高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%

高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%_OK阅读网


	双语新闻 Bilingual News	双语对照阅读分级系列阅读智能辅助阅读在线英语学习

首页 | 双语新闻 | 双语读物 | 双语名著 |

[英文] [中文] [双语对照] [双语交替] []

高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%
Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months

来源：中国日报 2022-04-22 17:05

The bank’s economists see the odds of a recession at about 15% in the next 12 months, with the odds rising to 35% over the next 24 months.该投资银行经济学家认为，未来一年美国经济衰退的可能性约为15%，而在未来两年美国经济衰退的可能性将上升至35%。

One reason recession odds are so low for the next 12 months is that the Fed benchmark rate is so low — in a range of 0.25% – 0.5%. The US central bank ‘s policy rate won’t be up to a “neutral level” that no longer boosts inflation until the end of the year. Moving rates into “restrictive” territory – generally seen as above 2.5% — won’t happen until 2023.未来12个月美国经济发生衰退的可能性仅为15%，原因之一是美联储的基准利率很低，在0.25％-0.5％的范围内。美联储的政策利率在今年年底前不会达到不再推高通胀的“中性水平”。利率要到2023年才会进入“限制性”区间（通常被认为高于2.5％）。

Last week, New York Fed President John Williams said achieving a soft landing would not be easy.上周，纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示，实现经济软着陆并非易事。

In their note to clients, Goldman said it didn’t believe a recession was inevitable.高盛在给客户的报告中称，他们不认为美国经济衰退是不可避免的。

The main goal of the Fed’s planned rate hikes is to slow wage growth from its recent 5%-6% pace to at least 4%-4.5%, Goldman said. That would help cool inflation close to the Fed’s 2% target in 2023 and 2024.高盛表示，美联储计划加息的主要目标是将工资增速从最近的5％-6％放缓至至少4％-4.5％。这将有助于冷却通胀，使其接近美联储2023年和2024年通胀率2%的目标。

But Goldman said that it expects the Fed to raise its benchmark rate up to range of 3- 3.25% before they are able to get inflation under control. This is what raises the odds of a recession, the firm said.但高盛预测，美联储要把基准利率提高到3-3.25%的范围才能对抗通货膨胀。这会增加经济衰退的可能性。

返回首页

高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months

高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%
Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months