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| As Russia tries to break the stranglehold of sanctions, China and India are emerging as Moscow’s pivotal financiers by purchasing large amounts of Russian crude, putting themselves in the middle of the messy war with Ukraine and a geopolitical standoff with the West. | 在俄罗斯试图打破制裁束缚之际，中国和印度大量购买俄罗斯原油，成为莫斯科的大金主，将自己置于与乌克兰的混乱战争，以及同西方的地缘政治对峙中。 |
| It’s a complex calculation for China, India — and the global economy. | 对中印乃至全球经济来说，这都是一个复杂的考量。 |
| Buying cheap oil from Russia offers economic and political advantages. China can diversify its oil supplies for national security reasons, while India can make billions exporting refined products like gasoline and diesel. | 从俄罗斯购买廉价石油带来了经济和政治上的好处。出于国家安全的考虑，中国可以借此使其石油供应多样化；而印度则可以通过出口汽油和柴油等精炼成品油赚取数十亿美元。 |
| But undercutting European and American efforts to isolate the Kremlin risks serious diplomatic fallout that neither country wants. China has avoided overtly supporting Russia’s war in public statements, and India has portrayed itself as neutral. | 但是削弱欧洲和美国孤立克里姆林宫的努力，可能会带来两国都不希望看到的严重外交后果。中国在公开声明中避免公开支持俄罗斯的战争，而印度则强调自己的中立。 |
| The two countries, with the demand from their enormous domestic markets and the supplies from their vast refineries, are also central in determining the direction of oil prices. Their purchases of Russian crude in recent months have helped ease the pressure. | 这两个国家拥有巨大的国内市场需求和庞大的炼油厂供应量，两国在决定油价走向方面也起着关键作用。最近几个月，它们购买的俄罗斯原油帮助缓解了油价压力。 |
| Their ultimate appetite for Russian oil will either shake or support the global economy, another complicating factor in the West’s capacity to stay united through a war of attrition in Ukraine. So far, the West has remained steadfast in its commitment to Ukraine, but a long period of high fuel prices and potential shortages in Europe could become politically unpalatable. | 两国对俄罗斯石油的最终需求将动摇或支持全球经济，这是西方在乌克兰消耗战中保持团结能力的另一个复杂因素。到目前为止，西方对乌克兰的承诺仍然坚定不移，但欧洲长期的高油价和潜在的供应短缺可能会在政治上变得难以接受。 |
| “One of the consequences of this conflict is a fundamental realignment of the global energy system, trading relationships and geopolitical alignments, with China and India more closely aligned with Russia,” said Jason Bordoff, who is director of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and was an adviser to President Barack Obama. | “这场冲突的后果之一，是全球能源体系、贸易关系和地缘政治格局的根本性调整，中国、印度与俄罗斯的结盟更为紧密，”哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心主任、曾任奥巴马总统顾问的杰森·博尔多夫说。 |
| Russia’s biggest export, oil is the currency of war, funding the bullets and rockets deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine. The West is trying to cut off the financial spigot, in part by weaning Europe, Russia’s biggest market, off its energy dependence through sanctions. | 石油是俄罗斯最大的出口商品，是战争的货币，为部署在乌克兰战场上的子弹和火箭提供资金。西方正试图切断俄罗斯的资金来源，其中一种方式是通过制裁，让欧洲这个俄罗斯最大的市场摆脱对该国能源的依赖。 |
| Four months into the war, Russian crude oil exports are down only slightly, as sales to China and India have largely filled the gap left by Europe. India and China bought roughly 2.4 million barrels of Russian crude a day in May, half of Russia’s exports. At least some is being refined into diesel and other fuels, and exported around the world, including to countries that oppose the invasion. | 战争爆发四个月后，俄罗斯原油出口仅略有下降，因为对中国和印度的出口基本上填补了欧洲留下的缺口。今年5月，印度和中国每天从俄罗斯购买大约240万桶原油，占俄罗斯出口量的一半。至少有一些正在被提炼成柴油和其他燃料，并出口到世界各地，包括反对入侵的国家。 |
| China and India have been buying at a 30 percent discount to the global benchmark price, a boon to both economies in a world buffeted by rising inflation. Despite the discounts, Russia’s oil revenues are growing, since prices have climbed to more than $100 a barrel. | 中印一直在以低于全球基准价格30%的折扣买入，在全球通胀不断上升的情况下，这对两个经济体来说都是利好。尽管有折扣，俄罗斯的石油收入仍在增长，因为油价已经攀升到每桶100美元以上。 |
| The shift is just beginning, and the amounts of oil involved are still relatively small. The real test of China’s and India’s willingness to buy Russian oil will come when sanctions take full effect. | 这种转变才刚刚开始，目前涉及的石油量还相对较小。当制裁全面生效时，对中印购买俄罗斯石油意愿的真正考验才会到来。 |
