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| BANGKOK — As the bonds of traditional alliances fray across the globe, the Royal Thai Army, the United States’ oldest treaty partner in Asia, has cast a wide net. |
| 曼谷——随着传统联盟的纽带在全球范围内遭到破坏，美国在亚洲历史最悠久的缔约伙伴——泰国皇家军队已撒下一张大网。 |
| This year, with the world reeling from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Thai soldiers hosted American troops for Cobra Gold, annual military exercises that are one of the largest shows of force in the Asia Pacific. A few months before, they participated in Shared Destiny, peacekeeping drills run by the People’s Liberation Army of China. And in 2020, the Thais hedged their bets further, signing an agreement for their cadets to receive training at a defense academy in Moscow. |
| 今年，就在世界因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而晕头转向之际，泰国士兵接待了美国军队参加“金色眼镜蛇”军事演习，这是亚太地区最大的武力展示活动之一。几个月前，他们参加了中国人民解放军举办的“共同命运”维和演习。2020年，泰国人进一步对冲他们的赌注，签署了一项协议，让他们的军校学员前往莫斯科的一所国防学院接受培训。 |
| The geopolitical landscape following the Ukraine invasion has often been likened to that of a new Cold War. While the main antagonists may be the same — the United States, Russia and, increasingly, China — the roles played by much of the rest of the world have changed, reshaping a global order that held for more than three-quarters of a century. |
| 乌克兰遭到入侵后的地缘政治格局经常被比作新冷战。虽然主要的对手可能没变——美国、俄罗斯，以及中国也越来越多地参与其中，但世界其他大部分地区所扮演的角色已经发生了变化，重塑着一个已持续了逾四分之三个世纪的全球秩序。 |
| Governments representing more than half of humanity have refused to take a side, avoiding the binary accounting of us-versus-them that characterized most of the post-World War II era. In a United Nations General Assembly vote this month to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council, dozens of countries abstained, including Thailand, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico and Singapore. (The resolution succeeded anyway.) |
| 代表了全世界一半以上人口的政府拒绝选边站队，以避免像“二战”后大部分时期的“我们”与“他们”的二元分类。在联合国大会本月暂停俄罗斯人权理事会成员资格的投票中，包括泰国、巴西、南非、墨西哥和新加坡在内的数十个国家投了弃权票。（决议最后还是通过了。） |
| Once proxy battlegrounds for superpowers, swaths of Africa, Asia and Latin America are staking their independence. The return of a bloc of nonaligned nations harks back to a period in which leaders of the post-colonial movement resisted having their destinies shaped by imperialism. It also points to the confidence of smaller countries, no longer dependent on a single ideological or economic patron, to go their own way. |
| 非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲曾经是超级大国的代理战场，这三大洲的许多国家现在纷纷亮出自己的独立性。不结盟国家集团的回归，让人回想起后殖民运动领导人拒绝让帝国主义主宰命运的时期。它还表明，不再依赖于单一意识形态或经济赞助国的小国有信心走自己的路。 |
| “Without a doubt, the countries of Southeast Asia don’t want to be pulled into a new Cold War or be forced to take sides in any great power competition,” said Zachary Abuza, a security specialist at the National War College in Washington. “As they say in Southeast Asia, when the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.” |
| “毫无疑问，东南亚国家不想卷入新冷战，或者被迫在任何大国竞争中选边站队，”华盛顿国家战争学院的安全专家扎卡里·阿布扎说。“正如他们在东南亚的一句谚语，当大象打架时，遭殃的是草。” |
| Having to align themselves with one power or another, Mr. Abuza added, left many nations around the world “desperately poor and underdeveloped at the end of the Cold War.” |
| 阿布扎还说，被迫与其中一个大国结盟使得世界上许多国家“在冷战结束时极度贫穷和不发达”。 |
