恒大危机蔓延引发房企违约潮,北京将如何应对?_OK阅读网
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恒大危机蔓延引发房企违约潮,北京将如何应对?
As China’s Property Crisis Spreads, Beijing Says There’s Nothing to See

来源:纽约时报    2021-11-10 04:30



        When times were flush for the property developer China Fortune Land, it bought a trophy soccer club and recruited star athletes from Argentina. These days, the players with the club, Hebei F.C., are on indefinite leave because it can’t afford to keep the lights on.
        在强盛时期,房地产开发商华夏幸福收购了一家足球俱乐部以炫耀成功,还从阿根廷招募了明星球员。如今,河北足球俱乐部资金困难,无法运作下去,球员们正在无限期休假。
        The developer is one of a growing number facing financial strain in China, challenging the narrative from Beijing that it can keep the country’s corporate debt crisis under control while avoiding the disorderly collapse of its property giants.
        华夏幸福是中国越来越多面临财务压力的开发商之一,它们挑战了中国政府的叙事。北京称,在避免国内房地产巨头无序崩溃的同时,政府能够控制中国企业的债务危机。
        Global markets just weeks ago were fretting over the possible failure of China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted property developer. Central bankers and financial figures considered the impact that its more than $300 billion of unpaid debts would have on China’s economy if Beijing stuck to its commitment not to provide a bailout.
        仅在数周前,全球金融市场曾因中国恒大集团可能破产而焦躁不安。恒大是全球负债最多的房地产开发商。各国央行的官员们和金融市场都考虑过,如果中国政府坚持承诺不提供紧急财政援助的话,恒大超过2万亿元的未偿还债务会对中国经济造成什么影响。
        The tumult at Evergrande appeared to die down more recently after the company made payments on multimillion dollar bonds. But its financial woes have already set off a broader panic that has contributed to a wave of defaults among other developers. And their troubles are mounting.
        恒大支付了数百万美元的债券利息后,公司引发的骚动最近似乎有所平息。但其财务困境已引发了更广泛的恐慌,导致其他开发商的一波违约潮。而且,这些公司的麻烦仍在增长。
        Money is becoming harder to find because the cost of borrowing has soared, fewer people are buying apartments, and the value of property is falling. Property companies have $40 billion of payments to make to foreign investors alone over the next two months, according to one estimate.
        由于借贷成本飙升,买房的人越来越少,以及房产价值正在下降,钱已变得越来越难找到。据一项估计,中国房地产公司仅在未来两个月就需要向外国投资者支付400亿美元的债券利息。
        Kaisa Group, China’s first developer to default on overseas debt six years ago, told investors last week that it was facing “unprecedented pressure.” The stress to Chinese developers is so intense that the United States Federal Reserve flagged it as a potential risk to the American economy in a report this week.
        佳兆业集团是中国第一家出现海外债务违约的开发商,那是在六年前。上周该公司告诉投资者,公司正面临着“前所未有的压力”。鉴于中国开发商面临的压力如此之大,美国联邦储备银行在本周的一份报告中将这个问题列为美国经济的一个潜在风险。
        As Chinese real estate developers fail to meet their most basic financial obligations, experts are warning that Evergrande’s problems have already started to have a dangerous spillover effect. Evergrande and Beijing are managing the company’s struggles under a veil of secrecy, allowing it to meet some payment deadlines without explaining how.
        随着中国房地产开发商不能履行最基本的财务义务,专家警告,恒大的问题已开始产生危险的溢出效应。恒大和中国政府处理其困境的工作一直在秘而不宣地进行着,它在期限前支付了几笔利息,但没有解释钱是从哪里来的。
        The approach may stem panic, but it papers over broader pressures on the sector and an economy that has long turned to the property market to help power its growth.
        这种做法也许能遏制恐慌,但也暂时掩盖了房地产业和中国经济面临的更广泛压力。中国经济增长的动力长期以来一直来自房地产市场的帮助。
        “The fundamental situation for Evergrande hasn’t really changed,” said Matthew Chow, a China property analyst and director at S&P Global Ratings. “We remain sure that default is almost a certainty.”