| The European ban on tanker deliveries of Russian crude and refined fuels like diesel will be phased in over the next six months, trade that represents two-thirds of the continent’s purchases from Russia. | 欧洲对油轮运送俄罗斯原油和柴油等精炼燃料的禁令将在未来六个月内逐步实施，这些贸易占欧洲大陆从俄罗斯购买原油的三分之二。 |
| “The dominoes will accelerate in 2023 once the European ban is in place,” said Sarah Emerson, president of ESAI Energy, a research firm. | “一旦欧洲的禁令生效，多米诺骨牌效应将在2023年加速，”研究公司ESAI能源总裁萨拉·爱默生说。 |
| The world’s largest oil importer, China has played a major role in global energy markets for decades, largely depending on the Middle East and Russia for supplies. | 中国是世界上最大的石油进口国，几十年来一直在全球能源市场扮演着重要角色，它主要依赖中东和俄罗斯的供应。 |
| With the United States growing increasingly self-sufficient for its energy needs, the arrangement meant that the American Navy patrolling the Persian Gulf was effectively protecting Chinese supply lines. China got its oil without immersing itself in messy Middle Eastern politics, while its trade with the United States increased. | 随着美国的能源需求日益自给自足，这样的安排意味着在波斯湾巡逻的美国海军实际上是在保护中国的补给线。中国获得了石油，却没有陷入混乱的中东政治，而与此同时，它与美国的贸易也在增加。 |
| It is trying to do the same now, in balancing its economic and geopolitical interests. Importing more Russian oil not only is cheaper, but also helps diversify supplies. | 现在，为了平衡经济和地缘政治利益，中国继续努力这样做。进口更多俄罗斯石油不仅价格更便宜，而且有助于实现供应的多样化。 |
| “China’s conduct has been consistent with its longstanding national security objectives,” said David Goldwyn, the senior State Department energy diplomat in the first term of the Obama administration. That is, he said, “diversifying supply away from the Middle East, prioritizing transportation routes which cannot be blocked by the U.S. Navy and containing Russia by increasing its dependency on China as a primary buyer of oil and gas, all at the lowest possible cost.” | “中国的行为符合其长期以来的国家安全目标，”奥巴马政府第一届任期的国务院高级能源外交官戴维·戈德温说。他说，那就是，“分散中东以外的供应，提高美国海军无法封锁的运输路线的优先级，通过成为俄罗斯石油和天然气主要买家增加其对中国的依赖性，进而遏制这个国家，所有这些都以尽可能低的成本进行。” |
| This pattern played out during Russia’s takeover of Crimea in 2014. As the West imposed sanctions on Moscow, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia flew to China to strike a natural gas deal that had been in the works for a decade. China negotiated a hard bargain for cheap gas, frustrating Western efforts to isolate Moscow but without endorsing the takeover of Crimea. | 这种模式在2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚期间得到了体现。随着西方对莫斯科实施制裁，俄罗斯总统普京飞往中国，达成一项已经酝酿了十年的天然气交易。中国就廉价天然气进行了艰难的谈判，在没有支持占领克里米亚的情况下挫败了西方孤立莫斯科的努力。 |
| Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has walked a fine line, at least publicly. China’s state-controlled media and government officials have been silent on Russian oil, and Chinese oil companies have followed the same cautious script. | 自从俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，中国至少在公开场合非常注意拿捏分寸。中国官方控制的媒体和政府官员一直对俄罗斯石油保持沉默，中国石油公司也遵循同样的谨慎态度。 |
| “The companies don’t want to be called out for aiding and abetting Putin’s war machine,” said Erica Downs, a Columbia University senior research scholar. | 哥伦比亚大学高级研究学者埃里卡·唐斯说：“这些公司不想因为帮助和支持普京的战争机器而被指责。” |
| There may also be limits to China’s appetite. China has traditionally tried to ensure a multitude of energy sources. And its relationship with Russia has long been uneasy, despite the vow by Chinese leaders of a “no limit” friendship. | 中国的胃口也可能有限。传统上，中国一直试图确保能源来源的多样性。尽管中国领导人发誓要与俄罗斯建立“没有止境”的友谊，但两国的关系长期以来并不稳定。 |
| “There are no limits in China-Russian cooperation, but there is a bottom line,” Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States, said in a television interview in March. “The bottom line is the universally recognized international law and norms governing international relations.” | “中俄之间合作没有禁区，但也是有底线的，”中国驻美国大使秦刚在3月份接受电视采访时说。“这个底线是公认的国际法和国际关系的基本准则。” |
| India’s switch to Russian oil has been swift and significant. | 印度快速转向俄罗斯石油，意义重大。 |
