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| Aleksandr Y. Lebedev looks like a prime target for sanctions meant to prompt Russia’s elites to turn against the Kremlin. He is a onetime billionaire and a former K.G.B. agent with deep connections both in Russia’s ruling class and in the West; his son owns British newspapers and is a member of the House of Lords. | 亚历山大·列别杰夫似乎是西方为促使俄罗斯精英转向与克里姆林宫敌对而制裁的主要目标。他曾是个亿万富翁，也是前克格勃特工，在俄罗斯统治阶层和西方都有深厚的人脉；他儿子拥有几家英国报纸，还是英国上议院议员。 |
| But Mr. Lebedev has a message for anyone expecting him to now try to bring down President Vladimir V. Putin: “It’s not going to work.” | 但对于那些期望他现在就尝试推翻普京总统的人，列别杰夫给出的信息是：“那行不通。” |
| In that matter, he insists, he is powerless. “What, am I supposed to now go to the Kremlin with a banner?” Mr. Lebedev said by video call from Moscow. “It’s more likely to be the opposite.” | 他坚称，在这件事上他无能为力。“什么，难道要我现在拿着横幅去克里姆林宫吗？”列别杰夫在莫斯科与记者通视频电话时说。“更可能的是完全相反的做法。” |
| Leading Russian business owners and intellectuals fled their country after the invasion on Feb. 24, settling in places like Dubai, Istanbul and Berlin. But many others who were well-connected at home and had close ties to the West stayed behind, struggling to redefine their lives. | 自从俄罗斯今年2月24日入侵乌克兰后，俄罗斯主要的企业主和知识分子已逃离了他们的国家，在迪拜、伊斯坦布尔和柏林等地住了下来。但也有许多在国内有良好人脉、与西方有密切联系的人没有离开，他们正在努力重新考虑自己的生活。 |
| As they did, their paths diverged — illuminating the watershed of choices that the war represents for wealthy and influential Russians, and the long odds that any broad coalition of Russians will emerge to challenge Mr. Putin. A handful are speaking out against the war while remaining in the country, despite great personal risk. Many, like Mr. Lebedev, are keeping their head down. And some have chosen to throw in their lot with the Kremlin. | 他们在这样做的过程中，选择了不同的做法，表明这场战争对富裕和有影响力的俄罗斯人来说，是选择的分水岭，也意味着让俄罗斯人组成挑战普京的广泛联盟的可能性很低。为数不多的人不顾巨大的个人风险，留在这个国家公开反对战争。而更多的人则像列别杰夫这样，低调行事。还有些人选择支持克里姆林宫。 |
| “What we have is what we have,” said Dmitri Trenin, who until April ran the country’s marquee American-funded think tank, the Carnegie Moscow Center, relied on by the West for independent assessments of Russian politics and policies. Now he has switched roles completely, defining the West as “the enemy” and describing “strategic success in Ukraine” as Russia’s “most important task.” | “我们有什么就是什么，”德米特里·特列宁说，他在今年4月之前，一直是由美国资助的俄罗斯著名智库卡内基莫斯科中心的主管，西方国家依靠该中心对俄罗斯的政治和政策进行独立分析。现在，他已经彻底改变了角色，把西方定义为“敌人”，把“在乌克兰取得战略性成功”描述为俄罗斯“最重要的任务”。 |
| “We have all crossed the line from a confrontation in which dialogue was possible to a war in which in principle there can be no dialogue for now,” he said in an interview. | “我们都已经越过了那条线，从处于一场有可能进行对话的对抗，进入了一场目前原则上不可能进行对话的战争，”他在接受采访时说。 |
| The mood of the so-called Russian elite — a kaleidoscope of senior officials, business executives, journalists and intellectuals — has been closely watched for any domestic backlash to Mr. Putin’s decision to go to war. If their dismay at the country’s sudden economic and cultural isolation were to cross a threshold, some Western officials believe, Mr. Putin might be forced to change course. | 外界一直在密切关注包括高级官员、企业高管、记者和知识分子在内的所谓俄罗斯精英阶层的情绪，寻找俄罗斯国内对普京发动战争决定集体反对的迹象。一些西方官员认为，如果他们对俄罗斯在经济和文化上突然被孤立的失望超过某个阈值的话，普京也许会被迫改变做法。 |
| Yet what is happening in reality, interviews show, is that the mood spans a spectrum from desperation to exhilaration, but with one common denominator: the sense that the country’s future is out of their hands. | 然而，采访显示，现实中正在发生的事情是，他们的情绪各异，从绝望到兴奋都有，但一个共同之处是：国家的未来不在他们的掌控之中。 |
| “They are drinking,” said Yevgenia M. Albats, a journalist still in Moscow, attempting to characterize those elites who were dismayed by the decision to go to war. “They are drinking very heavily.” | “他们在酗酒，”仍在莫斯科的记者叶夫根尼娅·阿尔巴茨在试图描述那些对入侵决定感到沮丧的精英们时说。“他们喝得非常多。” |
