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| BEIJING — Last year, the Grand Aniva, a Russian tanker with four spherical tanks for holding ultracold liquefied natural gas, sailed back and forth between a gas field in eastern Russia and depots in Japan and Taiwan. But two days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the ship switched routes, sailing to China instead. | 北京——俄罗斯液化气轮“大阿尼瓦号”有四个用于储存超冷液化天然气的球形罐，这艘轮船去年曾往返于俄罗斯东部一个天然气田与日本和台湾的贮藏库之间。但在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰两天后，“大阿尼瓦号”改变了航线，不再驶往日本和台湾，而是驶向中国。 |
| The voyages of the tanker, which is as long as three football fields, underlined that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia can still find buyers in Asia for his country’s fossil fuel exports despite Western sanctions. He needs to look for buyers as governments exact more pressure on his country to try to stop its war in Ukraine, including an expected move in the next several days by the European Union to gradually halt imports of Russian oil. | 这艘轮船的长度相当于三个足球场，它航线的改变表明，尽管受到西方制裁，俄罗斯总统普京仍能在亚洲为化石燃料的出口找到买家。普京需要寻找买家，因为西方各国政府为了试图停止俄乌战争正对俄罗斯施加更大的压力，包括欧盟预计将在未来几天宣布，将逐渐停止从俄罗斯进口石油。 |
| Mr. Putin called on April 14 for his country “to redirect our exports gradually to the rapidly growing markets of the South and the East.” Two obvious destinations are China, the world’s largest energy market, and India, the world’s third largest. (The United States is No. 2 in energy use.) | 普京已在4月14日要求他的国家“逐渐将我们的出口转向南半球和东半球经济快速增长的市场”。两个明显的目的地是世界最大的能源市场中国和世界第三大能源市场印度。（美国的能源消耗在全球排名第二。） |
| But any attempt to shift Russia’s energy exports to Asia from Europe would face major obstacles. Russia would need to offer steep discounts to make its oil and coal exports worth the risk and cost to buyers, and would need to start the yearslong task of building more ports and pipelines for natural gas exports. | 但是，任何将俄罗斯的能源出口从欧洲转向亚洲的尝试都将遇到大的障碍。为了使俄罗斯的石油和煤炭出口有让买家认为值得承受的风险和成本，俄罗斯需要提供巨大折扣，还需要开始花费数年为天然气出口建设更多的港口和输送管线。 |
| Redirecting Russian natural gas to Asia from Europe would require building extremely long pipelines or specialized ports like the one on Russia’s Sakhalin Island from which the Grand Aniva sails. Such ports are able to supercool natural gas so that it condenses into a liquid, which can then be sent by ship. | 将俄罗斯的天然气出口从欧洲转向亚洲需要建设特别长的输送管线以及专门的港口，比如从俄罗斯库页岛出发的“大阿尼瓦号”使用的那种。这种港口有将天然气超冷化的能力，让气体凝聚为可用轮船运送的液体。 |
| Sending oil to Asia would also require transportation by ship. But because of Western financial sanctions over the war in Ukraine, insurers are refusing to cover tankers with Russian cargoes. Banks are refusing to lend money for the time that the oil is in transit. So oil companies in countries like India have demanded very steep discounts on the price to cover the extra cost and risks. | 将石油运往亚洲还需要船舶。但由于西方国家因乌克兰战争正在对俄罗斯进行金融制裁，保险公司拒绝为俄罗斯油轮承保，银行拒绝提供石油在运输期间需要的贷款。因此，印度等国的石油公司要求俄罗斯大幅降价，以弥补购买其石油的额外成本和风险。 |
| Exports of coal, which can be loaded on trucks or trains to China, face the fewest logistical obstacles. But Russia’s coal exports are worth only a tenth as much as its oil exports and a quarter as much as its natural gas exports, data from Russia’s Federal Customs Service shows. And Western sanctions on using dollars for transactions with Russia are dampening Chinese demand for Russian coal. | 俄罗斯出口煤炭面临的物流障碍最少，可用卡车或火车运往中国。但据俄罗斯联邦海关总署的数据，俄罗斯的煤炭出口额仅为石油出口额的十分之一、天然气出口额的四分之一。西方对使用美元与俄罗斯做交易的制裁也减弱了中国对俄罗斯煤炭的胃口。 |