        “恒大的基本情况并没有真正改变,”标普全球评级的中国房地产分析师兼董事马修·周说。“我们仍确信,违约几乎不可避免。”
        Another potentially devastating deadline for Evergrande approaches on Wednesday, when the grace period on $150 million worth of bond payments will end. It is unclear how Evergrande has been able to secure the money needed to make its recent payments when the company has no cash, no one is buying its apartments, and a very long line of creditors stands outside its doors.
        对恒大来说,另一个潜在的毁灭性最后期限是本周三,届时,恒大未按期支付的1.5亿美元债利息的宽限期将结束。目前尚不清楚恒大最近支付几笔利息所需的钱是从哪里来的,公司的现金已尽,没人购买它的公寓,公司门外的讨债者已排起了一条长队。
        More than a million home buyers are waiting for unfinished apartments, and the company may owe money to just as many construction workers and painters, landscapers and employees. Michael Yang, an Evergrande salesperson in the southern city of Chongqing, is one of them.
        100多万购房者仍在等待公寓完工,恒大也许还欠着同样数量的建筑工人、油漆工、园林工和雇员的钱。恒大在重庆的销售员迈克尔·杨就是其中之一。
        His monthly salary at Evergrande, including commission, used to be $3,900. But Mr. Yang said he received a notice last month informing him that, beginning in November, he would be suspended for a year with a minimum pay of $280 a month.
        他在恒大的工资(包括佣金)曾是每月2.5万元。但杨说,他上个月收到通知,公司将从11月开始让他停职一年,只发给他每月1800元的最低工资。
        “It’s not enough for me in Chongqing, for sure,” he said.
        “在重庆肯定不够啊,”他说。
        Mr. Yang said Evergrande told him and other colleagues that the money the company saved by not paying regular salaries would be used to finish construction on apartments that it had sold but not yet completed. The news was so discouraging, Mr. Yang said, that he has already started interviewing for new jobs, even though he and his new wife are planning to start a family.
        杨说,恒大告诉他和同事们,公司不付给他们正常工资省下来的钱,将用于完成已售出但尚未完工的公寓建设。杨先生说,这个消息太让人灰心了,他已开始面试新的工作,尽管他与自己新婚的妻子正打算建立家庭。
        “It suddenly disrupted my life plan,” he said. “I didn’t expect it to come so quickly.”
        “突然打乱了我的计划啊,”他说。“就是没想到来得那么快。”
        In the absence of information from Evergrande about how it will find the money to keep its operations going, China’s internet was briefly alight last month with reports that the authorities planned to force Evergrande’s billionaire founder, Xu Jiayin, to help pay some of the millions of people to whom the company owes money.
        在恒大不提供将如何找到更多钱来维持公司运转的情况下,上个月,一条引起轰动的报道曾短暂出现在中国的互联网上,报道称,当局打算强迫恒大创始人、亿万富翁许家印来帮助支付公司欠数百万人的钱。
        Evergrande would not confirm the reports, which were repeated in state media. Instead, it published photographs of a dozen development projects that it said had just been completed.
        恒大不愿证实这条后来也出现在官方媒体上的报道,而是公布了十几个开发项目的照片,称这些项目刚刚完成交付。
        “All employees of the group swear to ensure the construction of the project with the greatest determination and strength, and complete the delivery of the real estate with the highest quality and quantity,” Evergrande posted on one of its accounts on the social media app WeChat.
        恒大在公司的微信账号发帖写道:“集团上下全体员工誓以最大决心、最大力度确保工程建设,保质保量完成楼盘交付。”
        Chinese households don’t seem to be buying it. Across the country, property developers have warned of plummeting sales. Evergrande reported a 97 percent drop during its most recent sales period compared with a year ago. The fall in reported sales at Kaisa prompted Fitch to downgrade its rating of the company on Tuesday.
