早期研究显示奥密克戎致病症状可能较轻_OK阅读网
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早期研究显示奥密克戎致病症状可能较轻
Omicron Is Fast Moving, but Perhaps Less Severe, Early Reports Suggest

来源:纽约时报    2021-12-07 04:48



        JOHANNESBURG — The Covid-19 virus is spreading faster than ever in South Africa, the country’s president said Monday, an indication of how the new Omicron variant is driving the pandemic, but there are early indications that Omicron may cause less serious illness than other forms of the virus.        约翰内斯堡——南非总统周一表示,新冠病毒在该国的传播速度比以往任何时候都快,这表明新的奥密克戎变异株正在推动大流行,但有早期迹象表明,奥密克戎可能不像其他病毒变体那么容易导致重症。
        Researchers at a major hospital complex in Pretoria reported that their patients with the coronavirus are much less sick than those they have treated before, and that other hospitals are seeing the same trends. In fact, they said, most of their infected patients were admitted for other reasons and have no Covid symptoms.        比勒陀利亚一家大型医院综合体的研究人员报告称,他们的新冠病毒患者比以前收治的患者病情要轻得多,其他医院也存在同样的倾向。他们说,事实上,他们的大多数新冠患者都是因为其他原因入院的,并且未呈现新冠症状。
        But scientists cautioned against placing too much stock in either the potential good news of less severity, or bad news like early evidence that prior coronavirus infection offers little immunity to Omicron. The variant was discovered just last month, and more study is needed before experts can say much about it with confidence. Beyond that, the true impact of the coronavirus is not always felt immediately, with hospitalizations and deaths often lagging considerably behind initial outbreaks.        但科学家告诫称,不要在症状较轻这个潜在好消息上寄托太多希望,也不要轻信可能的坏消息——早期证据证明,先前感染带来的免疫力对奥密克戎作用有限。该变异株是上个月才发现的,专家还需要更多的研究才能有把握地谈论它。除此之外,新冠病毒的真正破坏力并不总是立即出现,住院和死亡人数往往远远晚于最初的暴发时间。
        Dr. Emily S. Gurley, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said of the signs that the variant is less severe, “It would not be shocking if that’s true, but I’m not sure we can conclude that yet.”        约翰斯·霍普金斯大学彭博公共卫生学院的流行病学家艾米丽·S·格利博士在谈到该变异株导致的症状较轻的迹象时说,“如果的确如此,那也不会令人感到惊讶,但我不确定我们现在就能得出结论。”
        In the absence of more hard information, governments have reacted to Omicron with sharp restrictions on international travel and new vaccination requirements. World leaders who were accused of responding too slowly or weakly earlier in the pandemic are eager to be seen as taking action, though some experts question whether the travel restrictions are an overreaction.        各国政府在缺乏更可靠信息的情况下对奥密克戎做出反应,严格限制国际旅行和新的疫苗接种要求。一些世界领导人被指责在大流行初期反应过慢或抗疫不力,他们渴望人们看到他们在采取行动,然而一些专家质疑限制旅行是否反应过度。
        The variant has spread rapidly and has been detected in more than 30 countries on six continents so far. Health officials and researchers say that it could be the most contagious form of the virus yet, and that it could soon displace the Delta variant that emerged last year as the predominant form. That has fueled fears that a world eager to emerge from two years of pandemic hardship could be headed into another cycle of illness, lockdown and economic suffering.        该变种传播迅速,迄今已在六大洲的30多个国家被发现。卫生官员和研究人员表示,它可能是迄今为止最具传染性的病毒形式,它可能很快取代去年出现的德尔塔变体,成为主流变异株。这加剧了人们的担忧,世界渴望从持续两年之久的大流行困境中解脱,却有可能再次进入疾病、封锁和经济困难的循环。
        In Europe, as in South Africa, there are early indications that Omicron cases may be fairly mild, if easy to contract.        和南非一样,欧洲也有早期迹象表明奥密克戎的病例症状可能相当轻微,但容易感染。
        In Britain, the government said Monday that the number of Omicron cases there had climbed to 336, two and a half times as many as on Friday. Denmark reported 261 cases, quadruple the number on Friday, and local media there have reported that a holiday lunch for high school students may have been a superspreader event, with dozens of people catching the new variant.        在英国,政府周一表示,那里的奥密克戎病例数已攀升至336例,是周五的两倍半。丹麦报告了261例,是周五的四倍,当地媒体报道称,一场为高中生举办的节假日午餐会可能是超级传播事件,有数十人感染了这种新变异株。
