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疫情封锁影响经济,中国一季度GDP仅增4.8%
China’s Economic Data Hints at Cost of Zero Covid Strategy

来源:纽约时报    2022-04-21 03:52



        BEIJING — Faced with its worst Covid-19 outbreak yet, China has been enforcing an expanding number of mass quarantines, strict lockdowns and border controls. The measures may yet work, but official data released on Monday show they are exacting a grim toll on the world’s second-largest economy.
        北京——面对迄今最严重的新冠疫情,中国一直在实施更多的大规模隔离、严格封锁和边境控制。这些措施可能还会奏效,但周一公布的官方数据显示,它们正给世界第二大经济体带来沉重的打击。
        China’s economy expanded 4.8 percent in the first three months of this year compared to the same period last year. That pace was barely faster than the final three months of last year, and it also obscured a looming problem.
        今年前三个月,中国经济同比增长4.8%。这一增速仅比去年最后三个月略快,它还掩盖了一个迫在眉睫的问题。
        Much of that growth was recorded in January and February. Last month, economic activity slowed as Shenzhen, the technology hub in the south, and then Shanghai, the country’s biggest city, and other important industrial centers shut down. The lockdowns suspended assembly lines, grounded workers, trapped truck drivers and snarled ports. They confined hundreds of millions of consumers at home.
        其中大部分增长是在1月和2月录得。上个月,随着南方科技中心深圳、中国最大城市上海以及其他重要工业中心相继停摆,中国经济活动放缓。封锁使得装配线暂停,工人停工,卡车司机被困,港口阻塞。数以亿计的消费者被限制在家中。
        Retail sales, a crucial sign of whether consumers are spending, fell 3.5 percent in March from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Factory output grew 5 percent, a rate that was slower than the pace recorded in the first two months. Imports, which had been racing ahead in the first two months of the year, fell slightly last month, partly because of transportation snags.
        中国国家统计局周一表示,3月份零售额同比下降3.5%。零售额是衡量消费者是否消费的关键指标。工业产出增长了5%,比前两个月录得速度慢。今年前两个月的进口一直在快速增长,但上个月略有下降,部分原因是运输受阻。
        The slowdown that started in March is expected to worsen this month, with even more regions placed under restrictions. This is bad news for China’s leaders, who have set a target of “about 5.5 percent” growth for the year.
        随着更多地区受到限制,3月份开始的放缓预计将在本月加剧。这对中国领导人来说是个坏消息,他们已经为今年设定了“约5.5%”的增长目标。
        Premier Li Keqiang called for “a sense of urgency” a week ago in telling local officials to limit the effects of Covid shutdowns on the economy. China’s central bank acted on Friday to help commercial banks lend more to promote economic growth.
        一周前,李克强总理告诉地方官员,要限制疫情对经济的影响,并呼吁要增强“紧迫感”。中国央行于周五采取行动,帮助商业银行增加贷款,以促进经济增长。
        For the world, China’s Covid shutdowns could feed inflation by further disrupting the supply chains that many manufacturers rely on, pushing up the cost of making and transporting goods. A sluggish China would also import less from other nations, whether it is natural resources like oil and iron ore or consumer goods like cherries or designer handbags.
        对世界来说,中国因新冠疫情而关闭工厂,可能会进一步扰乱许多制造商依赖的供应链,推高制造和运输货物的成本,从而加剧通胀。经济低迷的中国从其他国家的进口也会减少,无论是石油和铁矿石等自然资源,还是车厘子或名牌手袋等消费品。
        “Talking about the impact of the pandemic outlook on Shanghai and Shenzhen, we cannot forget that they are important parts of the entire supply chain and it will have certainly have an effect on the whole circle of the entire Chinese economy,” Yao Jingyuan, a former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics who is now a cabinet adviser, said at a news conference last Wednesday.
