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| SEOUL — When North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, acknowledged an outbreak of Covid-19 last week, he ordered his government to learn from China’s “success” fighting the virus. What he did not say is that an attempt to follow China’s pandemic response could send his impoverished country toward catastrophe. | 首尔——朝鲜领导人金正恩上周承认国内暴发了新冠病毒疫情时，他命令政府官员学习中国抗击病毒的“成功”经验。他没有说的是，试图按照中国应对大流行的策略去做可能会让这个贫穷的国家陷入灾难。 |
| China has used strict lockdowns, mass testing and vaccinations to keep cases low throughout the pandemic. North Korea — which by its own admission is experiencing an explosive outbreak of the virus — lacks the basic therapeutics and food supplies that China has mobilized to enforce the extreme restrictions seen in cities like Wuhan, Xi’an and Shanghai. | 中国在疫情期间将感染病例保持在低水平，靠的是严格的封锁、大规模核酸检测以及疫苗接种。已主动承认正在经历新冠病毒爆炸性传播的朝鲜缺乏中国可调动的最基本的药物和食品供应，后者正是依靠这些能力，才得以在武汉、西安和上海等城市实施极端的限制措施。 |
| Now, public health experts are warning that Mr. Kim’s desire to follow the Chinese model will only worsen the impact of a fast spreading disaster. Already the number of new suspected patients in North Korea has soared from 18,000 last Thursday to hundreds of thousands a day this week, though it is impossible to know the true scale of the outbreak. | 现在，公共卫生专家警告，金正恩想按照中国模式去做的愿望只会令这场正在迅速蔓延的灾难恶化。朝鲜新增的疑似感染病例数已从上周四的1.8万例飙升至本周的日增数十万例，虽然人们无法知道疫情的真正规模。 |
| North Korea called itself Covid-free for two years until it confirmed an outbreak for the first time last Thursday. Most people are unvaccinated, and the country is so isolated that when an estimated two million people died during a famine in the mid-1990s, the outside world didn’t know about it until the bodies of famished North Koreans started washing up along the shallow river that borders China. | 在上周四首次确认暴发了新冠疫情之前，朝鲜曾在两年多的时间里一直号称国内没有新冠病毒。朝鲜的大多数人没有接种疫苗。它如此孤立，以至于上世纪90年代该国发生了导致约200万人死亡的饥荒后，外界毫不知晓，直到离中国边境不远的一条浅河里开始出现朝鲜饿毙者的尸体。 |
| Without enough testing kits to accurately measure the size of the outbreak, North Korea has relied on the number of “people found with fevers,” not the number who have tested positive for the virus. It has reported 62 deaths out of nearly 1.7 million suspected patients. On Wednesday, state media claimed a million people had already recovered from fever, though experts doubt the numbers being reported by North Korea are reliable. | 由于没有足够的病毒检测试剂盒，朝鲜无法衡量疫情的准确规模，只能用“发热患者”数来取代病毒检测呈阳性的人数。朝鲜已通报了近170万例疑似患者，称其中已有62人死亡。周三，朝鲜官方媒体称，已有100万名发热患者已康复，虽然专家们对朝鲜通报的数字表示怀疑。 |
| “I don’t think North Korea is honest with the number of deaths,” said Jacob Lee, a specialist in infectious diseases at Hallym University Medical Center in South Korea. “It is likely playing that number down to help control its people.” | “我认为朝鲜没有如实公布死亡人数，”韩国翰林大学医学中心的传染病专家雅各布·李说。“朝鲜很可能低报死亡人数，以帮助控制其人民。” |
| North Korea cannot feed its own people in the best of times. Its state rations system collapsed during the famine in the 1990s and never recovered, leaving people fending for themselves. If North Koreans were placed under the kind of extreme lockdowns seen in China, outside health experts say, the government would be unable to provide basic needs. | 即使在境况最好的时候，朝鲜也没有足够的粮食养活人民。在上世纪90年代的饥荒期间，朝鲜的国家配给系统崩溃了，再也没有恢复过来，老百姓只能自己解决吃饭问题。如果朝鲜人被置于中国那种极端封控之下的话，境外卫生专家表示，朝鲜政府将无力提供满足基本需求的物资。 |
| “For North Koreans, that would mean the country going back to the ration system,” Dr. Lee said. “I doubt it will work. Even China had difficulties with logistics and supplies of food for people in lockdown cities.” | “对朝鲜人来说，这意味着他们要回到配给制度，”李博士说。“我怀疑这种做法可行。就连中国也在为被封城市的居民提供物资和食品供应上遇到了困难。” |
| North Korea appears to be following a strategy similar to China’s, but with variations. It has ordered all cities and counties to lock down, yet urged them to continue to “organize work and production.” Although traffic was banned between cities and counties, people are still allowed to move around within their districts and report for work at farms and factories, according to Asia Press, a Japan-based website that reports on North Korea with the help of informants inside the country. | 朝鲜似乎是在按照一种与中国类似的策略行事，但也有所不同。虽然朝鲜已下令国内所有市县采取全面封控措施，但也在督促各地继续“组织生产工作”。据总部位于日本的亚洲新闻社报道（它在朝鲜国内有自己的信源），虽然各地之间的交通已被禁止，但人们仍可在他们所在地区内流动，仍能去农场和工厂上班。 |
| There was also an extensive campaign to check temperatures at factories and residential compounds, and people have been allowed to go to informal markets for food and other necessities, according to Asia Press. | 据该新闻社报道，朝鲜还在工厂和住宅区广泛开展测体温的行动，允许人们去自由市场购买食品和其他生活必需品。 |
