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| A virus that shows no signs of disappearing, variants that are adept at dodging the body’s defenses, and waves of infections two, maybe three times a year — this may be the future of Covid-19, some scientists now fear. |
| 一种看起来不打算消失的病毒，拥有擅长躲避身体防御的变异，每年都会带来两三波感染——一些科学家现在担心，这可能就是新冠病毒的未来。 |
| The central problem is that the coronavirus has become more adept at reinfecting people. Already, those infected with the first Omicron variant are reporting second infections with the newer versions of the variant — BA.2 or BA2.12.1 in the United States, or BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa. |
| 核心问题是，新冠病毒已变得更容易再次感染。已经有报告说，感染了第一个奥密克戎变异株的人第二次感染了该变异株的较新版本——美国的BA.2或BA2.12.1，或者南非的BA.4和BA.5。 |
| Those people may go on to have third or fourth infections, even within this year, researchers said in interviews. And some small fraction may have symptoms that persist for months or years, a condition known as long Covid. |
| 研究人员在采访中说，这些人可能会继续第三次或第四次感染，甚至在今年之内。一小部分人的症状可能会持续数月或数年，这种情况被称为长期新冠病毒感染。 |
| “It seems likely to me that that’s going to sort of be a long-term pattern,” said Juliet Pulliam, an epidemiologist at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. |
| “在我看来，这可能会成为一种长期模式，”南非斯泰伦博斯大学流行病学家朱丽叶·普利亚姆说。 |
| “The virus is going to keep evolving,” she added. “And there are probably going to be a lot of people getting many, many reinfections throughout their lives.” |
| “病毒会继续进化，”她还说。“可能会有很多人一生中再次感染很多次。” |
| It’s difficult to quantify how frequently people are reinfected, in part because many infections are now going unreported. Dr. Pulliam and her colleagues have collected enough data in South Africa to say that the rate is higher with Omicron than seen with previous variants. |
| 再次感染率很难被量化，部分原因是许多感染现在都没有报告。普利亚姆和她的同事在南非收集了足够的数据，可以证明，与之前的变异株相比，奥密克戎的再次感染率更高。 |
| This is not how it was supposed to be. Earlier in the pandemic, experts thought that immunity from vaccination or previous infection would forestall most reinfections. |
| 这种情况是出人意料的。疫情早期，专家们认为，接种疫苗或以前感染所产生的免疫力可以预防大多数再次感染。 |
| The Omicron variant dashed those hopes. Unlike previous variants, Omicron and its many descendants seem to have evolved to partially dodge immunity. That leaves everyone — even those who have been vaccinated multiple times — vulnerable to multiple infections. |
| 奥密克戎变异株使得这样的希望破灭了。与之前的变异株不同，奥密克戎和它的许多后裔似乎已经进化到可以逃避部分免疫。这使得每个人——即使是那些已经多次接种疫苗的人——都容易受到多次感染。 |
| “If we manage it the way that we manage it now, then most people will get infected with it at least a couple of times a year,” said Kristian Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego. “I would be very surprised if that’s not how it’s going to play out.” |
| “如果我们以现在的方式来应对，那么大多数人一年至少会感染几次，”圣地亚哥斯克里普斯研究所的病毒学家克里斯蒂安·安德森说。 “如果不是这样的结果，我会非常惊讶。” |
| The new variants have not altered the fundamental usefulness of the Covid vaccines. Most people who have received three or even just two doses will not become sick enough to need medical care if they test positive for the coronavirus. And a booster dose, like a previous bout with the virus, does seem to decrease the chance of reinfection — but not by much. |
| 新的变异株并没有改变新冠疫苗的基本有效性。如果新冠病毒检测结果呈阳性，大多数接受过三剂甚至两剂疫苗者病情不会发展到需要医疗护理的程度。而且，像之前的病毒暴发时一样，加强针似乎确实可以减少再次感染的机会——但不会减少太多。 |
| At the pandemic’s outset, many experts based their expectations of the coronavirus on influenza, the viral foe most familiar to them. They predicted that, as with the flu, there might be one big outbreak each year, most likely in the fall. The way to minimize its spread would be to vaccinate people before its arrival. |
| 疫情开始时，许多专家以他们最熟悉的病毒敌人——流感病毒为基础，对新冠病毒的走势进行预测。他们预测，就像流感一样，新冠病毒疫情每年可能会有一次大暴发，最有可能发生在秋季。尽量减少传播的方法是在疫情到来之前给人们接种疫苗。 |
| Instead, the coronavirus is behaving more like four of its closely related cousins, which circulate and cause colds year round. While studying common-cold coronaviruses, “we saw people with multiple infections within the space of a year,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University in New York. |
