高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%

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高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%
Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months

来源：中国日报 2022-04-22 17:05

There is a real chance that the US economy is going to suffer a recession or “hard landing” in the next two years, according to the economic team at Goldman Sachs.美国高盛集团经济团队表示，未来两年，美国经济很有可能陷入衰退或“硬着陆”。

With inflation above 8% for the first time in forty years, Fed officials say they are laser focused on getting interest rates up.由于美国通货膨胀率40年来首次超过8%，美联储官员表示正在加息对抗通胀。

The Fed wants to try to engineer a soft landing, raising rates enough to cool inflation but not so much as to damage the labor market.美联储希望设法实现经济软着陆，加息实现通胀降温，但又不至于破坏劳动力市场。

On Monday, William Dudley, his predecessor at the helm of the New York Fed, said a hard landing was inevitable.前纽约联邦储备银行掌门人威廉·达德利4月18日也表示，美国经济硬着陆是不可避免的。

The Fed will benefit by post-covid normalizations in labor supply and durable goods prices. More people coming back into the workforce will cool off wages and with the pandemic easing, households are expected to spend more on vacations and other services.美联储将从后疫情时代劳动力供应和耐用品价格的正常化中受益。更多人重返工作岗位将使工资下降，随着疫情缓解，预计家庭的度假和其他服务支出将会增加。

The current strong economic momentum also limits the risk of a recession in the near-term, Goldman said.该机构称，目前强劲的经济动能也限制了近期出现衰退的风险。

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高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months

高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35%
Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months