| As a result, even the United States, the Cold War’s victor, cannot count on the support of some of its traditional partners in vocally condemning Russia for its attack on a sovereign, democratic nation. The NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011 and the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 have only heightened mistrust of the West. Both military actions left countries in those regions struggling with the political fallout for years after. |
| 因此，即使是冷战的胜利者美国，也不能指望得到一些传统伙伴的支持，指望它们大声谴责俄罗斯对一个主权民主国家的袭击。2011年北约领导的利比亚干预和2003年美国入侵伊拉克加剧了对西方的不信任。这两次军事行动都使这些地区的国家多年后还在后续的政治影响中挣扎。 |
| “The crux of the matter is that African countries feel infantilized and neglected by Western countries, which are also accused of not living up to their soaring moral rhetoric on sovereignty and territorial sanctity,” said Ebenezer Obadare, senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. |
| “问题的症结在于，非洲国家觉得自己被西方国家当小朋友对待，遭到了它们的忽视，还指责西方国家没有履行他们高呼的关于主权和领土神圣性的道德言论，”美国外交关系委员会的非洲研究高级研究员埃伯纳泽·奥巴达尔说道。 |
| Indonesia, a sprawling democracy once ruled by a dictator favored by the United States for his anti-communist stance, has said that it will welcome President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia when the country hosts the Group of 20 meetings this year. It, too, abstained in the U.N. vote to remove Russia from the Human Rights Council. |
| 幅员辽阔的民主国家印度尼西亚——该国曾经的一位统治者因反共立场而受到美国青睐——曾表示，当该国今年主办20国集团会议时，将欢迎俄罗斯总统普京出席。印度尼西亚也在将俄罗斯从人权理事会除名的联合国投票中投了弃权票。 |
| “Our government has adopted the questionable strategy of trying to ignore the biggest geopolitical earthquake in 70 years in our agenda as this year’s G-20 President, which kind of blows my mind,” said Tom Lembong, a former trade minister. |
| 印尼前贸易部长托马斯·伦邦表示：“作为20国集团今年的主席国，我们的政府采取了让人质疑的策略，试图在我们的议程中忽略70年来最大的地缘政治地震，这让我大吃一惊。” |
| Other U.S. allies have characterized their decision to diversify as a function of American absenteeism. Last year, as China spread its vaccine diplomacy around the world, the United States was seen initially as hoarding its pandemic supplies. |
| 其他美国盟友将分散风险的决定归咎于美国缺席。去年，随着中国在全球范围内展开疫苗外交，美国最初被认为在囤积疫情物资。 |
| Before that, during Donald J. Trump’s presidency, the United States pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an expansive trade pact that was meant to counter China’s way of doing business. Countries like Vietnam that had staked their reputations on joining felt betrayed, once again, by Washington. |
| 在此之前，在特朗普担任总统期间，美国退出了跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)，这是一项广泛的贸易协定，旨在对抗中国的贸易行为。像越南那样在加入时曾押上自己声誉的国家，再次感到华盛顿背叛了它们。 |
| Mexico, a longtime U.S. ally, has emphasized its neutrality, and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has rejected sanctions on Russia. |
| 美国的长期盟友墨西哥强调中立，总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔拒绝对俄罗斯实施制裁。 |
| “Mexico’s neutrality is not neutral,” said Tony Payan of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. “Mexico is poking Washington in the eye.” |
| “墨西哥的中立性并不中立，”莱斯大学贝克公共政策研究所的托尼·帕扬说。“墨西哥戳中了华盛顿的痛处。” |
| About one-third of American ambassadorships in Latin America and the Caribbean remain unfilled. The vacancies include Brazil, the largest regional economy, and the Organization of American States. |
