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| WASHINGTON — President Biden is weighing whether to roll back some of the tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed on Chinese goods, in hopes of mitigating the most rapid price gains in 40 years, according to senior administration officials. | 华盛顿——据政府高级官员称，拜登总统正在权衡是否要取消前总统特朗普对中国商品征收的部分关税，希望缓解40年来最快速的价格上涨。 |
| Business groups and some outside economists have been pressuring the administration to relax at least a portion of the taxes on imports, saying it would be a significant step that the president could take to immediately cut costs for consumers. | 商业团体和一些外部经济学家一直在向政府施压，要求至少放松部分进口关税，称总统若采取这个重大举措，可以立即为消费者削减成本。 |
| Yet any action by the administration to lift the tariffs is unlikely to put a large dent in an inflation rate that hit 8.6 percent in May — while the political ramifications could be severe. An influential study this year predicted that a move to lift tariffs could save households $797 a year, but administration officials say the actual effect would most likely be far smaller, in part because there is no chance Mr. Biden will roll back all of the federal government’s tariffs and other protectionist trade measures. | 然而，政府任何取消关税的行动都不太可能大幅降低5月录得的8.6%的通货膨胀率，而政治后果可能会很严重。今年的一项有影响力的研究预测，取消关税的举措每年可为美国家庭节省797美元，但政府官员表示，实际效果很可能要小得多，部分原因是拜登不可能取消联邦政府的所有关税和其他贸易保护主义措施。 |
| The tariff discussion comes at a precarious time for the economy. Persistent inflation has shattered consumer confidence, driven stock markets into bear territory — down 20 percent from their January high — and inflamed fears of a recession as the Federal Reserve moves quickly to raise interest rates. | 关税谈判发生在经济不稳定的时期。持续的通货膨胀打击了消费者的信心，将股市推向熊市——从1月的高点下跌了20%——并且随着美联储迅速提高利率，人们对经济衰退的担忧也随之加剧。 |
| Some administration economists privately estimate the tariff reductions that Mr. Biden is considering would reduce the overall inflation rate by as little as a quarter of a percentage point. Still, in a sign of how big a political problem inflation has become, officials are weighing at least a partial relaxation anyway, in part because the president has few other options. | 政府的一些经济学家私下估计，拜登正在考虑的关税削减只会将总体通胀率降低0.25个百分点。不过，有迹象表明，通胀已成为一个严重的政治问题，官员们正在考虑至少部分放松关税，部分因为总统几乎没有其他选择。 |
| The China tariffs are raising the price of goods for American consumers by essentially adding a tax on top of what they already pay for imported goods. In theory, removing the tariffs could reduce inflation if companies cut — or stopped raising — prices on those products. | 对中国的关税提高了美国消费者的商品价格，实际上是在消费者已经为进口商品支付的费用基础上再加一项税收。理论上，如果企业降低或停止提高这些产品的价格，取消关税可能会降低通胀。 |
| Mr. Biden has said taming inflation rests mainly with the Federal Reserve, which is trying to cool demand by making money more expensive to borrow and spend. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, possibly making its biggest increase since 1994, as it tries to get persistent inflation under control. The prospect of big rate increases has spooked Wall Street, which entered bear market territory on Monday before steadying on Tuesday. | 拜登曾表示，控制通胀主要取决于美联储，后者正试图通过提高借贷和支出成本来抑制需求。美联储预计将在周三加息，这可能是1994年以来最大的一次加息，因为它试图控制住持续的通胀。大幅加息的前景吓坏了华尔街，股市周一进入熊市区域，周二企稳。 |
| Any move to tweak the tariffs could carry significant trade-offs. It could encourage companies to keep their supply chains in China, undercutting another White House priority to bring jobs back to America. And it could expose Mr. Biden — and his Democratic allies in Congress — to attacks that he is letting Beijing off the hook when America’s economic relationship with China has become openly hostile, deepening a wedge issue for the midterm elections and the next presidential race. | 任何调整关税的举措都可能带来重大的权衡考量。它可能会鼓励企业将供应链留在中国，从而削弱白宫的另一个优先事项，即将就业机会带回美国。这可能会使拜登以及他在国会的民主党盟友受到攻击，说他在中美经济关系公开敌对的情况下放过北京，从而加剧中期选举和下届总统竞选中的一个争议性问题。 |
| China has yet to live up to the commitments it made as part of the U.S.-China trade deal that Mr. Trump negotiated, including failing to purchase significant amounts of natural gas, Boeing airplanes and other American products. Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on the bulk of products the United States imports from China as part of a pressure campaign aimed at forcing China to change its economic practices. More than two years later, the United States retains a 25 percent tariff on about $160 billion of Chinese products, while another $105 billion, mostly consumer goods, are taxed at 7.5 percent. | 中国尚未兑现与特朗普谈判达成的美中贸易协议里做出的承诺，包括购买大量天然气、波音飞机和其他美国产品。特朗普对美国从中国进口的大部分产品征收关税，这是要求中国改变经济做法的施压行动的一部分。两年多后，美国对价值约1600亿美元的中国产品保留了25%的关税，对另外1050亿美元的产品（主要是消费品）征收7.5%的关税。 |
