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| Three weeks ago, Wall Street narrowly escaped a bear market, with stocks rebounding at the last minute from a brutal drop that had brought the S&P 500 down 20 percent from a record high in January. The next few weeks offered a glimmer of hope that the worst of the losses might be over. |
| 三周前，华尔街险些进入熊市，股市在最后一刻从暴跌中反弹，那次暴跌导致标准普尔500指数从1月份的创纪录高点下跌20%。接下来的几周给人们带来一丝曙光，认为最严重的损失可能已经结束。 |
| That glimmer is now gone. |
| 那一丝曙光现在消失了。 |
| On Monday, the S&P fell 3.9 percent, closing the day nearly 22 percent below its Jan. 3 peak and firmly in a bear market — a rare and grim marker of investors’ growing concerns for the economy. |
| 周一，标准普尔指数下跌3.9%，收盘时比1月3日的高点低近22%，明确地进入了熊市——这是一个罕见而严峻的标志，意味着投资者对经济日益担忧。 |
| A crucial report on Friday showed inflation in the United States was accelerating and creeping into every corner of the economy. Earlier last week, the World Bank issued a dire warning that global growth may be choked, especially as the war in Ukraine drags on. |
| 周五的一份重要报告显示，美国的通胀正在加速，并正在蔓延到经济的每一个角落。上周早些时候，世界银行发出严峻警告，称全球经济增长可能受阻，尤其是在乌克兰战争持续的情况下。 |
| Together, the data undercut optimism that the Federal Reserve, as it raises interest rates, would be able to keep price gains under control without damaging the American economy and sending ripples throughout the globe. |
| 人们曾认为，美联储在加息时将能够控制价格上涨而不会损害美国经济并在全球范围内引发涟漪，然而这些数据共同削弱了这样的乐观情绪。 |
| Monday’s trading ended with reports that the Fed is likely to discuss making its biggest interest-rate increase since 1994 when policymakers meet this week. |
| 周一的交易结束时，有报道称美联储可能会在本周政策制定者开会时讨论进行自1994年以来最大的一次加息。 |
| “The Fed needs to hike policy rates more aggressively if it has any hope of bringing inflation down,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. “If it’s going to have to tighten even more, then the chance of a recession is higher.” |
| “美联储降低通胀的最后希望是更激进地提高政策利率，”信安环球投资基金首席全球策略师西玛·沙阿表示。“如果不得不进一步收紧，那么经济衰退的可能性就更高。” |
| Large stock declines like this one — just the seventh bear market in the last 50 years — usually accompany a tectonic shift in the outlook for the economy and batter people’s retirement accounts. While one does not cause the other, recessions have historically followed bear markets. The last time stocks fell this much was at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and before that it was during the 2007-8 global financial crisis, which toppled some of the world’s largest banks. |
| 像这样的股票大幅下跌——这只是过去50年来的第七次熊市——通常伴随着经济前景的结构性转变，并会对人们的退休金账户造成打击。虽然二者没有因果关系，但从历史上看，熊市后都会出现衰退。上一次股市下跌如此之多是在新冠病毒大流行开始时，在那之前是在2007–2008年，全球金融危机席卷了全球最大的一些银行。 |
| The bear market in 2020, however, lasted only a relatively short six months. Stock analysts worry this decline will drag on longer. |
| 然而2020年的熊市相对较短，只持续了六个月。股票分析师担心这次的下跌会持续更长时间。 |
| Stocks are dropping now because companies and consumers face rising costs nearly everywhere they turn and investors fear that the Fed will clobber the economy as it tries to get inflation under control. The central bank has already raised interest rates twice this year, and Wall Street is bracing for interest rates — which were close to zero in March — to rise as high as 3 percent by September. The last time the federal funds rate was that high was during the Great Recession. |
| 这次的股票下跌是因为公司和消费者几乎无论在哪里都面临成本上升的问题，而且投资者担心美联储在试图控制通胀时会破坏经济。央行今年已经两次加息，而华尔街正准备迎接加息——利率在3月接近于零，预计在9月将升至3%。上一次联邦基金利率如此之高是在大萧条时期。 |
| The tightening from higher policy rates filters through the economy to make borrowing of all kinds — from mortgages to business debt — more expensive. That slows down the housing market, keeps consumers from spending and discourages corporate expansion. |
| 更高政策利率带来的紧缩效应渗透到整个经济中，从抵押贷款到企业债务的各种借贷变得更加昂贵。这拖慢了房地产市场，使消费者收紧开支，并阻碍了企业扩张。 |
