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多年平静后,巴以冲突为何现在突然爆发?
After Years of Quiet, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Exploded. Why Now?

来源:纽约时报    2021-05-17 04:34



        JERUSALEM — Twenty-seven days before the first rocket was fired from Gaza this week, a squad of Israeli police officers entered the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, brushed the Palestinian attendants aside and strode across its vast limestone courtyard. Then they cut the cables to the loudspeakers that broadcast prayers to the faithful from four medieval minarets.        耶路撒冷——在第一枚火箭弹于上周从加沙地带发射的27天前,一队以色列警察进入了耶路撒冷的阿克萨清真寺,将巴勒斯坦服务人员推到一边,大步穿过巨大的石灰岩庭院。然后,他们来到四座中世纪的宣礼塔上,切断了向信徒们广播祈祷的扬声器的电缆。
        It was the night of April 13, the first day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. It was also Memorial Day in Israel, which honors those who died fighting for the country. The Israeli president was delivering a speech at the Western Wall, a sacred Jewish site that lies below the mosque, and Israeli officials were concerned that the prayers would drown it out.        那是4月13日的晚上,穆斯林斋月的第一天,也是以色列纪念为国牺牲者的阵亡将士纪念日。当时以色列总统正在清真寺下面的犹太圣地西墙发表演讲,以色列官员担心祈祷会淹没他的演讲声。
        The incident was confirmed by six mosque officials, three of whom witnessed it; the Israeli police declined to comment. In the outside world, it barely registered.        六名清真寺管理人员证实了这一事件,其中三人是亲眼目睹;以色列警方拒绝置评。这件事几乎没有被外界注意到。
        But in hindsight, the police raid on the mosque, one of the holiest sites in Islam, was one of several actions that led, less than a month later, to the sudden resumption of war between Israel and Hamas, the militant group that rules the Gaza Strip, and the outbreak of civil unrest between Arabs and Jews across Israel itself.        但事后看来,警方对清真寺这一伊斯兰教最神圣场所的突袭,是一系列行动中的一起,它们导致不到一个月后,以色列与统治加沙地带的激进组织哈马斯(Hamas)之间突然重启战争,以及以色列全国各地阿拉伯人和犹太人之间爆发内乱。
        “This was the turning point,” said Sheikh Ekrima Sabri, the grand mufti of Jerusalem. “Their actions would cause the situation to deteriorate.”        “这是一个转折点,”耶路撒冷大穆夫提谢赫·埃克里马·萨布里(Sheikh Ekrima Sabri)说。“他们的行动将导致局势恶化。”
        That deterioration has been far more devastating, far-reaching and fast-paced than anyone imagined. It has led to the worst violence between Israelis and Palestinians in years — not only in the conflict with Hamas, which has killed at least 145 people in Gaza and 12 in Israel, but in a wave of mob attacks in mixed Arab-Jewish cities in Israel.        这种恶化的破坏性、影响范围和速度远远超过人们想象。它导致了以色列和巴勒斯坦之间多年来最严重的暴力冲突——以色列与哈马斯的冲突已在加沙造成至少145人死亡,在以色列造成12人死亡,不仅如此,在以色列的阿拉伯人—犹太人混居城市也发生了一波暴徒袭击。
        It has spawned unrest in cities across the occupied West Bank, where Israeli forces killed 11 Palestinians on Friday. And it has resulted in the firing of rockets toward Israel from a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, prompted Jordanians to march toward Israel in protest, and led Lebanese protesters to briefly cross their southern border with Israel.        这在被占领的约旦河西岸各城市中引发了骚乱,以色列军队周五在当地杀死了11名巴勒斯坦人。它还导致黎巴嫩的一个巴勒斯坦难民营中有人向以色列发射火箭弹;导致约旦人向以色列游行以示抗议;并导致黎巴嫩抗议者短暂穿过该国同以色列的南部边境。
