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| Now, it's warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve's quest to knock down stubbornly high inflation.但现在，德意志银行警告称，美联储寻求遏制居高不下的通胀，将导致经济进一步下滑。 |
| The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%. That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy.德意志银行认为，问题在于，尽管通胀可能正在见顶，但要回到美联储2%的通胀目标还需要“很长一段时间”。这表明，美联储将大幅加息，从而损害经济。 |
| Consumer prices spiked by 8.5% in March, the fastest pace in 40 years. The jobs market remains on fire, with Moody's Analytics projecting that the unemployment rate will soon fall to the lowest level since the early 1950s.美国3月份消费者价格指数飙升了8.5%，为40年来最高。就业市场依然强劲，穆迪分析预测失业率将很快降至20世纪50年代初以来的最低水平。 |
| History shows the Fed has "never been able to correct" even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment "without pushing the economy into a significant recession," Deutsche Bank said.德意志银行表示，历史表明，美联储“从未能够在不将经济推入严重衰退的情况下纠正”即使是稍微过高的通胀和就业率。 |
| The good news is that Deutsche Bank sees the economy rebounding by mid-2024 as the Fed reverses course in its inflation fight.好消息是，德意志银行认为，随着美联储逆转抗击通胀的进程，经济将在2024年年中反弹。 |
| Goldman Sachs concedes it will be "very challenging" to bring down high inflation and wage growth, but stresses that a recession is "not inevitable."高盛承认，抑制高通胀和工资增长将“非常具有挑战性”，但强调衰退“并非不可避免”。 |
| Deutsche Bank said the most important factor behind its more negative view is the likelihood that inflation will remain "persistently elevated for longer than generally anticipated."德意志银行表示，其观点更为悲观的主要原因是，通胀持续升高的时间可能会比预期更长。 |
| If inflation does stay elevated, the Fed will be forced to consider more dramatic interest rate hikes. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point in March and Chairman Jerome Powell conceded last week that a half-point hike is "on the table" at next week's meeting.如果通胀率持续升高，美联储将被迫考虑更大幅度加息。美联储在3月份将利率上调了0.25个百分点，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周承认，在下周的会议上，加息0.5个百分点是“可能的”。 |
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