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| For large and small nations around the globe, the prospect of averting a recession is fading. |
| 对于全球大大小小的国家来说，避开经济衰退的希望日渐渺茫。 |
| That grim prognosis came in a report Tuesday from the World Bank, which warned that the grinding war in Ukraine, supply chain chokeholds, Covid-related lockdowns in China, and dizzying rises in energy and food prices are exacting a growing toll on economies all along the income ladder. This suite of problems is “hammering growth,” David Malpass, the bank’s president, said in a statement. “For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid.” |
| 世界银行周二在一份报告中提出了这一严峻的预测，该报告警告，乌克兰的激烈战争、供应链堵塞、中国与新冠疫情相关的封锁，加上令人眩晕的能源和食品价格上涨都正在对收入阶梯上的所有经济体造成越来越大的损失。这一系列问题正在“冲击增长”，世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯在声明中表示。“对于许多国家来说，经济衰退将难以避免。” |
| World growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent this year from 5.7 percent in 2021. The outlook, delivered in the bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, is not only darker than one produced six months ago, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but also below the 3.6 percent forecast in April by the International Monetary Fund. |
| 预计今年世界经济增长将从2021年的5.7%放缓至2.9%。该行《全球经济展望》报告中发布的这个数字，不仅比六个月前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前发布的预期更为黯淡，也低于国际货币基金组织今年4月预测的3.6%。 |
| Growth is expected to remain muted next year. And for the remainder of this decade, it is forecast to fall below the average achieved in the previous decade. |
| 预计明年的增长也将保持低迷。在这个十年剩余的时间里，预计经济增速将低于上一个十年的平均水平。 |
| Other than a handful of oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia, which are benefiting from prices above $100 a barrel, there is barely a spot on the globe that has not seen its outlook dim. Among the most advanced economies like the United States and Europe, growth is forecast to slow to 2.5 percent this year. |
| 除了沙特阿拉伯等少数石油出口国受益于每桶100美元以上的油价外，全球几乎没有哪个国家的经济前景是光明的。在美国和欧洲等最发达经济体中，预计今年的经济增长将放缓至2.5%。 |
| China, the second-largest economy and the engine of much of the world’s increasing prosperity in recent decades, is projected to see growth drop to 4.3 percent from 8.1 percent in 2021. |
| 中国是世界第二大经济体，也是近几十年来世界大部分地区日益繁荣的引擎，预计其增速将从2021年的8.1%降至4.3%。 |
| Emerging nations will experience the harshest setback, with the blows from the pandemic and the Ukraine war still reverberating. The poorest nations will grow poorer, hungrier and less secure. |
| 新兴国家遭受的挫折将最为严重，疫情和乌克兰战争造成的打击仍在持续产生影响。最贫穷的国家将变得更贫穷、更饥饿、更不安全。 |
| Roughly 75 million more people will face extreme poverty than were expected to before the pandemic. |
| 与疫情之前的预期相比，极端贫困人口将增加约7500万人。 |
| Per capita income in developing economies is also expected to fall 5 percent below where it was headed before the pandemic hit, the World Bank report said. At the same time, government debt loads are getting heavier, a burden that will grow as interest rates increase and raise the cost of borrowing. |
| 世界银行的报告称，发展中经济体的人均收入预计也将比疫情之前下降5%。与此同时，政府的债务负担越来越重，随着利率的上升和借贷成本的提高，这种负担还会加重。 |
| “In Egypt more than half of the population is eligible for subsidized bread,” said Beata Javorcik, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. “Now, that’s going to be much more expensive for government coffers, and it’s happening where countries are already more indebted than before.” |
| “在埃及，超过半数人口有资格获得价格经过补贴的馕，”欧洲复兴开发银行首席经济学家贝娅塔·亚沃尔奇克表示。 “现在，对国库来说，补贴的成本更高了，而且这种情况发生在那些负债已经加重的国家。” |
| In some ways, the bank said, the economic threats mirror those in the 1970s, when spiraling oil shocks followed by rising interest rates caused a paralyzing stagflation, or a menacing combination of high prices and low growth. That combination of events triggered a series of financial crises that rocked developing nations, resulting in what was known as a “lost decade” of growth. |
| 该银行表示，在某些方面，当前的经济威胁与1970年代的情况类似，当时不断上升的油价冲击紧接着利率上升，造成令经济瘫痪的滞胀，也就是高物价和低增长的可怕组合。它们引发了一系列冲击发展中国家的金融危机，导致了经济增长出现所谓的“失去的十年”。 |
| Fortunately, the global economy and governments are better positioned to manage the challenging combination than they were 40 years ago, the World Bank said. The dollar is strong, as are the balance sheets of most financial institutions. Despite the sudden jump in energy prices, the increase is still not of the magnitude experienced in the 1970s. Central banks also have a credible record of managing inflation, which helps keep self-defeating inflationary expectations in check. |
| 世界银行表示，幸运的是，与40年前相比，全球经济和各国政府在应对这一挑战方面处于更有利的地位。美元走强，多数金融机构的资产负债表也走强。尽管能源价格突然飙升，但涨幅仍不及1970年代的水平。各国央行在管理通胀方面也有可靠的记录，这有助于抑制对自身不利的通胀预期。 |
| The United States, which has many fewer economic ties with Russia and is less dependent on Russian energy than Europe, is less vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war and retaliatory sanctions. |
| 与欧洲相比，美国与俄罗斯的经济联系少得多，对俄罗斯能源的依赖也少得多，因此不太容易受到乌克兰战争和报复性制裁的影响。 |
