五个关键问题,详解佐治亚州参议员决选_OK阅读网
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五个关键问题,详解佐治亚州参议员决选
What We Know About the Voting in Georgia So Far

来源:纽约时报    2021-01-05 04:21



        Georgia’s runoff elections on Tuesday are high-stakes contests that will determine which party controls the Senate and set the agenda for the new administration in Washington.        周二的佐治亚州决选是一场利害攸关的选举,将决定哪个政党控制参议院,为华盛顿的新一届政府制定议事日程。
        Two Republican incumbents, Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, are battling to keep their seats. If their Democratic challengers, Jon Ossoff and the Rev. Raphael Warnock, both win, Democrats will reclaim the Senate majority.        两名在任共和党参议员戴维·珀杜(David Perdue)和凯利·洛弗勒(Kelly Loeffler)正在努力保住自己的席位。如果他们的民主党挑战者乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)和拉斐尔·沃诺克牧师(Rev. Raphael Warnock)都获胜,民主党将重新获得参议院多数席位。
        Control of the Senate will effectively set the parameters of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s first two years in office. A Republican-led Senate would complicate his ability to staff his cabinet, pass legislation and drive his political priorities.        对参议院的控制,实际上将决定候任总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)的前两年任期能走多远。一个由共和党领导的参议院,将给他在内阁成员配置、立法和推动其政治优先事项上带来阻碍。
        Here’s a look at what we know about the two runoff races ahead of election day.        以下是我们在选举日之前对这两场决选的了解。
        How have the Democrats and Republicans fared in early voting?        民主党和共和党在提前投票中表现如何?
        Three million people have already voted in the runoff races, nearly 40 percent of all the registered voters in the state, according to data compiled by the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project. That total surpasses the 2.1 million ballots cast in the state’s last Senate runoff election, which happened in 2008.        佛罗里达大学美国选举项目(U.S. Elections Project)汇编的数据显示,已有300万人在决选中投票,占该州所有登记选民的近40%。这一总数超过了该州2008年参议院决选时投出的210万张选票。
        The early voting data suggests that the races are very competitive. There are some indications that Democrats had a bigger share of the early-voting electorate than they did in the general election, raising hopes for a party that has traditionally been the underdog in runoff races. The Atlanta area, the Democrats’ political base, has seen some of the highest turnout rates in the state’s early voting.        提前投票的数据显示,决选竞争非常激烈。有些迹象表明,民主党在提前投票的选民中所占的比例比大选时还要高,这让人们对一个在决选中历来处于劣势的政党燃起了希望。作为民主党票仓的亚特兰大地区在提前投票中创下了一些最高投票率纪录。
        The outcome now depends on whether Republicans can overcome the Democrats’ early gains when they head to the polls on Tuesday. Rates of early voting have been lowest in the conservative northwest corner of the state, worrying some Republicans. But others argue that their supporters typically vote in higher numbers on election day and hope that President Trump’s rally on Monday in Dalton, a city in the northwest, will push more Republicans to the polls.        现在,结果就取决于共和党能否在周二的投票中逆转民主党的提前投票优势。在该州保守的西北角,提前投票比例是最低的,这让一些共和党人感到担忧。但也有人说,他们的支持者通常会在选举日投票,并期待特朗普总统周一在该州西北部城市道尔顿举行的集会能推动更多共和党人去投票。
        Democrats’ early voting advantage helped them beat Mr. Trump in the November election, when Mr. Biden won nearly 400,000 more absentee ballots in the state.        民主党的提前投票优势帮助他们在11月大选中击败了特朗普,当时拜登在该州拿下的缺席选票比特朗普多出近40万张。
        When are the deadlines to vote?        投票何时截止?
        For those planning to cast ballots in person on election day on Tuesday, voting locations open at 7 a.m. Eastern time and close at 7 p.m. Anyone in line at 7 p.m. can stay in line to vote.        对于计划在周二选举日到现场投票的选民,投票地点将于东部时间早七点开放,晚七点关闭。所有到晚七点还在排队的人都可以继续排队投票。
        Absentee ballots must be received by mail or placed in a drop box by 7 p.m. Tuesday to be counted. (Democrats warned voters on Monday not to mail in ballots at this point but to put them in drop boxes.) Military and overseas ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday.        缺席选票必须在周二晚七点之前邮寄抵达或是放入投票箱。(民主党人周一警示选民,现在不要再邮寄选票了,而是要将选票放入投票箱。)军队和海外选票必须在周二之前盖上邮戳。
        What should we expect on election day?        在选举日我们应该期待什么?