        “谈到新冠疫情对上海和深圳的影响,我们不能忘记,它们是整个供应链的重要组成部分,它肯定会对整个中国经济循环产生影响。”前国家统计局总经济师、现国务院顾问姚景源在上周三的新闻发布会上表示。
        Executives in the auto industry and tech sector, two of China’s biggest employers, have begun warning in recent days of crippling disruption to their nationwide operations if Shanghai, in particular, cannot reopen soon. The city manufactures many high-tech components that are crucial to many supply chains.
        中国最大的两个行业——汽车行业和科技行业的高管最近几天开始警告称,如果上海不能很快重新开放,他们在全国范围内的业务将受到严重影响。这座城市生产大量对许多供应链至关重要的高科技零部件。
        “Shanghai is a hub for international car companies — if the hub fails, the whole system won’t work,” Cui Dongshu, the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, said in a telephone interview.
        “上海是国际车企枢纽所在地。中枢不行,整个体系就不行,”中国乘联会会秘书长崔东树在接受电话采访时说。
        Lockdowns Cripple Local Economies
        封锁削弱了本地经济
        By April 11, 87 of China’s 100 largest cities had imposed some form of restriction on movement, according to Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent economic research firm that has been tracking lockdowns. These ranged from limiting who can enter or leave a city to full lockdowns as in Shanghai, where most residents have not been allowed to leave their homes even to buy food.
        据一直在跟踪封锁情况的独立经济研究公司龙洲经讯称,截至4月11日,中国100个最大城市中有87个实施了某种形式的行动限制,包括限制进出城市的人员,以及像上海那样的全面封锁,在上海,大多数居民甚至不能离开家去买食物。
        Yang Degang, the manager of a factory that makes plastic molding machines in Zhangjiagang, 70 miles from Shanghai, was forced to halt operations after his town imposed a lockdown on Wednesday.
        周三,距上海110公里的张家港市实施封锁后,该市一家塑料成型机制造厂的经理杨德刚(音)被迫让工厂停产。
        Even before the lockdown, the authorities had imposed restrictions that were preventing the movement of trucks. This meant Mr. Yang couldn’t get components on time to build his machines and could not deliver finished equipment to many factories and ports in lockdowns.
        甚至在封锁之前,当局就实施了限制,阻止卡车通行。这意味着杨德刚无法按时拿到制造机器所需的零部件,也无法将成品设备交付给许多处于封锁状态的工厂和港口。
        Mr. Yang said he did not know when he could reopen. “Zhangjiagang is under huge pressure,” he said. “I worry about losses, but there is no other way.”
        杨德刚说他不知道什么时候能重新开张。“张家港压力很大,”他说。“我肯定担心损失,但没别的办法。”
        But while more and more cities are imposing lockdowns — Taiyuan, the hub of China’s coal industry, joined the list last Thursday — the stringency of municipal lockdowns has weakened a little lately. From the end of March through last Wednesday, the number of large cities with severe lockdowns fell to six from 14, according to Gavekal. The share of China’s economic output represented by these cities shrank to 8 percent, from 14 percent.
        然而,尽管越来越多的城市正在实施封锁——中国煤炭工业中心太原上周四也加入了这一行列——但市级封锁最近有所放松。根据龙洲经讯的数据,从3月底到上周三,实施严格封锁的大城市数量从14个下降到六个。这些城市在中国经济产出中所占的比例从14%降至8%。
        Beijing has ordered local governments to help trucks reach their destinations and take other measures to shield the economy from harm during lockdowns. Nio, an electric carmaker in Hefei in central China, halted car assembly on April 9. Hefei was not locked down, but crucial components suppliers were in Shanghai, Jilin and elsewhere. By last Thursday, however, the company had obtained enough car parts to resume limited production.
        北京已下令地方政府帮助卡车抵达目的地,并采取其他措施,在封锁期间保护经济免受损害。位于合肥的电动汽车制造商蔚来汽车的整车生产于4月9日暂停。合肥并没有封城,但关键的零部件供应商在上海、吉林等地。不过截至上周四,该公司已经获得了足够的汽车零部件,逐步恢复生产。
        Workers Face Difficulties
        工人面临困难
        Many workers are struggling as well. Truck drivers, for example, face the constant danger of weekslong quarantines, for which they are often not paid even as interest payments on their trucks keep falling due.