        The crisis came as the Israeli government was struggling for its survival; as Hamas — which Israel views as a terrorist group — was seeking to expand its role within the Palestinian movement; and as a new generation of Palestinians was asserting its own values and goals.        危机发生时,以色列政府正在为生存而挣扎;而被以色列视为恐怖组织的哈马斯正试图扩大自己在巴勒斯坦运动中的作用;与此同时,新一代巴勒斯坦人正在主张自己的价值观和目标。
        And it was the outgrowth of years of blockades and restrictions in Gaza, decades of occupation in the West Bank, and decades more of discrimination against Arabs within the state of Israel, said Avraham Burg, a former speaker of the Israeli Parliament and former chairman of the World Zionist Organization.        以色列议会前议长、前世界犹太复国主义组织(World Zionist Organization)主席阿夫拉哈姆·伯格(Avraham Burg)说,这是多年来在加沙的封锁和限制、几十年来在西岸的占领,以及几十年来以色列境内对阿拉伯人歧视的结果。
        “All the enriched uranium was already in place,” he said. “But you needed a trigger. And the trigger was the Aqsa Mosque.”        “所有的浓缩铀都已经到位,”他说。“但你需要一个触发器。这个触发器就是阿克萨清真寺。”
        It had been seven years since the last significant conflict with Hamas, and 16 since the last major Palestinian uprising, or intifada.        自上次以色列与哈马斯发生重大冲突以来,已经过去了七年;自上次巴勒斯坦“大起义”以来,已经过去了16年。
        There was no major unrest in Jerusalem when President Donald J. Trump recognized the city as Israel’s capital and nominally moved the United States Embassy there. There were no mass protests after four Arab countries normalized relations with Israel, abandoning a long-held consensus that they would never do so until the Palestinian-Israeli conflict had been resolved.        当唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)总统承认耶路撒冷为以色列首都,并在名义上将美国大使馆迁往那里时,耶路撒冷并没有发生重大动乱。四个阿拉伯国家与以色列关系正常化后没有发生大规模抗议活动,这些国家放弃了长期以来的共识,即在巴以冲突解决之前,它们永远不会同以色列实现关系正常化。
        Two months ago, few in the Israeli military establishment were expecting anything like this.        两个月前,以色列军方几乎没有人料想过这样的事情。
        In private briefings, military officials said the biggest threat to Israel was 1,000 miles away in Iran, or across the northern border in Lebanon.        军方官员在私下通报中表示,以色列面临的最大威胁是1000英里以外的伊朗,或者是北部边境的黎巴嫩。
        When diplomats met in March with the two generals who oversee administrative aspects of Israeli military affairs in Gaza and the West Bank, they found the pair relaxed about the possibility of significant violence and celebrating an extended period of relative quiet, according to a senior foreign diplomat who asked to remain anonymous in order to speak freely.        据一位要求匿名以便自由发言的外国高级外交官说,今年3月,外交官们会见了在加沙和约旦河西岸负责以色列军方行政事务的两位将军,他们发现这两位将军并不太担心发生严重暴力事件的可能性,并为较长时间内的相对平静局面感到欣喜。
        Gaza was struggling to overcome a wave of coronavirus infections. Most major Palestinian political factions, including Hamas, were looking toward Palestinian legislative elections scheduled for March, the first in 15 years. And in Gaza, where the Israeli blockade has contributed to an unemployment rate of about 50 percent, Hamas’s popularity was dwindling as Palestinians spoke increasingly of the need to prioritize the economy over war.        加沙正在努力克服新冠病毒感染的浪潮。包括哈马斯在内的大多数巴勒斯坦主要政治派别,都在期待巴勒斯坦计划于3月举行的15年来的首次巴勒斯坦议会选举。在加沙,以色列的封锁导致了约50%的失业率。随着巴勒斯坦人日益认为需要把经济置于战争之上,哈马斯的声望也在下降。
        The mood began to shift in April.        这种情绪在4月份开始转变。
        The prayers at Aqsa for the first night of Ramadan on April 13 occurred as the Israeli president, Reuven Rivlin, was making his speech nearby.        4月13日,阿克萨清真寺举行了斋月第一个晚上的祈祷仪式,当时以色列总统鲁文·里夫林(Reuven Rivlin)正在附近发表演讲。
