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面对中俄朝威胁,日本和平主义立场发生转变
With Threats All Around, Japan Moves to Shed Its Pacifist Constraints

来源:纽约时报    2022-04-13 05:03



        TOKYO — Late in February, just days after the Russian invasion, Ukraine asked Japan to ship an assortment of military equipment, from antitank weapons and ammunition to electronic radar and bulletproof vests.        东京——2月下旬,就在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰几天后,乌克兰向日本请求运送各种军事装备,包括反坦克武器和弹药,还有电子雷达和防弹背心等等。
        It seemed an all but futile request. Japan, which has forsworn combat since the end of World War II, had not sent military matériel to another country in the midst of fighting a war in more than 75 years.        这个请求看上去似乎是在白费功夫。日本在“二战”后发誓不再参战,75年来未向其他国家运送过任何军事物资。
        But within a week, the Japanese government had modified its rules governing military exports. And in early March, the country’s Self-Defense Forces loaded up a Boeing KC-767 tanker aircraft with bulletproof vests and helmets, bound for the battlefields of Ukraine.        但在不到一周的时间里,日本政府就修改了军事出口管制规定。3月初,日本自卫队的一架波音KC-767加油机装载着防弹背心和头盔飞往乌克兰战场。
        Although it could not compare with the airlift of arms sent by American and European officials, the military aid marked a decisive moment in Japan’s evolution away from the pacifist identity it has embraced since the United States pushed to insert a clause renouncing war into Japan’s postwar Constitution.        虽然比不上美国和欧洲官员向乌克兰空运的武器,但这样的军事援助标志着自美国要求日本战后宪法加入放弃战争条款以来,日本和平主义立场转变的决定性一刻。
        Not only has Japan moved swiftly to enact sanctions against Russia in near lock step with the United States and Europe — in contrast to its response to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 — but it has also intensified broader security discussions as it confronts rising threats from China and North Korea.        与2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚时不同,日本如今不仅与欧美步调一致地对俄罗斯迅速实施了制裁,还加强了更广泛的安全讨论,因为来自中国和朝鲜的威胁正不断增加。
        It’s another example of how the war in Ukraine has reordered the world, swiftly changing the stance of nations once reluctant to invest in military power, most notably Germany. There are growing calls among Japanese lawmakers for a significant increase in the country’s defense budget and an intensifying debate about whether Japan should acquire weapons capable of striking missile launch sites in enemy territory.        这是乌克兰战争改变世界秩序的又一例证,这场战争迅速扭转了以往不愿投资军事力量的国家的立场,德国尤其明显。日本国会议员们要求大幅增加国防预算的呼声日益高涨,关于是否应该购买能够打击敌方导弹发射基地的武器的争论也愈发激烈。
        The moves demonstrate Japan’s recognition that it must bolster its own deterrent power, rather than simply relying on its alliance with the United States to protect it or its interests in Asia.        这些举措表明,日本认识到,要想保护自己,或自己在亚洲的利益,不能单纯依靠与美国的同盟关系,而应加强自身的威慑力量。
        In a news briefing on Friday announcing new sanctions and the expulsion of eight Russian diplomats, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said it was important to “thoroughly enhance defense with a sense of speed.”        日本首相岸田文雄在周五的新闻发布会上宣布了新的制裁措施,并驱逐了八名俄罗斯外交官,他表示,“带着紧迫感全面加强防卫”是至关重要的。
        For Mr. Kishida, the leader of a dovish wing of the governing Liberal Democratic Party, such assertive national security language is a departure from his previous focus on taming the pandemic and reforming economic policy.        岸田文雄是执政的自由民主党的鸽派领导人,在国家安全问题上选择如此强硬的措辞,与他此前专注于控制疫情和改革经济政策的态度大相径庭。
        “It’s very astonishing to see the developments in Ukraine,” said Ken Jimbo, a professor of international relations at Keio University in Tokyo. “And that might really impact how we look at our own defense posture.”        “乌克兰的事态发展令人非常惊讶,”东京庆应义塾大学国际关系学教授神保谦说。“这很可能会影响我们对自身防卫姿态的看法。”
        Japan’s sense of urgency stems in part from the fact that Russia’s eastern reaches lie only 25 miles from the tip of Japan’s northern island, Hokkaido. The Ukraine war has severed a diplomatic channel with Moscow that Japan had kept open in hopes of negotiating the status of disputed islands that are claimed by both countries and have prevented them from signing a treaty ending World War II.        日本感到紧张,部分原因是由于俄罗斯东部与日本北方岛屿北海道的最北部仅有约40公里的距离。乌克兰战争切断了日本与俄罗斯的外交渠道,此前日本始终保持着这一渠道的畅通,希望就争议岛屿问题进行谈判。日俄两国皆声称对这些岛屿拥有主权,并因此未能签署结束“二战”的条约。
