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华融债务困局考验北京金融改革决心
China’s Biggest ‘Bad Bank’ Tests Beijing’s Resolve on Financial Reform

来源:纽约时报    2021-05-18 04:31



        HONG KONG — BlackRock gave it money. So did Goldman Sachs.
        香港——贝莱德(BlackRock)给了它钱。高盛(Goldman Sachs)也是如此。
        Foreign investors had good reason to trust Huarong, the sprawling Chinese financial conglomerate. Even as its executives showed a perilous appetite for risky borrowing and lending, the investors believed they could depend on Beijing to bail out the state-owned company if things ever got too dicey. That’s what China had always done.
        外国投资者有充分的理由信任庞大的中国金融集团华融。即使华融高管对有风险的借贷行为的偏好充满危险,但投资者们认为,如果事情变得过于危险,他们可以依赖北京纾困。中国一直以来都是这么做的。
        Now some of those same foreign investors may need to think twice. Huarong is more than $40 billion in debt to foreign and domestic investors and shows signs of stumbling. The Chinese government, which has stayed quiet about a rescue, is in the early stages of planning a reorganization that will require foreign and Chinese bondholders alike to accept significant losses on their investments, according to two people familiar with the government’s plans.
        现在,其中一些曾这样想的外国投资者可能需要三思而后行。华融欠外国和国内投资者的债务超过400亿美元,并显示出困难的迹象。两名了解政府计划的知情人士说,对纾困保持沉默的中国政府目前正处于一项重组计划的初期,该计划将要求外国和中国债券持有人承担其投资遭受的重大损失。
        Beijing has spent decades bailing out Chinese companies that got in over their heads, but in recent years has vowed to turn off the tap. While regulators have promised to make an example out of financial institutions that gorged on loans and waited for the government to foot the bill, Huarong is testing the limits of that resolve.
        北京已经花费了数十年的时间纾困焦头烂额的中国公司,但是最近几年发誓要停止援助。监管机构已承诺对大肆放贷并等待政府负担账单的金融机构杀鸡儆猴,而华融则在挑战这一决心的极限。
        Unlike the handful of small banks and state-owned companies that have been allowed to fall apart, Huarong is a central part of China’s financial system and, some say, “too big to fail.” Its vulnerable status has left China’s leaders with a difficult choice: let it default and pierce investor faith in the government as a lender of last resort, or bail it out and undermine efforts to tame the ballooning debt threatening the wider economy.
        与少数几家被任由倒闭的小型银行和国有企业不同,华融是中国金融体系的核心部分,被一些人认为是“大到不能倒”。它的脆弱地位使中国领导人面临艰难的选择:任它违约并打破投资者对政府不得不贷款救助的信心,或者采取纾困措施,并破坏为抑制威胁到整个经济的不断膨胀的债务所做的努力。
        Analysts say Huarong’s future may be the strongest indication of China’s commitment to financial reform.
        分析人士说,华融的未来可能最能表明中国对金融改革的决心。
        “The regulator and investors are kind of playing a game of chicken,” said Zhangkai Huang, an associate professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “The regulator is saying there is going to be some serious reform in the financial system. The investors are saying, ‘I bet you don’t have the courage to let this default happen because there will be a crisis.’”
        “监管机构和投资者都在玩懦夫博弈,”北京清华大学副教授黄张凯说。“监管机构在说,金融体系将进行一些严肃的改革。投资者在说:‘我敢打赌,你没有勇气让这种违约发生,因为这将带来危机。’”
        Mr. Huang, who teaches finance, said the false sense of security created by government bailouts in China has led to an environment similar to the one in the United States before the 2008 financial crisis, when investors made bets assuming that they were safe.
        教授金融经济学的黄张凯说,中国政府纾困所产生的错误的安全感,导致了一种类似于2008年金融危机之前美国的环境,当时投资者在押注时认为自己是安全的。
        If the government goes ahead with its plan to clean up Huarong, it will be the most dramatic statement yet that in its pursuit of reform, China is willing to sacrifice the investors who lend its companies money.
