prohibited public institutions from imposing such restrictions.
        在美国,州与地方政府负责大多数决策,各地情况差别很大。加利福尼亚和纽约等州的疫苗接种率很高,但还要求未接种疫苗的人在室内戴口罩;而阿拉巴马和爱达荷等州的疫苗接种率较低,且没有戴口罩的规定。一些学校和大学计划要求在校学生接种疫苗,但多个州已经禁止公共机构实施此类管制措施。
        In Australia, several state lawmakers suggested this month that the country had reached “a fork in the road” at which it needed to decide between persistent restrictions and learning to live with infections. They said that Australia might need to follow much of the world and give up on its Covid-zero approach.
        在澳大利亚,数名州议员本月表示,该国已经走到了“岔路口”,它需要在持续的限制措施和学会与感染共存之间做出决定。他们表示,澳大利亚可能需要效仿世界大多数国家,放弃其新冠零感染策略。
        Gladys Berejiklian, the leader of the Australian state of New South Wales, immediately knocked the proposal down. “No state or nation or any country on the planet can live with the Delta variant when our vaccination rates are so low,” she said. Only about 11 percent of Australians over age 16 are fully vaccinated against Covid-19.
        澳大利亚新南威尔士州州长格拉迪斯·贝雷吉克利安(Gladys Berejiklian)立即否决了该提案。她说:“在我们的疫苗接种率如此低的情况下,地球上没有哪个州或者国家能够忍受德尔塔病毒变种。”在16岁以上的澳大利亚人中,只有约11%的人接种了新冠疫苗。
        Prime Minister Scott Morrison also backed away from calls for a shift in the country’s Covid protocols. After announcing a four-phase plan for returning to regular life on July 2, he has insisted that the strength of the Delta variant requires an indefinite postponement.
        澳大利亚总理斯科特·莫里森(Scott Morrison)也不支持改变该国新冠方案的呼吁。在7月2日宣布恢复正常生活的四阶段计划后,他坚持认为,德尔塔病毒变种的力量导致恢复正常需要无限期推迟。
        In places where vaccine shots have been widely available for months, such as Europe, countries have bet big on their inoculation programs as a ticket out of the pandemic and the key to keeping hospitalizations and deaths low.
        在欧洲等疫苗接种已广泛普及数月的地区,各国都在疫苗接种计划上下了大赌注,将其作为摆脱疫情的门票,以及保持低住院率和低死亡率的关键。
        Germans who have been fully immunized in the past six months can dine indoors in restaurants without showing proof of a negative rapid test. They are allowed to meet up in private without any limits and to travel without a 14-day quarantine.
        在过去六个月里完全接种疫苗的德国人可以在餐馆用餐,无需出示快速检测阴性的证据。他们被允许私下会面,不受任何限制,旅行不需要14天的隔离。
        In Italy, masks are required only when entering stores or crowded spaces, but many people continue to wear them, even if only as a chin guard. “My daughters chide me — they say I’ve been vaccinated and don’t need to wear a mask, but I got used to it,” said Marina Castro, who lives in Rome.
        在意大利,只有进入商店或拥挤空间时才需要戴口罩,但许多人仍然戴着口罩,即使只是盖住下巴。“女儿们责备我——她们说我已经接种了疫苗,不需要戴口罩,但我已经习惯了,”住在罗马的玛丽娜·卡斯特罗(Marina Castro)说。
        England, which has vaccinated nearly all of its most vulnerable residents, has taken the most drastic approach. On Monday, the country eliminated virtually all Covid-19 restrictions despite the rise of Delta-variant infections, particularly among young people.
        在英国,几乎所有最脆弱的居民都接种了疫苗,它采取了最严厉的措施。周一,该国取消了几乎所有对新冠的限制,尽管德尔塔病毒变体有所增加,尤其是在年轻人中。
        On “Freedom Day,” as the tabloids called it, pubs, restaurants and nightclubs flung their doors wide open. Curbs on gatherings and mask requirements were also lifted. People were seen dining al fresco and sunbathing, cheek to jowl.
        在小报所称的“自由日”,酒吧、餐馆和夜总会敞开大门。对集会的限制和口罩要求也被取消。可以看到人们在户外用餐和晒日光浴,脸贴着脸。
        In the absence of most rules, the government is urging people to use “personal responsibility” to maintain safety. Sajid Javid, Britain’s health secretary — who tested positive for the coronavirus last week — said last month that the country needed to “learn to live” with the virus. That is despite polls suggesting that the English public prefers a more gradual approach to reopening.
        在大多数规则不复存在的情况下,政府敦促人们用“个人责任”来维护安全。英国卫生大臣赛义德·贾维德(Sajid Javid)上周的冠状病毒检测呈阳性,他曾在上个月表示,英国需要“学会与这种病毒共存”。尽管民意调查显示,英国公众更倾向于以更渐进的方式重新开放。
        Officials in Singapore, which reported a year-high 182 locally transmitted infections on Tuesday, say the number of cases is likely to rise in the coming days. The outbreak appears to have delayed but not scuttled plans for a phased reopening.
        新加坡周二报告的本地传播感染病例为182例,创下一年来的新高。新加坡官员说,未来几天病例数可能会上升。疫情的暴发似乎推迟了分阶段重新开放的计划,但没有破坏该计划。
        “You give people a sense of progression,” Ong Ye Kung, Singapore’s health minister, said this month, “rather than waiting for that big day when everything opens and then you go crazy.”
        “你要给人们一种渐进的感觉,”新加坡卫生部长王乙康本月说,“而不是等到一切都开放的大日子,然后疯狂起来。”
        
        
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