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缅甸民主运动已不再需要昂山素季?
Aung San Suu Kyi Falls, but Myanmar’s Democratic Hopes Move On

来源:纽约时报    2021-12-08 09:00



        When a court in Myanmar on Monday handed down the first sentences in the junta’s long list of charges against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, it closed a chapter on an era of weak and compromised democracy in a Southeast Asian nation long ruled by a military fist.        周一,缅甸一家法院对昂山素季作出了军政府对其一系列指控中的首项判决,这意味着在这个长期处于军方铁腕统治的东南亚国家,一个充斥着软弱和妥协的民主时代已经结束。
        But already, a new democratic movement has emerged — younger, more progressive, more confrontational and ready to look beyond Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi for a guiding light. Hope now rests with an immensely popular shadow government that formed after Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s civilian leader, was detained by the military in a Feb. 1 coup.        但一场新的民主运动已经兴起——更年轻、更进步、更敢于对抗、且并不打算仅将昂山素季一人作为指路明灯。如今,人们的希望就寄托在了深受支持的秘密政府身上,这个政府成立于缅甸文职领导人昂山素季在2月1日的政变中被军方拘捕之后。
        The challenges are immense for this new group of leaders, known as the National Unity Government, many of whom are forced to operate from exile.        对这个被称为民族团结政府的新领导集团而言,挑战是艰巨的,他们中的许多人被迫在流亡中进行活动。
        The junta is unlikely to be dislodged without unimaginable bloodshed. It and thousands of protesters, some of whom have taken up arms, are locked in a violent stalemate, prompting a top U.N. official to warn of an “alarming possibility of an escalating civil war.” No foreign nation has recognized the shadow government, although its representatives have met with senior U.S. officials, including the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan.        不经历惨痛的流血,军政府不太可能下台。团结政府与成千上万的抗议者——其中一些已经拿起了武器——陷入了暴力的僵局,这促使一名联合国高级官员发出了“内战升级的可能性令人担忧”的警告。尽管其代表已经会见了包括美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文在内的美国高级官员,但尚没有任何国家承认这个秘密政府。
        What is clear, however, is that politics in Myanmar have been reshaped. The self-proclaimed government has reach throughout society. With the help of the protest movement, it operates underground schools, clinics and hospitals. When it announced last month that it would sell “bonds” to fund its revolution, it raised $6.3 million in one day. In September, it called for a “people’s war” against the junta, prompting thousands of protesters known as the People’s Defense Forces to prepare for armed conflict.        然而,有一点是明确的,那就是缅甸政局已经被改写。这个自发成立的政府覆盖了整个社会。在抗议运动的推动下,它开办了地下学校、诊所和医院。上个月,它宣布将发行“债券”以筹集革命资金,一天之内就募集了630万美元。9月,它宣布对军政府发动“人民战争”,号召成千上万被称为“人民防卫军”的抗议者为武装冲突做好准备。
        “The landscape has completely changed,” said Khin Ohmar, a veteran democracy activist based in Virginia who runs a human rights organization in Myanmar. “The mainstream politics, the actors, the people’s political awareness — it’s all very different.”        “形势已经完全改变,”在缅甸运作一个人权组织的弗吉尼亚州资深民主活动人士钦奥玛表示。“不管是主流政界、演员还是人民的政治觉悟——一切都完全不同了。”
        Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi still has legions of devoted followers in Myanmar, who decry the military’s treatment of her. Hours after her conviction on Monday on charges of inciting public unrest and breaching Covid-19 protocols, the leader of Myanmar’s junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, reduced the four-year sentence meted out to her to two years. She is still facing nine other charges that could keep her locked up for the rest of her life.        昂山素季在缅甸仍然有大批忠实追随者,他们谴责军方对她的处置。周一,在因煽动公众骚乱和违反新冠防疫规定的罪名对昂山素季作出判决几个小时后,军政府领导人、军方总司令敏昂莱将昂山素季的四年刑期减为两年。昂山素季还面临着九项其他指控,可能会让她在狱中度过余生。
