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| WASHINGTON — A sweeping new law aimed at cracking down on Chinese forced labor could have significant — and unanticipated — ramifications for American companies and consumers. |
| 华盛顿——一项旨在打击中国强迫劳动的全面新法律可能会对美国公司和消费者产生意外的重大影响。 |
| The law, which went into effect on Tuesday, bars products from entering the United States if they have any links to Xinjiang, the far-western region where the Chinese authorities have carried out an extensive crackdown on Uyghur Muslims and other ethnic minorities. |
| 这项于周二生效的法律禁止与新疆存在任何联系的产品进入美国。新疆是中国偏远的西部地区，中国当局在那里对维吾尔穆斯林和其他少数民族进行大规模镇压。 |
| That could affect a wide range of products, including those using any raw materials from Xinjiang or with a connection to the type of Chinese labor and poverty alleviation programs the U.S. government has deemed coercive — even if the finished product used just a tiny amount of material from Xinjiang somewhere along its journey. |
| 这可能会影响到很多产品，包括那些使用来自新疆的原材料，或与美国政府认为具有强迫性的中国劳动力和扶贫项目有关的产品——即使最终产品在生产过程中只使用了少量来自新疆的原材料。 |
| The law, called the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, presumes that all of these goods are made with forced labor, and stops them at the U.S. border, until importers can produce evidence that their supply chains do not touch on Xinjiang, or involve slavery or coercive practices. |
| 这项名为《维吾尔强迫劳动预防法》的法律假定所有这些商品都是通过强迫劳动制造，并在美国边境进行拦截，直到进口商能够拿出证据，证明其供应链与新疆无关，或并不涉及奴役及胁迫行为。 |
| Evan Smith, the chief executive at the supply chain technology company Altana AI, said his company calculated that roughly a million companies globally would be subject to enforcement action under the full letter of the law, out of about 10 million businesses worldwide that are buying, selling or manufacturing physical things. |
| 供应链技术公司Altana AI的首席执行官埃文·史密斯表示，根据他的公司计算，全球约1000万家购买、销售或制造实体物品的企业中，大约有100万家将面临执法行动的影响。 |
| “This is not like a ‘picking needles out of a haystack’ problem,” he said. “This is touching a meaningful percentage of all of the world’s everyday goods.” |
| “这不是‘大海捞针’的问题，”他说。“这涉及全球所有日常商品中相当大的一部分。” |
| The Biden administration has said it intends to fully enforce the law, which could lead the U.S. authorities to detain or turn away a significant number of imported products. Such a scenario is likely to cause headaches for companies and sow further supply chain disruptions. It could also fuel inflation, which is already running at a four-decade high, if companies are forced to seek out more expensive alternatives or consumers start to compete for scarce products. |
| 拜登政府已表示，它打算全面执行这项法律，这可能导致美国当局扣留或退回大量进口产品。这种情况可能会给企业带来麻烦，并导致供应链进一步中断。如果企业被迫寻找更昂贵的替代品，或消费者开始争夺稀缺产品，这还可能加剧已达到40年高点的通胀。 |
| Failure to fully enforce the law is likely to prompt an outcry from Congress, which is in charge of oversight. |
| 如果不能全面执行这项法律，可能会引发国会的强烈抗议，后者负责监督工作。 |
| “The public is not prepared for what’s going to happen,” said Alan Bersin, a former commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection who is now the executive chairman at Altana AI. “The impact of this on the global economy, and on the U.S. economy, is measured in the many billions of dollars, not in the millions of dollars.” |
| “公众对将要发生的事情没有准备，”前美国海关和边境保护局局长、现任Altana AI执行主席的艾伦·伯辛说。“这对全球经济和美国经济的影响是以数以十亿美元计，而不是以百万美元为单位。” |
| Ties between Xinjiang and a few industries, like apparel and solar, are already well recognized. The apparel industry has scrambled to find new suppliers, and solar firms have had to pause many U.S. projects while they investigated their supply chains. But trade experts say the connections between the region and global supply chains are far more expansive than just those industries. |
| 新疆与服装和太阳能等行业的关系已广为人知。服装行业急于寻找新的供应商，太阳能公司在调查供应链期间不得不暂停许多美国项目。但贸易专家表示，该地区与全球供应链之间的联系远不止于此。 |
