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| MUNICH — President Biden is leading an effort to manipulate the oil market at a scale the world has rarely seen, embracing cartel-like tactics in an aggressive but risky attempt to undermine Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. |
| 慕尼黑——拜登总统正在领导一场规模罕见的石油市场操控，不惜采用卡特尔式的手法，试图以一种激进而冒险的方式破坏俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争行动。 |
| At the Group of 7 nations meeting this week in the Bavarian Alps, Mr. Biden has attempted to assemble an upside-down version of OPEC, the world’s most powerful oil cartel, with the goal of soothing consumers burned at the gasoline pump and, if the allies get their way, helping to speed the end of the war. |
| 本周在巴伐利亚阿尔卑斯山举行的七国集团会议上，拜登试图组建一个颠倒版的欧佩克——世界上最强大的石油卡特尔，其目的是安抚那些深受油价高涨之苦的消费者，同时——如果事情能按联盟的构想发展——有助于让战争尽快结束。 |
| Instead of limiting supply to maximize revenues for countries selling oil, as a cartel does, Mr. Biden is trying to minimize how much one particular seller — Moscow — reaps from each barrel. He led his Group of 7 counterparts to agree on Tuesday to a plan that would cap the price of Russian oil, as a way of driving down the revenue President Vladimir V. Putin is deriving from his most important export. |
| 与通过限制供应以实现出售国收入最大化的石油卡特尔不同，拜登想让某一个具体的售方——莫斯科——的石油收入最小化。在他的带领下，七国集团领导人在周二同意了一项计划，将给俄罗斯石油的价格设置上限，从而减少普京总统从他最重要的出口中获得的收入。 |
| “Some people are calling it an inverse OPEC,” said Simon Johnson, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who has been involved in discussions about how such a cap might work. “This is a cartel that is attempting to discriminate between Russian oil and other oil, creating a wedge, which may or may not drive down global prices.” |
| “有人说这是反向欧佩克，”麻省理工学院经济学家西蒙·约翰逊说，他参与了有关如何进行这种限制的讨论。“这是一种卡特尔，试图将俄罗斯石油和其它石油区别对待，在中间插入一个楔子，这也许能、也许不能推动全球油价下跌。” |
| The plan is an economist’s invention — specifically Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury secretary and former chair of the Federal Reserve — and nowhere near fully baked. It is theoretically quite powerful, so much so that Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy is pushing hard for Europe to adopt a similar price cap on imports of Russian natural gas. |
| 这项计划是经济学家的发明——具体来说就是财政部长、前美联储主席珍妮特·L·耶伦——并且还远没有成熟。它在理论上是十分强大的，以至于意大利总理马里奥·德拉吉正在奋力呼吁对欧洲的俄罗斯天然气进口也设置类似的价格上限。 |
| Some energy experts doubt the price cap would work, if negotiators can even agree on how to structure and implement it. Potential problems abound: Big buyers of Russian oil, like China and India, might refuse to play along. Mr. Putin could decide it would be more lucrative to cap some Russian wells, pulling a million barrels a day or more off the world market, creating a shortage that would cause prices to spike even further. |
| 有能源专家怀疑限价能否起作用，何况还需要谈判各方得在它的结构和执行上先达成一致才行。像中国和印度这样的俄罗斯石油大买家可能会拒绝加入。普京可能会认定关闭一部分俄罗斯油井可以保持更好的盈利，这就意味着每天从世界市场中减少上百万桶的供应，导致进一步推高油价的短缺。 |
| But Biden administration officials insist the plan is their best chance to deprive Mr. Putin of cash for his war effort and possibly relieve some pain for American drivers. |
| 但是拜登政府官员坚称，这是让普京的战争失去资金来源的最佳方案，可能还可以缓解美国驾车者的痛苦。 |