| Before the Ukraine war, Russia accounted for about 1 percent of India’s oil needs. Russia is now poised to overtake Iraq as India’s primary source of oil this month, according to Kpler, a commodity data company. Russian exports to India will reach 1.15 million barrels a day in June — up from 33,000 barrels a day last year and about 600,000 in March — while Iraq deliveries will drop to just over a million barrels a day, Kpler data show. | 在乌克兰战争之前，俄罗斯约占印度石油需求的1%。据大宗商品数据公司Kpler称，俄罗斯现在有望在本月取代伊拉克，成为印度的主要石油来源。Kpler数据显示，俄罗斯对印度的出口量将在6月达到每天115万桶，高于去年的每天3.3万桶，以及3月的每天60万桶，而伊拉克的出口量将降至每天略高于100万桶。 |
| To the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sufficient supplies of cheap fuel will help tackle inflation and prevent the kind of widespread shortages that have incited violence and political change in nearby Sri Lanka. | 对印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的政府来说，充足的廉价燃料供应将有助于应对通货膨胀，并防止发生大范围短缺，在临近的斯里兰卡，类似的短缺引发了暴力和政治变革。 |
| India’s foreign minister, S. Jaishankar, has repeatedly defended the country’s strategy against mounting criticism from Western countries. He said Western sanctions on Iran and isolating policies toward Venezuela had left India with fewer options as energy prices continue to climb. | 印度外交部长苏杰生一再为该国的战略辩护，反对西方国家越来越多的批评。他说，随着能源价格持续攀升，西方对伊朗的制裁和对委内瑞拉的孤立政策减少了印度的选择。 |
| “They’ve squeezed every other source of oil we have and then say, OK, guys, you must not go into the market and get the best deal for your people,” Mr. Jaishankar said. “I don’t think that’s a very fair approach.” | “他们压缩了我们其他的每一个石油来源，然后说，听好，你绝对不能去市场上为你的人民争取最好的交易，”苏杰生说。“这种做法不是很公平。” |
| With robust refining capacity of five million barrels of fuel a day, India could absorb an additional 350,000 barrels of Russian oil, or roughly a third more than it is currently importing, according to energy experts. India has already stopped buying oil from Mexico, slashed purchases from Nigeria and pulled back from Saudi Arabia and the United States. | 据能源专家称，凭借每天500万桶的强大炼油能力，印度可以额外吸收35万桶俄罗斯石油，比目前的进口量多出约三分之一。印度已经停止从墨西哥购买石油，削减了从尼日利亚的购买量，并撤销与沙特阿拉伯和美国的交易。 |
| “A new alignment of world politics is unfolding across the globe that is being drawn with oil and gas,” said Daniel Yergin, author of “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.” “And China and India are very much at the center of it.” | “一个取决于石油和天然气的新的世界政治联盟正在全球成形，”《新地图：能源、气候和国家冲突》(The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations)一书的作者丹尼尔·耶金说。“而中国和印度正处于核心位置。” |
| The Russian oil gradually flowing into Asia is replacing Saudi and other Middle Eastern oil, which is now finding its way to Europe. The shift is creating heightened competition among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, with Iraq slashing prices to Europe. | 俄罗斯石油正在逐渐流入亚洲，取代来自沙特和其他中东地区的石油——它们现在正在寻找通往欧洲的道路。这一转变正在加剧欧佩克成员国之间的竞争，其中伊拉克已对欧洲降价。 |
| Saudi Arabia and its gulf allies have viewed Asia as their growth market, and suddenly they are finding themselves elbowed aside. Russia and Saudi Arabia, the main players of OPEC Plus, the expanded version of the cartel, have worked together to control supplies and bolster prices in recent years. Russia may need to be careful not to depend on Asia too much, though its options are limited. | 沙特阿拉伯及其海湾盟友一直将亚洲视为它们的增长市场，突然间发现自己被排挤到了一边。俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯是欧佩克的扩大版“欧佩克+”的主要参与者，近年来它们共同努力控制供应量并支撑油价。俄罗斯可能需要注意不要过度依赖亚洲，尽管它没有多少选择。 |
| “Russian displacement of Saudi crude in the Chinese economy could create strains in OPEC Plus,” said Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School and a former aide to President George W. Bush, “making the Saudis more willing to take steps that would harm Russian interests, and bring down the global price further.” | “中国经济中的沙特原油被俄罗斯取代可能会给欧佩克+带来压力，”哈佛肯尼迪学院能源项目地缘政治项目主任、乔治·布什总统的前助手梅根·奥沙利文说。“这使沙特人更愿意采取损害俄罗斯利益的措施，并进一步降低全球价格。” |
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