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| SYDNEY, Australia — China is forcing Australia to confront what many countries are concluding: The coal era is coming to an end. | 澳大利亚悉尼——中国正在迫使澳大利亚面对许多国家已看到的现实：煤炭时代正在结束。 |
| China has now officially blocked coal imports from Australia after months of vague restrictions that dramatically slowed trade and stranded huge ships at sea. | 中国现已正式禁止从澳大利亚进口煤炭。在这之前的几个月里，中国对澳大利亚的煤炭进口采取了不明确的限制措施，导致两国之间的贸易大幅减少，巨型船只滞留海上。 |
| For Australia, the world’s largest coal exporter, the decision is a gut punch that eliminates its second-biggest market at a time when many countries are already rethinking their dependence on a filthy fossil fuel that accelerates the devastation of climate change. | 对于世界上最大的煤炭出口国澳大利亚来说，中国的决定是一记沉重打击，将导致澳大利亚的第二大煤炭市场消失。许多国家现在都已在重新思考它们对这种肮脏化石燃料的依赖，煤炭的使用加速了气候变化带来的破坏。 |
| While Beijing’s motives are difficult to divine, there are hints of mercantilist protection for local producers and the desire to punish Australia for perceived sins that include demanding an inquiry into the source of the coronavirus. China’s commitment to cut emissions may also allow it to be marginally more selective with its vast purchases. | 尽管无法猜测中国政府的动机，但有迹象表明，这个决定中有对本土生产商进行重商主义保护的考虑，也有对包括要求调查新型冠状病毒起源等中国眼里的冒犯之举进行惩罚的愿望。中国对减少碳排放的承诺或许也让中国在购买巨量商品时有微不足道的选择。 |
| Whatever the reasoning, the impact is shaping up to be profound for a country that has tied its fate to coal for more than 200 years. Mining policy can still decide elections in Australia and the current conservative government is determined to do the bare minimum on climate change, which has made China’s coal cutback a symbolic, cultural and economic shock. | 无论什么原因，对这个200多年来一直将本国命运与煤炭绑在一起的国家来说，中国决定的影响都将是深远的。矿业政策仍能决定澳大利亚的选举，现任保守党政府执意在气候变化问题上做最小的努力，这使得中国对进口煤炭的限制具有象征性的以及文化和经济上的冲击力。 |
| “A transition has been forced upon us,” said Richie Merzian, the climate and energy program director at the Australia Institute, an independent think tank. “It’s hard to see how things will really pick up from here.” | “转型已被强加到我们身上，”独立智库澳大利亚研究所(Australia Institute)的气候与能源项目主任里奇·梅尔兹安(Richie Merzian)说。“现在很难看到事情会真正好转。” |
| The realization, if it holds, may take time to sink in. | 这种认识，如果能持续的话，可能需要一段时间才能让人充分领会。 |
| Prime Minister Scott Morrison has ridden Australia’s traditional reliance on fossil fuels into power. He famously held up a hunk of coal in Parliament in 2017, declaring “don’t be scared,” and first became prime minister in an intraparty coup after his predecessor, Malcolm Turnbull, tried to pursue a more aggressive approach to combating climate change. | 斯科特·莫里森(Scott Morrison)总理是靠澳大利亚对化石燃料的传统依赖上台的。他曾在2017年的一次议会上举着一大块煤宣称“不要害怕”，他在党内的一次政变中首次出任总理，因为前任马尔科姆·特恩布尔(Malcolm Turnbull)曾试图在应对气候变化上采取更积极的措施。 |
| “Coal-Mo,” as some of his critics call him, dismissed concerns on Wednesday about China’s ban, arguing that there are many other countries still lining up for the product. | 一些批评人士称莫里森为“Coal-Mo”（煤末），周三，他对中国禁令引发的担忧不屑一提，称还有许多其他国家仍在排队购买澳洲煤。 |
| “I should stress one point, that our biggest coal-exporting country, the country that takes our exports largest on coal are actually Japan and India,” he said. “So China is not our major importer when it comes to thermal or metallurgical coal.” | “我应该强调一点，我们最大的煤炭出口市场，拿到我们煤炭出口最大部分的国家，实际上是日本和印度，”莫里森说。“因此，在热煤或炼焦煤方面，中国不是我们的主要进口国。” |
| While Japan accounted for 27 percent of Australia’s roughly $50 billion in coal exports last year, China was not far behind at 21 percent. India was third at 16 percent. | 在澳大利亚去年约500亿美元的煤炭出口中，日本占了27%，中国占了21%，不比日本落后很多。印度则以16%排名第三。 |
