独裁者之子小马科斯料将当选总统,菲律宾民主未来难料_OK阅读网
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独裁者之子小马科斯料将当选总统,菲律宾民主未来难料
After 36 years, a Marcos is again on the path to power.

来源:纽约时报    2022-05-10 05:52



        MANILA — Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the former Philippines dictator, appeared sure to win the country’s presidential election on Monday, with a commanding vote margin that heralded a remarkable revival for a family once forced into exile, but that also raised profound questions about the future of Southeast Asia’s oldest democracy.        马尼拉——与曾为菲律宾独裁者的父亲同名的小费迪南德·马科斯看来已经在周一的国家总统选举中稳操胜券,得票率很高,这预示着一个曾经被迫流亡的家族将高调回归,但也令人深深质疑东南亚资格最老的民主国家的未来。
        The Marcos family was driven from office in 1986 by the “People Power” uprising, with millions of Filipinos uniting to decry deadly abuses and rampant corruption that siphoned billions of dollars from the treasury into the family’s personal bankroll.        1986年,马科斯家族被“人民力量”起义赶下台,数以百万计的菲律宾人联合起来谴责极度滥用职权和猖獗的腐败行为,数十亿美元被从国库窃取,变成马科斯家族的个人财富。
        But five years later, the younger Mr. Marcos and his mother were back in the Philippines. He began working to rehabilitate his family’s name and chart his own rise to political influence, winning key leadership roles at the state level before entering national politics as a senator in 2010.        但五年后,小马科斯和母亲回到菲律宾。他开始努力恢复家族的名声,并为自己的政治影响力铺路,在2010年以参议员身份进入国家政坛之前,他在州一级赢得了关键的领导人职位。
        On Monday, those efforts paid off, with Mr. Marcos on a path to win the biggest margin of victory in a presidential race in the Philippines since Corazon Aquino was elected in the wake of the ouster of Mr. Marcos’s father.        周一,这些努力得到了回报,马科斯即将赢得菲律宾总统竞选,其优势是自科拉松·阿基诺在马科斯之父下台后当选以来最大的。
        Early Tuesday, preliminary returns with more than 90 percent of the vote counted showed Mr. Marcos with 28.8 million votes, more than double that of his closest rival, Leni Robredo, the vice president.        星期二早些时候已经统计了超过90%的选票,结果显示马科斯获得了2880万票,是最接近他的竞选者、副总统莱尼·罗布雷多的两倍多。
        Mr. Marcos, 64, won the support of millions of voters who have grown disillusioned with their country’s brand of democracy and its failure to address the basic needs of its citizens. Poverty is widespread, inequality has widened and corruption remains rampant.        上千万选民支持现年64岁的马科斯,他们对本国的民主制度及其未能解决公民基本需求这一现状感到失望。在菲律宾,贫困普遍存在,不平等还在加剧,腐败依然猖獗。
        His opponents fear that as president, Mr. Marcos will only deepen the culture of impunity enshrined by the departing leader, Rodrigo Duterte, who worked to aid a Marcos comeback during his years in power.        马科斯的反对者担心,作为总统,马科斯只会加深即将离任的领导人罗德里戈·杜特地奉行的那种有罪不罚的文化。杜特地执政期间曾帮助马科斯卷土重来。
        Mr. Marcos has said he would try to shield Mr. Duterte from international court proceedings. And many expect Mr. Marcos to try to dismantle investigations and prosecutions that remain against his family.        马科斯曾表示,他将努力保护杜特地不受国际法庭诉讼。许多人预计,马科斯会试图撤销对其家人的调查和起诉。
        Pollsters said the support for Mr. Marcos, who is widely known by his boyhood nickname, Bongbong, directly correlated with Mr. Duterte’s base. Mr. Marcos’s supporters see in him a glimmer of Mr. Duterte, whose strongman rule remains largely popular in the Philippines.        民意调查机构表示,马科斯的支持率与杜特地的支持者直接相关。马科斯因儿时的绰号“邦邦”而广为人知,支持者们在他身上看到了杜特地的一丝影子,后者的强人统治在菲律宾仍然广受欢迎。
        Many of them backed Mr. Marcos because Sara Duterte, Mr. Duterte’s daughter, ran for vice president on his ticket. She appeared set to clinch the vice presidency, with nearly 29 million votes, more than triple that of Senator Francis Pangilinan, who ranked No. 2 and ran in support of Ms. Robredo.        杜特地支持者中的许多人之所以支持马科斯,是因为杜特地的女儿萨拉·杜特地是马科斯的竞选搭档,竞选副总统之位。她预计将获胜,得票数接近2900万,是排名第二的参议员弗朗西斯·潘吉南的三倍多,后者是罗布雷多的竞选搭档。
        But by the time polls closed at 7 p.m., accounts of alarming irregularities had been reported across the country: malfunctioning voting machines, insufficient backup machines, complaints that voters had been left off registration rolls, and that their ballots had been tampered with.        但到晚上7点投票结束时,全国各地都报道了令人担忧的违规行为:投票机故障,备份机器不足,有人抱怨选民登记名单有遗漏以及选票被篡改。