        如果政府继续执行整顿华融的计划,那将是迄今为止最戏剧性的表态,即在追求改革中,中国愿意牺牲掉借钱给其公司的投资者。
        The timetable for a full overhaul of the company’s operations has not yet been set, but the people familiar with the government’s plans said China is strongly committed to making sure that both foreign and domestic bondholders do not receive full repayment of their principal. The goal is to dissuade people from investing in risky Chinese companies on the assumption that the government will bail them out.
        对该公司全面整顿的时间表尚未确定,但熟悉政府计划的人士说,中方态度坚决,不会让外国和国内债券持有人收到全部本金的退还。这样做的目的是阻止人们投资风险较高的中国公司,并认为政府会纾困。
        Huarong was born two decades ago when China’s state-led economy was beginning to open up. Before state-owned banks turned to the global market to raise money, they needed to get rid of debt to make themselves more attractive. Huarong took some of the ugliest loans off these banks, and for this reason was given the title of “bad bank.”
        华融诞生于二十年前,当时中国的国营经济开始开放。在国有银行转向全球市场筹集资金之前,它们需要摆脱债务以提高自身吸引力。华融从这些银行接管了一些最糟糕的贷款,因此被冠以“不良银行”的头衔。
        Of the four “bad banks” in China, Huarong became the biggest, expanding its empire by financing companies in energy, insurance, property and beyond. It used its access to cheap loans from state-owned banks to invest in risky deals with higher returns. It used its international arm to raise money from foreign investors, to whom it now owes more than $20 billion.
        在中国的四家“不良银行”中,华融成为最大的一家,通过为能源、保险、房地产等领域的公司融资扩大了自己的帝国。它利用从国有银行获得的低息贷款来投资高风险高收益的交易。它利用其国际部门从外国投资者那里筹集资金,现在欠外国投资者超过200亿美元。
        Huarong’s appetite for risk was put in stark relief under the leadership of Lai Xiaomin. Mr. Lai, the former chairman of Huarong, was stripped of his Communist Party membership in 2018 and executed in January for corruption and abuse of power, a highly unusual punishment that experts said was meant to send a message.
        在赖小民的领导下,华融的贪婪文化显露无疑。前董事长赖小民于2018年被开除党籍,并于1月因腐败和滥用职权而被处决,这是一种异乎寻常的惩罚,专家们说这是在传达一个信息。
        Mr. Lai confessed to accepting $277 million in bribes, telling state television that he had kept $30 million cash in safes around his apartment in Beijing, which he referred to as his “supermarket.”
        赖小民承认接受了17.88亿人民币的贿赂,并告诉国家电视台,他在北京的公寓的铁柜里存放了2亿元的现金,他称之为他的“超市”。
        Chinese regulators fear the corruption shown by Mr. Lai has become so embedded in Huarong’s business practice that assessing the full extent of its losses and the collateral damage from a possible default is a challenge.
        中国监管机构担心赖小民表现出的腐败行为已深深植入华融的商业活动中,以至于对其全部损失和可能发生的违约造成的附带损害的评估成为了挑战。
        “The scale and amount of money involved in Lai Xiaomin’s case is shocking,” said Li Xinran, a regulator at the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. “This shows that the current situation of the fight against corruption in the financial sector is still serious and complex. The task of preventing and resolving financial risks is still very difficult.”
        “赖小民案涉案款物之多、金额之大让人触目惊心。这表明,当前金融领域反腐败斗争形势依然严峻复杂,防范化解金融风险的任务依然十分艰巨,”中央纪律检查委员会监管人员李欣然表示。
        Not long after Mr. Lai was executed, Huarong gripped headlines again when it said that it would delay publishing its annual results in March. It delayed its annual results a second time last month, raising worries about the state of its financial health and its ability to repay investors.
        赖小民被处决后不久,华融宣布将推迟应在3月发布的年度业绩,从而再次成为媒体关注的焦点。上个月,该公司第二次推迟发布年度业绩,引发了对其财务健康状况和偿还投资者能力的担忧。
        Any situation where Huarong is unable to repay in full its investors would ripple through some of the world’s biggest and most high profile investment firms. As the international financial market grappled with that scenario, the bonds recently went into a tailspin.