        Strategists from both parties remain uncertain on what to anticipate beyond a tight race. Demographic changes have shifted the politics in Georgia, turning the traditionally conservative Southern state into a hotly contested battleground.        两党策略师仍不确定会发生什么,只知道竞争会非常激烈。人口结构的变化改变了佐治亚州的政治格局,把这个传统上保守的南部州变成了竞争激烈的战场。
        In November, Mr. Perdue received 49.7 percent of the vote, just short of the majority he would have needed to avoid a runoff, while his challenger, Mr. Ossoff, had 47.9 percent — a difference of about 88,000 votes. The field was more crowded in the other Senate contest: Mr. Warnock finished with 32.9 percent of the vote and Ms. Loeffler with 25.9 percent.        去年11月,珀杜获得49.7%的选票,离他避免决选所需的多数票只差一点,他的竞争对手奥索夫获得47.9%的选票——双方相差大约8万8千张选票。另一场参议院竞选中的竞争者更多:沃诺克最终获得32.9%的选票,洛弗勒获得25.9%的选票。
        Modeling the electorate for these rematches isn’t easy: Never has a Georgia runoff determined the balance of power in the Senate — or been held in the midst of a pandemic.        为这些重选建立选民模型并不容易:佐治亚州的决选从来没有决定过参议院的权力平衡——也从来没有在大流行期间举行过。
        Both parties expect turnout to be significantly higher than in the 2008 Senate runoff election, though few analysts anticipate numbers close to the five million voters in Georgia who cast ballots in November’s general election.        两党都预计参加投票的人数将大大高于2008年参议院决选的人数。不过,几乎没有分析人士预计参加投票的人数会接近11月大选时佐治亚州的500万名投票者。
        At this point in the race, total turnout is 23 percent lower than it was in the November election, according to state data compiled by Ryan Anderson, a data analyst in Atlanta. About 1.2 million people who voted early in the general election have not yet voted in the runoffs.        根据亚特兰大的数据分析师瑞安·安德森(Ryan Anderson)编制的州数据,目前的投票人数比11月大选时减少了23%。大约有120万在大选中提前投票的人还没有在决选中投票。
        When will we know the results?        我们何时能知道结果?
        The Georgia State Election Board extended some emergency provisions from the November election, like keeping drop boxes in place for absentee ballots. Some of the rules were tweaked to encourage a faster count, which would enable the winners to be seated sooner. The new Congress was already sworn in on Sunday.        佐治亚州选举委员会扩大了11月选举中的一些紧急条款,比如保留缺席选票的投票箱。一些规则进行了调整,以鼓励更快的计票速度,以便获胜者更快就位。新一届国会已于周日宣誓就职。
        Counties were required to begin scanning and processing ballots at least a week before the election, though they cannot begin counting or tabulating them until polls close on Tuesday. Those new rules may lead to quicker results, although in a close race most Georgians (and everyone else) may go to sleep before news outlets have enough results to declare a winner.        各县必须在选举前至少一周开始扫描和处理选票,不过要到周二投票结束后才能开始点票或为选票制表。这些新规则也许能加快计票进度,然而竞争实在激烈,大多数佐治亚州人(以及其他所有人)可能会在新闻媒体有足够的结果可以公布之前就入睡了。
        In November, it took a week and a half of counting after Election Day before it was clear that Mr. Biden had won the state.        去年11月大选日过后,经过了一周半的计票工作才明确拜登赢得了该州。
        Republicans are expected to command an early lead on election night, both because the more conservative areas of the state typically report results faster and because votes cast in person, which have favored Republicans during the pandemic, are typically released earlier. Heavily Democratic counties, including the suburban Atlanta areas that helped Mr. Biden win, historically take longer to count votes.        预计共和党人将在选举之夜的早期取得领先,一方面是因为该州较为保守的地区通常会更快报告结果,另一方面是因为大流行期间有利于共和党人的现场投票通常会更早公布。民主党支持率很高的县,包括帮助拜登获胜的亚特兰大郊区地区,历来需要更长的时间计票。
        And yes, there could be yet another round of counting. Under Georgia law, if the margin separating the candidates is within half of a percentage point, the losing candidate can request a recount in which election officials would again run the ballots through scanners.        而且,是的,可能还会有新一轮的计票。根据佐治亚州的法律,如果候选人之间的差距在半个百分点以内,落选的候选人可以要求重新计票,选举官员将再次对选票进行扫描。
        After multiple vote counts last year, state officials are preparing for all contingencies. The deputy secretary of state, Jordan Fuchs, has said the requirement for a full hand recount — like the one conducted in November — doesn’t apply to runoff elections.        经过去年的多次计票,州官员正在为所有的突发事件做准备。副州务卿乔丹·福克斯(Jordan Fuchs)表示,像去年11月那样的全手工重新计票要求不适用于决选。
        How have the parties been strategizing?        各方如何制定战略?