| 大约三分之一的美国驻拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的大使职位空缺。其中包括最大的区域经济体巴西和美洲国家组织的大使职位。 |
| “Many Latin Americans were realizing that the United States was abandoning them,” said Vladimir Rouvinski, a professor at Icesi University in Cali, Colombia. |
| “许多拉美人意识到美国正在抛弃他们，”哥伦比亚卡利市伊塞西大学教授弗拉基米尔·鲁文斯基说。 |
| Russia cannot count on automatic allegiance from its historical allies, either. Apart from a sense of autocratic camaraderie, ideology is no longer part of Moscow’s allure. Russia has neither the patronage cash nor the geopolitical clout of the Soviet Union. |
| 俄罗斯也不能指望其传统盟友自动效忠。意识形态不再是莫斯科的诱惑力之一，只剩下专制的同志情谊。俄罗斯既拿不出资金资助，也没有苏联那样的地缘政治影响力。 |
| Venezuela, Russia’s staunchest supporter in Latin America, received a high-level American delegation on the heels of the Ukraine invasion. Nicaragua, which became one of the first countries to back Russia’s recognition of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, has since tempered its enthusiasm. |
| 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，它在拉丁美洲最坚定的支持者委内瑞拉接待了一个高级别的美国代表团。尼加拉瓜是最早支持俄罗斯承认乌克兰东部分裂地区的国家之一，但自那以后，它的热情有所缓和。 |
| During a March U.N. vote condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Cuba abstained, rather than backing Moscow, although it and Nicaragua later rejected the effort to kick Russia off the Human Rights Council. |
| 在3月联合国谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的投票中，古巴没有支持莫斯科，而是投了弃权票，尽管古巴和尼加拉瓜后来拒绝了把俄罗斯从人权理事会除名的努力。 |
| “They’re trying to walk a fine line between certainly not celebrating the invasion, but also not clearly condemning it, arguing in favor of peace,” said Renata Keller, a Cuba expert at the University of Nevada, Reno. |
| 内华达大学古巴问题专家雷娜塔·凯勒说，“他们试图保持微妙的平衡，既不赞美入侵，又不明确谴责入侵，并且主张和平。” |
| The most noticeable hedging has come from Africa, which accounted for nearly half the countries that abstained in the March U.N. vote. |
| 最引人注目的对冲来自非洲，在3月的联合国投票中，非洲国家占弃权国家的近一半。 |
| “We don’t know why they are fighting,” President Samia Suluhu Hassan of Tanzania said in an interview, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. |
| “我们不知道他们为什么要打仗，”坦桑尼亚总统萨米娅·苏卢胡·哈桑在接受采访时说，她指的是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。 |
| She added that she was “not sure” there was a clear aggressor in the conflict. |
| 她又说，她“不确定”冲突中是否有明显的侵略者。 |
| For Thailand, the decision to train with the American, Russian and Chinese militaries, as well as to buy weaponry from each country, is part of its long history of balancing between great powers. Deft diplomacy allowed Thailand to emerge as the only nation in the region not to be colonized. |
| 泰国在平衡大国关系方面有着悠久的历史，它的军队与美国、俄罗斯和中国的军队一起训练，并分别从这三个国家购买武器，都是该传统的一部分。灵活的外交手腕曾使泰国成为该地区唯一没有遭受殖民的国家。 |
| The current drift away from the United States, which used Thailand as a staging ground for the Vietnam War, also stems from the political pedigree of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who came to power in a military coup eight years ago. |
| 美国曾把泰国作为越南战争的集结地，目前两国关系的疏远也源于泰国总理巴育·占奥差的政治血统，他在八年前的一场军事政变中上台。 |
| “Though Thailand may currently appear as a democracy, it is at heart an autocracy,” said Paul Chambers, a lecturer in international affairs at Naresuan University in Thailand. “A regime such as this will have autocratic bedfellows, including in Moscow.” |
| “尽管泰国目前可能是一个民主国家，但它本质上是一个专制国家，”泰国纳黎萱大学国际事务讲师保罗·钱伯斯表示。“像这样的政权会有专制的伙伴，包括在莫斯科。” |