| 相反，新冠病毒的表现更像它的四个近亲，它们都是全年传播并导致感冒。纽约哥伦比亚大学的流行病学家杰弗里·沙曼说，在研究普通感冒冠状病毒时，“我们发现人们在一年时间里多次感染。” |
| If reinfection turns out to be the norm, the coronavirus is “not going to simply be this wintertime once-a-year thing,” he said, “and it’s not going to be a mild nuisance in terms of the amount of morbidity and mortality it causes.” |
| 他说，如果再次感染成为常态，新冠病毒“将不仅仅是这种每年冬季发生一次的事情，就发病率和死亡率而言，它也不会是一种轻微的小麻烦”。 |
| Reinfections with earlier variants, including Delta, did occur but were relatively infrequent. But in September, the pace of reinfections in South Africa seemed to pick up and was markedly high by November, when the Omicron variant was identified, Dr. Pulliam said. |
| 包括德尔塔在内的一些以前的变异株也会发生再次感染，但相对少见。但普利亚姆说，南非的再次感染速度在9月似乎有所加快，到了11月，也就是奥密克戎变异株被确认的时候，再感染的速度明显加快。 |
| Reinfections in South Africa, as in the United States, may seem even more noticeable because so many have been immunized or infected at least once by now. |
| 与美国一样，南非的再次感染似乎更加明显，因为目前有许多人已经接种了疫苗，或者至少被感染过一次。 |
| “The perception magnifies what’s actually going on biologically,” Dr. Pulliam said. “It’s just that there are more people who are eligible for reinfection.” |
| “这种感受放大了生物学上实际发生的情况，”普利亚姆说。“只是有更多人符合再次感染的条件。” |
| The Omicron variant was different enough from Delta, and Delta from earlier versions of the virus, that some reinfections were to be expected. But now, Omicron seems to be evolving new forms that penetrate immune defenses with relatively few changes to its genetic code. |
| 奥密克戎变异株与德尔塔不同，德尔塔与新冠病毒的早期版本也不同，因此一些再次感染是可以预期的。但现在，奥密克戎似乎正在进化新的形式，可以穿透免疫防御系统，其遗传密码的变化相对较少。 |
| “This is actually for me a bit of a surprise,” said Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute. “I thought we’ll need a kind of brand-new variant to escape from this one. But in fact, it seems like you don’t.” |
| “这实际上让我有点吃惊，”非洲卫生研究所的病毒学家亚历克斯·西格尔说。“我曾经以为会有一种全新的变异株，从而让我们摆脱这个变异株。但事实上似乎不是这样。” |
| An infection with Omicron produces a weaker immune response, which seems to wane quickly, compared with infections with previous variants. Although the newer versions of the variant are closely related, they vary enough from an immune perspective that infection with one doesn’t leave much protection against the others — and certainly not after three or four months. |
| 感染奥密克戎后会产生较弱的免疫反应，与以前的变异株造成的感染相比，这种反应似乎很快就会减弱。尽管较新版本的几个变异株之间有着密切的关系，但从免疫角度来看，它们之间的差异很大，感染一个变异株所产生的免疫力并不能对其他变异株提供多少保护——当然在感染三四个月后也不能。 |
| Still, the good news is that most people who are reinfected with new versions of Omicron will not become seriously ill. At least at the moment, the virus has not hit upon a way to fully sidestep the immune system. |
| 不过，好消息是，大多数再次感染新版本奥密克戎病毒的人不会患上重病。至少目前，该病毒还没有找到一种完全避开免疫系统的方法。 |
| “That’s probably as good as it gets for now,” Dr. Sigal said. “The big danger might come when the variant will be completely different.” |
| “这可能是目前最好的结果了，”西格尔说。“当变异株完全不同时，最大的危险可能就来了。” |
| Each infection may bring with it the possibility of long Covid, the constellation of symptoms that can persist for months or years. It’s too early to know how often an Omicron infection leads to long Covid, especially in vaccinated people. |
| 每一次感染都会带来长期新冠的可能性，即可能持续数月或数年的一系列症状组合。目前还不足以判断奥密克戎感染导致长期新冠症状的几率，尤其是在接种过疫苗的人群中。 |
| To keep up with the evolving virus, other experts said, the Covid vaccines should be updated more quickly, even more quickly than flu vaccines are each year. Even an imperfect match to a new form of the coronavirus will still broaden immunity and offer some protection, they said. |
| 还有专家表示，为了跟上不断演变的病毒，新冠疫苗的更新速度要加快，甚至比流感疫苗每年的更新速度更快。他们说，即使疫苗与新型冠状病毒并不完全匹配，也会扩大免疫力，提供一些保护。 |
| “Every single time we think we’re through this, every single time we think we have the upper hand, the virus pulls a trick on us,” Dr. Andersen said. “The way to get it under control is not, ‘Let’s all get infected a few times a year and then hope for the best.’” |
| “每当我们认为已经度过了难关，每当我们认为占了上风的时候，病毒就会捉弄我们，”安德森说。“控制它的办法并不是，‘让我们每年都感染几次，然后期待最好的结果。’” |
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