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| A large analysis looked at hundreds of factors that may influence the risk of heart failure and found one dietary factor in particular that was associated with a lower risk: drinking coffee. | 一项大型分析研究了数百种可能影响心力衰竭风险的因素，发现有一个饮食因素与较低的风险尤其相关：喝咖啡。 |
| Heart failure, sometimes called congestive heart failure, occurs when the heart muscle becomes weakened and can no longer pump blood efficiently. It can be caused by high blood pressure, heart valve disease, heart attack, diabetes and other diseases and conditions. | 心力衰竭，也叫充血性心力衰竭，发生在心肌虚弱、不能有效泵血的时候。它可能是由高血压、心脏瓣膜疾病、心脏病发作、糖尿病和其他疾病引起。 |
| The analysis included extensive, decades-long data from three large health studies with 21,361 participants, and used a method called machine learning that uses computers to find meaningful patterns in large amounts of data. | 该分析包括三个大型健康研究数十年的庞大数据，涉及21361名参与者，它还使用了机器学习的方法，利用计算机从大量数据中寻找有意义的规律。 |
| “Usually, researchers pick things they suspect would be risk factors for heart failure — smoking, for example — and then look at smokers versus nonsmokers,” said the senior author, Dr. David P. Kao, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Colorado. “But machine learning identifies variables that are predictive of either increased or decreased risk, but that you haven’t necessarily thought of.” | “通常，研究人员会挑选他们怀疑导致心力衰竭的危险因素，比如吸烟，然后对吸烟者和不吸烟者进行对比分析，”该研究的高级作者、科罗拉多大学(University of Colorado)医学助理教授戴维·P·高(David P. Kao)博士说。“但机器学习可以识别出可以预测风险增加或降低的变量，但你不一定会想到它们。” |
| Using this technique, Dr. Kao and his colleagues found 204 variables that are associated with the risk for heart failure. Then they looked at the 41 strongest factors, which included, among others, smoking, marital status, B.M.I., cholesterol, blood pressure and the consumption of various foods. The analysis is in Circulation: Heart Failure. | 利用这项技术，高和同事们发现了204个与心力衰竭风险相关的变量。然后，他们对41个最显著的因素进行了研究，其中包括吸烟、婚姻状况、体重指数、胆固醇、血压以及食物的摄入情况。论文发表于《循环：心力衰竭》杂志(Circulation: Heart Failure)。 |
| In all three studies, coffee drinking was associated more strongly than any other dietary factor with a decreased long-term risk for heart failure. | 在所有三项研究中，与其他所有的饮食因素相比，喝咖啡与心力衰竭长期风险降低的相关性更为突出。 |
| Drinking a cup a day or less had no effect, but two cups a day conferred a 31 percent reduced risk, and three cups or more reduced risk by 29 percent. There were not enough subjects who drank more than three cups daily to know if more coffee would decrease the risk further. | 每天喝一杯或不足一杯没有任何效果，但每天喝两杯可降低31%的风险，三杯或更多可将风险降低29%。没有足够多的受试者每天喝超过三杯咖啡，所以无从了解喝更多的咖啡是否会进一步降低风险。 |
| This is not the first study to find health benefits in coffee drinking. “In other studies, coffee drinking has been associated with a reduced risk for stroke and coronary heart disease as well,” Dr. Kao said, though “we didn’t find this in our study.” | 这不是第一个发现喝咖啡对健康有益的研究。“在其他研究中，喝咖啡也与中风和冠心病风险的降低有关，”高说，不过“我们在研究中没有发现这一点”。 |
| The study was not able to account for different types of coffee or brewing methods, or the use of additives like sugar or cream. There was no association of a decreased risk of heart failure with drinking decaffeinated coffee — in fact, one study suggested it might increase the risk. | 该研究无法分辨不同类型的咖啡或冲泡方法，或者添加糖或奶油的差异。饮用不含咖啡因的咖啡不能降低心力衰竭的风险——事实上，一项研究表明，它可能会增加相关风险。 |
| Caffeine may be an important factor, the authors suggested, but the mechanism for the effect is not known. The study did not examine the effect of tea or other caffeine-containing foods. | 作者认为，咖啡因可能是一个重要因素，但其作用机制尚不明确。这项研究没有研究茶或其他含咖啡因食物的效果。 |
| Unlike conventional observational studies that begin with a hypothesis and then develop evidence for it, this machine learning analysis started with no initial hypothesis. Dr. Harlan Krumholz, a professor of medicine at Yale who was not involved in the work, called the approach “innovative” but noted one limitation was that “many other behaviors likely track with coffee consumption, and it is difficult to disentangle the specific effect of coffee from other things that may go along with it.” | 不同于传统的观察性研究——从假设开始，然后为其建立证据，这种机器学习分析法在开始的时候不做任何假设。耶鲁大学医学教授哈兰·克鲁姆霍尔茨(Harlan Krumholz)博士说，该方法具“创新性”，但也指出了一个局限，即“与咖啡摄入有关的可能还有其他许多行为，而且很难将咖啡的具体效果与其他可能与之相关的东西区分开来”。克鲁姆霍尔茨没有参与该研究。 |
| Should you start drinking coffee or increase the amount you already drink to reduce your risk for heart failure? “We don’t know enough from the results of this study to recommend this,” said Dr. Kao, adding that additional research would be needed. “It would be helpful if we could figure out whether drinking an extra cup would prevent certain complications.” | 为了减少心力衰竭的风险，应该开始喝咖啡或者增加咖啡摄入量吗？“这项研究的结果中，我们无法获得充分的信息来给出这样的建议，”高说。他还表示需要进一步研究。“如果我们能弄清楚多喝一杯是否能预防某些并发症，那会很有用。” |
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