        The mosque leadership, which is overseen by the Jordanian government, had rejected an Israeli request to avoid broadcasting prayers during the speech, viewing the request as disrespectful, a public affairs officer at the mosque said.        清真寺的一名公共事务官员说,由约旦政府管辖的清真寺管理方拒绝了以色列提出的避免在演讲期间播放祈祷的要求,认为这是不敬的。
        So that night, the police raided the mosque and disconnected the speakers.        所以当天晚上,以色列警方突袭清真寺,切断了扬声器。
        “Without a doubt,” said Sheikh Sabri, “it was clear to us that the Israeli police wanted to desecrate the Aqsa Mosque and the holy month of Ramadan.”        “毫无疑问,”谢赫·萨布里说,“我们很清楚,以色列警方想要亵渎阿克萨清真寺和神圣的斋月。”
        A spokesman for the president denied that the speakers had been turned off, but later said they would double-check.        总统的一位发言人否认扬声器被关闭,但后来说他们将仔细检查。
        In another year, the episode might have been quickly forgotten.        换在其他时候,这件事可能很快就会被遗忘。
        But last month, several factors suddenly and unexpectedly aligned that allowed this slight to snowball into a major showdown.        但在上个月,几个因素突然出乎意料地结合在一起,让这场轻微的冲突如滚雪球般演变成一场严重的对决。
        A resurgent sense of national identity among young Palestinians found expression not only in resistance to a series of raids on Al Aqsa, but also in protesting the plight of six Palestinian families facing expulsion from their homes. The perceived need to placate an increasingly assertive far right gave Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s caretaker prime minister, little incentive to calm the waters.        在巴勒斯坦年轻人中,民族认同感的复苏不仅体现为对阿克萨一系列袭击的抵制,也体现为对六个面临驱逐困境的巴勒斯坦家庭的抗议。由于认为需要安抚日益强硬的极右派,以色列代理总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)几乎没有平息事态的意思。
        A sudden Palestinian political vacuum, and a grass-roots protest that it could adopt, gave Hamas an opportunity to flex its muscles.        巴勒斯坦突然出现的政治真空,以及它可以采用的草根阶层抗议,给了哈马斯一个展示实力的机会。
        These shifts in the Palestinian dynamics caught Israel unawares. Israelis had been complacent, nurtured by more than a decade of far-right governments that treated Palestinian demands for equality and statehood as a problem to be contained, not resolved.        巴勒斯坦局势的这些变化让以色列措手不及。十多年来,极右翼政府把巴勒斯坦人对平等和国家地位的要求视为一个需要控制而不是解决的问题,这助长了以色列人的自满情绪。
        “We have to wake up,” said Ami Ayalon, a former director of the Israeli domestic intelligence agency, Shin Bet. “We have to change the way we understand all this, starting with the concept that the status quo is stable.”        “我们必须清醒过来,”以色列国内情报机构国家安全局(Shin Bet)前局长阿米·阿亚隆(Ami Ayalon)说。“我们必须改变对这一切的理解,从现状已经稳定这一概念开始。”
        The loudspeaker incident was followed almost immediately by a police decision to close off a popular plaza outside the Damascus Gate, one of the main entrances to the Old City of Jerusalem. Young Palestinians typically gather there at night during Ramadan.        扩音器事件发生后,警方几乎立即就决定封锁大马士革门外一个受欢迎的广场,这是通往耶路撒冷老城的主要入口之一。斋月期间的晚上,年轻的巴勒斯坦人经常聚集在那里。
        A police spokesman, Micky Rosenfeld, said the plaza was closed to prevent dangerously large crowds from forming there, and to head off the possibility of violence.        警方发言人米基·罗森菲尔德(Micky Rosenfeld)说,关闭广场是为了防止危险人群在那里聚集,并防止暴力事件发生。