| Mr. Morrison’s faith in coal is hardly unique. The combustible rock is a most Australian product. It was first discovered on the continent in 1797, less than a decade after the first British settlers arrived. Since then, entire communities have been built around not just mines but also sprawling ports where cargo ships lug mountains of coal all over the world. | 不只是莫里森一人对煤炭充满信心。这种可燃石头是最具澳大利亚特色的产品。澳洲大陆首次发现煤炭是1797年，当时，第一批英国定居者来到这里还不到十年。从那时起，整个社会围绕着煤炭建立起来，不仅围绕着煤矿，也围绕不断扩大的港口，货船从那里将堆积如山的煤运往世界各地。 |
| It is not a huge job producer. Only about 50,000 people worked in coal mining last year in Australia. (Plumbers clocked in at around 80,000.) | 煤炭并不是提供巨大就业机会的行业。澳大利亚去年只有大约5万人从事采煤工作。（水管工的人数约为8万。） |
| But it is a huge moneymaker. Coal production in Australia has more than doubled over the past three decades, with the share that is exported jumping to 75 percent in fiscal 2017, up from 55 percent in 1990. | 但煤炭是赚大钱的产品。澳大利亚的煤炭产量在过去30年里增长了一倍多，出口份额从1990年的55%跃升至2017财年的75%。 |
| Coal royalties for one state alone, Queensland, approached $4 billion last year. | 去年，仅昆士兰一州的煤炭开采权使用费就接近40亿美元。 |
| And in many areas, from the Hunter Valley a few hours outside Sydney, to Mackay near the Great Barrier Reef, coal has long been a constant. It’s what you see on trains and at sea. It’s what put Australia on the global map. For many, it’s what inspires nationalist pride. | 从悉尼外几个小时车程的猎人谷，到大堡礁附近的麦凯等许多地区，煤是长期以来到处可见的东西。火车上看到的是它，海上看到的也是它。煤炭让澳大利亚在全球占有一席之地。对许多人来说，煤炭激发了民族自豪感。 |
| China’s ban, which started gradually reducing imports in August, is deflating that image. | 中国已从今年8月开始逐步减少进口澳洲煤，现在又颁布了禁令，让煤炭在澳大利亚的形象逊色。 |
| Glencore, one of the largest coal mining companies in Australia, temporarily closed several of its mines in September and October. | 澳大利亚最大的煤矿开采公司之一嘉能可(Glencore)在9月和10月暂时关闭了几座煤矿。 |
| In Mackay, where coal volumes from the ports have been dropping, the fear of lost jobs and a lost way of life has been increasing. | 在麦凯，港口的煤炭运量一直在下降，人们对失去工作和生活方式的恐惧日益增加。 |
| The stocks of Australian coal companies collapsed this week after the China news hit the markets. | 中国的消息冲击市场后，澳大利亚煤企的股票本周出现暴跌。 |
| And there is little sign of improvement. One pricing agency, S&P Platts, has estimated that in the first quarter of next year alone Australia will lose out on sales of up to 32 metric tons of thermal coal — the coal for power plants — that would have gone to China. | 而且几乎没有好转的迹象。定价机构普氏能源资讯(S&P Platts)估计，仅在明年第一季度，澳大利亚将损失多达32吨动力煤（发电厂用煤）的销售，而它们本应运往中国。 |
| China, in many ways, is simply the face of a more significant global disruption. | 在许多方面，中国代表着更大的全球动荡。 |
| Japan announced earlier this year that it would retire about 100 of its most inefficient coal plants and invest in renewable energy. The country’s new prime minister announced in October that it would be carbon neutral by 2050. | 日本今年早些时候宣布，将淘汰约100家效率最低的燃煤电厂，并投资可再生能源。该国新任首相于10月宣布，到2050年将实现碳中和。 |
| South Korea and Taiwan, two other buyers in Australia’s top five, have also announced sharper targets for emission reduction, which would most likely mean less coal. | 韩国和台湾是澳大利亚前五名煤炭买家中的另外两个，它们也宣布了更严格的减排目标，这很可能意味着煤炭使用的减少。 |
| “It’s not market forces, it’s politics all the way down,” said Robyn Eckersley, a political scientist at the University of Melbourne who specializes in climate change. “The politics leads to a drying up of markets.” | “这不是市场力量，而是彻头彻尾的政治，”墨尔本大学政治学家罗宾·埃克斯利(Robyn Eckersley)说。“政治导致市场枯竭。” |
| For the coal industry, the broader trends beyond China are raising more concern. The United Nations’ scientific panel on global warming has repeatedly emphasized that a radical transformation of the world economy is needed to avoid devastation, calling for a rush away from coal. | 对于煤炭行业而言，中国以外的更广泛趋势引起了更多关注。联合国全球变暖科学小组一再强调，世界经济需要彻底转型，以免造成破坏，并呼吁远离煤炭。 |
| There are signs that it could be happening faster than the industry expected. | 有迹象表明，转型发生的速度可能快于行业预期。 |
| But there are also industry veterans who note that the politics and economics of energy tend to be fluid, and that coal cannot be counted out just yet. | 但是，也有一些行业资深人士指出，能源的政治和经济学往往不稳定，而煤炭目前还不能被排除出去。 |