| “Limiting the cost of Russian oil will put downward pressure on global energy prices,” Ms. Yellen said in a news release, “in a way that dampens the impact of Putin’s war on the U.S. economy.” |
| “限制俄罗斯石油价格可以对全球能源价格形成下行压力，”耶伦在一份新闻通稿中说，“由此可以削弱普京的战争对美国经济的冲击。” |
| To understand why the West has settled on this complicated, untested idea for its latest attempt to combat both Russian aggression and the rising inflation that has swamped global consumers, it is helpful to revisit some basic economics. |
| 要理解为什么西方会选中这样一个复杂且未经验证的想法，让它成为应对俄罗斯侵犯和淹没全球消费者的高通胀的最新尝试，有必要重温一些基础经济学。 |
| After Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States and its allies moved to ban imports of Russian oil in retaliation, hoping to cut off the key source of revenue for its war machine. But global prices soared in response, outweighing the loss in the volume of Russian sales, and Moscow’s oil revenues continued to flow in. |
| 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，美国及其盟友以禁止进口俄罗斯石油作为回击，希望切断其战争机器的关键收入来源。但是全球价格因此暴涨，其影响盖过了俄罗斯的销量损失，莫斯科仍然在获得源源不断的石油收入。 |
| That price spike is the sort of thing that can happen when oil producers collectively decide to pull supply off the market. Those producers are using their large power over the market to effectively pick the price that is best for them. That price is higher than an efficient market would set. Consumers suffer the consequences. |
| 当石油生产商集体决定从市场上撤出供应时，这种价格飙升就会发生。这些生产商实际上正在利用他们对市场的强大影响力来选择最适合他们的价格。这个价格高于有效市场设定的价格。后果由消费者承担。 |
| What the Group of 7 is trying to do is a similar show of market-power force, but in the opposite direction. The price cap idea that the finance ministers now have to develop would seek to keep Russian oil on the market, in order to avoid further strains on global supply and spiking prices. One analyst firm, Barclays, projects prices could reach $200 a barrel by next year if most of Moscow’s exports were knocked offline. |
| 七国集团试图做出类似的市场力量展示，但朝着相反的方向。财政部长现在需要制定出的价格上限想法将寻求让俄罗斯石油留在市场上，以避免全球供应进一步紧张和价格飙升。分析公司巴克莱预计，如果莫斯科的大部分出口撤下市场，明年油价可能会达到每桶200美元。 |
| The crux of the price cap is that the West, which controls much of the means and financing that Russia currently needs to ship its oil, would assemble a coalition of oil buyers and private companies in fields like insurance and shipping that would essentially give Moscow an ultimatum: sell your oil at a steep discount, or don’t sell it at all. |
| 设置价格上限的关键在于，西方控制着俄罗斯目前运输石油所需的大部分手段和资金，它们将在保险和航运等领域组建一个由石油买家和私营公司组成的联盟，这基本上是给莫斯科发出最后通牒：以极低的折扣出售你的石油，要不干脆别卖。 |
| In a best-case scenario, that ultimatum would be issued swiftly, backed by a broad coalition of countries and private companies. The price of oil might fall quickly, if traders expect Russian oil to keep flowing to the market, more cheaply, for the near future. |
| 在最好的情况下，这个最后通牒将迅速发出，并得到广泛的国家和私营公司联盟的支持。如果交易员预计俄罗斯石油在不久的将来会以更低的价格继续流入市场，石油价格可能会迅速下跌。 |
| In their final statement from the summit, the Group of 7 leaders said that they would consider “a range of approaches,” including “a possible comprehensive prohibition of all services, which enable transportation of Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products globally, unless the oil is purchased at or below a price to be agreed in consultation with international partners.” |
