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| A crowd of migrants trying to cross a border has come to seem appallingly familiar in recent years. We have seen masses of desperate people seek refuge in strange lands: Syrians escaping civil war, the Rohingya brutally driven from Myanmar, Afghans fleeing Taliban rule. |
| 近年来，移民成群结队跨越边境的景象似乎变得令人异常熟悉。我们看到许许多多绝望的人在陌生的土地上寻求庇护：逃避内战的叙利亚人，被残忍赶出缅甸的罗辛亚人，逃离塔利班统治的阿富汗人。 |
| But the standoff at the border between Belarus and Poland, where thousands of migrants are camped in a freezing forest — and several have died — differs sharply from those crises in its origins, relative scale and implications. |
| 但在白俄罗斯和波兰边境的对峙中，成千上万的移民在寒冷的森林中扎营——数人已经死亡，其起源、相对的规模和影响方面，则与其他危机有很大不同。 |
| A Manufactured Emergency |
| 制造出来的紧急状况 |
| First, this appears to be an orchestrated crisis, created by Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, Belarus’s autocratic ruler, to cause trouble for the European Union. |
| 首先，这似乎是一场精心策划的危机，由白俄罗斯的专制统治者卢卡申科制造，目的是给欧盟添乱。 |
| Belarus allows little in the way of independent news media or political opposition. Lukashenko’s claim last year to have won re-election with 80 percent of the vote was widely seen as a farce, and hundreds of thousands of people protested. |
| 白俄罗斯几乎不允许有独立的新闻媒体或政治反对派。卢卡申科去年宣称以80%的选票赢得连任，被广泛视为一场闹剧，数十万人进行了抗议。 |
| The authorities suppressed the demonstrations with force. In response, the E.U. imposed sanctions on Belarus, which is not a member of the union, and Mr. Lukashenko dearly wants them lifted. |
| 当局动用武力镇压这些示威游行。作为回应，欧盟对非成员国白俄罗斯实施了制裁，卢卡申科迫切希望解除制裁。 |
| In recent months he has allowed in thousands of visitors who want to reach the much freer, wealthier countries of Western and Northern Europe. That means first getting into one of the E.U. member countries that border Belarus — Poland, Lithuania or Latvia. |
| 最近几个月，他允许成千上万希望前往更自由、更富裕的西欧和北欧国家的外国旅客入境。这意味着首先进入的是与白俄罗斯接壤的欧盟成员国波兰、立陶宛或拉脱维亚。 |
| The number of people flowing through Belarus grew sharply in August, most of them Afghans. It surged in the past month with people from Iraq and Syria, many of them ethnic Kurds. |
| 8月，过境白俄罗斯的人数急剧增加，其中大多数是阿富汗人。在过去的一个月里，来自伊拉克和叙利亚的人数激增，其中很多是库尔德人。 |
| Mr. Lukashenko and his government deny deliberately using migrants to unsettle the E.U. — while repeatedly threatening to do just that. But the evidence is compelling, starting with the country’s liberal granting of visas to people with one-way airline tickets to Minsk, the Belarusian capital. |
| 卢卡申科及其政府否认故意利用移民来扰乱欧盟，同时又反复威胁要这样做。但证据是令人信服的，首先是该国对持有前往白俄罗斯首都明斯克单程机票的人大方地发放签证。 |
| Some migrants have reported being taken to the E.U. borders by the Belarusian authorities, who have urged — or even forced — them to cross. They say these authorities gave them wire cutters to breach fences, helped tear down barriers and prevented them from returning to the cities. |
| 一些移民报告说，他们被白俄罗斯当局带到欧盟边境，当局敦促甚至强迫他们越境。他们说，当局给他们钢丝钳，让他们破坏围栏，帮助他们拆除障碍，并且阻止他们返回白俄罗斯城市。 |
| Playing Into European Politics |
| 对欧洲政坛的冲击 |
| As many as 4,000 migrants at a time have been camped at the Polish border, aid groups estimate, and there are perhaps 10,000 to 20,000 over all in Belarus — far fewer than the millions who fled Syria or the million forced out of Myanmar. |
| 援助组织估计，每次有多达4000名移民在波兰边境安营，白俄罗斯境内大约有1万到2万人，远远少于逃离叙利亚或被迫离开缅甸的数百万人。 |
| But the numbers are more than enough to set off tensions in Europe, where the politics of migration are raw. This is as much a political crisis as a migration one. |
| 但是这样的数字足以在欧洲引发紧张局势，因为这里的移民政治十分激烈。这既是一场移民危机，也是一场政治危机。 |
| The right-wing governing party in Poland has long called non-European migrants a threat to Polish culture and sovereignty, and its response to the current situation has been predictably heated. It describes the conditions as an attack by Belarus, and has deployed thousands of troops to keep migrants out. |
| 波兰右翼执政党长期以来一直称非欧洲移民是对波兰文化和主权的威胁，该党对当前局势的反应可想而知，是非常激烈的。该党将这种情况描述为白俄罗斯的攻击，并部署了数以千计的士兵阻止移民进入。 |
| In 2015-16, more than a million people, primarily Syrians, poured into Europe. The resulting backlash buoyed right-wing nationalists across the continent, and ever since, mainstream politicians have been loath to embrace immigration. |