        But there is a deeper recognition now that her government let down many people, including ethnic minorities and rights activists.        但现在,人们更深刻地认识到,她的政府让包括少数民族和权利活动人士在内的许多群体失望了。
        Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s vision of democracy, both by circumstance and by choice, was constricted. Most of the ministers she appointed came from the Bamar ethnic majority; and nearly all of them belonged to her party, the National League of Democracy, or were people who supported the N.L.D. When she headed the civilian government, she named only one woman to the cabinet — herself.        昂山素季的民主愿景因环境和个人选择受到了限制。她任命的大多数部长都来自占人口多数的缅族;他们几乎全都属于她所在的全国民主联盟,要么就是其支持者。她领导文职政府期间仅任命了一位女性进入内阁,那就是她自己。
        The National Unity Government has assembled a more diverse leadership, appointing members of ethnic minorities to top positions. It has ensured that about one-third of its ministers come from groups other than the Bamar majority, and from parties other than the National League of Democracy. Nine of the 37 cabinet ministers are women.        民族团结政府组建了更多元化的领导层,任命少数民族成员担任高级职务。它已确保约三分之一的部长是非缅族,并且属于全国民主联盟之外的政党。37位内阁部长中有九位是女性。
        In June, the unity government said that Rohingya Muslims should be given equal rights, in stark contrast to Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi. She repeatedly refused to criticize the army’s campaign of ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya in 2017, when thousands were killed and more than 700,000 were driven across the border to Bangladesh. In 2019, she defended the army’s brutal conduct at The Hague, prompting calls for her to return the Nobel Peace Prize she was awarded in 1991.        6月,团结政府表示应给予罗辛亚穆斯林群体平等权利,这与昂山素季形成了鲜明对比。她一再拒绝谴责军队在2017年对罗辛亚人的种族清洗运动,当时有成千上万人被杀害,超过70万人被驱赶到孟加拉国边境。2019年,她在海牙为军方暴行辩护,引发了要求她退还在1991年获得的诺贝尔和平奖的呼声。
        The unity government has also proposed federalism as a way to reach out to the country’s ethnic groups. It announced that, if it took power, it would repeal the 2008 Constitution, which gives the military authority to block any constitutional change that could undermine its power.        团结政府还提议建立联邦制,以加强与国内少数民族的联系。它宣布,如果上台执政,就将废除“2008宪法”,该宪法让军方有权否决任何可能削弱其权力修宪举措。
        “I think a lot of the dynamics and a lot of the story has moved beyond Aung San Suu Kyi,” said Richard Horsey, a senior adviser on Myanmar for the International Crisis Group. “It’s not because she’s no longer loved and respected. It’s just that she’s been silenced, and a lot of things have happened without her and have taken on a life of their own.”        “我想,许多变化和许多情况都超越了昂山素季个人,”国际危机组织缅甸问题高级顾问理查德·霍尔西说道。“这并不是因为她不再受到爱戴和尊重。只是她被噤声了,很多事情是在没有她的情况下发生的,并且自行其事。”
        The National Unity Government lists Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi as one of its top leaders and has retained her title of state counselor. But it has also signaled a desire to move away from the model of concentrated power she employed as head of the civilian half of the government for five years.        民族团结政府将昂山素季列为最高领导人之一,并保留了她的国务资政头衔。但该政府也表态,希望摆脱她在担任文职政府领导人的五年里所采取的集权模式。
        The unity government says it will seek a broader consensus and take advice from a political body called the National Unity Consultative Council, which is made up of lawmakers from several political parties, ethnic armed organizations, civil society and people belonging to the broad-based protest movement.        团结政府表示将寻求更广泛的共识,并听取一个名为“民族团结协商委员会”的政治机构的建议。该机构由多政党议员、少数民族武装组织、民间社会和参与广泛抗议运动的人士组成。