| “None of this stuff happens very rapidly,” said Clinton Dines, the former head of BHP China, a subsidiary of the Australian-British mining giant. | 必和必拓中国(BHP China)前负责人戴坚定(Clinton Dines)说：“这些事情都不是很快发生。” |
| Specifically, he said that while there are signs of a transition away from coal in some countries, coal-fired power plants in India, China and elsewhere are still being built, even if total demand declines. It is also unclear, he added, how long the favorable politics and generous subsidies around renewable energy will last. | 具体地说，他指出，尽管有迹象表明一些国家正在从煤炭过渡，但印度、中国和其他地方的燃煤电厂仍在建设中，即使总需求下降。他还说，目前还不清楚围绕可再生能源的有利政治和慷慨补贴会持续多长时间。 |
| “You’ll probably get a spurt in the next couple of years,” he said. “Once the voting populace has to pay for it, it’s a different matter.” | “未来几年可能会有突然的迸发，”他说。“一旦投票民众不得不为此埋单，那就是另一回事了。” |
| With China, of course, trade is always a complex calculation with a web of products and companies. Even after Beijing has targeted Australian coal, wine, barley and beef, Australia’s exports to China may end up flat or up for 2020, with iron ore accounting for roughly half of the total. Mr. Dines argued that China might lift the coal ban after its businesses grumble. | 当然，对于中国而言，在产品和企业构成的网络中，贸易始终是一项复杂的算计。即使在北京将目标对准澳大利亚的煤炭、葡萄酒、大麦和牛肉之后，到2020年澳大利亚对中国的出口可能还是持平或上升，其中铁矿石占总出口的一半。戴坚定表示，中国可能会在企业发出抱怨后取消煤炭禁令。 |
| But with energy now intersecting with economics and the health of the planet, many coal critics in Australia are feeling ebullient, as if a turning point has already been reached. Banks in many countries are refusing to finance coal projects. There’s a new president in Washington who has pledged to join the worldwide effort to move away from fossil fuels — and Mr. Morrison’s stance, including his refusal to commit to net zero emissions by 2050, is increasingly leading to alienation on the global stage. | 但是，由于现在能源与经济和地球生态健康相交，澳大利亚的许多煤炭批评者都感到翘首以待，仿佛已经到了一个转折点。许多国家的银行拒绝为煤炭项目融资。华盛顿有了一位新总统，他已承诺与全球一起努力摆脱化石燃料，莫里森的立场——包括他拒绝承诺到2050年实现净零排放——则导致该国与全球日益疏远。 |
| Last week, Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain rescinded a request for Mr. Morrison to speak at a United Nations summit focused on climate change, questioning whether Australia was doing enough to earn the slot. | 上周，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)撤消了要求莫里森在联合国气候变化峰会上发表演讲的要求，质疑澳大利亚是否做了足够的努力来取得这次机会。 |
| “Australia is like the party boy that is still living like a 20-year-old in its 40s and 50s,” said Mr. Merzian at the Australia Institute. “Everyone is taking it seriously because their health depends on it and they know better, but Australia is still trying to rage on.” | “澳大利亚就像一个派对男孩，在四五十岁的年纪仍然过得像二十多岁，”澳大利亚研究所的梅尔兹安说。“每个人都认真对待这件事，因为这关系到他们的健康并且他们很明白，但澳大利亚仍在试图挥洒青春。” |
| No matter how much Australia’s leaders wants to hold onto coal, “the shock is coming,” said Alex Turnbull, an energy investor based in Singapore who is also the son of the former prime minister. | 新加坡的能源投资者、澳大利亚前总理的儿子亚历克斯·特恩布尔(Alex Turnbull)表示，无论澳大利亚领导人对煤炭有多坚持，“震波即将到来”。 |
| It’s time, he said, to find a way to support the communities that have been told for decades that coal will always be there to save them. | 他说，几十年来，社区一直被告知煤炭会永远存在，是时候找方法来支持这些社区，拯救他们了。 |
| “We need to just realize that this game is over here as far as export markets, which are looking very challenging,” he said. “If you’re Scott Morrison, you need to pivot or rip off the Band-Aid, or change the narrative. This is as good an opportunity as you can get because ultimately, it’s not your fault.” | “我们只需要意识到，就出口市场而言已经没戏了，这看起来非常具有挑战性，”他说。“如果你是斯科特·莫里森，你需要权衡或当断则断，或者更改叙述方式。这是你能得到的很好的机会了，因为归根结底，这不是你的错。” |
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