| According to Kharon, a data and analytics firm, Xinjiang produces more than 40 percent of the world’s polysilicon, a quarter of the world’s tomato paste and a fifth of global cotton. It’s also responsible for 15 percent of the world’s hops and about a tenth of global walnuts, peppers and rayon. It has 9 percent of the world’s reserves of beryllium, and is home to China’s largest wind turbine manufacturer, which is responsible for 13 percent of global output. |
| 根据数据分析公司卡隆的数据，新疆生产的多晶硅占全球总产量的40%以上，番茄酱占全球总产量的四分之一，棉花占全球总产量的五分之一，还有世界上15%的啤酒花和约十分之一的核桃、辣椒和人造纤维。它拥有世界上9%的铍储量，而且是中国最大的风力涡轮机制造商的所在地，其产量占全球的13%。 |
| Direct exports to the United States from the Xinjiang region — where the Chinese authorities have detained more than a million ethnic minorities and sent many more into government-organized labor transfer programs — have fallen off drastically in the past few years. But a wide range of raw materials and components currently find their way into factories in China or in other countries, and then to the United States, trade experts say. |
| 中国当局在新疆拘禁了100多万少数民族人士，并将更多的少数民族人士送往政府组织的劳动力转移项目，过去几年，新疆地区对美国的直接出口急剧下降。但贸易专家说，目前有大量原材料和零部件进入中国或其他国家的工厂，然后进入美国。 |
| Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the secretary of homeland security, said in a statement on Friday that his department was “committed to ending the abhorrent practice of forced labor around the globe.” |
| 国土安全部部长亚历杭德罗·马约尔卡斯周五在一份声明中表示，国土安全部“致力于结束全球范围内令人憎恶的强迫劳动行为”。 |
| “We must combat these inhumane and exploitative practices while ensuring that legitimate goods can enter at our ports and reach American businesses and consumers as quickly as possible,” he said. |
| “我们必须打击这些不人道和剥削性的做法，同时确保合法商品能够进入我们的港口，尽快到达美国企业和消费者手中，”他说道。 |
| The Chinese government disputes the presence of forced labor in Xinjiang, saying that all employment is voluntary. And it has tried to blunt the impact of foreign pressure to stop abuses in Xinjiang by passing its own anti-sanctions law, which prohibits any company or individual from helping to enforce foreign measures that are seen as discriminating against China. |
| 中国政府对新疆存在强迫劳动提出异议，称所有就业均为自愿。中国还试图通过自己的反制裁法来削弱外国施压的影响，该法禁止任何公司或个人帮助执行被视为歧视中国的国外措施。 |
| Though the implications of the U.S. law remain to be seen, it could end up transforming global supply chains. Some companies, for example in apparel, have been quickly severing ties to Xinjiang. Apparel makers have been scrambling to develop other sources of organic cotton, including in South America, to replace those stocks. |
| 尽管这部美国法律的影响仍有待观察，但它最终可能会改变全球供应链。一些公司，例如服装公司，已经迅速切断了与新疆的联系。作为取代，服装制造商一直在争先恐后地开发来自南美等其他地区的有机棉。 |
| But other companies, namely large multinationals, have made the calculation that the China market is too valuable to leave, corporate executives and trade groups say. Some have begun walling off their Chinese and U.S. operations, continuing to use Xinjiang materials for the China market or maintain partnerships with entities that operate there. |
| 但企业高管和贸易团体表示，其他大型跨国公司在衡量后认为中国市场太过重要，无法放弃。一些公司已经开始切割他们在中国和美国的业务，继续将新疆材料用于中国市场，或与在那里经营的实体保持合作关系。 |
| It’s a strategy that Richard Mojica, a lawyer at Miller & Chevalier Chartered, said “should suffice,” since the jurisdiction of U.S. customs extends just to imports, although Canada, the United Kingdom, Europe and Australia are considering their own measures. Instead of moving their operations out of China, some multinationals are investing in alternative sources of supply, and making new investments in mapping their supply chains. |
| 米勒与希瓦利埃律师事务所的律师理查德·莫希卡表示，这种策略“应该足够”，因为美国海关的管辖范围仅限进口，尽管加拿大、英国、欧洲和澳大利亚也正在考虑推出各自的措施。一些跨国公司没有将业务迁出中国，而是投资于替代供应来源，并在供应链的规划方面进行了新的投资。 |
| At the heart of the problem is the complexity and opacity of the supply chains that run through China, the world’s largest manufacturing hub. Goods often pass through many layers of companies as they make their way from fields, mines and factories to a warehouse or a store shelf. |
