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| BRUSSELS — After the collapse of the Soviet Union, some asked whether NATO had any real reason to exist. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave new urgency to NATO as a defensive alliance aimed at deterring Moscow. |
| 布鲁塞尔——苏联解体后，一些人质疑北约是否还有存在的任何实际理由。但俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵为北约作为威慑莫斯科的防御联盟赋予了新的紧迫性。 |
| Now, at its annual summit meeting this week in Madrid, leaders of the 30 members of NATO are set to agree on the most significant overhaul of the alliance’s defenses since the Cold War. |
| 现在，本周在马德里举行的年度峰会上，针对北约防御系统最为重大的改革，北约30个成员国的领导人将达成一致。 |
| There will be a large increase in the number of troops assigned to defend NATO’s eastern flank, closest to Russia and Belarus, with a major commitment to position heavy military equipment there, like tanks and artillery, that would bolster an allied response to any Russian threat or aggression. |
| 北约将大幅增加东翼的防御力量，也就是最接近俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的一侧，并承诺在那里部署坦克和大炮等重型军事装备，以加强盟国对俄罗斯威胁或侵略的回应。 |
| There will also be statements of unity on Ukraine, despite internal debates within the alliance on how long the war will take, how it will end and its mounting costs to NATO and European allies. |
| 尽管在战争的持续时间、结束方式以及北约和欧洲盟国付出的代价越来越大等问题上，联盟内部存在不同意见，但峰会将就乌克兰问题发表统一声明。 |
| “The summit will show western solidarity as we go into a period of high gas prices and food scarcity, with Russia willing now to use both as weapons of war,” said Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “So we know that and can still hang together.” |
| “我们进入了高油价和粮食短缺的时期，现在俄罗斯愿意将两者用作战争武器，在这个时候，峰会将展示西方的团结，”美国企业研究所外交和国防政策研究主任科里·沙克表示。“所以我们清楚这一点，而且仍然可以团结在一起。” |
| At the same time, she said, debates about the future are rumbling among member countries. “The lesson the U.S. is tempted to take away from Ukraine is the incapacity of the Russian military, suggesting that Europe should be able to handle the burden of European security,” Ms. Schake said. “But the European lesson is that unless the U.S. is at the center of the Western response, there will be no Western response, so they’re trying to lock in American involvement.” |
| 与此同时，她说，成员国之间正在就未来展开辩论。“美国觉得通过乌克兰战争可以看到俄罗斯军队的无能，这表明欧洲应该有能力承担欧洲的安全责任，”沙克说。“但欧洲则希望籍此表明，除非以美国为中心，否则就称不上是西方的反应，因此它们正努力留住美国的参与。” |
| In Madrid, the alliance will also approve its first updated mission statement in 12 years, portraying a world of new perils, with threats not just from Russia but also China, an American priority, and from new forms of warfare ranging from cyber and artificial intelligence to disinformation and restrictions on energy, food and rare minerals. |
| 在马德里峰会上，北约还将批准其12年来首次更新的使命宣言，描绘出一个充满各种新危险的世界，威胁不仅来自俄罗斯，还来自美国重点关注的中国，以及各种新的战争形式——从网络、人工智能到虚假信息，以及对能源、食品和稀有矿物的限制等等。 |
| The mission statement, known as the strategic concept, frames defense planning, spending and resource allocation throughout the alliance. It sounds arcane but has been hotly debated, with France and Germany insisting on describing a rising China as a “challenge” to the trans-Atlantic security order, not as a “threat,” as Russia has clearly become. |
| 这个使命宣言被称为战略概念，将为整个联盟的国防规划、支出和资源分配制定框架。这听起来讳莫如深，却是经过激烈讨论的，法国和德国坚持将崛起的中国描述为对跨大西洋安全秩序的“挑战”，而不是像俄罗斯那样，已明显成为“威胁”。 |
| There will also be discussion on how to convince Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, to remove his effective veto over the applications of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, a matter that inevitably will have to involve President Biden. |
| 峰会还将讨论如何说服土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安取消他对瑞典和芬兰申请加入北约的有效否决权，这一问题将不可避免地需要拜登总统的介入。 |
| One of the other key debates during the summit, which runs from Tuesday evening through Thursday, will be the issue of new NATO troops along the eastern flank — how many, how they are deployed, and how permanent they will be. |
| 峰会从周二晚间持续到周四，关于加强北约东翼的军力部署也是重要议题之一，包括其规模、部署方式，以及是否永久部署。 |
