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专家预测:中国经济将在近期回升
China's economic rebound seen despite US tightening

来源:中国日报    2022-05-06 17:37



        The Chinese economy is expected to maintain its resilience and may rebound in the coming months with stronger policy support and better epidemic containment, bucking the negative impact of a tightening in US monetary policy, analysts said on Thursday.分析人士5月5日表示,在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下,预计中国经济将保持其韧性,并可能在未来几个月内实现回升,抵御美国货币政策紧缩带来的消极影响。
        Apart from raising its target federal funds rate to a range between 0.75 percent and 1 percent, the Fed said it could further impose half-percentage point hikes in each of the next two months and will start balance sheet reduction from June.除了将美国联邦基金利率目标上调至0.75%至1%之间,美联储还表示,未来两个月可能会进一步上调半个百分点,并将从6月开始缩减资产负债表。
        For China, the country's vast domestic economy, relatively sound fundamentals, large foreign exchange reserves and a steady trade surplus provide a buffer against the spillover effects of US tightening, Huang said.黄益平称,对中国来说,中国庞大的国内经济、相对稳健的基本面、庞大的外汇储备和稳定的贸易顺差为美国紧缩政策的溢出效应提供了缓冲。
        "If the economy continuously weakens, the impact of US tightening will be amplified with a stronger tendency of investors to trim holdings in Chinese financial assets. However, if China's economy maintains steady growth and offers decent investment returns, the risk of capital outflows will ease," he said.他称:“如果经济持续疲软,美国紧缩政策的影响将进一步扩大,投资者将更倾向于减少对中国金融资产的持有。然而,如果中国经济保持稳定增长并提供可观的投资回报,资本外流的风险将得到缓解。”
        Different regulators have since pledged more measures to support the economy, with the central bank vowing on Wednesday it would formulate new policy tools at an early date to stabilize economic growth, employment and price levels.此后,各监管机构承诺采取更多措施支持经济,人民银行5月4日承诺将在近期制定新的政策工具,以稳定经济增长、就业和价格水平。
        China's service activity fell in April at the sharpest rate since the initial COVID lockdowns in early 2020, a private survey released by the Caixin media group said on Thursday.财新传媒集团5月5日发布的一项调查显示,中国4月份的服务业经营活动出现了自2020年初首次疫情封控以来最大幅度的下降。
        Huang said it is sensible for fiscal policy to beef up support by directly bolstering domestic demand, adding that reducing interest rates could help improve corporate cash flows but could intensify the pressure of stabilizing cross-border capital flows.黄益平称,财政政策通过直接提振国内需求来加强支持是明智之举。他补充说,降低利率可能有助于改善企业现金流,但可能会加大稳定跨境资本流的压力。
        Upon better containment of COVID-19 and proactive policy support, the Chinese economy is poised to stage a strong rebound after hitting a nadir in April, said Yin Yue, a macroeconomic analyst at Hongta Securities.红塔证券宏观经济分析师殷悦(音译)表示,在疫情得到有效控制以及国内政策积极主动发力之下,中国经济在4月份触底后将迎来强劲回升。
        Yet experts caution that uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 situation and the external environment could still complicate China's economic recovery and weigh on the yuan.然而,专家警告称,围绕新冠疫情和外部环境的不确定性仍可能使中国经济复苏复杂化,并对人民币造成压力。
        The onshore yuan dropped to 6.62 against the dollar on Thursday afternoon, having weakened by nearly 4 percent since the beginning of the year.5月5日下午,在岸人民币兑美元汇率跌至6.62,自年初以来已贬值近4%。
        
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