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| WASHINGTON — U.S. officials are anxiously watching the French presidential election, aware that the outcome of the vote on Sunday could scramble President Biden’s relations with Europe and reveal dangerous fissures in Western democracy. | 华盛顿——美国官员正忧心忡忡地关注着法国总统大选，他们意识到，周日的投票结果可能会扰乱拜登总统与欧洲的关系，并且暴露出西方民主的危险裂痕。 |
| President Emmanuel Macron of France has been a crucial partner as Mr. Biden has rebuilt relations with Europe, promoted democracy and forged a coalition in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Mr. Macron is in a tight contest with Marine Le Pen, a far-right challenger. | 在拜登重建与欧洲的关系、推动民主、并结成联盟以应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的过程中，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙一直是关键的合作伙伴。但马克龙与极右翼挑战者玛丽娜·勒庞之间的竞争非常激烈。 |
| Ms. Le Pen is a populist agitator who, in the style of former President Donald J. Trump, scorns European Union “globalists,” criticizes NATO and views President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as an ally. | 勒庞是一名民粹主义煽动者，她采用前美国总统特朗普的风格，蔑视欧盟的“全球主义者”，批评北约，并将俄罗斯总统普京视为盟友。 |
| Her victory could complicate Mr. Biden’s effort to isolate Russia and aid Ukraine. But the very real prospect of a nationalist leading France is also a reminder that the recent period of U.S.-European solidarity on political and security issues like Russia and democracy may be fragile. Poland and Hungary, both NATO members, have taken authoritarian turns. And Germany’s surprisingly strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already drawing domestic criticism. | 她的胜利可能会加剧拜登孤立俄罗斯、援助乌克兰的难度。但一个民族主义者领导法国的现实前景也提醒人们，最近一段时间，美国和欧洲在俄罗斯与民主等政治和安全问题上的团结可能是脆弱的。同为北约成员国的波兰和匈牙利都曾实行过独裁统治。德国对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰出人意料的强硬回应已经在国内招致批评。 |
| “To have a right-wing government come to power in France would be a political earthquake,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a professor at Georgetown who was the Europe director of the National Security Council during the Obama administration. “It would send a troubling signal about the overall political health of the Western world.” | “右翼政府在法国掌权将是一场政治地震，”乔治敦大学教授查尔斯·库普坎说。他曾在奥巴马政府时期担任国家安全委员会欧洲事务主任。“这对西方世界的整体政治健康状况是一个令人不安的信号。” |
| He added: “This is a moment of quite remarkable European unity and resolve. But Le Pen’s election would certainly raise profound questions about the European project.” | “这是一个相当显著的展现欧洲团结与决心的时刻。但勒庞的当选肯定会引起对欧洲一体化的深刻质疑，”他还说。 |
| Mr. Macron was unable to command more than a small plurality of support against several opponents in the first round of voting on April 10. Ms. Le Pen, who finished second, is his opponent in the runoff election on Sunday. Polls show Mr. Macron with a clear lead, but analysts say a Le Pen victory is completely plausible. | 在4月10日的第一轮投票中，马克龙对几名对手只有微弱的相对多数优势。在周日的决选中，排名第二的勒庞是他的对手。民调显示马克龙明显领先，但分析人士称勒庞获胜是完全有可能的。 |
| An immigration hard-liner and longtime leader of France’s populist right, Ms. Le Pen has campaigned mainly on domestic issues, including the rising cost of living. But her foreign policy views have unsettled U.S. officials. Last week, she renewed vows to scale back France’s leadership role in NATO and to pursue “a strategic rapprochement” with Russia after the war with Ukraine has concluded. Ms. Le Pen also expressed concern that sending arms to Ukraine risked drawing other nations into the war. | 作为移民问题上的强硬派和一直以来的法国民粹主义右翼领袖，勒庞的竞选活动主要围绕国内问题展开，包括生活成本的不断上涨。但她的外交政策观点令美国官员感到不安。上个星期，她再次誓言缩减法国在北约的领导作用，并在乌克兰战争结束后寻求与俄罗斯的“战略和解”。勒庞还表示担心，向乌克兰输送武器可能会把其他国家拖入战争。 |
| In a debate on Wednesday, Mr. Macron reminded voters that Ms. Le Pen’s party had taken a loan from a Russian bank. “You depend on Mr. Putin,” he told her. | 在周三的辩论中，马克龙提醒选民，勒庞的政党从一家俄罗斯银行获得了贷款。“你是依赖普京的，”他对她说。 |
| Ms. Le Pen insisted she was “an absolutely and totally free woman” and said she sought foreign cash after French banks refused to lend to her. She also sought to deflect charges that she was sympathetic to Russia’s war aims, declaring her “absolute solidarity” with the Ukrainian people. | 勒庞坚称自己是“一个绝对自由、完全自由的女人”，并表示在法国银行拒绝向她贷款后，她开始寻求外国资金。她还试图回避关于她同情俄罗斯战争目的的指控，宣布她“绝对支持”乌克兰人民。 |
| Ms. Le Pen has also pledged to curtail the influence of the European Union, which the Biden administration sees as a vital counterweight to Russia and China. | 勒庞还承诺削弱欧盟的影响力，拜登政府将欧盟视为制衡俄罗斯和中国的重要力量。 |