| While Mr. Biden has criticized the way in which Mr. Trump wielded tariffs, he has also acknowledged that China’s economic practices pose a threat to America. | 虽然拜登批评了特朗普施加关税的方式，但他也承认，中国的经济做法对美国构成了威胁。 |
| Business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and economists like Lawrence H. Summers, a Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, have urged the White House to repeal as many tariffs as possible, saying it would help consumers deal with rising prices. | 美国商会等商业团体和克林顿政府的财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯等经济学家都敦促白宫尽量多废除关税，称这将帮助消费者应对不断上涨的价格。 |
| Mr. Summers and others have approvingly cited the March study on the issue from economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who argued that a “feasible package” of tariff removal — which includes repealing a range of levies and trade programs, not just those applied to China — could cause a one-time reduction in the Consumer Price Index of 1.3 percentage points, amounting to a gain of $797 per American household. | 萨默斯等人认可彼得森国际经济研究所的经济学家3月份对这个问题的研究，该研究认为，取消关税的“综合可行方案”（包括废除一系列关税和贸易项目，而不仅仅是适用于中国的那些）可能会使消费者价格指数一次性下降1.3个百分点，相当于每个美国家庭获得797美元。 |
| In an interview, Mr. Summers said reducing tariffs was “probably the most potent microeconomic or structural action the administration can take to reduce prices and inflationary pressure relatively rapidly.” | 在接受采访时，萨默斯表示，降低关税“可能是政府所能采取的最有力的微观经济或结构性行动，以便相对迅速地降低价格和通胀压力”。 |
| But even those inside the administration who support easing the tariffs are skeptical that the move would produce anywhere close to the amount of relief that Mr. Summers and others have predicted. | 但即便是政府内部那些支持放宽关税的人，也在怀疑此举能否带来萨默斯等人预测的缓解效果。 |
| “I think some reductions may be warranted and could help to bring down prices of things that people buy that are burdensome,” Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury secretary and an advocate of some tariff rollbacks, told a House committee last week. “I want to make clear, I honestly don’t think tariff policy is a panacea with respect to inflation.” | “我认为，一些削减可能是有必要的，可能有助于降低人们购买的那些负担沉重的商品的价格，”主张削减部分关税的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦上周对众议院的一个委员会说。“我想澄清的是，老实说，我不认为关税政策是应对通胀的灵丹妙药。” |
| Ms. Yellen met on Tuesday with the board of directors of the National Retail Federation, which has long argued against the tariffs and recently made the case that eliminating them would ease inflation. | 耶伦于周二会见了全国零售联合会的董事会成员，该组织长期以来一直反对关税，最近还提出了取消关税将缓解通胀的理由。 |
| One key question is whether companies that are given tariff relief would actually pass those savings on in the form of lower prices or choose to absorb them as profits. Consumers have so far continued to pay more for everyday items, a fact that corporations have cited in earnings calls with investors as a reason they can charge more. | 一个关键问题是，获得关税减免的企业是否真会以降低价格的形式将这些节省下来的关税转让出去，还是将其作为利润占为己有。到目前为止，消费者继续在为日常用品支付着更高的价格，一些公司在与投资者的财报电话会议上将这一事实作为可以收取更高价格的理由。 |
| David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation, said the administration had been trying to understand how quickly tariff cuts would translate into pricing changes, and seeking assurances from retailers that any savings would be passed along to American consumers. | 全国零售联合会负责政府关系的高级副总裁戴维·弗伦奇表示，政府一直在努力了解关税削减转化为价格变化的速度有多快，并寻求零售商保证，任何节省下来的费用都会转让给美国消费者。 |
| “I think in the administration’s mind, there’s going to be a price rollback and money is going to come off the price tag,” he said. “I’m not sure you’re going to see a dramatic change like that.” | “我觉得政府可能认为，价格将会回落，钱将从价签上省下来，”他说道， “但我认为不会出现这样戏剧性的变化。” |
| Instead of price decreases, for example, stores may choose to hold off on increasing prices even more. Retailers “will do as much as they can to demonstrate dramatic changes in pricing where possible,” but they still face pent-up pressures in the supply chain in terms of cost, he said. | 例如，与其降价，商店更可能会选择暂缓涨价。他说，零售商“尽其所能让人们看到价格的巨大变化”，但在成本方面，他们仍然面临着积累已久的供应链压力。 |
| Rising prices have socked Americans across the economy, draining families’ purchasing power and contributing to a steady decline in Mr. Biden’s approval ratings. The Consumer Price Index was up 8.6 percent in May from a year earlier, its fastest growth rate in 40 years. Mr. Biden says he has made fighting inflation his top economic priority. | 不断上涨的物价影响到了不同经济层面的所有人，耗尽了家庭的购买力，并导致拜登的支持率不断下降。5月消费者物价指数同比上涨8.6%，为40年来最快增幅。拜登说，他已将遏制通胀作为经济的首要任务。 |