        “Our organization will not be led by a single person,” Min Ko Naing, of the activist group 88 Generation Peace and Open Society, said at a news conference last month to unveil the consultative council. “It will be more like a collective leadership.”        “我们的机构不会由一个人来领导,”敏哥奈在上个月宣布成立协商委员会的新闻发布会上表示,他来自“88世代和平与开放社会”组织。“它会更像一个领导集体。”
        Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has been held incommunicado in a house in Naypidaw, the capital of Myanmar. One person who has spoken with her on several occasions since her arrest said that her legal team had kept her informed on major events and the steps being taken by the shadow government, but that she was in no position to offer advice or guidance.        昂山素季一直被单独软禁在缅甸首都内比都的住处。一位自她被捕后曾多次与她交谈的人士表示,她的法律团队一直向她通报重大事件和秘密政府正在采取的举措,但她无法提供建议或指导。
        In private, she has expressed concern about the fate of the people and the brutality they have faced at the hands of the military. She was especially concerned that so many people had been killed and that so many young people were taking up arms.        私下里,她对人民的命运,以及他们在军方手中所承受的暴行表示了关切。太多人被杀害,太多年轻人拿起了武器,这让她尤其担忧。
        U Moe Zaw Oo, the deputy foreign minister under the unity government, said he believed that if Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi were to be released, she would support the decisions that it was making while she was detained.        在团结政府任副外长的莫梭乌表示,他相信,如果昂山素季获释,她会支持政府在她被拘期间做出的决策。
        “There were times during her house arrest in the 1990s and 2000s when the N.L.D. had to make decisions in her absence,” said Mr. Moe Zaw Oo, who once served as an aide to her. “Later, when she was out, she respected those decisions and understood that decisions had to be made under certain circumstances. So, this time again, I believe she will accept what the remaining N.L.D. leaders had to do.”        “上世纪90年代和21世纪初她被软禁期间,全国民主联盟必须在没有她的情况下做出决定,”曾担任她的助手的莫梭乌说。“后来获释后,她也尊重这些决定,并理解那都是在特定形势下必须做出的。所以这一次,我相信她会接受全国民主联盟的其他领导人不得不做的事情。”
        But Thinzar Shunlei Yi, a 30-year-old rights activist in Myanmar, said the revolution did not need Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi anymore because she “has done her part.”        但现年30岁的缅甸权利活动人士欣沙顺雷伊认为,革命不再需要昂山素季,因为她“已经完成了她的职责”。
        “We want to draft a new script for our country because the time has come,” she said. “Now this is the time for the younger generations and the ethnic leaders to take the leadership positions. Because the country is not just about one person. It’s about everyone.”        “我们想为我们的国家规划一个新的未来,因为是时候这么做了,”她说。“如今是年轻一代和少数民族领袖担任领导职务的时候了。因为这个国家不是某一个人的。它是我们每个人的。”
        U Khin Zaw Win, director of the Tampadipa Institute, a policy advocacy organization based in Yangon, Myanmar’s most populous city, said none of the measures promised by the National Unity Government would have happened under “the shadow of Aung San Suu Kyi.”        政策倡导组织坦帕迪巴研究所的所长钦佐温表示,若是在“昂山素季的阴影下”,民族团结政府所承诺的任何举措都不会实现。该研究所位于缅甸人口最多的城市仰光。
        He pointed out that she did not plan for a successor or bring new blood into the National League of Democracy, which he said was run like an “exclusive” club. Instead, she surrounded herself with advisers in their 70s and 80s.        他指出,她没有指定继任者或是为全国民主联盟带来新鲜血液的打算,在他看来,全国民主联盟的运作就像一个“闲人免进”的俱乐部。而她身边的顾问都是年至耄耋的老人。
        “Every day, day by day, Aung San Suu Kyi has less and less to do with the revolution,” said Mr. Khin Zaw Win. “The show can go on without her. It’s better for the show to go on without her.”        “日复一日,昂山素季与革命的关联越来越少,”钦佐温说道。“这台戏没她也能唱。最好是没她。”
                
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