        Looming even larger is China, which Japan’s defense ministry now ranks as the country’s most serious long-term threat. Along with the United States, Tokyo is increasingly concerned that Beijing might try to use force to take control of Taiwan, a democratically governed island that China claims as its own.        更迫在眉睫的威胁则来自中国,日本防卫省如今将之列为最严峻的长期威胁。与美国一样,日本愈发担心中国可能会试图武力夺取台湾,中国一直声称对这个民主岛屿拥有主权。
        Japan also worries about territory closer to home: It has mobilized Self-Defense Forces fighter jets to patrol the area around the Senkakus, islands administered by Japan but contested by China.        日本还对离本国较近的一些领土争端忧虑不已:该国已动员自卫队战斗机巡逻尖阁诸岛周边地区,这些岛屿由日本管理,但中国表达了异议。
        North Korea, too, remains a source of anxiety. Since the beginning of the year, Pyongyang has tested 12 ballistic missiles, some of which have landed near the country’s territorial waters.        朝鲜也是日本的一个焦虑来源。自今年年初以来,朝鲜试射了12枚弹道导弹,其中一些落在日本领海附近。
        Among politicians in Japan, there is a sense “that the ground has shifted,” the U.S. ambassador to Tokyo, Rahm Emanuel, said in an interview. “It’s both about what Russia just did unilaterally in Ukraine, but also about what North Korea’s doing and what China’s doing.”        美国驻日大使拉姆·伊曼纽尔在接受采访时表示,日本政界有一种“形势发生了改变”的感觉。“这不仅关乎俄罗斯单方面在乌克兰做了什么,还关乎朝鲜和中国都在做什么。”
        While Germany — another country haunted by the legacy of World War II — responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a nearly overnight about-face in its military-averse foreign policy, Japan had already been taking incremental steps to bolster its defense and fighting capacity as it faced the potential for hostilities nearby.        面对俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵,同样深受“二战”遗留问题影响的德国几乎在一夜之间彻底改变了反对军事行动的外交政策。而面临国境附近可能出现的敌对行动,日本已经在逐步采取措施,加强防卫和战斗能力。
        During the campaign for a parliamentary election in October, the Liberal Democrats issued a party platform that proposed an increase in Japan’s defense budget to 2 percent of the country’s economic output, in order to bring it into line with members of NATO.        在去年10月的国会选举中,自民党为了与北约成员国保持一致,提出了将防卫经费增加至经济产出2%的施政纲领。
        This month, Japan’s defense minister, Nobuo Kishi, reiterated calls for drastically expanding military spending. Even the political opposition supports increased outlays.        本月,日本防卫大臣岸信夫再次呼吁大幅增加军费。甚至连政治反对派也支持增加开支。
        “We do not oppose increasing the defense budget if necessary,” Kenta Izumi, head of the Constitutional Democratic Party, the largest opposition party in Japan’s Parliament, said in an interview in his office in Tokyo.        “如果有必要,我们不反对增加国防预算,”日本国会最大的反对党立宪民主党党魁泉健太在东京的办公室接受采访时说。
        In recent years, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces have conducted more military exercises with troops from the United States, Australia, Britain and France. Last month, in a series of drills with U.S. Marines that had been planned long before the Ukraine war, Japanese troops flew MV-22B Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft for the first time in cooperation with American forces. Last year, Japan converted a naval destroyer ship into a carrier that could accommodate F-35 fighter jets. Japan has also recently acquired American-made military surveillance drones.        近年来,日本自卫队与来自美国、澳大利亚、英国和法国的部队进行了更多军事演习。上个月,在与美国海军陆战队的一系列演习中,日本军队首次与美军合作,用MV-22B“鱼鹰”倾转旋翼机进行演习。这是在乌克兰战争之前就已计划好的。去年,日本将一艘海军驱逐舰改装成可搭载F-35战斗机的航母。日本最近还购买了美国制造的军用侦察无人机。
        Japanese politicians have used the invasion of Ukraine to step up military rhetoric further. The more extreme ideas — most emphatically a proposal floated by Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, that the country host American nuclear weapons — are likely to go nowhere. But in polls over the last five years, about two-thirds of the public has consistently supported enhancing the country’s defense capabilities.        日本政界人士利用入侵乌克兰事件,进一步加强了军事上的调门。更极端的想法可能不会有任何进展——其中最突出的是日本任期最长的首相安倍晋三提出的让日本拥有美国核武器的建议。但在过去五年的民意调查中,大约三分之二的公众一直支持加强国家的国防能力。