| Last week, Mr. Biden announced a two-year pause on tariffs on imported solar panels, which could reduce costs for domestic consumers but which effectively pre-empted a Commerce Department investigation into illegal trade practices by Chinese manufacturers. | 上周，拜登宣布两年内暂停对进口太阳能电池板征收关税，这一举措能够为国内消费者降低成本，但实际上等于是阻碍了商务部对中国制造商违法贸易行为的调查。 |
| Domestic trade groups, labor leaders and populist Democrats like Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio, who is locked in a competitive Senate race, have pushed Mr. Biden to keep the tariffs. Mr. Ryan held a news conference on Tuesday urging Mr. Biden not to yield any economic ground to Beijing. | 国内贸易团体、劳工领袖和民粹主义民主党人已推动拜登保留关税，其中包括俄亥俄州众议员蒂姆·瑞安，这位民粹主义民主党人正投身于激烈的参议院竞选中。瑞安周二举行了新闻发布会，敦促拜登不要向中国政府出让任何经济利益。 |
| Economists disagree on how much inflation relief the administration could get by removing the tariffs. | 政府通过取消关税能够在多大程度上缓解通胀，经济学家们对此意见不一。 |
| In part that’s because the inflation calculations cited by Mr. Summers and others include a far broader relaxation of policies than what Mr. Biden is actually considering, including popular “Buy America” programs that require the federal government and certain contractors to buy American-made goods, even if they are more expensive. | 部分原因是萨默斯和其他人在计算通胀时考虑的政策比拜登实际考虑的政策更加宽松，后者包括著名的“购买美国货”计划，它要求联邦政府和某些承包商购买美国制造的产品，即使这些产品更贵。 |
| The Peterson Institute study is “something between fiction or an interesting academic exercise” that does not capture the real pain Americans are feeling, the United States trade representative, Katherine Tai, said in an interview last month. | 美国贸易代表戴琪上个月接受采访时说，彼得森研究所的研究是“介于幻想层面或有趣的学术探讨之间”，并没有捕捉到美国人的真正痛苦。 |
| Kim Glas, the president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, which has lobbied the administration to keep the tariffs, said that in her industry the tariffs amounted to “pennies on the dollar” for Chinese goods that were already priced far below alternatives from other countries. | 曾游说政府维持关税的全国纺织组织委员会主席金·格拉斯表示，在她的行业中，中国商品的关税根本是“九牛一毛”，这些商品的标价已经远远低于其他国家的同类商品。 |
| Tariff prices are applied to the price of the good coming in at the border, not to the final retail price charged at a store. For a pair of jeans from China, that import price was $4.28 in the first two months of 2022, meaning the 7.5 percent tariff added just 32 cents to the consumer’s cost, Ms. Glas said. It was the markup at retail — which can bring jeans to $30, $40 or $100 — that represents the bulk of sticker shock, she added. | 关税价格是对入境商品制定的价格，而不是商店收取的最终零售价格。格拉斯说，一条来自中国的牛仔裤在2022年前两个月的进口价格为4.28美元，7.5%的关税意味着使消费者的成本仅增加了32美分。她还表示，价格冲击的大部分来自零售价的加价，使牛仔裤可以涨到30美元、40美元或100美元。 |
| The issue has divided Mr. Biden’s closest advisers. Ms. Tai; Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser; Tom Vilsack, the secretary of agriculture; and others have argued that dropping the levies is unwarranted when Beijing has offered no concessions and has failed to meet commitments in the trade deal. | 这个问题在拜登最亲近的顾问中产生了分歧。戴琪、国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文、农业部长汤姆·维尔萨克和其他人认为，当北京没有做出让步并且未能履行贸易协议中的承诺时，没有必要取消关税。 |
| But Ms. Yellen, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and other officials have argued in favor of reducing levies on certain household goods that they say have little strategic importance, people familiar with the discussions said. | 但知情人士说，耶伦、商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多和其他官员都主张，对于某些他们认为没有战略意义的家庭用品，应减少征税。 |
| At a House Ways and Means Committee hearing last week, Ms. Yellen said that the Biden administration was reviewing the tariffs and that rollbacks or exclusions could be unveiled in the coming weeks. | 在上周的众议院筹款委员会的听证会上，耶伦表示，拜登政府正在评估关税，未来几周可能会公布关税取消或豁免的措施。 |
| A White House spokesman declined to say how much of an inflation reduction administration economists believe might be possible from a tariff rollback, citing the ongoing nature of the discussions. Another senior administration official said the White House had been examining several models of how lifting tariffs affect inflation, which had produced a range of estimates, depending on factors like whether the tariffs were eliminated through an exclusion process or in one fell swoop, and whether China responded by lifting its own tariffs. | 白宫发言人以讨论仍在进行中为由，拒绝透露政府内部的经济学家对于撤销关税能在多大程度上降低通胀的评估。另一位政府高级官员表示，白宫一直在研究取消关税如何影响通胀的模型，通过这些模型已经得出了一系列评估，这些评估取决于取消关税的方式——通过豁免程序还是一并取消，以及中国是否会以提高自己的关税作为回应。 |
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