| 问题的核心是，贯穿中国的供应链复杂且不透明，而中国是全球最大的制造业中心。货物从田野、矿山和工厂运往仓库或商店货架时，通常要经过许多层面，涉及许多企业。 |
| Most companies are well acquainted with their direct suppliers for parts or materials. But they may be less familiar with vendors that their primary supplier does business with. Some supply chains have many layers of specialized suppliers, some of whom may contract out their work to other factories. |
| 大多数企业对零件或原材料的直接供应商都非常了解。但它们可能不太熟悉与主要供应商有业务往来的厂商。一些供应链有多层专业供应商，其中一些可能会将工作外包给其他工厂。 |
| Take carmakers, who may need to procure thousands of components, like semiconductors, aluminum, glass, engines and seat fabric. The average carmaker has about 250 tier-one suppliers but exposure to 18,000 other companies across its full supply chain, according to research by McKinsey & Company, the consultancy firm. |
| 以汽车制造商为例，他们可能需要采购成千上万的零部件，例如半导体、铝、玻璃、发动机和座椅面料。根据咨询公司麦肯锡的研究，一般的汽车制造商大约有250家一级供应商，但整个供应链涉及1.8万家其他公司。 |
| Adding to the complexity is reluctance by the Chinese authorities and some companies to cooperate with outside investigations into their supply chains. China tightly controls access to Xinjiang, making it impossible for outside researchers to monitor conditions on the ground, especially since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. In practice, that could make it too difficult for U.S. importers to maintain any ties to Xinjiang, since they won’t be able to verify that businesses there are free of labor violations. |
| 中国的有关部门和一些公司不愿配合外部对其供应链的调查，令情况更加错综复杂。中国严格控制外界前往新疆，使外部研究人员无法监测当地情况，尤其是自新冠病毒大流行开始以来。事实上，这可能会让美国进口商很难与新疆保持任何合作关系，因为他们无法核实那里的企业是否存在侵犯劳工的行为。 |
| Companies whose goods are detained at the U.S. border will have 30 days to give the government “clear and convincing evidence” that their products don’t violate the law. Mr. Bersin said it would likely take customs officials several years to build out a comprehensive enforcement system. |
| 货物在美国边境被扣留的公司将有30天的时间向政府提供“明确和令人信服的证据”，证明它们的产品没有违反法律。伯辛表示，海关官员可能需要数年时间才能建立一个全面的执法系统。 |
| Still, the government has already started to ramp up its capacity for checking and detaining foreign goods. |
| 尽管如此，政府已经开始加强检查和扣留外国商品的能力。 |
| John M. Foote, a partner in the international trade and practice group at Kelley Drye and Warren, said that U.S. Customs and Border Protection, which is responsible for inspecting and detaining goods at the ports, was undergoing a large expansion in staffing. |
| 凯利、德里与沃伦律师事务所国际贸易和实践工作组的合伙人约翰·富特表示，负责港口检查和扣留货物的美国海关和边境保护局正在大规模扩充编制。 |
| It has used $5.6 million to hire 65 new people this year for forced labor enforcement, and set aside an additional $10 million for overtime pay to handle detentions at its ports. For 2023, the White House has requested $70 million to create another 300 full-time positions, including customs officers, import specialists and trade analysts. |
| 今年，它已花费560万美元雇用65名新员工，进行强制劳动执法，并额外拨出1000万美元加班费用于处理港口的扣押问题。针对2023年，白宫已申请7000万美元用于创建300个全职职位，包括海关官员、进口专家和贸易分析师。 |
| These amounts rival or exceed other government enforcement bureaus, such as the Office of Foreign Assets Control, which administers U.S. sanctions, and the Bureau of Industry and Security, which oversees export controls, Mr. Foote wrote in a note to clients. |
| 富特在给客户的一份报告中写道，这些金额可以媲美甚至超越其他政府执法机构的经费，例如管理美国制裁的外国资产控制办公室，以及监督出口管制的工业和安全局。 |
| Any company with a supply chain running through China has to consider the risk that its products could face scrutiny or detentions, he wrote, adding, “There is almost no company in the United States currently truly prepared for this type of enforcement.” |
| 他写道，如果拥有贯穿中国的供应链，任何公司都必须考虑其产品可能面临审查或扣押的风险。他还说，“目前美国几乎没有一家公司为此类执法真正做好了准备。” |
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