        中国的家庭似乎并不买账。全国各地的房地产开发商都已对销售暴跌发出了警告。恒大公布的最近一个销售期间的销售额与去年同期相比下降了97%。佳兆业公布的销售额下降,促使惠誉周二下调了该公司的评级。
        The Chinese authorities have tried to instill confidence and reassure investors by calling Evergrande’s risks manageable and pledging to ease China’s capital controls on the movement of money in and out of the country, which would help Evergrande and other property developers make payments to foreign creditors.
        中国当局试图培养信心,安抚投资者,称恒大的风险可控,还承诺放松中国对资金出入境的资本管制,这将有助于恒大和其他房地产开发商向外国债权人支付利息。
        The National Development and Reform Commission summoned some of the country’s biggest developers to a meeting in Beijing last month and called on them to make “active preparations” to meet payments to foreign investors. The regulator emphasized the importance of following “financial discipline and market rules.”
        上个月,国家发展和改革委员会召集国内几家最大的开发商在北京开会,要求它们“积极主动做好境外债券本息兑付准备”。该监管机构强调了“遵守财务纪律和市场规则”的重要性。
        While Beijing had previously indicated that it would not intervene to save Evergrande — part of a wider strategy to clean up the sector’s debt problem — the Chinese authorities have a history of quietly rescuing the country’s corporate giants. Before Evergrande, there was HNA, a conglomerate that started as an airline and grew on borrowed money to acquire Swissport, Ingram Micro and big stakes in Deutsche Bank and Hilton Hotels.
        尽管政府此前曾表示,不会出手拯救恒大——这是清理该行业债务问题的整体战略的一部分,但中国当局有悄悄拯救国内企业巨头的历史。恒大之前是海航集团。海航最初是一家航空企业,靠举债发展壮大,收购了瑞士国际空港服务有限公司、英迈,以及德意志银行和希尔顿酒店的大量股份。
        HNA eventually buckled under the weight of its unpaid bills. In February, it was placed into bankruptcy administration as the restructuring of its hundreds of subsidiaries happened in the background. Only the occasional story — like accusations that $10 billion had been embezzled from HNA’s corporate coffers, or that its top executives had been detained — brought the company back into public focus.
        海航最终被无力偿还的巨额债务压垮。今年2月,在它进入破产程序的同时,政府暗地里对其旗下的数百家子公司进行了重组。只是一些偶尔的报道——比如海航近100亿美元的资金被挪用的指控,或海航高管被拘——才让公司重新受到公众的关注。
        After months of silence, HNA said last month that its creditors had agreed to a solution for breaking it apart, without offering much more information.
        在沉默了几个月后,海航上月表示,债权人已同意了公司的重组方案,但没有提供更多信息。
        Like HNA, Evergrande has hired restructuring experts, but not much is known about whether the authorities plan to break up the company or who, if anyone, will be saved. Some Evergrande investors were given the opportunity to learn more about the company’s vast challenges during a recent meeting, but signed confidentiality agreements ordering them to keep the information secret ahead of a potential restructuring.
        与海航一样,恒大也聘请了重组专家,但人们对当局是否打算将恒大拆分、什么人(如果有的话)将获救等问题知之甚少。恒大的一些投资者在最近一次会上有机会对公司面临的巨大挑战有更多的了解,但他们都签署了保密协议,要求他们在可能的重组之前对信息保密。
        For the many people who have found their lives upended by the turmoil playing out in China’s property sector, it may be a very long time before they get answers. Lei Tenglong, an athlete with Hebei F.C., the soccer club owned by China Fortune Land, recently told state media that he and his teammates were in the dark about when they would return to the field.
        对许多发现自己的生活被中国房地产行业的动荡搅乱的人来说,他们可能需要很长时间才会得到答案。被华夏幸福收购的河北足球俱乐部的球员雷腾龙最近在一个官方媒体节目中说,他和队友们不知道什么时候会重返赛场。
        “We have no idea when our holidays will end,” he said.
        “队里现在的通知就是放假,”他说,“也没说什么时候归队。”
        
        
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