| One senior U.S. official noted that France has a recent history of right-wing candidates striking fear into the political establishment before falling short. That was the case five years ago, when Mr. Macron defeated Ms. Le Pen in a runoff. | 一名美国高级官员指出，法国近年来已经有过右翼候选人险些当选引起建制势力恐慌的事。五年前就是这种情况，当时马克龙在决选中击败了勒庞。 |
| But recent elections in the West have been prone to upsets, and analysts warned against complacency in Washington, especially given the stakes for the United States. | 但最近西方的选举很容易引发不安，分析人士警告华盛顿不要掉以轻心，尤其是考虑到美国的利害关系。 |
| One sign of how much the Biden administration values its partnership with Mr. Macron was the minor sense of crisis after France withdrew its ambassador to Washington in September after the disclosure of a new initiative between the United States and Britain to supply Australia with nuclear submarines. | 在美国和英国之间的一项向澳大利亚供应核潜艇的新倡议被披露后，法国于9月召回了驻华盛顿大使，双方关系有了些许危机感，而这一点也体现了拜登政府对与法国的合作关系的看重。 |
| Mr. Macron’s government blamed the Biden administration for the loss of a lucrative submarine contract it had with Australia and was especially angry to learn about the arrangement through a leak to the news media. Biden officials expressed profuse support for France in a flurry of meetings and phone calls, and Mr. Biden called the episode clumsy. France was an “extremely, extremely valued” U.S. partner, he said. | 马克龙政府指责拜登政府导致其失去了与澳大利亚签订的利润丰厚的潜艇合同，并且令其感到尤为愤怒的是，法国是在新闻媒体曝光后才获悉此事。拜登官员在一系列会议和电话中表达了对法国的大力支持，拜登称这一事件的处理方式十分笨拙。他说，法国是一个“极其、极其宝贵”的美国伙伴。 |
| If Ms. Le Pen were to win, Mr. Biden’s national security team would be forced to reassess that relationship. | 如果勒庞获胜，拜登的国家安全团队将被迫重新评估这种关系。 |
| The most pressing question would be the status of economic sanctions against Russia, in which the European Union plays a crucial role. During the debate on Wednesday, Ms. Le Pen said she supported sanctions against Russia’s financial system and oligarchs but opposed banning imports of Russian oil and gas, saying that the French people should not have to suffer. | 最紧迫的问题将是对俄罗斯的经济制裁状况，而欧盟在其中发挥着至关重要的作用。在周三的辩论中，勒庞表示，她支持对俄罗斯金融体系和寡头实施制裁，但反对禁止进口俄罗斯石油和天然气，并表示法国人民不应该受苦。 |
| “I don’t imagine Marine Le Pen going to see Vladimir Putin two weeks after getting elected and talking about a great reset in relations,” said Martin Quencez, the deputy director of the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund. | 德国马歇尔基金会巴黎办事处副主任马丁·昆塞斯说：“我不认为玛丽娜·勒庞会在赢得选举的两周后去见普京，跟他探讨对双方关系进行一次重大的重塑。” |
| “Rather, it would be more like Le Pen, as president, making it more difficult for the E.U. and the U.S. to agree on a new posture — a new package of sanctions, and to agree within NATO on what we need to do on the eastern flank,” he added. | “相反，更有可能是勒庞作为总统，让欧盟更难和美国就新的姿态——新的一揽子制裁措施，并在北约内部就我们需要在东面采取的行动——达成一致，”他补充说。 |
| For the Biden team, the fallout from a Le Pen victory would extend well beyond policies toward Russia and deal a blow to his project of bolstering democracy against authoritarianism worldwide, said Daniel Baer, the acting director of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. | 卡内基国际和平基金会欧洲项目代理主任丹尼尔·贝尔说，对于拜登团队来说，勒庞获胜的影响将远不止于对俄政策，并且会对他在全球范围内支持民主反对威权主义的计划造成打击。 |
| “Biden sees this moment as a contest between democracy and autocracy,” he said. “Over the longer term, certainly having one of the world’s most revered, advanced democracies elect an illiberal person would be a setback for the cause of democracy writ large.” | “拜登将这一刻视为民主与专制之间的较量，”他说。“从长远来看，如果让世界上最受尊敬、最先进的民主国家之一选出一个反自由主义者，无疑将是民主事业的一大倒退。” |
| Mr. Kupchan noted that the vigorous European response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had papered over simmering concerns in Washington about autocracy in countries like Poland and Hungary, whose right-wing prime minister, Viktor Orban, was comfortably re-elected last month. | 库普尚注意到，欧洲对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的强烈反应遮掩了华盛顿对波兰和匈牙利等专制国家的担忧，上个月，匈牙利右翼总理欧尔班·维克托轻松连任。 |
| “Everything we were worried about before Feb. 24,” the date of the Russian invasion, “is still lurking beneath the surface,” Mr. Kupchan said. “And if Le Pen did win, it would mean that illiberalism — the politics of racism, of protectionism, would be on the surface.” | “我们在2月24日之前担心的一切，仍然潜伏在表面之下，”库普坎说。“如果勒庞真的赢了，那将意味着反自由主义——种族主义、保护主义政治将浮出水面。” |
| He added: “In some ways, all the domestic trials and tribulations are in suspended animation. But they’re still with us. And the French election shines a bright light on that.” | 他还说：“从某些方面看，国内的所有考验和忧患都进入了人工休眠的状态。但我们仍然能感受到它们。而法国的选举则让这一点更加清晰了。” |
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