| Almost no Russian billionaires have spoken out forcefully against the war, even though sanctions have frozen billions of dollars in their Western assets. One senior adviser to Mr. Putin has quit, reportedly over the war, but has not commented on his departure; only one Russian diplomat, a midlevel official in Geneva, has publicly resigned in protest. | 几乎没有俄罗斯亿万富翁公开出来对战争表示强烈反对，尽管制裁已冻结了他们在西方的数十亿美元的资产。普京的一名高级顾问据说已因战争的原因辞职，但他还没有对辞职发表过评论；只有一名俄罗斯外交官（该国驻日内瓦的一名中级官员）以公开辞职的方式表示了抗议。 |
| Instead, many are choosing to cut ties with Europe and the United States and to refrain from criticizing the Kremlin. That stance aligns with the constant assertions by Mr. Putin that it is better to cast your lot with Russia than the West. | 相反，许多人正在选择切断与欧洲和美国的关系，避免批评克里姆林宫。这种立场与普京经常挂在嘴边的说法相符，即与俄罗斯共命运比与西方共命运好。 |
| “It’s safer at home,” Mr. Putin said at a St. Petersburg economic conference last week, demanding that Russia’s wealthy turn away from Western vacation houses and boarding schools. “Real, solid success and a feeling of dignity and self-respect only occurs when you tie your future and your children’s future to your Motherland.” | “国内更安全，”普京上周在圣彼得堡的一个经济会议上说，他要求俄罗斯的富人抛弃西方的度假别墅和寄宿学校。“只有当你把自己和子女的未来与祖国联系在一起时，才能获得真正的、牢固的成功，以及尊严和自尊。” |
| As a result, even the tightly controlled politics of prewar Russia now looks vibrant in retrospect. | 结果是，就连俄乌战争爆发前那种严格控制的俄罗斯政治，现在看来也显得更有生机。 |
| Ms. Albats, a liberal radio host and magazine editor, continues to broadcast from her apartment to YouTube; the Echo of Moscow radio station, which carried her show for nearly two decades, shut down after the war began. She has called Mr. Putin a war criminal, and already faces four misdemeanor charges under Russia’s new censorship law. | 阿尔巴茨是一个自由派电台的主持人和杂志编辑，她继续在自己的公寓做YouTube节目；曾播放她的节目近20年的“莫斯科回声”电台，已在战争爆发后停播。她把普京称为战争罪犯，根据俄罗斯新的审查法律，她已经面临四项轻罪指控。 |
| As one of the few prominent liberals who continue to loudly criticize the war while inside the country, and with just about all her friends having left, Ms. Albats says she faces a “monstrous” loneliness. | 阿尔巴茨是少数几个在国内继续大声批评战争的著名自由主义者之一，她所有的朋友几乎都离开了，她说她面临着一种“可怕的”孤独感。 |
| “This youthful energy of resistance — all the ones who could have resisted have left,” Ms. Albats, 63, said. “I must resist — otherwise I will stop respecting myself. But I understand that life is over.” | “这种朝气蓬勃的抵抗力量——所有本可以抵抗的人都离开了，”63岁的阿尔巴茨说。“我必须抵制——否则我就会看不起自己。但我明白，过去的生活已经结束。” |
| Yet to others, life goes on. Mr. Lebedev, the business magnate, owns a minority stake in Novaya Gazeta, the independent newspaper whose editor Dmitri A. Muratov auctioned off his 2021 Nobel Peace Prize medal for $103.5 million this week to support Ukrainian child refugees. | 然而对其他人来说，生活还在继续。商业巨头列别杰夫拥有独立报纸《新报》的少数股份，该报的总编德米特里·穆拉托夫本周以1.035亿美元拍卖了他的2021年诺贝尔和平奖奖章，用于支持乌克兰儿童难民。 |
| Mr. Lebedev, 62, said Russia was approaching the model of “Iran and North Korea” and would be able to sustain it for years; Mr. Putin would stay in power as long as his health allowed, he predicted in a phone interview, rejecting rumors of the president being sick as “nonsense.” It was “an absolute illusion,” he insisted, that Russia’s wealthy could have any influence on Mr. Putin’s insular inner circle. | 62岁的列别杰夫说，俄罗斯正在接近“伊朗和朝鲜”的模式，并且将能够维持多年；他在电话采访中预测，只要普京的健康状况允许，他就会继续掌权，并说总统生病的谣言是“无稽之谈”。他坚称，认为俄罗斯的富人可以对普京孤立的核心圈子产生任何影响“绝对是一种幻想”。 |
| He railed against sanctions, saying they were only prompting Russia’s wealthy to rally around Mr. Putin by forcing them to cut ties with the West and making them feel like victims. Canada placed Mr. Lebedev on a sanctions list of oligarchs who “directly enabled Vladimir Putin’s senseless war in Ukraine.” He rejects that characterization, noting that he has been one of the main financial backers of Russia’s best-known independent newspaper. | 他抨击制裁，称制裁只会促使俄罗斯富人团结在普京身边，迫使他们切断与西方的联系，让他们觉得自己是受害者。加拿大将列别杰夫列入了“直接促成了弗拉基米尔·普京在乌克兰的无意义战争”的寡头制裁名单。他反对这种定性，并指出他一直是俄罗斯最著名的独立报纸的主要财务支持者之一。 |