        Still, Mr. Marcos’s lead was so strong early Tuesday that his victory appeared nearly inevitable. Official counting begins Tuesday and is expected to go for a few days.        不过,马科斯周二早间的领先优势非常大,以至于他的胜利似乎几乎是不可避免的。正式计票于周二开始,预计将持续数日。
        Early Tuesday, Ms. Robredo stopped short of conceding defeat but acknowledged a “feeling of real dismay among our ranks.”        周二早些时候,罗布雷多没有承认失败,但承认“我们的队伍中出现了真正的沮丧感”。
        “We have not failed,” she assured her supporters, speaking from her hometown in the Bicol Region. “We are just starting. An avenue has opened and it will not shut down. A movement was born and it will not die at the close of counting.”        “我们没有失败,”她在家乡比科尔地区向支持者保证。“我们才刚刚开始。一条大道已经敞开,它不会关闭。一场运动诞生了,它不会随着计票结束而消亡。”
        But a victory for Mr. Marcos is likely to lead to further erosion of democracy in the Philippines, where institutions have been obliterated or weakened under Mr. Duterte. His promise to shield Mr. Duterte from an investigation by the International Criminal Court for a violent drug war that has claimed thousands of lives has many fearing that impunity for the powerful will only deepen.        但马科斯的胜利很可能导致菲律宾的民主进一步遭到侵蚀,在杜特地领导下,该国的民主惯例已经被摧毁或削弱。马科斯承诺保护杜特地,不让他因残暴的毒品战争夺走数以千计生命而遭到国际刑事法院调查,很多人担心,有权势者逍遥法外的局面只会加剧。
        “Personally, I’m devastated,” said Sol Iglesias, an assistant professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman. “This is a dashing of the hopes that there will be a U-turn away from the backsliding toward authoritarian rule that was begun by President Duterte.”        “就我个人而言,我很震惊,”菲律宾大学迪里曼分校政治学助理教授索尔·伊格莱西亚斯说。“从杜特地总统开始,菲律宾倒退到独裁统治,人们希望逆转这一进程的希望破灭了。”
        Late Monday night, spontaneous celebrations erupted outside Mr. Marcos’s campaign headquarters, where huge crowds of Filipinos had gathered in peaceful protest against his father more than three decades ago. Supporters sang a martial law anthem, waved the Philippines flag and chanted: “Bongbong, Sara!”        周一深夜,马科斯的竞选总部外举行了自发的庆祝活动。30多年前,大批菲律宾人曾在这里和平集会,抗议他的父亲。支持者唱着戒严期间的赞歌,挥舞着菲律宾国旗,高喊:“邦邦,萨拉!”
        “This ends our 36-year suffering since 1986,” said Jean Diaz, a 66-year-old supporter. “I am beyond happy. This is what we’ve been waiting for.”        “这结束了我们自1986年以来36年的苦难,”66岁的支持者让·迪亚兹说。“我高兴极了。这就是我们一直在等待的。”
        In a speech to his supporters on Monday night, with the official vote counting ahead, Mr. Marcos urged patience.        周一晚上,正式计票开始之前,马科斯向支持者发表讲话,敦促他们保持耐心。
        “It’s not over yet,” he said. “Let us keep watch over our votes. And if I do get lucky, I am hoping for your unending help and trust.”        “一切还没有结束,”他说。“让我们继续关注我们的选票。如果我幸运的话,我希望能得到你们无尽的帮助与信任。”
        Mr. Marcos has repeatedly said he would not apologize for the legacy of his father, who died in exile in Hawaii in 1989, and he has campaigned for years to recast the Marcos dictatorship as an era of development.        马科斯曾多次表示,他不会为父亲留下的政治遗产道歉。马科斯的父亲1989年在夏威夷流亡期间去世,他多年来一直致力于重塑老马科斯的独裁统治的形象,将它描绘为一个发展的时代。
        But Mr. Marcos’s name remains tarnished among many Filipinos. Many of them see the family as a symbol of greed and excess, accused by the government of looting as much as $10 billion from the treasury. The “People Power” revolt was seen as a model for many other countries with fledgling democracy movements.        但在许多菲律宾人心目中,马科斯这个名字仍然臭名昭著。许多人认为这家人是贪婪和奢侈的象征,政府指控他们从国库掠夺了多达100亿美元。“人民力量”革命被视为许多其他民主运动羽翼未丰的国家的典范。
        “It’s extremely disappointing to see where we are at this stage in the game,” said Cleo Anne A. Calimbahin, an associate professor of political science at the De La Salle University-Manila.        马尼拉德拉萨列大学的政治学副教授克利奥·安妮卡利巴欣说,“我们目前的处境是极其令人失望的。”
        Mr. Marcos will face a range of challenges when he begins presiding over a divided country. He has campaigned on a platform of unity, promising Filipinos that he would “help them rise again.” But many of his policy proposals remain thin and he has shunned most of the news media and avoided nearly all debates.        马科斯开始在一个分裂的国家主政后将面临一系列挑战。他以团结为竞选纲领,向选民承诺,他将“为他们再次出人头地助上一臂之力”。不过,他的许多政策建议仍然让人难以信服,而且他回避了大多数新闻媒体,也躲开了几乎所有的辩论。
