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| For the past three decades, companies and consumers benefited from cross-border connections that kept a steady supply of electronics, clothes, toys and other goods so abundant it helped prices stay low. | 过去30年里，企业和消费者受益于跨境联系，这种联系令电子产品、服装、玩具和其他商品保持稳定充足的供应，也有助于将价格保持在低位。 |
| But as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine continue to weigh on trade and business ties, that period of plenty appears to be undergoing a partial reversal. Companies are rethinking where to source their products and stocking up on inventory, even if that means lower efficiency and higher costs. If it lasts, such a shift away from fine-tuned globalization could have important implications for inflation and the world’s economy. | 但随着疫情和乌克兰战争持续影响贸易和商业关系，这种繁荣时期似乎正在发生部分逆转。企业开始重新考虑在何处采购产品和增加库存，即使这意味着效率下降和成本上升。如果这种情况持续下去，意味着从经过精心优化的全球化脱离出来，这样的趋势会对通胀和世界经济产生重要影响。 |
| Economists are debating whether recent supply chain turmoil and geopolitical conflicts will result in a reversal or reconfiguration of global production, in which factories that were sent offshore move back to the United States and other countries that pose less of a political risk. | 经济学家们正在讨论，最近的供应链动荡和地缘政治冲突是否会导致全球生产的逆转或重新配置，被安排在海外的工厂是否会搬回美国或其他政治风险较小的国家。 |
| If that happens, a decades-long decline in the prices of many goods could come to an end or even begin to go in the other direction, potentially boosting overall inflation. Since around 1995, durable goods like cars and equipment have tamped down inflation, and prices for nondurable goods like clothing and toys have often grown only slowly. | 如果这种情况发生，许多商品价格长达数十年的下降可能结束，甚至开始上涨，这可能会推高整体通胀。自1995年左右以来，汽车和设备等耐用品抑制了通货膨胀，而服装和玩具等非耐用品的价格往往只是缓慢增长。 |
| Those trends began to change in late 2020 after the onset of the pandemic, as shipping costs soared and shortages collided with strong demand to push car, furniture and equipment prices higher. While few economists expect the past year’s breakneck price increases to continue, the question is whether the trend toward at least slightly pricier goods will last. | 这些趋势在疫情暴发后的2020年底开始变化，航运成本飙升，供应短缺与强劲的需求产生矛盾，推动汽车、家具和设备价格走高。虽然很少有经济学家预计过去一年的物价飞速上涨会持续下去，但问题是，商品价格至少略为增高的趋势是否还将持续。 |
| The answer could hinge on whether a shift away from globalization takes hold. | 答案可能取决于脱离全球化的转变是否继续下去。 |
| “It would certainly be a different world — it might be a world of perhaps higher inflation, perhaps lower productivity, but more resilient, more robust supply chains,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event last month when asked about a possible move away from globalization. | “肯定会是一个不同的世界——或许是一个通胀可能更高、生产率可能更低、但供应链更有灵活性、更健全的世界，”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上月在一次活动上被问及是否可能脱离全球化时表示。 |
| Still, Mr. Powell said, it’s not obvious how drastically conditions will change. “It’s not clear that we’re seeing a reversal of globalization,” he said. “It’s clear that it’s slowed down.” | 不过，鲍威尔说，目前还不清楚情况会有多大的变化。“我们还不清楚全球化是否正在逆转，”他说。“很明显，它的速度放缓了。” |
| The period of global integration that prevailed before the pandemic made many of the things Americans buy cheaper. Computers and other technology made factories more efficient, and they chugged out sneakers, kitchen tables and electronics at a pace unmatched in history. Companies slashed their production cost by moving factories offshore, where wages were lower. The adoption of steel shipping containers, and ever larger cargo ships, allowed products to be whisked from Bangladesh and China to Seattle and Tupelo and everywhere in between for astonishingly low prices. | 在大流行之前的全球一体化时期，美国人买的很多东西都更加便宜。电脑和其他技术提高了工厂的效率，它们以史上无与伦比的速度生产运动鞋、厨房桌和电子产品。企业将工厂转移到工资更低的海外，从而削减生产成本。钢铁集装箱的采用以及越来越大的货船，使得产品能以惊人的低价从孟加拉和中国快速运往西雅图和图佩洛，以及两者之间的任何地方。 |
| But those changes also had consequences for American factory workers, who saw many jobs disappear. The political backlash to globalization helped carry former President Donald J. Trump into office, as he promised to bring factories back to the United States. His trade wars and rising tariffs encouraged some companies to move operations out of China, although typically to other low-cost countries like Vietnam and Mexico. | 但这些变化也对美国工厂工人产生了影响，他们看到许多工作岗位消失了。对全球化的政治反弹帮助前总统唐纳德·特朗普上台，因为他承诺将工厂带回美国。他的贸易战和不断上涨的关税鼓励一些公司将业务转移出中国，尽管通常是转移到越南和墨西哥等其他低成本国家。 |