        许多工人也面临着各种困难。例如,卡车司机经常面临长达数周的隔离,期间他们拿不到任何报酬,即使有购车贷款需要偿还。
        Yu Yao, a truck driver who delivers vegetables and fruits from Shandong Province to Shanghai, is one of many Chinese truck drivers stranded because of ever-tightening epidemic control measures. He has been trapped in Shanghai for more than three weeks.
        从山东向上海运送蔬菜和水果的卡车司机余耀(音)是因不断收紧的疫情防控措施而受困的许多卡车司机中的一员。他已经被困在上海三个多星期了。
        Mr. Yu came to Shanghai on March 16 to deliver vegetables to a market. He was still in the city three days later when the authorities identified him as a close contact of an infected person in the market. The police ordered him to be immediately quarantined. So he stopped his truck near a highway and began to wait.
        余耀于3月16日来到上海,给一家市场送菜。三天后,他仍在上海,因为有关部门确认他是市场上一名感染者的密切接触者。警察命令他立即隔离。于是他把卡车停在高速公路附近,开始等待。
        He has been waiting ever since. No one has fetched him for quarantine. He lacks a travel permit now required to drive a truck in Shanghai during the lockdown. He and four other drivers without travel permits have slept on the ground and shared bread for three weeks.
        然后,就一直在等。没有人接他去隔离。他没有封城期间的通行证,卡车动弹不得。在过去三周时间里,他与其他四名没有通行证的司机就睡在地上,分面包吃。
        “We can’t get off the highway, every exit is guarded. We just want to go home,” Mr. Yu said. “I couldn’t get enough food the other day, and my body can’t take it anymore.”
        “我们现在下不了高速,每个路口都是公安。我们就想回家,“余耀说道。“前几天吃不饱,身体受不了。”
        Surviving on Exports
        靠出口维持生存
        One area of China’s economy continued to barrel along in the first three months of this year: exports. Chinese factories have grabbed a considerably larger share of world markets during the pandemic, including a jump of 14.7 percent in exports in March from a year ago. Many multinational companies continue to depend on large networks of components suppliers in China.
        今年前三个月,中国经济的一个领域继续高速增长:出口。在疫情期间,中国的工厂拿下了相当大的国际市场份额,3月份出口同比增长14.7%。许多跨国公司继续依赖中国庞大的零部件供应商网络。
        But as China keeps disrupting production by imposing stringent lockdowns with no warning, at least a few importers in the West are starting to look elsewhere for supplies. Jake Phipps, the founder of Phipps & Company, an American importer and distributor of home furnishings that sells to hotel and apartment developers, said that in the past two years he had been shifting many orders away from China.
        但是,随着中国不断在没有任何警告的情况下实施严格的封锁而扰乱生产,至少西方的一些进口商已经开始在其他地方寻找供应。Phipps & Company公司的创始人杰克·菲普斯说,在过去的两年里,他已经将许多订单下到了其他国家。
        He has started buying kitchen cabinets from Vietnam and Turkey, vinyl flooring from Vietnam and India and stainless steel sinks from Malaysia. China’s repeated lockdowns have delayed too many shipments, including a lockdown in part of Ningbo, near Shanghai, that delayed his shipment of plumbing supplies last month. Many customers are now wary of relying on China because of tariffs, geopolitical tensions and questions about China’s possible role in the origins of the coronavirus, he added.
        他开始从越南和土耳其采购厨柜,从越南和印度采购塑胶地板,从马来西亚采购不锈钢水槽。中国因为反复封锁耽误了许多货物的交付,包括上海附近的宁波部分地区的封锁,导致上个月他的一批管道用品推迟发货。他还说,由于关税、地缘政治紧张局势以及中国在新冠病毒的起源中可能扮演的角色引起的质疑,许多客户现在对依赖中国持谨慎态度。
        “Reliability has made me move, and the comfort of customers not wanting to order from China,” Mr. Phipps said.
        “因为不靠谱,我去了其他地方下单,还有客户也不愿买来自中国的东西,”菲普斯说。
        
        
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