| The same holds in Uganda, which receives almost a billion dollars in American aid and is a key Western ally in the fight against regional militancy. Yet the government of President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda has been criticized by the United States and the European Union for a pattern of human rights violations. |
| 乌干达的情况也是如此。乌干达接受了美国近10亿美元的援助，是西方打击地区武装分子的重要盟友。然而，乌干达总统约韦里·穆塞韦尼的政府因侵犯人权而受到美国和欧盟的批评。 |
| Mr. Museveni has responded by assailing the West’s interference in Libya and Iraq. The president’s son, who also commands the country’s land forces, tweeted that a “majority of mankind (that are non-white) support Russia’s stand in Ukraine.” |
| 穆塞韦尼的回应是抨击西方对利比亚和伊拉克的干预。这位总统的儿子也是该国陆军的指挥官，他发推说，“大多数人类（非白人）支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的立场。” |
| Uganda, like dozens of other countries, can afford to speak up because of a new top trading partner: China. This economic reality, even if Beijing promises more than it delivers, has shielded nations once dependent on other superpowers from stark geopolitical choices. |
| 和其他几十个国家一样，乌干达能够站出来说话，是因为它有了新的最大贸易伙伴：中国。这一经济现实（尽管北京没有兑现它全部的承诺）使得曾经依赖其他超级大国的国家免受严峻的地缘政治选择的影响。 |
| Strategically located countries like Djibouti, host to Camp Lemonnier, the largest permanent U.S. base on the African continent, have diversified. A few years ago, after President Ismail Omar Guelleh’s invitation, Beijing established its first overseas military outpost in Djibouti. Mr. Guelleh also secured loans from the Chinese to help develop ports, free trade zones and a railway. |
| 一些具有战略地位的国家已经实现了多样化，比如吉布提，它拥有美国在非洲大陆最大的永久基地勒莫尼耶军营。几年前，应吉布提总统伊斯梅尔·奥马尔·盖莱的邀请，北京在吉布提建立了其第一个海外军事前哨基地。盖莱还从中国获得了贷款，以便开发港口、自由贸易区和一条铁路。 |
| Growing Chinese engagement has provided African countries with “alternative investment, alternative markets and alternative ideas of development,” said Cobus van Staden, at the South African Institute of International Affairs. |
| 南非国际事务研究所的科布斯·范施塔登表示，中国日益增多的参与，为非洲国家提供了“替代投资、替代市场和替代发展理念”。 |
| But if the world feels more comfortably multipolar these days, the ripple effects of the fighting in Ukraine are a reminder that globalization quickly links far-flung nations. |
| 但是，如果说当今世界更喜欢多极化，那么乌克兰战争的涟漪效应提醒我们，全球化迅速将遥远的国家联系到了一起。 |
| Escalating global prices for fuel, food and fertilizer, all a result of war in Ukraine, have heightened hardship in Africa and Asia. Already contending with a devastating drought, East Africa now has at least 13 million people facing severe hunger. |
| 乌克兰战争导致全球燃料、食品和化肥价格不断上涨，加剧了非洲和亚洲的困境。东非遭遇了毁灭性的干旱，现在至少有1300万人面临严重的饥荒。 |
| And populations outside of Europe know too well that their refugees — such as Syrians, Venezuelans, Afghans, South Sudanese and the Rohingya of Myanmar — cannot expect the welcome given to displaced Ukrainians. In a race for finite reserves of care, aid groups have warned of the perils of donor fatigue for the world’s most vulnerable. |
| 欧洲以外的人非常清楚，他们的难民——如叙利亚人、委内瑞拉人、阿富汗人、南苏丹人和缅甸的罗辛亚人——不能指望得到流离失所的乌克兰人所得到的那种欢迎。在争夺有限关怀储备的竞赛中，援助组织警告，对世界上最脆弱的人群来说，捐助疲劳是危险的。 |
| “The whole world,” President Hassan of Tanzania said, referring to Russia and Ukraine, “is affected when these countries are fighting.” |
| 坦桑尼亚总统哈桑在提到俄罗斯和乌克兰时说：“当这些国家发生战争时，整个世界都会受到影响。” |
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