| The pandemic also exposed the snowball effect of highly optimized supply chains: Factory shutdowns and transportation delays made it difficult to secure some goods and parts, including semiconductors that are crucial for electronics, appliances and cars. Shipping costs have soared by a factor of 10 in just two years, erasing the cost savings of making some products overseas. | 这场疫情还暴露出高度优化的供应链的滚雪球效应：工厂关闭和运输延误使得一些商品和零部件难以获得保障，包括对电子、家电和汽车至关重要的半导体。运输成本在短短两年内飙升了10倍，抵消了一些产品在海外生产所节省的成本。 |
| Starting late in 2020, prices for washing machines, couches and other big products jumped sharply as production limitations collided with high demand. | 从2020年底开始，由于生产限制与高需求发生冲突，洗衣机、沙发和其他大型产品的价格大幅飙升。 |
| Inflation has only accelerated since. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further snarled supply chains, raising the prices of gas and other commodities in recent months and helping to push the Fed’s closely watched inflation index up 6.6 percent over the year through March. | 自那以来，通货膨胀依然在加速。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰进一步扰乱了供应链，近几个月来推高了天然气和其他大宗商品的价格，并推动美联储密切关注的通胀指数在截至3月的一年内上涨了6.6%。 |
| That is the fastest pace of inflation since 1982, and price gains are touching the highest level in decades across many advanced economies, including the eurozone and Britain. | 这是1982年以来的最快通胀速度，在包括欧元区和英国在内的许多发达经济体中，物价涨幅达到了几十年来的最高水平。 |
| Many economists expect price increases for durable goods to cool substantially in the months ahead, which should help calm overall price gains. Data from March suggested that they were beginning to moderate. Rising Fed interest rates could help temper buying, as borrowing to buy cars, machines or home improvement supplies becomes more expensive. | 许多经济学家预计，未来几个月耐用品价格涨幅将大幅降温，这应该有助于平抑整体价格涨幅。3月份的数据显示，涨幅开始变得温和。美联储加息可能有助于抑制购买，因为贷款购买汽车、机器或家居装修用品变得更加昂贵。 |
| But there are still questions about whether — in light of what companies and countries have learned — major products will return to the steady price declines that were the norm before the coronavirus. | 但是，鉴于公司和各国已经了解到的情况，主要产品的价格是否会恢复新冠疫情之前的常态，仍存在疑问。 |
| It’s not clear yet to what extent factories are moving closer to home. A “reshoring index” published by Kearney, a management consulting firm, was negative in 2020 and 2021, indicating that the United States was importing more manufactured goods from low-cost countries. | 目前还不清楚工厂在多大程度上向国内靠近。管理咨询公司科尔尼发布的“回流指数”在2020年和2021年为负值，表明美国从低成本国家进口了更多的制成品。 |
| But more firms reported moving their supply chains out of China to other countries, and American executives were more positive about bringing more manufacturing to the United States. | 但更多公司表示将供应链从中国转移到其他国家，而美国高管也对制造业回流美国持更乐观的态度。 |
| Duke Realty, which rents warehouse and industrial facilities in the United States, expects the change to be a source of demand in years to come, though the reworking may take a while. Customers are “now future-proofing their supply chains,” Steve Schnur, the firm’s chief operating officer, said on an earnings call last week. | 在美国从事仓库和工业设施租赁的杜克房地产公司预计，这种变化将在未来几年成为需求来源，尽管改造可能会花上一段时间。该公司首席运营官史蒂夫·施努尔上周在财报电话会议上表示，客户“现在正在为他们的供应链寻找抵抗未来风险的保障”。 |
| “Some reshoring is occurring — let’s make no mistake about that,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, said in an interview. But the data show that most businesses are mitigating risk by building up their inventories and finding additional suppliers in low-cost countries, Dr. Okonjo-Iweala said. That process could end up integrating poorer countries in Africa and other parts of the world more deeply into global value chains, she said. | 世界贸易组织总干事恩戈齐·奥孔约-伊卫拉在接受采访时说：“一些产业正在回流，这一点是毋庸置疑的。”但奥孔乔-伊维拉博士说，数据显示，大多数企业正在通过增加库存和在低成本国家寻找更多供应商来降低风险。她说，这一过程最终可能会使非洲和世界其他地区的较贫穷国家更深入地整合到全球价值链。 |
| In an interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Monday, Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, said American consumers had enjoyed the “luxury” of low prices for imported goods for a long time, but it was “built on something that was very fragile.” | 美国贸易代表戴琪周一在米尔肯研究所全球会议上接受采访时表示，美国消费者长期以来一直享受着进口商品的低价，但这种“奢侈”是“建立在非常脆弱的东西之上的”。 |
| And Americans are not just consumers, she added. They are also workers who have to compete in a global marketplace for talent where globalization “has really eroded opportunities and wages for your average American.” | 她补充说，美国人不仅仅是消费者。他们也是必须在全球人才市场竞争的工人，全球化“确实侵蚀了普通美国人的机会和工资”。 |
