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新冠免疫力能持续多久?再次感染会更严重吗?
How Long Does Covid Immunity Last? Will a Second Illness Be Worse? How Can I Prepare?

来源:纽约时报    2022-06-13 05:59



        If you’re one of the millions of Americans who have already had Covid-19, you may be wondering how long you will have immunity from the coronavirus. Earlier in the pandemic, most people assumed that getting infected had at least one upside: that you would be protected against future encounters with the virus. But as the latest wave heads toward the Western region of the country and the virus shows no signs of easing up, reinfections seem to have become common. Already, many people are reporting second or even third infections with newer variants.        如果你是已经感染过新冠的无数美国人之一,那你可能想知道,你对新冠病毒的免疫力能维持多久。在疫情早期阶段,大多数人都以为,感染病毒至少还有一个好处:你以后不会再被感染了。但随着最近一波感染浪潮在美国西部地区蔓延,且病毒感染力没有出现任何下降的趋势,再次感染似乎已是家常便饭。已经有很多人报告说,他们再次甚至是第三次感染了较新的变异株。
        Experts have warned that exposure to the coronavirus — through vaccination or infection — does not mean that you are completely protected from future infections. Rather, the coronavirus is evolving to behave more like its closely related cousins, which cause common colds and infect people repeatedly throughout their lives.        专家曾警告称,无论是通过疫苗接种还是直接感染,接触新冠病毒并不意味着你彻底免除了未来感染的风险。相反,新冠病毒正进化得更像它那些近亲,会导致普通感冒,也会让人一生中反复感染。
        “I’ve thought, almost since the beginning of this pandemic, that Covid-19 is eventually going to become an inevitable infection that everybody gets multiple times, because that’s just how a new respiratory virus gets established in the human population,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University.        “几乎是在疫情刚开始的时候,我就认为新冠最终会变成一种不可避免感染的病毒,人人都会多次感染,因为新型呼吸道病毒都是以这种方式扎根在人群之中的,”约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的传染病专家阿梅什·阿达尔贾表示。
        However, the coronavirus doesn’t yet fit into clear seasonal patterns like the other common cold viruses. It can also cause debilitating symptoms that persist for months or years in some people, and has claimed the lives of millions of others. So what can you do to protect yourself, not only from infection but also reinfection? We asked experts for answers to common questions.        然而,新冠病毒目前尚与其他常见的感冒病毒不同,并不具备明确的季节性传播模式。它还会导致一些人出现持续数月或数年的衰弱症状,并已夺去无数人的生命。那么,为了防止感染和再次感染,你能做些什么来保护自己呢?我们向专家咨询到了一些常见问题的答案。
        How long will my immunity last after getting Covid?        感染新冠后,我的免疫力能维持多久?
        Before Omicron, reinfections were rare. A team of scientists, led by Laith Abu-Raddad at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, estimated that a bout with Delta or an earlier coronavirus strain was roughly 90 percent effective in preventing a reinfection in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. “But Omicron really changed that calculus,” said Dr. Abu-Raddad, an infectious disease epidemiologist.        在奥密克戎出现以前,再次感染的情况很少见。由莱斯·阿布-拉达德领导的一个卡塔尔威尔康奈尔医学院科学家小组估计,在已接种和未接种疫苗的人中,感染一次德尔塔或是更早的新冠病毒变异株在预防再次感染方面的有效性约为90%。“但奥密克戎的确改变了这一数字,”传染病流行病学家阿布-拉达德说。
        After Omicron emerged, prior infections only provided about 50 percent protection against reinfection, Dr. Abu-Raddad’s study showed. The coronavirus had acquired so many mutations in its spike protein that newer versions became more transmissible and better able to evade immunity. That means you can catch a version of Omicron after recovering from an older, non-Omicron variant. You can even get sick with one of the newer Omicron subvariants after getting over a different version of it.        阿布-拉达德的研究发现,奥密克戎出现后,过往感染对再次感染的防护率仅在50%左右。新冠病毒的刺突蛋白发生了大量突变,导致新的变异株传染性更强,逃避免疫的效果更好。这意味着你在更早的、非奥密克戎的新冠感染中康复后,还是会感染奥密克戎。你甚至可能会在感染一种奥密克戎变异株之后,又因为另一种更新型的奥密克戎亚型株出现病症。
        Other factors also increase your vulnerability to reinfection, starting with how long it has been since you had Covid. Immune defenses tend to wane after an infection. A study published in October 2021 estimated that reinfection could occur as soon as 3 months after contracting Covid-19. While these findings were based on the genome of the coronavirus and accounted for expected declines in antibodies that could fight off the virus, the study did not account for new variants like Omicron that were radically different from older variants. Because of how different Omicron is, your protection may wane even sooner. In a study published in February that has not yet been peer-reviewed, scientists from Denmark found that some people got reinfected with the BA.2 sublineage of Omicron as soon as 20 days after they got infected with the original Omicron BA.1.        其他因素也会导致你对再次感染的抵御降低,首先就是距离你感染新冠已经过去了多久。免疫系统的防御力会在感染之后衰减。2021年10月发表的一项研究估计,人在感染新冠病毒三个月后可能会被再次感染。虽然这是基于新冠病毒基因组的研究结果,也解释了可对抗病毒的抗体的预期下降,但该研究并未考虑到奥密克戎这类与以往变异株完全不同的新型变异株。由于奥密克戎极为独特,可能导致人体防御力衰减得更快。在今年2月发表的一项尚未经过同行评议的研究中,来自丹麦的科学家发现,一些人在感染最初的奥密克戎BA.1病毒20天后,就再次感染了奥密克戎BA.2亚型株。