        如果华融无法向投资者全额偿还债务,任何情况下都将波及一些全球最大、最知名的投资公司。正当国际金融市场努力应对这一局面时,其债券最近陷入了混乱。
        This year alone, Huarong owes $3.4 billion to foreign investors. After it delayed releasing its annual results, the bonds sold for as little as 60 cents for every dollar. In Hong Kong, its stock was suspended.
        仅在今年,华融就欠外国投资者近40亿美元。在公司推迟发布年度业绩后,债券已经跌至面值的60%。在香港,该公司股票被停牌。
        It is already very late for a big corporate reorganization, said Larry Hu, head of the China economics desk at Macquarie Group. “Huarong has already become too big to fail,” he said. “It is no longer a fix to the problem, but the problem itself.”
        麦格理集团(Macquarie Group)中国经济研究部主管胡伟俊(Larry Hu)说,现在进行大规模的企业重组已经太晚了。“华融已经大到不能倒了,”他说。“它不再是解决问题的办法,而是问题本身。”
        The government’s latest plan, which has not yet been reported, is likely to roil China’s corporate market. Last month, the broader market for Chinese companies started to wobble as anxious investors began to consider a possible contagion effect.
        尚未得到报道的政府最新计划可能会扰乱中国的企业市场。上个月,随着焦虑的投资者开始考虑可能的传染效应,中国企业的整体市场开始出现波动。
        Chinese companies owe nearly $500 billion in loans to foreign investors. A Huarong default could lead some international bondholders to sell their bonds in Chinese state-owned enterprises, and make it more difficult for Chinese companies to borrow from foreign investors, a critical source of funding.
        中国公司欠外国投资者近5000亿美元的贷款。华融的违约可能导致一些国际债券持有人出售其持有的中国国有企业债券,并使中国企业更难从外国投资者那里借钱,而外国投资者是中国企业的一个关键融资来源。
        Concerns about the company’s ability to raise fresh money prompted two ratings agency to put Huarong on a “watch” notice — a type of warning that means its debt could be downgraded, a move that would make its ability to borrow even more costly.
        对华融筹集新资金能力的担忧,促使两家评级机构将华融列入“观察”通知——这是一种警告,意味着其债务可能被降级,此举将使其举债成本更高。
        “There is no playbook for this,” said Logan Wright, director of China research at Rhodium Group, a consulting firm. China’s regulators are now faced with the challenge of following through with a promise to clean up the financial system while also preventing a possible meltdown, he said.
        “这件事上没有既定对策,”咨询公司荣鼎咨询(Rhodium Group)的中国研究主管洛根·赖特(Logan Wright)说。他说,中国监管机构现在面临的挑战是,要兑现清理金融体系的承诺,同时防止可能出现的崩溃。
        “You’re pitting Beijing’s new rhetoric that they are cracking down against the assumption that they will ensure the stability of the system,” he said.
        “北京方面的新说辞是他们正在进行打击,你得把他们的说法和他们将确保系统稳定的假设对照着看,”他说。
        The government is likely to inject some money into whatever reorganized company eventually emerges from Huarong’s difficulties, but it is not prepared to inject enough money to pay off all of the bonds, the two people familiar with the government’s plans said.
        两位熟悉政府计划的人士表示,政府可能会向最终摆脱华融困境的重组公司注入一些资金,但它不准备注入足够的资金来偿还所有债券。
        Even as the government crafts a plan to downsize Huarong, the company has sought to calm investors’ nerves, promising that it can pay its bills. Speaking to state media, Xu Yongli, vice president of Huarong, likened his firm to other critically important Chinese financial institutions.
        尽管政府制定了缩减华融规模的计划,但该公司仍试图安抚投资者的紧张情绪,承诺自己能够支付账单。在接受官方媒体采访时,华融副总裁徐勇力将华融与中国其他极为重要的金融机构相提并论。
        “The government support received by Huarong is no different,” he said.
        “中国华融获得的政府支持与其他企业不存在任何差异,”他说。
        
        
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