| As the war in Ukraine has proceeded, NATO has established four more multinational battalion-sized groups in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia, to add to the ones already established in 2017 — following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 — in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. |
| 随着乌克兰战争的进行，北约已在罗马尼亚、保加利亚、匈牙利和斯洛伐克另外建立了四个营级多国部队战斗群，这是对北约2017年在爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛和波兰建立的多国战斗群的补充。 |
| The Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are pressing for larger permanent deployments, to move from the current “tripwire” defense — the roughly 1,500 rotating NATO troops in each country — to “deterrence by denial,” which would involve more permanent deployments of up to a division of American troops, as Estonia has been demanding. |
| 爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛等波罗的海国家正在敦促进行更大规模的永久性部署，从目前的“绊索”防御（每个国家约1500名北约轮换部队）转向“拒止性威慑”，如爱沙尼亚所要求的那样，这将涉及更加永久性地部署高达师级规模的美军。 |
| They want the larger deployments to better defend all NATO territory from any conflict at its very start, fearing that they would be quickly overrun by Russian forces otherwise. |
| 它们希望更大规模的部署能够从一开始就更好地保护所有北约领土免受任何冲突的影响，否则它们担心会很快被俄罗斯军队占领。 |
| The secretary-general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said recently that allies could agree “to strengthen battle groups in the east up to brigade level,” which would bring them to between 3,000 and 5,000 troops. |
| 北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格最近表示，盟国可以同意“将东翼战斗群加强到旅级”，这将使兵力达到3000至5000人。 |
| A permanent American division is not in the cards. Mr. Biden is expected to announce new deployments of another one or two brigade combat teams to bring the assigned level of American troops in Europe to about 100,000, up from some 70,000 before the Russian invasion, NATO officials said. |
| 永久部署一个美国师级部队是不可能的。北约官员说，拜登预计将宣布新部署另外一两个旅级战斗队，使美国在欧洲的驻军从俄罗斯入侵前的约7万人增加到约10万人。 |
| But they are likely to be kept in Germany and Poland, ready to move in times of threat or conflict to pre-assigned countries where they will also train with pre-positioned equipment. |
| 但他们很可能驻扎在德国和波兰，随时准备在面临威胁或冲突时前往预先分配的国家，在那里他们将使用预先部署的设备进行训练。 |
| Other NATO allies are increasing their deployments, too, with Germany announcing the addition of 500 troops to its forces in the multinational battlegroup it leads in Lithuania, plus the pre-assignment of some 3,000 more troops in case of trouble. |
| 其他北约盟国也在加强部署，德国宣布将增加500名士兵加入它在立陶宛指挥的多国战斗群，并预先分配了约3000名士兵，在有需要的时候派驻立陶宛。 |
| There has been criticism from the Baltic nations that those troops will be stationed in Germany. But the German government and other allies argue that it is too expensive to build permanent barracks and schools to house troops and their families in other countries when they can arrive quickly to the battlefield from established bases in places like Germany. |
| 这批部队将驻扎在德国，这一点遭到了波罗的海国家的批评。但德国政府和其他盟国认为，这些部队可以从德国等地的现有基地迅速抵达战场，而在其他国家建造永久性军营和学校来安置部队及其家属的成本太高。 |
| “They argue that you need large forces in the country like a Maginot line to prevent them from being overrun early in a conflict,” said Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and head of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, referring to the Baltic countries. “But that’s not the best way to defend them, because these countries are too small for real, regular training, which you can do in Poland or Germany. Better to have them there and constantly train them and rotate them regularly.” |
| “他们认为，在国内需要有像马其诺防线那样的大规模部队，才能防止他们在冲突初期被攻破。”芝加哥全球事务委员会负责人、前美国驻北约大使伊沃·达尔德表示。他指的是那些波罗的海国家。“但这不是保护它们的最佳方式，因为这些国家太小，无法进行真正的、定期的训练，就像他们在波兰或德国所做的那种训练。最好让那些部队留在那里，不断地进行训练，定期进行轮换。” |