        Runoff races have traditionally been relatively sleepy contests, with lower turnout that has favored Republicans because of a drop-off among Democrats, particularly Black voters, after the general election. (The runoffs themselves were devised by white Georgians in the 1960s to dilute the power of Black voters.)        决选历来是相对沉闷的竞争,投票率较低,这有利于共和党,因为大选后民主党选民尤其是黑人选民的人数下降。(决选本身是由佐治亚州白人在1960年代设计的,目的是削弱黑人选民的力量。)
        Not this year. A staggering influx of political spending has flooded the state, as campaign operatives, party officials and outside groups descended on the races. Nearly $500 million has been spent on advertising, according to Ad Impact, an advertising tracking firm, saturating the airwaves at previously unheard-of levels.        不过今年并非如此。随着各种竞选活动人员、党内官员和外部团体纷纷进入竞选,惊人的政治支出涌入该州。广告追踪公司Ad Impact的数据显示,近5亿美元的广告支出令电视与广播上的竞选宣传达到了前所未闻的水平。
        Democrats have worked to keep turnout high, intensifying their outreach efforts, targeting voters of color with focused advertising campaigns and deploying a flotilla of high-wattage political stars to the state. As Mr. Trump prepared for his rally on Monday night, Mr. Biden campaigned for the Democrats in Atlanta in the afternoon.        民主党人一直在努力保持较高的投票率,他们加大宣传力度,通过有针对性的广告瞄准有色人种选民,并向该州派出一批重量级政治明星。在特朗普准备周一晚上集会的同时,拜登于当天下午在亚特兰大为民主党助选。
        A push to reach new voters, led by Stacey Abrams, prompted an estimated 800,000 residents to register to vote in this election cycle — a groundswell that voter mobilization groups have tried to build upon since November. Some Democrats and voting rights organizations have raised concerns about access to voting locations and possible suppression.        在斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯(Stacey Abrams)的领导下,争取新选民的努力促使大约80万居民在这个选举周期登记投票。自去年11月以来,选民动员团体一直在此基础上努力扩大声势。一些民主党人和投票权组织对如何进入投票地点以及可能的压制表示担忧。
        The Democratic efforts may be working: Early voting data shows that nearly 31 percent of voters who have cast ballots are Black, an increase of about three percentage points from their share in the general election.        民主党的努力可能正在发挥作用:早期投票数据显示,近31%的选民是黑人,比他们在大选中的比例增加了约3%。
        Republicans believe that some voters who backed Mr. Biden will want to see checks on Democratic power in Washington. But their effort has been complicated by Mr. Trump’s refusal to stop litigating the previous contest.        共和党人认为,一些支持拜登的选民希望看到民主党的权力在华盛顿受到制约。但特朗普拒绝停止对上一场竞选提起诉讼,给他们的行动制造了麻烦。
        The release of an audio recording of a phone call in which Mr. Trump pressured Georgia’s secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, to overturn the results of the election has upended the runoff races in the final days.        特朗普在电话中向佐治亚州务卿布拉德·拉芬斯伯格(Brad Raffensperger)施压,要求推翻选举结果,这段电话录音的公布在最后几天里颠覆了决选的形势。
        Some Republican strategists worry that Mr. Trump’s attacks on the presidential election results will complicate their efforts to win back some of the moderate suburban voters who fled their party in November.        一些共和党策略师担心,特朗普对总统选举结果的攻击,将增加他们赢回去年11月逃离共和党的温和派郊区选民的难度。
        A fringe group of conservatives is also encouraging Republicans to boycott the election to support Mr. Trump’s baseless claims about fraudulent vote counting, which could erode the two incumbents’ margins.        保守派的一个边缘群体也在鼓励共和党人抵制选举,以支持特朗普有关虚假计票的毫无根据的说法,这可能会削弱两位现任者的优势。
                
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