        In some ways, Mr. Kishida, a liberal-leaning member of a conservative party, may accomplish more to push Japan into its military future than did Mr. Abe, a right-wing ideologue who failed in his quest to revise the pacifist clause in Japan’s Constitution.        在某些方面,作为保守派政党中的自由派成员,岸田文雄在推动日本走向军事未来方面可能会比安倍晋三取得更多成就。作为一名右翼理论家,安倍晋三在寻求修改日本宪法中的和平条款过程中失败了。
        With the Kishida administration, said Yuichi Hosoya, a professor of international politics at Keio University, “we don’t expect that they will try to abuse this opportunity to radically change Japanese defense policy for their own ideological reasons.”        庆应义塾大学国际政治学教授细谷雄一说,对于岸田文雄政府,“我们不认为他们会为了自己的意识形态原因,试图利用这个机会彻底改变日本的防卫政策。”
        “As long as we work hard to enhance our capabilities, hopefully the North Koreans and Chinese will be convinced that the risk of possible intervention or involvement of the United States and Japan is high enough that they decide not to start a war in the first place,” said Narushige Michishita, a professor of international relations at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.        “只要我们努力提高我们的能力,希望朝鲜和中国会相信,美国和日本可能进行干预或介入的风险很高,令他们一开始就决定不发动战争,”东京国立政策研究所国际关系教授道下德成说。
        Yet if conflict did arise in Taiwan or on the Korean Peninsula, the Japanese might well be called upon to join the fray.        然而,如果台湾或朝鲜半岛真的发生冲突,日本很可能会被要求加入战斗。
        With Japan’s status as a treaty ally of the United States, the inevitable question could be whether Tokyo “needs to do a little bit more if it looks like a situation that might affect Japan more strongly than the U.S. public on the mainland,” said Takako Hikotani, a professor at Gakushuin University International Center.        由于日本是美国的条约盟友,不可避免的问题可能是,东京是否“需要多做一点,如果情况看起来对日本的影响可能比对美国本土公众的影响更强烈,”学习院大学国际中心的教授彦谷贵子说。
        In 2015, Parliament passed security laws that authorized overseas combat missions for Japan’s military. In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the fight could even come to Japan itself. Beijing could order attacks on U.S. bases in Japan, where 55,000 American troops are stationed, and also on Japanese military installations in the southern archipelago of Okinawa.        2015年,国会通过安全法,授权日本军队执行海外作战任务。如果中国入侵台湾,这场战争甚至可能波及日本。北京可能会下令攻击驻日美军基地,那里有5.5万名美军驻扎,还有日本南部冲绳岛的军事设施。
        But while the Japanese public backs a stronger military, it is far less supportive of situations that would send Japanese troops into combat. In a survey last year by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, six out of 10 Japanese polled said they did not want Japanese troops to fight alongside Americans in a conflict.        但是,尽管支持拥有强大的军队,日本民众对日本军队投入战斗的支持要少很多。在芝加哥全球事务委员会和日本国际事务研究所去年进行的一项调查中,60%的日本受访者表示,他们不希望日本军队在冲突中与美国并肩作战。
        Polls also show that the public is split on whether Japan should acquire weapons that could attack missile launch sites in enemy territory. And unlike in South Korea, where the Ukraine invasion has revived discussions about whether the country should have nuclear weapons, the public in Japan remains opposed.        民意调查还显示,在日本是否应该获得可攻击敌方导弹发射场的武器方面,公众存在分歧。在韩国,入侵乌克兰的行动重新引发了有关该国是否应该拥有核武器的讨论,与其不同的是,日本民众对此仍然持反对态度。
        For the Japanese government, the turn toward more military language also has a diplomatic calculation.        对日本政府来说,更多谈及军事也是出于外交考虑。
        It was Mr. Abe who coined the phrase “free and open Indo-Pacific,” and in conjunction with the U.S. government, Japan has frequently called for a “rules-based order” in relation to containing China.        安倍晋三创造了“自由开放的印太地区”这句话,日本与美国政府一道,在遏制中国的问题上,经常呼吁建立“基于规则的秩序”。
        To fulfill its international leadership role, said Lauren Richardson, director of the Japan Institute at the Australian National University, Japan needs to hold Russia to the same standards. If it didn’t, she said, “Japan would look like a hypocrite.”        澳大利亚国立大学日本研究所所长劳伦·理查森表示,为了履行其国际领导角色,日本需要将俄罗斯置于同样的标准之下。她说,如果不这样做,“日本就会看起来像个伪君子。”
                
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