        To Palestinians, it was another insult. It led to protests, which led to nightly clashes between the police and young men trying to reclaim the space.        对巴勒斯坦人来说,这也是一种侮辱。此举引发了抗议活动,而抗议又导致警察和试图夺回这片空地的年轻人每晚发生冲突。
        To the police, the protests were disorder to be controlled. But to many Palestinians, being pushed out of the square was a slight, beneath which were much deeper grievances.        对警方来说,抗议活动是需要控制的混乱。但对许多巴勒斯坦人来说,被赶出广场是一种侮辱,在这之下是更深层次的不满。
        “It made it feel as though they were trying to eliminate our presence from the city,” said Majed al-Qeimari, a 27-year-old butcher from East Jerusalem. “We felt the need to stand up in their faces and make a point that we are here.”        “这让人觉得,他们想把我们从城市里清除出去,”来自东耶路撒冷的27岁屠夫马吉德·盖马里(Majed al-Qeimari)说。“我们觉得有必要和他们对峙,表明我们在这里。”
        The clashes at the Damascus Gate had repercussions. Later that week, Palestinian youths began attacking Jews. Some posted videos on TikTok, a social media site, garnering public attention. And that soon led to organized Jewish reprisals.        大马士革门的冲突产生了影响。那个星期晚些时候,巴勒斯坦青年开始攻击犹太人。一些人在TikTok上发布视频,吸引了公众的注意。这很快导致了犹太人有组织的报复。
        On April 21, just a week after the police raid, a few hundred members of an extreme-right Jewish group, Lehava, marched through central Jerusalem, chanting “Death to Arabs” and attacking Palestinian passers-by. A group of Jews was filmed attacking a Palestinian home, and others assaulted drivers who were perceived to be Palestinian.        4月21日,就在警察突袭一周后,极右犹太团体拉哈瓦(Lehava)的几百名成员在耶路撒冷中部游行,高喊“阿拉伯人去死”,并袭击巴勒斯坦行人。有人拍下一群犹太人袭击了一个巴勒斯坦人的家,还有一群犹太人袭击了被认为是巴勒斯坦人的司机。
        Foreign diplomats and community leaders tried to persuade the Israeli government to lower the temperature in Jerusalem, at least by reopening the square outside Damascus Gate. But they found the government distracted and uninterested, said a person involved in the discussions, who was not authorized to speak publicly.        外国外交官和社区领袖试图说服以色列政府给耶路撒冷的局势降温,至少重新开放大马士革门外的广场。但一名未被授权公开发言的讨论参与者说,他们发现政府对此心不在焉,不感兴趣。
        Mr. Netanyahu was in the middle of coalition negotiations after an election in March — the fourth in two years — that ended without a clear winner. To form a coalition, he needed to persuade several extreme-right lawmakers to join him.        今年3月的选举两年来的第四次选举,结果没有明显的赢家,目前,内塔尼亚胡正为组建联合政府进行谈判。为了组建联合政府,他需要说服几位极右议员加入他的行列。
        “Netanyahu didn’t invent the tensions between Jews and Arabs,” said Anshel Pfeffer, a political commentator and biographer of the prime minister. “They’ve been here since before Israel was founded. But over his long years in power, he’s stoked and exploited these tensions for political gain time and again and has now miserably failed as a leader to put out the fires when it boiled over.”        “犹太人和阿拉伯人之间的紧张关系不是内塔尼亚胡发明的,”政治评论员、内塔尼亚胡传记作者安谢尔·菲佛(Anshel Pfeffer)说。“它们在以色列建立之前就有了。但在他执政的多年时间里,他一次又一次地煽动和利用这些紧张局势来获取政治利益,而且作为领导人,现在局势沸腾之时,他可悲地未能将火扑灭。”
        Mark Regev, a senior adviser to Mr. Netanyahu, rejected that analysis.        内塔尼亚胡的高级顾问马克·雷格夫(Mark Regev)反驳了这种分析。
        “Exactly the opposite is true,” Mr. Regev said. “He has done everything he can to try to make calm prevail.”        “事实恰恰相反,”雷格夫说。“他已经尽了一切可能来保持局势平静。”