| Novaya suspended publication in March, with Mr. Muratov announcing that it was doing so to ensure its journalists’ safety. Mr. Lebedev predicted that Novaya would not reopen so long as the war in Ukraine continued — which military analysts have said could be years. | 《新报》在3月暂停出版，穆拉托夫宣布这样做是为了确保记者的安全。列别杰夫预测，只要乌克兰的战争还在继续，《新报》就不会重新开放，而军事分析家说战争可能会持续数年。 |
| “I live here, I have to feed my family, so I will keep doing things in the fields in which I understand something,” he said. “But it won’t be journalism.” | “我住在这里，我要养家糊口，所以我会继续在我还算懂行的领域做一些事情，”他说。“但不会是新闻业。” |
| Life in Moscow has changed little so far, Mr. Lebedev said, though it was proving difficult to import his fine wine collection from Italy. He pointed out that other than Oleg Tinkov, the founder of a Russian bank who said he was forced to sell his stake this spring, no major Russian business magnate has spoken forcefully against the war, despite the many billions they may possess in Western assets. | 列别杰夫说，到目前为止，莫斯科的生活几乎没有什么变化，尽管从意大利进口他的优质葡萄酒收藏变得非常困难。他指出，除了一家俄罗斯银行的创始人奥列格·廷科夫外，没有俄罗斯主要商业巨头对战争发表强烈反对，尽管他们可能拥有数十亿美元的西方资产。廷科夫说他今年春天被迫出售自己的股份。 |
| “Even if you say that this was a mistake,” Mr. Lebedev said of the invasion, “we still have what we have.” | “即使你说这是一个错误，”列别杰夫谈到入侵时说，“我们还是拥有我们所拥有的东西。” |
| That is also the logic that helped prompt Mr. Trenin, the former Carnegie Moscow Center director, to change course. For decades, he straddled the mainstream foreign-policy discourse of both Moscow and Washington, and employed critics of Mr. Putin at his think tank. Before the war, Mr. Trenin said that Mr. Putin was unlikely to invade Ukraine because doing so would entail “great human and financial losses” and “a tremendous risk for Russia itself.” | 这也是促使前卡内基莫斯科中心主任特列宁改变路线的逻辑。几十年来，莫斯科和华盛顿的主流外交政策讨论都有他的身影，而且他还在智囊团聘用普京的批评者。战前，特列宁表示，普京不太可能入侵乌克兰，因为这样做会造成“巨大的人力和经济损失”，并且“对俄罗斯本身构成巨大风险”。 |
| But after the war started on Feb. 24, when some of his colleagues fled, Mr. Trenin decided to stay put. He said that whether the invasion was the right decision in hindsight no longer mattered, and that he now needed to support his country in what he cast as a war between Russia and the West. | 但在2月24日战争开始后，特列宁的一些同事逃离了，而他决定留下来。他说，事后去看入侵是否是正确的决定已不再重要，在这场他称之为俄罗斯与西方之间的战争中，他现在需要支持他的国家。 |
| The Russians who left and are speaking out against the invasion, he said in a phone interview, had made the choice to “stand against their country, against their people, at a time of war.” | 他在电话采访中说，离开并公开反对入侵的俄罗斯人做出了一个选择，即“在战争时期反对他们的国家，反对他们的人民”。 |
| “This is a time of making a fundamental choice,” Mr. Trenin, who served for two decades in the Soviet and Russian militaries, said. “Either you stay with your people and in your country, or you leave.” | “这是一个做出根本性选择的时刻，”曾在苏联和俄罗斯军队服役20年的特列宁说。“要么你和你的人民在一起，留在你的国家，要么离开。” |
| The Russian government in April shut down the Carnegie Moscow Center, which was funded by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. Mr. Trenin, 66, said that he now plans to do research and teach in Moscow, and that his longtime mission of promoting understanding between Moscow and Washington is no longer relevant. | 俄罗斯政府于4月关闭了由华盛顿卡内基国际和平基金会资助的卡内基莫斯科中心。现年66岁的特列宁说，他现在计划在莫斯科进行研究和教学，而他长期以来促进莫斯科和华盛顿之间理解的使命已不再重要。 |
| Had Washington acceded to Mr. Putin’s demands to pledge that Ukraine would never join NATO, Mr. Trenin argues, the war could have been averted. Now, conflict between Russia and the West “will probably continue for the rest of my life.” | 特列宁认为，如果华盛顿答应普京的要求，保证乌克兰永远不会加入北约，这场战争本可以避免。现在，俄罗斯和西方之间的冲突“可能会在我的余生中一直持续”。 |
| “My work was aimed at creating mutual understanding between America and Russia,” he says. “This has not happened.” | “我的工作旨在建立美国和俄罗斯之间的相互理解，”他说。“这并没有发生。” |
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