| Shutting down the informal markets could be devastating because most North Koreans rely on them to supplement their meager government rations. “I don’t think the regime would go so far as to shut down the markets completely,” said Lee Tae-kyung, who worked as a physician in North Korea until he fled the country in 2006 as part of a stream of refugees. “When it tried to in the past, people pushed back, shouting at the police. It’s a matter of life or death.” | 关闭自由市场可能会带来毁灭性的后果，因为大多数朝鲜人靠它们来补充政府微薄的配给。“我认为朝鲜政权不会走到彻底关闭市场的地步，”李泰京（音）说，他曾在朝鲜当医生，2006年加入难民大军逃离朝鲜。“它以前尝试过，人们会反抗，大骂警察。这是生死攸关的问题。” |
| In contrast with Mr. Kim’s praise for China’s coronavirus policies, a growing number of health organizations and global leaders have criticized them as unsustainable. China’s borders remain closed and it has rarely allowed outside experts to visit since the pandemic began. Foreign investment is drying up, and some educated young people are leaving the country rather than live through another lockdown. | 与金正恩对中国应对新冠病毒政策的赞扬相反，卫生组织和全球领导人正在越来越多地批评中国的政策不可持续。自大流行开始以来，中国一直关闭边境，很少允许国外专家来访。外国投资正在枯竭，一些受过高等教育的年轻人正在离开这个国家，他们不愿再经历一次封控。 |
| “Countries like South Korea could battle an Omicron outbreak with relatively low fatalities because they had solid public health systems, high vaccination rates and therapeutics, and because their people were relatively healthy and well-fed,” said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University in South Korea, referring to a variant of the virus. “North Korea has none of those.” | “韩国这样的国家能够在与奥密克戎变异株作斗争中有相对较少的死亡，不仅因为它们有可靠的公共卫生系统、较高的疫苗接种率，以及治疗方法，也因为它们的人民身体相对健康、营养充足。”韩国嘉泉大学预防医学教授郑在勋（音）说。“朝鲜的情况完全不同。” |
| The origin of the North Korean outbreak is still unclear, but in recent weeks, Mr. Kim mobilized tens of thousands of people without masks for a large military parade in Pyongyang, the capital, to celebrate the country’s growing nuclear capabilities. He also mobilized students and workers to help plant rice in the countryside this month, an extremely important task in a nation that suffers chronic grain shortages. | 虽然朝鲜疫情的源头仍不清楚，但在最近几周，金正恩曾调动数万人，不戴口罩在首都平壤参加大型阅兵游行，庆祝该国日益强大的核能力。本月，他还调动学生和工人去农村帮助种水稻，在一个长期缺粮的国家，这是一个极为重要的任务。 |
| North Korean officials first found infections in a group of college students who attended the military parade, including one who apparently got the virus from a relative who had recently visited China, said Daily NK, a Seoul-based website that reports on North Korea. North Korean state media reported that more fever cases had been found in Pyongyang, as well as in southern provinces where most of the rice-planting took place. | 据从首尔报道朝鲜的网站“每日朝鲜”称，朝鲜官员最早是在一群参加了阅兵式的大学生中发现新冠病毒感染病例的，其中一名学生似乎是从最近去过中国的亲戚那里感染了病毒。朝鲜官媒的报道说，在平壤和主要种植水稻的南部地区发现了更多的发热病例。 |
| When the outbreak was publicized last week, it quickly revealed that the secretive nation was desperately unprepared. North Korean officials said fever cases began spreading late last month. But as of Saturday, the country had confirmed only 168 Covid cases, according to Ryu Yong-chol, a disease-control official who appeared on state television on Monday. | 朝鲜上周公布了疫情暴发的消息时，人们立即意识到这个神秘的国家对新冠病毒毫无准备。朝鲜官员说，发热病例上月底开始蔓延。但据周一出现在国家电视台的疾病控制官员柳永哲（音）说，截至上周六，全国只有168例新冠病毒确诊病例。 |
| “The medicines provided by the state have not been supplied to inhabitants through pharmacies correctly in time,” Mr. Kim admitted. | “国家提供的药品没有通过药房正确及时地供应给居民，”金正恩承认。 |
| China’s isolationist approach in the pandemic may be what appeals most to Mr. Kim as he tries to respond to the crisis and maintain his godlike authority over his people. When Seoul tried to send an invitation to discuss pandemic-related aid this week, North Korea refused to accept it. It has also refused donations from Covax, the global vaccine program. The country has never officially explained why, but it has been reluctant to accept aid shipments that would require that observers be allowed into the country. | 随着金正恩努力应对这场危机，维护他在人民面前神一般的权威，中国对新冠病毒大流行采取的孤立主义做法也许对他最有吸引力。韩国本周曾尝试向朝鲜发出邀请，一起讨论与新冠病毒大流行有关的援助问题，结果遭到拒绝。朝鲜还拒绝了全球疫苗项目Covax的捐赠。虽然朝鲜官方从未解释过拒绝的原因，但该国一直不愿接受需要由观察员陪同入境的援助物资。 |
| South Korean media reported on Tuesday that three North Korean cargo planes made a round trip to the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang on Monday to pick up 150 tons of emergency aid. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined to confirm the report. | 韩国媒体周二报道称，三架朝鲜货机周一飞到中国东北城市沈阳，载上150吨紧急救援物资后飞回国。中国外交部拒绝证实这一报道。 |
| Still, Mr. Lee, the physician who once worked in North Korea, doubts that the situation will improve soon. “What you consider bad is different from what the North Korean regime considers bad,” he said. “When millions died during the famine, the regime didn’t flinch.” | 尽管如此，曾在朝鲜工作的李先生对情况很快会好转持怀疑态度。“你认为的糟糕与朝鲜政权认为的糟糕完全不同，”他说。“数百万人死于饥荒也没有让朝鲜的政权退缩。” |
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