| “Even the private Chinese coal traders these days don’t want to touch Russian coal, because of the fear of Western sanctions,” said Zhou Xizhou, a longtime specialist in Chinese energy who is now at S&P Global. | “由于担心西方制裁，就连中国民营的煤炭交易商，这些日子里，也不想碰俄罗斯煤炭，”长期研究中国能源的专家、现在标普全球工作的周希舟说。 |
| Despite the obstacles, global energy leaders are betting that Russia can find a way to export at least the oil and the coal, in large part because global demand remains high. The world has been short of energy since autumn, when China nearly ran out of coal and suffered widespread electricity blackouts. | 尽管有这些障碍，但全球能源领导者确信无疑的是，俄罗斯至少能找到出口石油和煤炭的办法，这在很大程度上是因为全球需求仍然很高。自去年秋季以来，世界一直处于能源短缺状态，中国的煤炭曾在去年秋季几乎耗尽，遭遇大范围停电。 |
| Prices have risen sharply since last year for natural gas and oil as well as coal. Preventing any Russian energy from reaching world markets could drive them even higher. | 天然气、石油和煤炭的价格已自去年以来大幅上升。阻止所有的俄罗斯能源进入世界市场可能会进一步推高化石燃料的价格。 |
| “This is actually potentially a more significant energy crisis than the 1970s — that was just oil, it was simpler,” said Daniel Yergin, the energy historian and author of books like “The Prize” and “The New Map.” | “这次实际上有可能成为比上世纪70年代更严重的能源危机，那次只是石油危机，情况更简单，”能源历史学家丹尼尔·耶金说，他是《石油世纪》(The Price)和《新地图》(The New Map)等书的作者。 |
| Some energy industry leaders are calling for policies that do not block Russian energy exports entirely. The goal instead should be to make it very hard for Russia to export, they say, so that it does so only at very low prices. | 一些能源行业领导者正在呼吁出台不完全阻止俄罗斯能源出口的政策。他们说，目标应该是让俄罗斯很难出口能源，因此该国只能以非常低的价格出口。 |
| “The main issue is not to reduce or nullify Russian exports to Europe, but to reduce the Russian oil and gas revenues — they are not the same thing,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency in Paris, said in a telephone interview. | “主要问题不是减少或取消俄罗斯对欧洲的出口，而是减少俄罗斯出口石油和天然气的收入，两者不是一回事，”总部在巴黎的国际能源署执行主任法提赫·比罗尔在电话采访中说。 |
| The expectation is that Mr. Putin will keep the oil and coal moving by holding, in effect, the world’s biggest sale. | 业界的期待是，普京将通过进行实为世界最大的促销来推动俄罗斯石油和煤炭的出口。 |
| Russia needs every dollar of export revenue it can get right now. It is lurching toward default on its foreign debt. It has lost much of its foreign investment. And Western governments have frozen half of its central bank’s foreign reserves. | 俄罗斯现在需要它能获得的每一美元出口收入。俄罗斯的外债正一步步走向违约，大部分外国投资已经撤离该国。西方国家政府已冻结了俄罗斯中央银行一半的外汇储备。 |
| Russia currently exports nearly five million barrels per day of crude oil and another three million barrels per day of diesel, gasoline and other refined products. China and India have extensive refinery industries and are typically interested in the crude oil, Mr. Birol said. | 俄罗斯目前每天出口近500万桶原油，此外每天还出口300万桶柴油、汽油和其他精炼产品。中国和印度的炼油行业很发达，两国通常只对原油感兴趣，比罗尔说。 |
| Natural gas is harder for Russia to export. According to the International Energy Agency, Russia has the capacity to liquefy and load onto ships only about a tenth of its natural gas exports. Most of the shipments that are liquefied have already been going to East Asia anyway, with a lot leaving from the southern tip of Sakhalin Island, near Japan. | 对俄罗斯来说，天然气的出口难度更大。据国际能源署的数据，俄罗斯将天然气液化装船出口的能力，仅占其天然气出口的十分之一。而且，大部分液化气已经运往东亚，很多液化气轮从靠近日本的库页岛南端出发。 |
| According to Marine Traffic, an Athens-based ship tracking service that monitors ships’ locations, the Grand Aniva switched from supplying Japan and Taiwan last year to supplying China in the two months since the Russian invasion. | 据总部位于雅典、提供船舶位置追踪服务的海上交通网，在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的两个月里，“大阿尼瓦号”已从去年供应日本和台湾转为供应中国大陆。 |
| The Grand Aniva is one of the few tankers still visiting Russian ports: It is owned by Sovcomflot, a state-owned Russian shipping company that is already the target of Western sanctions. | “大阿尼瓦号”是仍在俄罗斯港口停靠的为数不多的液化气轮之一，它为国有的俄罗斯现代商船公司所有，该公司已成为西方制裁的目标。 |