| But interest rates are a blunt tool, and their impact on the economy is delayed, making it difficult for the Fed to know if it has gone too far before it is too late. |
| 但利率是一种粗暴的工具，它们对经济产生的影响是延迟的，这使得美联储很难及时了解到调整是否过度，等知道时已经太迟。 |
| “By the time you start to catch it and realize you did too much, you’re going to be deep in a trough,” said Dan Genter, the chief executive of Genter Capital Management, an investment advisory firm. “It’s going to take nine to 12 months before you see the total effects, and it takes that long to get out of it.” |
| “当你开始看出端倪，意识到做的太过时，你已经深陷进去了，”投资咨询公司根特资本管理的首席执行官丹·根特说。“你需要九到12个月才能看到总体效果，而且需要很长时间才能摆脱它。” |
| Borrowing costs are rising as $5-a-gallon gasoline and higher food costs, rents and home prices all begin to take a toll on households, Mr. Genter added. That in turn hurts consumer spending, which has long been a principal driver of the U.S. economy. |
| 根特补充说，随着每加仑5美元的汽油和更高的食品成本、租金和房价都开始对家庭造成影响，借贷成本正在上升。这反过来又伤及消费者支出，而消费者支出长期以来一直是美国经济的主要推动力。 |
| “My fear is that basically the Fed is really going to tighten too much and potentially throw us into a serious recession,” he said. |
| “我担心的是，基本上美联储真的会过度收紧，并可能使我们陷入严重的衰退，”他说。 |
| Monday’s selling — the worst daily decline in a month — hit several corners of the financial markets. Every major U.S. stock sector ended lower, as did benchmark indexes in Europe and Asia. Oil prices and government bonds similarly dipped. And Bitcoin fell below $24,000, an 18-month low. The cryptocurrency has lost around half its value this year. |
| 周一的抛售——一个月来最大的单日跌幅——冲击了金融市场的多个角落。美国所有主要股票板块均收低，欧洲和亚洲的基准指数也是如此。油价和政府债券同样下跌。比特币跌破2.4万美元，创下18个月新低。加密货币今年已经蒸发了大约一半市值。 |
| On Wednesday, the Fed is set to release its latest economic projections, which investors are likely to parse closely. They may be reassured if the central bank projects a path for interest rate increases that is more moderate than expected. |
| 周三，美联储将发布其最新的经济预测，投资者可能会仔细解析这些预测。如果央行预测的加息路径比预期的更为温和，他们可能会放心一些。 |
| But for investors to really stop worrying, they’ll have to see inflation slowing in the coming months, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. |
| 但纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温表示，要让投资者真正放下心来，必须要让他们看到未来几个月通胀放缓。 |
| Another unanswered question for investors is the impact of the Fed’s other policy change. After buying government bonds to help keep cash pumping through the financial system, an emergency measure that began early in the pandemic, the central bank is reversing course. |
| 对于投资者来说，另一个悬而未决的问题是美联储其他政策变化带来的影响。在大流行初期，作为紧急措施，央行开始购买政府债券以帮助保持现金在金融系统中流动，现在，央行正在采取逆向措施。 |
| “This is a major wild card for investors,” Ms. Goodwin said. |
| “这对投资者来说是一张重要的王牌，”古德温说。 |
| A second stage to the market’s downturn is likely still to come, Ms. Shah said. Stocks could fall further as evidence of the economic trouble appears in corporate earnings, consumer spending and other data that show that the worst expectations for the economy are being realized. The new wave of selling may not happen until closer to the end of this year. |
| 沙阿说，市场低迷的第二阶段可能还会到来。随着企业收益、消费者支出和其他数据体现出经济困难，表明对经济的最坏预期正在成为现实，股市可能会进一步下跌。新一轮的抛售潮可能要到今年年底才会发生。 |
| All the talk of recessions and bear markets could also — at the margins at least — add to the economic pressure, in part because people see their investment, retirement or college savings accounts shrink and start to pull back on spending. |
| 所有关于衰退和熊市的讨论也可能——至少在边际上——增加经济压力，部分原因是人们看到他们的投资、退休金或大学储蓄账户缩水并开始缩减支出。 |
| “The behavioral effect is that people will start to slow down on spending, become much more cautious, start to save more,” said Beth Ann Bovino, the chief U.S. economist at S&P Global. “That’s not a good outcome for the economy. It slows growth.” |
| “对行为的影响是，人们将开始放缓支出，变得更加谨慎，开始更多储蓄，”标准普尔全球首席美国经济学家贝丝·安·博维诺表示。“这对经济来说不是一个好结果。它减缓了增长。” |
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