| The issue is now more sensitive, with Moscow accusing Lithuania of blocking its rail shipments to its heavily armed enclave of Kaliningrad in line with E.U. sanctions against Russia, and threatening reprisals. Lithuanian and European officials say there is no blockade against the enclave, which is on the Baltic Sea, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. But the narrow strip of some 60 miles between Belarus and Kaliningrad, known as the Suwalki Gap, is considered vulnerable. |
| 这个问题现在变得更加敏感，莫斯科指责立陶宛按照欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁措施封锁了通往其布有重兵的飞地加里宁格勒的铁路运输，并威胁要进行报复。立陶宛和欧洲官员表示，他们没有对这个位于波罗的海、夹在波兰和立陶宛之间的飞地进行封锁。但这个在白俄罗斯和加里宁格勒之间约60英里（约合96公里）、名为苏瓦尔基峡谷的狭长地带被认为是易受攻击的。 |
| The anxiety among the Baltic countries is justified, said Ms. Schake. “I would want more NATO deployments too if I were them, because they live exposed,” she said. “For smaller countries, proximity to a Russia that would negate Ukraine is scary.” |
| 舍克说，波罗的海国家的焦虑是有道理的。“如果我是他们，我也希望有更多的北约部署，因为他们生活在危险之中，”她说。“对于较小的国家来说，靠近一个会否认乌克兰存在的俄罗斯是很可怕的。” |
| Since the start of the war, NATO has activated its “response force,” now 40,000 troops, under NATO command. Mr. Stoltenberg said on Monday that the force would be expanded to 300,000. It is expected to be rebranded as the Allied Response Force, and will include more troops based in their home countries but pre-assigned to the eastern flank if needed. |
| 自战争开始以来，北约启动了其“反应部队”，现在有4万名士兵在北约的指挥下。斯托尔滕贝格周一表示，这支部队将扩大到30万人。预计这支部队将被重新命名为联合反应部队，并将包括更多驻扎在各自国家的部队，但在需要时将被预先分配到东翼。 |
| Mr. Daalder sees another fault line in the different perceptions of the Russian threat among NATO members. Some, especially in former Soviet-bloc nations, believe that “Russia has fundamentally changed everything and we’re back to a Cold War alliance, and we have to hold the line from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea,” he said, referring to NATO’s northern and southern reaches. |
| 达尔德还发现，北约成员国对俄罗斯威胁的看法存在另一个分歧。一些国家，尤其是前苏联集团的国家，认为“俄罗斯已经从根本上改变了一切，我们回到了冷战时期的联盟，我们必须守住从巴伦支海到黑海的防线，”他说，这里指的是北约从北部到南部的范围。 |
| And there are other members of the alliance, including the United States, Italy and Spain, which say there are other important threats too — from terrorism, climate change and mass migration. And then there is China’s inexorable rise as a technically advanced rival seeking global influence. |
| 美国、意大利和西班牙等北约其他成员国表示，还有其他重要威胁，包括恐怖主义、气候变化和大规模移民。还有就是中国不可阻挡的崛起，作为一个技术先进的对手，它正在寻求全球影响力。 |
| There is also the question of how big NATO should be — not just in light of the potential addition of Finland and Sweden, but also its 2008 promise that Ukraine and Georgia would one day be full members, Mr. Daalder said. Both the European Union and NATO have now promised Ukraine paths to membership, but have been vague about that commitment. “I don’t think NATO can just walk away from it in Madrid, as some would like,” he said. |
| 达尔德说，还有一个问题是北约的规模应该有多大——不仅是芬兰和瑞典有可能加入，而且北约在2008年承诺乌克兰和格鲁吉亚有朝一日会成为正式成员国。欧盟和北约现在都承诺乌克兰有加入的途径，但对该承诺的表述都很模糊。“我不认为北约可以像一些人希望的那样，在马德里对此避而不谈，”他说。 |
| And as ever, there will be debates about increases in military spending, about NATO’s own budget and about burden-sharing, not only between the United States and its allies but between the European Union and NATO. |
| 与以往一样，还会有关于增加军事开支、北约自身预算和负担分摊的讨论，不仅是美国及其盟国之间的讨论，还有欧盟和北约之间的讨论。 |
| Christopher Skaluba, a security expert at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security of the Atlantic Council, said that “following the money at NATO is always a smart idea.” NATO allies make commitments, “but they’re easier to say than do, and inflation makes everything more expensive,” he said. |
| 大西洋理事会斯考克罗夫特战略与安全中心的安全专家克里斯托弗·斯卡鲁巴表示，“在北约，跟着钱走始终是一个明智的想法。”他说，北约盟国作出了承诺，“但是说起来容易做起来难，而且通货膨胀使一切都变得更加昂贵。” |
| “The cost of failing to deter Russia from going into Ukraine is very high, and we’re all paying the price for it, the Ukrainians most of all,” Mr. Skaluba said. The pressure to walk back from the alliance’s commitments, he said, “will be real, too.” |
| “未能阻止俄罗斯进入乌克兰的代价非常高昂，我们都在为此付出代价，尤其是乌克兰人，”斯卡鲁巴说。他还说，放弃联盟承诺的压力“也很真切”。 |
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