| On its most recent voyage in mid-April, the Grand Aniva went from Sakhalin Island to an L.N.G. unloading port in Beihai, on China’s southern coast. Sinopec, a state-owned Chinese refining giant, built the port and then transferred it three years ago to PipeChina, a separate state-owned enterprise. Sinopec, PipeChina and Sovcomflot did not respond to requests for comment. | 在4月中旬的最近一次航行中，“大阿尼瓦”号从库页岛出发，驶往位于中国南部海岸的北海液化天然气接收站。这个接收站是中国国有炼油巨头中石化所建，在三年前转让给了另一家国有企业国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司。该公司和中石化、俄罗斯现代商船公司都没有回复记者的置评请求。 |
| Geopolitics help make possible the continued export of Russian energy. China has avoided condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has a history of buying oil from Iran and Venezuela despite Western sanctions on those countries. | 地缘政治让俄罗斯继续出口能源成为可能。中国一直避免谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，而且有从伊朗和委内瑞拉购买石油的历史，尽管西方对这两个国家实施了制裁。 |
| “The Chinese have found workarounds for Iranian oil, for Venezuelan oil,” said Michal Meidan, the director of gas research and China energy at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “They will find workarounds for Russian oil.” | “中国人为伊朗石油和委内瑞拉石油找到了变通办法，”牛津能源研究所的天然气研究和中国能源主管米哈尔·梅丹说。“他们将为俄罗斯石油找到变通办法。” |
| Russia is already increasing natural gas shipments to China through a recently completed Siberian pipeline. But because Russia’s Siberian gas fields are not linked by pipelines to Russian gas fields supplying Europe, there are severe limits on Russia’s ability to shift gas sales to China. | 俄罗斯已经通过最近完工的西伯利亚管线增加了对中国的天然气输送。但由于俄罗斯的西伯利亚天然气田与俄罗斯供应欧洲的天然气田没有管线连接，俄罗斯将天然气转销中国的能力受到严重限制。 |
| Still, trade between Russia and China, much of it Russian energy exports, jumped nearly 30 percent in the first three months of this year compared with a year earlier. That increase “fully demonstrates the great resilience and internal dynamism of cooperation between the two countries,” Le Yucheng, a Chinese deputy foreign minister, said in a statement last month. “No matter how the international situation changes, China will, as always, strengthen strategic coordination with Russia.” | 尽管如此，俄中贸易已在今年前三个月比去年同期增长了近30%，主要是俄罗斯的能源出口。这种增长“充分显示出两国合作的巨大韧性和内生动力”，中国外交部副部长乐玉成上个月说。“不论国际风云如何变幻，中方将一如既往同俄方加强战略协作。” |
| Russia’s market position might improve in the autumn. Much of Russia’s oil is very heavy, producing extra diesel when refined. Russia exported more than 10 times as much diesel as gasoline last year, data from Russia’s Federal Customs Service shows. | 俄罗斯的市场地位可能会在今秋有所改善。俄罗斯的大部分石油都很重，精炼后会产生更多柴油。俄罗斯联邦海关总署的数据显示，俄罗斯去年的柴油出口是汽油出口的十倍以上。 |
| The world’s main diesel market is China, with nearly twice as many heavy-duty trucks in operation as the United States. Coronavirus lockdowns have paralyzed much of China’s fleet in recent days, especially in and around Shanghai. | 世界上主要的柴油市场在中国，中国运营的重型货车几乎是美国的两倍。遏制新冠病毒的封控措施已导致中国的大部分货运瘫痪，尤其是在上海及其周边地区。 |
| Diesel demand in China could completely reverse by autumn. Beijing is turning to its favorite tactic in previous economic slowdowns: enormous investment in the construction of more rail lines, roads, bridges and other infrastructure. | 到今年秋季时，中国的柴油需求可能会完全逆转。中国政府正在转向其在以前经济放缓时最喜欢用的办法：对更多的铁路、公路、桥梁和其他基础设施建设进行巨额投资。 |
| All of that construction will require huge fleets of diesel-guzzling trucks, excavators, pile drivers, bulldozers and other equipment. | 所有这些建设都将需要庞大的柴油车队、挖掘机、打桩机、推土机和其他设备。 |
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