        Britain and Denmark do an unusually large amount of genomic sequencing of virus samples, to tell one variant from another and detect changes, which suggests that many Omicron cases in other countries are simply going undetected.        为了区分变异株并检测变化,英国和丹麦对病毒样本进行了不寻常的大规模基因组测序,结果显示其他国家有许多奥密克戎病例根本没有被发现。
        On Monday, the United States began requiring international travelers arriving in the country to provide proof of a negative coronavirus test taken no more than 24 hours before their flights, a standard that can be hard to meet. Previously, fully vaccinated travelers could show negative test results taken up to 72 hours before departure.        周一,美国开始要求抵达该国的国际旅客提供在航班起飞前24小时内进行的新冠病毒检测阴性证明,这样的要求很难达到。以前,完全接种疫苗的旅客可以出示出发前72小时内的阴性证明。
        China, a major part of the global travel and tourism economy, announced that to maintain its zero-Covid approach, it would keep international flights at 2.2 percent of pre-Covid levels during the winter. Since August, it has almost entirely stopped issuing new passports, and it requires arriving travelers to quarantine for 14 days and provide extensive paperwork and multiple virus tests.        作为全球旅行和旅游经济的重要组成部分的中国宣布,为了维持其清零政策,它将在冬季将国际航班保持在新冠前水平的2.2%。自8月以来,它几乎完全停止签发新护照,要求抵达的旅客隔离14天,并上交大量文件证明和多次病毒检测。
        In South Africa, where scientists say Omicron is already dominant, the pandemic is surging once again. A month ago, South Africa had fewer than 300 new virus cases a day; on Friday and again on Saturday, the figure was more than 16,000. It fell somewhat on Sunday and Monday, but that may be due a reporting lag often seen on weekends.        科学家称奥密克戎已经成为南非的主流变异株,那里的疫情再次暴发。一个月前,南非每天新增病毒病例不到300例;周五和周六,这一数字超过了1.6万。它在周日和周一有所下降,但这可能是由于周末经常出现报告滞后的情况。
        “As the country heads into a fourth wave of Covid-19 infections, we are experiencing a rate of infections that we have not seen since the pandemic started,” President Cyril Ramaphosa wrote in an open letter to the country. He added: “Nearly a quarter of all Covid-19 tests now come back positive. Compare this to two weeks ago, when the proportion of positive tests was sitting at around 2 percent.”        总统西里尔·拉马福萨在致国民的一封公开信中写道:“随着国家进入第四波新冠疫情,我们正在经历自大流行开始以来未有的感染率。”他还说:“现在,近四分之一的新冠病毒测试结果呈阳性。相比之下,在两周以前阳性率持续在2%。”
        A report released this weekend from doctors at the Steve Biko Academic and Tshwane District Hospital Complex in Pretoria, South Africa’s administrative capital, offers the strongest support yet for a more hopeful take on Omicron, though its author, Dr. Fareed Abdullah, gave reasons to be wary of drawing conclusions.        南非行政首都比勒陀利亚的史蒂夫·比科学院和茨瓦内地区医院综合大楼的医生本周末发布了一份报告,给相对乐观的看法提供了迄今为止最强有力的支持,尽管其作者法里德·阿卜杜拉博士表示不应过早下结论。
        Dr. Abdullah, director of the Office of H.I.V./Aids and Tuberculosis Research at the South African Medical Research Council, looked at the 42 patients with coronavirus who were in the hospital last Thursday, and found that 29 of them, 70 percent, were breathing ordinary air. Of the 13 using supplemental oxygen, four had it for reasons unrelated to Covid.        身为南非医学研究委员会艾滋病和结核病研究办公室主任的阿卜杜拉查看了上周四住院的42名新冠病毒患者的病情,发现其中29人,即70%,呼吸的是普通的空气。接受辅助供氧的13人中,有四人吸氧的原因与新冠无关。
        Only one of the 42 was in intensive care, in line with figures released last week by the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, showing that only 106 patients were in intensive care over the prior two weeks, despite the surge in infections.        这42名患者中只有一人在重症监护室,趋势与美国国家传染病研究所上周公布的数据一致,数据显示,尽管感染激增,但此前两周只有106名患者在重症监护室。
        Most of the patients were admitted “for diagnoses unrelated to Covid-19,” the report said, and their infection “is an incidental finding in these patients and is largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients.” It said that two other large hospitals in Gauteng Province, which includes Pretoria and Johannesburg, had even lower percentages of infected patients needing oxygen.        报告称,大多数患者因“与新冠病毒无关的诊断”而入院,这些感染是“偶然在这些患者身上发现的,主要源于医院对所有患者进行新冠检测的政策”。报告说,豪登省的另外两家大医院,包括比勒陀利亚和约翰内斯堡,需要吸氧的感染患者比例更低。