        On April 25, the government relented on allowing Palestinians to gather outside the Damascus Gate. But then came a brace of developments that significantly widened the gyre.        4月25日,政府在允许巴勒斯坦人在大马士革门外集会的问题上有所松动。但随后出现的一系列发展极大地扩大了旋涡。
        First was the looming eviction of the six families from Sheikh Jarrah, a Palestinian neighborhood in East Jerusalem. With a final court decision on their case due in the first half of May, regular protests were held throughout April — demonstrations that accelerated after Palestinians drew a connection between the events at Damascus Gate and the plight of the residents.        首先是东耶路撒冷的巴勒斯坦居民区谢赫·贾拉区的六个家庭面临驱逐。法院将于5月上旬对该案作出最终判决,在巴勒斯坦人把大马士革门事件与居民的处境联系起来之后,示威活动加剧——人们整个4月都在举行定期抗议活动。
        “What you see now at Sheikh Jarrah or at Al Aqsa or at Damascus Gate is about pushing us out of Jerusalem,” said Salah Diab, a community leader in Sheikh Jarrah, whose leg was broken during a recent police raid on his house. “My neighborhood is just the beginning.”        “你在谢赫·贾拉、阿克萨或大马士革门看到的是我们被赶出耶路撒冷,”谢赫·贾拉的社区领袖萨拉·迪亚布(Salah Diab)说。最近警察突袭他的房屋时,他的腿被打断了。“我的社区仅仅是个开始。”
        The police said they were responding to violence by demonstrators in Sheikh Jarrah, but video and images showed they engaged in violence themselves. As the images began to circulate online, the neighborhood turned into a rallying point for Palestinians not just across the occupied territories and Israel, but among the diaspora.        警方说,他们正在对谢赫·贾拉示威者的暴力行为作出反应,但视频和照片显示他们自己也参与了暴力活动。当这些照片开始在网上流传时,该社区成为巴勒斯坦人——不仅包括被占领土和以色列的巴勒斯坦人,还包括流散巴勒斯坦人——的集结地。
        The experience of the families, who had already been displaced from what became Israel in 1948, was something “every single Palestinian in the diaspora can relate to,” said Jehan Bseiso, a Palestinian poet living in Lebanon.        居住在黎巴嫩的巴勒斯坦诗人杰汗·布塞索(Jehan Bseiso)表示,这些家庭本来居住的地方在1948年变成了以色列,自那以后就流离失所,他们的经历是“每一个流散巴勒斯坦人都能体会到的”。
        On April 29, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority canceled the Palestinian elections, fearing a humiliating result. The decision made Mr. Abbas look weak.        4月29日,巴勒斯坦权力机构主席马哈茂德·阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)因害怕出现丢人的结果而取消了巴勒斯坦大选。这一决定使阿巴斯显得软弱。
        Hamas saw an opportunity, and began to reposition itself as a militant defender of Jerusalem.        哈马斯看到了机会,并开始将自己重新定位为充满斗志的耶路撒冷捍卫者。
        “Hamas thought that by doing so, they were showing that they were a more capable leadership for the Palestinians,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political expert at Al Azhar University in Gaza City.        加沙市艾资哈尔大学(Al Azhar University)政治专家麦凯玛·阿布萨达(Mkhaimar Abusada)表示:“哈马斯认为这样做表明他们是更有能力的巴勒斯坦领导者。”
        On May 4, six days before the war began, the head of the Hamas military, Muhammed Deif, issued a rare public statement. “This is our final warning,” Mr. Deif said. “If the aggression against our people in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood does not stop immediately, we will not stand idly by.”        5月4日,战争爆发前六天,哈马斯军方负责人穆罕默德·迪夫(Muhammed Deif)发表了罕见的公开声明。“这是我们的最后警告,”戴夫说。“如果不立即停止在谢赫·贾拉附近对我们人民的侵犯,我们将不会袖手旁观。”
        War nevertheless seemed unlikely.        然而,看上去不像是会发生战争。