| “The war is expected to cause a major recession in Europe and Central Asia,” the report warned. “In addition to its tragic human toll, the invasion is expected to cause a devastating economic contraction in Ukraine this year, a sharp recession in Russia, and a significant slowdown” in the rest of the region. |
| “预计这场战争将导致欧洲和中亚的经济严重衰退，”该报告警告。“除了惨重的人员伤亡之外，入侵预计还将导致乌克兰今年出现毁灭性的经济萎缩，俄罗斯出现严重衰退，以及该地区其他国家的经济大幅放缓。” |
| Russia’s economy is expected to shrink 8.9 percent — a hefty reduction, though one that is smaller than predictions by other forecasters. |
| 俄罗斯经济预计将萎缩8.9%——这是一个巨大的降幅，尽管这个数字比其他预测者的估计要小。 |
| At the same time, Europe is dealing with one of the biggest waves of refugees since World War II as nearly seven million Ukrainians, predominantly women and children, have streamed across the border to avoid the violence. Even though some have returned home, the sudden strain on host countries’ budgets and resources further stresses economies when they are already under pressure. |
| 与此同时，由于近700万乌克兰人——主要是妇女和儿童——为了避免战争的暴力纷纷涌向边境，欧洲正在应对自“二战”以来最大的难民潮之一。尽管有些人已经返回家园，但收容国预算和资源的突然紧张进一步加剧了本已面临压力的经济。 |
| Spillover effects radiate outward. In some Central Asian countries, a significant chunk of the economy comprises remittances that citizens working in Russia send back home, Ms. Javorcik of the reconstruction and development bank said. Those payments are now reduced because of the downturn. Countries that benefit from Russian tourism, such as Cyprus, Armenia and Estonia, are also taking hits, she said. |
| 溢出效应向外辐射。欧洲复兴与开发银行的亚沃尔奇克说，在一些中亚国家，在俄罗斯工作的公民寄回国内的汇款是经济的重要组成部分。由于经济低迷，这些汇款现在减少了。她说，塞浦路斯、亚美尼亚和爱沙尼亚等受益于俄罗斯旅游业的国家，也受到了打击。 |
| Elsewhere, the impact can be more critical. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, Rwanda and Uganda, which rely heavily on grain exports from Russia and Ukraine to feed their populations, will have to confront high food prices for an extended period. |
| 在其他地方，影响可能更为严重。刚果民主共和国、马达加斯加、卢旺达和乌干达严重依赖俄罗斯和乌克兰的粮食出口，它们将不得不在较长时期内面对高昂的粮食价格。 |
| “Insecurity and violence continue to weigh on the outlook” for many low-income countries, the World Bank said, while “more rapid increases in living costs risk further escalating social unrest.” Several studies have pointed to rising food prices as an important trigger for the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. |
| 世界银行表示，“不安全和暴力继续对许多低收入国家的前景构成压力”，而“生活成本的加速增长可能会进一步加剧社会动荡”。多个研究指出，食品价格上涨是2011年阿拉伯之春起义的重要触发因素。 |
| In Latin American and the Caribbean, growth is expected to slow to 2.5 percent from 6.7 percent last year. India’s total output is forecast to drop to 7.5 percent from 8.7 percent, while Japan’s is expected to remain flat at 1.7 percent. |
| 在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，增长率预计将从去年的6.7%放缓至2.5%。印度的总产出预计将从8.7%降至7.5%，而日本预计将保持在1.7%的水平。 |
| The World Bank, founded in the shadow of World War II to help rebuild ravaged economies, provides financial support to low- and middle-income nations. It reiterated its familiar basket of remedies, which include limiting government spending, using interest rates to dampen inflation and avoiding trade restrictions, price controls and subsidies. |
| “二战”结束后不久成立的世界银行旨在帮助重建饱受蹂躏的经济，为中低收入国家提供财政支持。它重申了其熟悉的一揽子救助措施，包括限制政府支出、利用利率抑制通胀，以及避免贸易限制、价格控制和补贴。 |
| Managing to tame inflation without sending the economy into a tailspin is a difficult task no matter what the policy choices are — which is why the risks of stagflation are so high. |
| 无论选择何种政策，在不使经济陷入混乱的情况下控制通胀都是一项艰巨的任务——这就是滞胀风险如此之高的原因。 |
| At the same time, the United States, the European Union and allies are struggling to isolate Russia, starving it of resources to wage war, without crippling their own economies. Many countries in Europe, including Germany and Hungary, are heavily dependent on either Russian oil or gas. |
| 与此同时，美国、欧盟及其盟友正在竭尽全力孤立俄罗斯，使其失去发动战争的资源，同时又不至于削弱自己的经济。欧洲的许多国家，包括德国和匈牙利，都严重依赖俄罗斯的石油或天然气。 |
| The string of disasters — the pandemic, droughts and war — is injecting a large dose of uncertainty and draining confidence. |
| 一连串的灾难——大流行、干旱和战争——正在给人们带来大量的不确定性，消耗人们的信心。 |
| Among its economic prescriptions, the World Bank underscored that leaders should make it a priority to use public spending to shield the most vulnerable people. |
| 在其开出的经济处方中，世界银行强调各国领导人应将利用公共支出保护最弱势群体作为优先事项。 |
| That protection includes blunting the impact of rising food and energy prices as well as ensuring that low-income countries have sufficient supplies of Covid vaccines. So far, only 14 percent of people in low-income countries have been fully vaccinated. |
| 这种保护包括减轻食品和能源价格上涨的影响，以及确保低收入国家获得足够的新冠疫苗供应。到目前为止，低收入国家只有14%的人完全接种了疫苗。 |
| “Renewed outbreaks of Covid-19 remain a risk in all regions, particularly those with lower vaccination coverage,” the report said. |
| 报告称：“在所有地区，特别是那些疫苗接种覆盖率较低的地区，仍然存在新冠再次暴发的风险。” |
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