| 七国集团领导人在峰会的最后声明中表示，他们将考虑“一系列方法”，包括“使俄罗斯能够在全球范围内运输俄罗斯海运原油和石油产品的服务可能会被全面禁止，除非这些石油能以国际伙伴协商商定的价格或更低价格购买”。 |
| The leaders, President Emmanuel Macron of France said after the meeting, want to “better manage oil and gas prices” by “freeing up more volume but also by having a concerted discussion between major buyer countries.” |
| 法国总统马克龙在会后表示，领导人希望“在放量的同时在主要购买国之间进行协调讨论”，从而“更好地管理石油和天然气价格”。 |
| The sheer quirkiness of the plan — its inverse logic and the opening it leaves Mr. Putin to simply shut down exports to the West — underscores the frustration the United States and its allies feel that the measures taken so far have not blunted Russian war efforts. |
| 该计划的独特之处——它的逆向逻辑，以及给普京留下了干脆关闭对西方出口这个机会——凸显了美国及其盟国的沮丧，它们迄今为止所采取的措施并未削弱俄罗斯的战争。 |
| There are a lot of reasons this effort might fail, too. Officials cannot yet say how many buyer countries would need to sign on — or at least, not actively seek to undermine the plan by making side deals with Russia — to guarantee effectiveness. They also cannot say how quickly the details could come together, and how negotiators like Ms. Yellen might bring entire industries, like oil tankers and shipping insurance, on board. |
| 这种努力也可能失败，原因有很多。在保证其有效性方面，官员们还不能确定有多少购买国需要签署合约，或至少不积极寻求通过与俄罗斯达成附带协议来对该计划造成破坏。他们也无法说明能以多快的速度出台细节，以及像耶伦这样的谈判代表如何让油轮和航运保险等整个行业参与进来。 |
| Political pressures could complicate the details. Asked about the price cap after the summit, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany called it “very ambitious and demanding,” reflecting the likely difficulty of reaching an agreement on the idea among the 27 member countries of the European Union. |
| 政治上的压力可能会让细节更加复杂。峰会结束后，德国总理朔尔茨在被问及限价措施时表示，该计划“十分艰巨，要求苛刻”，这说明欧盟27个成员国要在这个问题上达成一致可能存在困难。 |
| European leaders have struggled to reach the necessary consensus on moving against Russian energy, amid fears that Moscow could stop deliveries of oil, and especially natural gas, risking supplies ahead of the winter and driving record prices even higher. |
| 在对抗俄罗斯能源的战争中，欧洲领导人始终难以达成必要共识，他们担心俄罗斯可能停止石油尤其还有天然气的供应，引发冬季前的供应危机，并进一步推高已在纪录高位的价格。 |
| Some analysts say the sheer complexity that slowed the Group of 7 leaders’ embrace of the plan could blunt the market reaction the leaders are hoping to engineer. |
| 有分析人士表示，导致七国集团领导人迟迟不肯接受该计划的复杂情况可能会打击这些领导人原本希望能够打造的市场反应。 |
| “The price cap policy would not put Russia under the immediate fiscal stress many expect,” Mark Mozur, a market analyst for S&P Global Commodity Insights, wrote on Tuesday. “Nor can markets be expected to interpret a potential cap the way the Biden administration might want them to.” |
| “限价政策并不会像许多人预期的那样，让俄罗斯立刻陷入财政压力，”标普全球洞察的市场分析师马克·莫泽尔周二写道。“市场也不会按照拜登政府可能希望的方式来解读可能的价格上限。” |
| Perhaps the most elemental danger is that the leaders will set the wrong cap for the price — one that fails to minimize Mr. Putin’s profits and potentially pushes a lot of oil off the market. The political backlash in that case could be immense. In the energy world, it is a familiar fear: Cartels don’t always calculate correctly — and they are not always as powerful as they imagine. |
| 最大的危险或许在于，领导人可能会设定错误的价格上限——不仅不能将普京的利润最小化，还可能导致大量石油退出市场。若真如此，政治上的反作用可能是巨大的。能源领域一贯存在的担忧就是：卡特尔的计算并不总是准确——而且它们也不一定有它们自己想象的那么强大。 |
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