        But then came the most dramatic escalation of all: a police raid on the Aqsa Mosque on Friday, May 7. Police officers armed with tear gas, stun grenades and rubber-tipped bullets burst into the mosque compound shortly after 8 p.m., setting off hours of clashes with stone-throwing protesters in which hundreds were injured, medics said.        但是随后出现了最戏剧性的升级:5月7日周五,警察突袭了阿克萨清真寺。晚8点后不久,手持催泪弹、闪光弹和橡胶子弹枪的警察冲进清真寺,与扔石头的抗议者发生持续数小时的冲突,据医护人员所说,有数百人受伤。
        The police said the stone throwers started it; several worshipers said the opposite.        警方说,是扔石头的人先发起的。这和几名朝拜者说的相反。
        Whoever struck first, the sight of stun grenades and bullets inside the prayer hall of one of the holiest sites in Islam — on the last Friday of Ramadan, one of its holiest nights — was seen as a grievous insult to all Muslims.        无论是谁先发起的攻击,在斋月的最后一个周五,也是最神圣的夜晚之一,在伊斯兰教最神圣的地方之一的祈祷室内发射闪光弹和子弹,这样的景象被视为对所有穆斯林的严重侮辱。
        “This is about the Judaization of the city of Jerusalem,” Sheikh Omar al-Kisswani, another leader at the mosque, said in an interview hours after the raid. “It’s about deterring people from going to Al Aqsa.”        “这与耶路撒冷市的犹太化有关,”清真寺的另一位领袖谢赫·奥马尔·基斯瓦尼(Sheikh Omar al-Kisswani)在突袭几个小时后接受采访时说。“这是在阻止人们去阿克萨。”
        That set the stage for a dramatic showdown on Monday, May 10. A final court hearing on Sheikh Jarrah was set to coincide with Jerusalem Day, when Jews celebrate the reunification of Jerusalem, by dint of the capture of East Jerusalem, in 1967.        这就为5月10日周一的激烈对决打下了基础。关于谢赫·贾拉的最终法庭听证会日期正巧是犹太人庆祝耶路撒冷统一的“耶路撒冷日”(Jerusalem Day)。在1967年,犹太人凭借占领东耶路撒冷取得了耶路撒冷的统一。
        Jewish nationalists typically mark the day by marching through the Muslim Quarter of the Old City and trying to visit Temple Mount, the site on which the Aqsa Mosque is built.        犹太民族主义者通常会以游行通过旧城的穆斯林区并试图参观圣殿山——阿克萨清真寺建造于此——来纪念这一天。
        The looming combination of that march, tensions over Al Aqsa and the possibility of an eviction order in Sheikh Jarrah seemed to be building toward something dangerous.        耶路撒冷日游行、阿克萨的紧张局势以及对谢赫·贾拉家庭的驱逐令的同时迫近,看上去正朝着危险的方向发展。
        The Israeli government scrambled to tamp down tensions. The Supreme Court hearing in the eviction case was postponed. An order barred Jews from entering the mosque compound.        以色列政府努力缓解紧张局势。最高法院在驱逐案中的听证会被推迟。命令犹太人禁止进入清真寺。
        But the police raided the Aqsa Mosque again, early on Monday morning, after Palestinians stockpiled stones in anticipation of clashes with the police and far-right Jews. For the second time in three days, stun grenades and rubber-tipped bullets were fired across the compound, in scenes that were broadcast across the world.        但在周一清晨,警察再次突袭了阿克萨清真寺,此前,巴勒斯坦人预料还会与警察和极右犹太人发生冲突,于是事先储备了石块。这是三天来第二次在该清真寺内发射闪光弹和橡胶子弹,该过程在全世界被报道。
        At the last minute, the government rerouted the Jerusalem Day march away from the Muslim Quarter, after receiving an intelligence briefing about the risk of escalation if it went ahead.        在最后的紧要时刻,政府将耶路撒冷日游行改道,使其远离穆斯林区,因为此前接到情报指出如果游行照常,可能有暴力升级的风险。
        But that was too little, and far too late. By then, the Israeli Army had already begun to order civilians away from the Gaza perimeter.        但这样做远远不够,而且也太迟了。在那时,以色列军队已经开始命令平民远离加沙地带。
        Shortly after 6 p.m. on Monday, the rocket fire from Gaza began.        周一下午6点后不久,加沙开始向以色列发射火箭弹。
                
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