        Dr. Abdullah said in an interview that he had walked into a Covid ward and found a scene unrecognizable from previous phases of the pandemic, when it would have been full of the humming and beeping of oxygen machines.        阿卜杜拉在接受采访时说,他走进新冠病房时,眼前的场景与曾经的大流行阶段大相径庭,当时病房里充斥着氧气机的声音。
        “Out of 17 patients, four were on oxygen,” he said. “That’s not in a Covid ward for me, that’s like a normal ward.”        “在17名患者中,只有四名需要吸氧,”他说。“对我来说,那不是新冠病房,就是普通病房。”
        Dr. Gurley, of Johns Hopkins, noted that the severity of disease reflects not just the variant but also who it is infecting. Two years into the pandemic, far more people have some level of immunity to the virus through vaccination, natural infection, or both, and that could translate to milder cases.        约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的格利指出,疾病的严重程度不仅反映了这一变异株,还反映了它的感染者自身的情况。大流行两年后,通过疫苗接种、自然感染或两者兼有,更多的人对病毒具有一定程度的免疫力,这可能会转化为较轻的病例。
        “We don’t know how to read the genetic sequences to say exactly how this variant will play out,” she said. “We’re getting more information now from South Africa, which is a particular population with a particular profile of pre-existing immunity.”        “我们不知道如何阅读基因序列来确切说明这种变体将如何发挥作用,”她说。“我们现在从南非获得了更多信息,南非人是一个特定人群,具有特定的预先存在的免疫力。”
        Dr. Maria D. van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization’s technical lead for Covid, told CBS News on Sunday, that even if it turns out that a lower percentage of Omicron cases are serious, that could be balanced by a larger number of cases, meaning more hospitalizations and deaths.        世界卫生组织新冠技术负责人玛丽亚·D·范科克霍夫博士周日告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻,即使事实证明奥密克戎病例的重症比例较低,但这一点可能会通过感染更多病例而抵消,意味着更多的住院和死亡。
        Dr. Abdullah also looked at all 166 patients with the coronavirus who were admitted to the Biko-Tshwane complex between Nov. 14 and Nov. 29, and found that their average hospital stay was just 2.8 days, and fewer than 7 percent died. Over the previous 18 months, the average stay for such patients was 8.5 days, and 17 percent died. Shorter stays would mean less strain on hospitals.        阿卜杜拉还查看了11月14日至11月29日期间入住比科-茨瓦内综合大楼的所有166名新冠病毒患者,发现他们的平均住院时间仅为2.8天,死亡人数不到7%。在过去的18个月中,此类患者的平均住院时间为8.5天,其中17%死亡。住院时间更短意味着医院的压力更小。
        Eighty percent of the 166 patients were under age 50, and similar figures have been reported throughout Gauteng — a sharp contrast to earlier cohorts of hospitalized Covid patients, who were usually older. That could result from South Africa having a relatively high vaccination rate in people over 50 and a low rate in younger people, but one of the great unknowns about Omicron is whether existing vaccines offer strong protection against it.        166名患者中有80%年龄在50岁以下,整个豪登省都报告了类似的数字——这与早期住院的新冠人群形成鲜明对比,后者通常年龄较大。这可能是因为南非50岁以上人群的疫苗接种率相对较高,而年轻人的接种率较低,但现有疫苗是否能针对奥密克戎提供强有力的保护是该变异株的一大未知数。
        Part of the caution in interpreting Dr. Abdullah’s report is that the numbers in it are small, the findings have not been peer-reviewed, and he does not know how many of the patients had Omicron, as opposed to other variants of the coronavirus — though the government reported last week that it already accounted for three-quarters of virus samples in South Africa.        对阿卜杜拉的报告需要保持谨慎的部分原因是,报告中的样本很小,研究结果没有经过同行评审,而且他不知道有多少患者感染了奥密克戎,而不是其他冠状病毒变种——尽管政府上周报告说该毒株已经占南非病毒样本的四分之三。
        Dr. Abdullah acknowledged those drawbacks, and noted there could be a lag between Omicron first turning up and a rise in serious illness and deaths. But so far, despite the huge increase in cases, Covid deaths have not risen in South Africa.        阿卜杜拉承认这些不足之处,并指出奥密克戎首次出现后,重症和死亡人数上升可能存在滞后。但到目前为止,尽管病例大幅增加,但南非的新冠肺炎死亡人数并未上升。
                
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