        On Ms. Robredo’s side, hundreds of thousands of people, many of them young, campaigned door to door for her, seeing in her a leader who could bring about change.        在罗布雷多一方,成千上万的选民挨家挨户地为她助选,其中很多是年轻人,在他们看来,她是一位能够带来变革的领导人。
        Ultimately, they struggled against a powerful political family that was adept at building alliances and avoiding any semblance of accountability.        最终,他们对抗的是一个强大的政治家族,擅长拉帮结派,规避任何形式的问责。
        After the Marcoses returned in 1991, they continued building their fief in the northern province of Ilocos Norte, the family’s stronghold. Imelda Marcos, Mr. Marcos’s 92-year-old mother, twice ran unsuccessfully for president.        马科斯家族1991年结束流亡返回菲律宾后,继续在北部的家族大本营北伊罗戈省建立自己的势力范围。马科斯92岁的母亲伊梅尔达·马科斯曾两次竞选总统,但均未成功。
        Mr. Marcos served as vice governor, governor and congressman in Ilocos Norte. In 2010, he entered the national political scene when he was elected senator. He ran for the vice presidency in 2016 and lost narrowly to Ms. Robredo by just over 260,000 votes.        马科斯曾担任北伊罗戈省副省长、省长和众议员。2010年,他当选为参议员,踏上国家政治舞台。他在2016年竞选副总统,以26万票出头的微弱劣势输给了罗布雷多。
        Mr. Marcos drew much of his support from the young, who say they enjoy watching his YouTube videos portraying him as a cool parent in game-show segments with his family. A survey has shown that 7 out of 10 Filipinos aged 18 to 24 want him to be president. The country’s school textbooks gloss over the atrocities of the Marcos era.        马科斯深受年轻人的欢迎,他们说,喜欢看他在YouTube上的视频——在与家人参加的游戏节目环节中,他看上去是一个很酷的家长。一项调查显示,在18岁至24岁的菲律宾人中,每10人就有7人希望他成为总统。该国的教科书掩盖了马科斯时代的暴行。
        “I think he can solve everything,” said Chereen Nicole Rivera, a 21-year-old student who was celebrating Mr. Marcos’s win. “The money stolen was not by him, but by his dad. He should not be judged by the sins of his dad.”        “我认为他能解决所有问题,”21岁的学生舍琳·尼科尔·里韦拉说,她正在庆祝马科斯的胜利。“偷钱的不是他,是他爸。他不应该因为父亲的罪过而受到刁难。”
        Critics fear that Mr. Marcos will press the courts to overturn the criminal convictions against himself and his mother, and the outstanding cases against his family. Mr. Marcos was sentenced to up to three years in prison in 1995 for tax-related issues, but his sentence was overturned on appeal two years later, even though his conviction remains on the books. In 2018, his mother was sentenced to up to 11 years in prison for creating private foundations to hide her unexplained wealth. She posted bail, and the Supreme Court is still reviewing her appeal.        批评人士担心,马科斯会向法院施压,推翻针对他自己和母亲的刑事定罪以及家人的未决案件。1995年,马科斯因税务相关问题被判处最高三年监禁,但两年后,他的判决在上诉中被推翻,尽管他的定罪仍然记录在案。2018年,他的母亲创建私人基金会来隐藏她无法解释的财富,因此被判处最高11年监禁。她交付了保释金,最高法院仍在复审她的上诉。
        Separately, the government is still demanding that the Marcoses pay an estate tax of at least $3.9 billion, which Mr. Marcos has dismissed as “fake news.”        另外,政府仍要求马科斯家族支付至少39亿美元的遗产税,马科斯斥之为“假新闻”。
        Mr. Duterte, an ally of the Marcoses, had paved the way for a full rehabilitation of the Marcos name. In 2016, he allowed for the father’s body to be moved to the Philippines’ equivalent of Arlington National Cemetery, despite protests. And it was not until Sara Duterte made the surprise announcement that she would run for vice president instead of president that Mr. Marcos gained his large lead in the polls.        杜特地是马科斯家族的盟友,为马科斯家族的东山再起铺平了道路。2016年,他不顾民众的抗议,允许马科斯家族将老马科斯的遗骸迁至菲律宾的国家公墓。而且直到萨拉·杜特地出人意料地宣布她将竞选副总统而非总统,马科斯才在民调中大幅领先。
        The alliance of the Marcoses and the Dutertes “has effectively formed a dynasty cartel,” said Aries Arugay, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman.        菲律宾大学迪利曼校区的政治学教授阿里斯·阿鲁盖说,马科斯家族和杜特地家族的联盟“有效地形成了一个王朝卡特尔”。
        “The Philippines is heading more and more toward an electoral autocracy,” he said, a system that could elect “another Duterte, another Marcos for decades and decades to come.”        “菲律宾正越来越多地走向选举独裁,”他说,这种制度可能会在未来几十年选出“另一个杜特地,另一个马科斯”。
                
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