| “I think going forward in terms of globalization 2.0 we need to have those hard conversations,” Ms. Tai said. “A more resilient, a stronger, more sustainable future is one that is going to look different and feel different.” | “我认为，在全球化2.0方面，我们需要进行这些艰难的对话，”戴琪说。“一个更有弹性、更强大、更可持续的未来的样子将是不同的，在感受上也将是不同的。” |
| Ford Motor, which has grappled with pandemic supply chain issues, is working on making its own batteries — including in America. “In the medium and long term, securing raw materials, processing, precursor and refinement and setting up battery production here in the U.S. and around the world is a big work statement for us,” Jim Farley, the company’s chief executive, said on an earnings call last week. | 一直在努力解决大流行供应链问题的福特汽车正在研发、制造自己的电池——包括在美国本土制造。在该公司上周的财报电话会议中，首席执行官吉姆·法利在一份声明中表示：“从中长期来看，做好原材料、加工、前驱体和精炼保障，在美国和世界各地建立电池生产工厂，是我们的一项重要工作。” |
| Companies are also beginning to face pressure to price in the true cost of carbon emissions from shipping parts, which could prompt them to move factories closer to consumers. | 公司也开始面临将零件运输碳排放的真实成本纳入价格的压力，这可能促使他们将工厂搬到离消费者更近的地方。 |
| Scott N. Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, said economic and political risks along with carbon-cost calculations were encouraging companies to gradually shift their manufacturing closer to the United States. | 美国制造联盟主席斯科特·N·保罗表示，经济和政治风险以及碳排放成本计算正在鼓励公司逐渐将其生产转移到离美国更近的地方。 |
| “I only see that trend accelerating,” he said. | “我看到的这种趋势只增不减，”他说。 |
| Long-run population changes could also compound the effects of a slowdown or pullback in globalization, pushing up prices by making labor more expensive. By 2050, one in six people worldwide will be older than 65, according to United Nations estimates, up from one in 11 in 2019. | 长期的人口变化使劳动力更加昂贵从而推高价格，这也可能加剧全球化放缓或回落的影响。据联合国估计，到2050年，全球六分之一的人将超过65岁，高于2019年的十一分之一。 |
| That aging means that, after decades in which a newly global pool of labor made employees cheap and easy to find, recent world-spanning labor shortages could last. That could push up wages, and companies may pass elevated labor costs along to customers by raising prices. | 数十年来，全球劳动力资源库使员工变得廉价易得，而老龄化则意味着近期全球范围内出现的劳动力短缺可能会持续数十年。这可能会推高工资，公司可能会通过提高价格将高昂的劳动力成本转嫁给客户。 |
| “Demography and the reversal of globalization mean that a great deal of it is likely to be permanent — clearly not all,” Charles Goodhart, an emeritus professor at the London School of Economics, said of pandemic-era price and labor issues. Mr. Goodhart co-wrote a book in 2020 arguing that the world was on the cusp of a demographic reversal. | 伦敦经济学院名誉教授查尔斯·古德哈特谈到大流行时期的价格和劳动力问题时说：“人口结构和全球化的逆转意味着其中很大一部分可能是永久性的——显然不是全部。”古德哈特在2020年与他人合著了一本书，认为世界正处于人口逆转的风口浪尖。 |
| “There will be structural forces raising inflation for probably the next two to three decades,” he said. | “可能在未来两到三年内，结构性力量会提高通胀，”他说。 |
| Some disagree. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, pointed out that plenty of workers were available in parts of South Asia, Africa and Latin America. And inflation has been weak in Japan for decades, despite its much older population. | 有些人不同意。彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当·波森指出，南亚、非洲和拉丁美洲的部分地区有大量工人可被雇佣。几十年来，日本的通货膨胀一直很弱，尽管其人口结构更加老龄化。 |
| Nor would a decline in globalization necessarily add to inflation in the long run, he said. By slowing growth, it could lead to less demand and price increases. | 他说，从长远来看，全球化的衰退也不一定会增加通货膨胀。通过放缓增长，它可能导致需求减少和价格上涨。 |
| But the intertwined trajectory for globalization, goods prices and inflation on the whole will be one that economists watch closely. | 但总体而言，全球化、商品价格和通胀的交织轨迹将会受到经济学家的密切关注。 |
| “People used to say it’s the million-dollar question, but I guess these days it’s the billion- or trillion-dollar question,” said Carlos Viana de Carvalho, a former New York Fed economist who is now head of research at the Brazilian asset management firm Kapitalo Investimentos. It’s possible, but not definite, he said, that the world is moving into a new economic era marked by higher inflation amid the changes to global integration and intensifying climate concern. | “人们过去常说这是一个百万美元的问题，但我想现在是十亿或万亿美元的问题，”前纽约联储经济学家、现任巴西资产管理公司Kapitalo Investimentos研究主管卡洛斯·维亚纳·德卡瓦略说。他说，全球一体化正在变化，气候问题日益严重，在这种背景下，世界有可能正在进入一个以通胀上升为标志的新经济时代，但这并不一定发生。 |
| “These things are very hard to identify in real time,” he said. | “这些东西是很难在正发生时识别出来的，”他说。 |
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