| 2015到2016年，超过100万名难民涌入欧洲，其中以叙利亚人为主。由此产生的反弹令整个欧洲大陆的右翼民族主义者大受鼓舞，自那以后，主流政客就一直不愿接纳移民。 |
| Six years ago, some countries, notably Germany, welcomed migrants, while others, including Poland, refused to accept more than a few, clashing with E.U. leaders. But there was no danger of armed conflict between them. |
| 六年前，一些国家欢迎移民，尤其是德国；而波兰等国只肯接受少数移民，并与欧盟领导人发生冲突。但当时双方并没有发生武装冲突的危险。 |
| Now, no one is offering to take the migrants, even as they suffer through life-threatening conditions. The E.U. is united behind Poland, which is portraying itself as the first line of defense for the bloc, and Warsaw and Minsk have traded ominous threats. |
| 现在，没有人愿意收留移民，即使移民的生命受到威胁。欧盟团结在波兰背后，波兰把自己描绘成欧盟的第一道防线，华沙和明斯克互相威胁对方。 |
| Migrants, but Not Always Refugees |
| 移民，但不一定是难民 |
| Many of the Middle Easterners in Belarus are economic migrants who do not appear to qualify as refugees, though that does not make the danger they face — at least 11 have died in the cold — any less real. |
| 在白俄罗斯的许多中东人是经济移民，他们似乎不符合难民的条件，但这不意味着他们面临的危险是假的，目前至少已经有11人死于严寒。 |
| International accords define refugees as people with legitimate fears of violence or persecution, and give them a right to asylum. Many people in the migrant flood of 2015-16 were fleeing wars. |
| 国际协议将难民定义为对暴力或迫害有合理恐惧的人，并赋予他们受到庇护的权利。在2015到2016年的移民潮中，很多人是为了逃离战争。 |
| The repressive governments in Syria and Afghanistan still pose a severe threat to many of their people, but the wars there have quieted and Iraq is relatively secure. |
| 叙利亚和阿富汗的专制政府仍然对许多人构成严重威胁，但那里的战争已经平息，伊拉克也相对安全。 |
| But many of the people now in Belarus left Iraq and Syria seeking economic opportunity. They would not qualify for asylum. |
| 但目前在白俄罗斯的许多人离开伊拉克和叙利亚，是为了寻求经济机会。他们没有资格申请庇护。 |
| The Polish and Lithuanian authorities have reportedly abused migrants, forcing them back into Belarus without hearing their asylum claims, which rights groups say violates international law. Now the migrants are trapped in a potentially lethal clash. |
| 据报道，波兰和立陶宛当局虐待移民，在没有听取庇护申请的情况下强迫他们返回白俄罗斯，权利团体称这违反了国际法。现在，移民们陷入了一场可能丧命的冲突。 |
| “We became like a chicken in a cage in the hands of Belarusian and Polish police,” Bayar Awat, an Iraqi Kurd stuck at the border with his wife and infant daughter, said in a telephone interview. |
| “在白俄罗斯和波兰警察的手中，我们就像关在笼子里的鸡，”伊拉克库尔德人巴亚尔·阿瓦特在接受电话采访时说，他与妻子和幼女被困在边境。 |
| “One of them won’t let us go back to Minsk and the other won’t let us in,” he added. |
| “一个不让我们回明斯克，另一个不让我们进去，”他还说。 |
| A Shroud of Secrecy |
| 遮掩的面纱 |
| In contrast to many migrant crises, it has been all but impossible for outsiders to fully know what is happening. |
| 与许多移民危机不同，外人几乎不可能完全了解正在发生的事情。 |
| Poland and Lithuania have barred journalists and human rights groups from the borders, which include some of Europe’s wildest regions and few remaining primeval forests. |
| 波兰和立陶宛禁止记者和人权组织进入两国边境，这些边境包括欧洲一些最荒凉的地区和少数仅存的原始森林。 |
| Belarus also kept reporters away for weeks, but has begun giving them limited access, presenting itself as the humanitarian actor and Poland as the villain. |
| 白俄罗斯也曾将记者拒之门外达数周之久，但已开始允许他们有限度地进入，并把自己描绘成人道主义行动者，把波兰描绘成恶棍。 |
| The Polish authorities are engaged in a cat-and-mouse game with migrants along the roads and dirt tracks that run through the woods on their side of the border. Anti-immigrant sentiment in the region is strong; activists who try to help migrants have found their cars smashed. |
| 波兰当局在自己边境一侧的公路和穿过树林的土路上与移民进行猫捉老鼠的游戏。该地区的反移民情绪很强烈；试图帮助移民的活动人士的汽车被砸。 |
| Even so, aid groups and individuals have gone into the forests and villages just outside the two-mile-wide exclusion zone from which the Polish authorities have barred all nonresidents. They hang bags with food, water and other supplies from tree limbs for migrants to find. |
| 尽管如此，救援组织和个人还是进入了约3200米宽的隔离区外的森林和村庄。波兰当局禁止所有非居民进入隔离区。他们把装着食物、水和树枝上的其他物品的袋子挂起来，让移民们前去寻找。 |
| But they rarely see those they are trying to help, only the traces they leave behind — food wrappers, former campsites, paperwork in Arabic, and even a boarding pass for a flight from Damascus, Syria, to Minsk. |
| 但他们很少看到自己想要帮助的人，只能看到他们留下的痕迹——食品包装、扎营的痕迹、阿拉伯语的文件，甚至还有一张从叙利亚大马士革飞往明斯克的登机牌。 |
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