        Because the virus is infecting more people now, your chances of being exposed and getting reinfected are also higher, Dr. Abu-Raddad said.         阿布-拉达德说,由于病毒现在感染了更多人,接触病毒并被再次感染的几率也增加了。
        Will subsequent infections be more or less severe?        接下来的感染症状会更重还是更轻?
        The good news is that your body can call on immune cells, like T cells and B cells, to quash a reinfection if the virus sneaks past your initial antibody defenses. T cells and B cells can take a few days to get activated and start working, but they tend to remember how to battle the virus based on previous encounters.        好消息是你的身体可以召唤T细胞、B细胞等免疫细胞,一旦病毒悄悄绕过了抗体防御,它们可以抑制再次感染。T细胞和B细胞的激活和生效需要几天的时间,不过它们一般会记住上一次和病毒遭遇时是如何战斗的。
        “Your immune system has all kinds of weapons to try and stop the virus even if it gets past the front door,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in California.        “你的免疫系统会尝试用各种武器阻止病毒,即使病毒突破了第一道门,”加州拉霍亚免疫研究所病毒学家谢恩·克罗蒂说。
        Many of these immune cells build up their protections iteratively, Dr. Crotty said. That means that people who are vaccinated and boosted are especially well equipped to duke it out with the coronavirus. Similarly, people who have been infected before are able to keep the virus from replicating at high levels if they get reinfected. And most people who have logged encounters with both the vaccine and the coronavirus build up a hybrid immunity that may offer the best protection.        克罗蒂说,其中一些免疫细胞会逐步建立起防护。这就意味着一旦再次感染,打了疫苗和加强针的人可以更好地确保病毒不会进行高水平的复制。绝大多数遭遇过疫苗和冠状病毒的人都会建起一种混合免疫力,可能会提供最佳的保护。
        The result is that second or third infections are likely to be shorter and less severe.        这样一来,第二次或第三次感染的时间就会更短,症状也更轻。
        Dr. Abu-Raddad, who has been tracking reinfections among large groups of people in Qatar, has already started seeing this promising pattern in patient records: Of more than 1,300 reinfections that his team identified from the beginning of the pandemic to May 2021, none led to hospitalization in an I.C.U., and none were fatal.        阿布-拉达德一直在卡塔尔跟踪观测大规模人群再感染,此前他就已经在病例中发现了一个令人欣喜的规律:他的团队从2021年5月大流行之初至今识别了超过1300例再感染,没有一例导致病人进入ICU,没有一例死亡。
        But just because reinfections are less severe, it doesn’t mean that they are not terrible. You may still run a fever and experience body aches, brain fog and other symptoms. And there’s no way of knowing if your symptoms will linger and become long Covid, Dr. Adalja said.        但是,再感染的强度较低并不意味着不可怕。阿达尔贾说,你可能还是会发烧,身体感到疼痛,昏昏沉沉,变成长期新冠。
        What can you do to reduce your risk of reinfection?
        可以做些什么来降低再感染的风险呢?
        Many of the tools and behaviors that help protect against infection can still help you avoid reinfection, Dr. Abu-Raddad said. “There is no magical solution against Covid reinfection.”        阿布-拉达德说,许多感染防护的手段和行为同样也可以用于避免再感染。“对于新冠再感染,并没有什么特别神奇的解决办法。”
        Getting vaccinated and boosted, for example, is a good idea even after you’ve had Covid. You only need to wait a few weeks after an infection to get a shot. The vaccines will bolster your antibody levels, and research shows that they are effective in preventing severe outcomes if you get sick again. “Scientific confidence in vaccine-induced immunity was and is much higher than infection-induced immunity,” Dr. Crotty said.        例如接种疫苗和加强针就是好办法,即使你已经得过新冠。你只需要在感染后等几周再去接种。疫苗会提高你的抗体水平,研究显示一旦再次得病,疫苗可以避免出现严重的后果。“无论之前还是现在,相比对感染带来的免疫力的信心,科学上对疫苗带来的免疫力的信心要大得多,”克罗蒂说。
        Additional measures, like masking indoors and in crowded spaces, social distancing and improving ventilation where possible, can provide another layer of protection. But because most people and communities have largely dropped these protections, it is up to individuals to decide when to adopt extra precautions based on their risk of getting Covid and how much they’d like to avoid it.        一些额外的措施,比如在室内和人群密集空间戴口罩、保持社交距离和尽可能改善通风,会提供另一层保护。不过,由于大多数人和社区已经基本上放弃这类防护,是否加倍小心已经成为一种个人选择,根据各自感染新冠的风险以及避免感染的意愿来决定。
                
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