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| As the global economy heats up and tries to put the pandemic aside, a battle for the young and able has begun. With fast-track visas and promises of permanent residency, many of the wealthy nations driving the recovery are sending a message to skilled immigrants all over the world: Help wanted. Now. |
| 随着全球经济升温并努力摆脱疫情，一场争夺青年才俊的战斗已经开始。通过承诺快速签证和永久居留权，许多推动经济复苏的富裕国家正在向世界各地的技术移民发出一个信息：我们需要帮助。现在就要。 |
| In Germany, where officials recently warned that the country needs 400,000 new immigrants a year to fill jobs in fields ranging from academia to air-conditioning, a new Immigration Act offers accelerated work visas and six months to visit and find a job. |
| 在德国，官员们最近发出警告，该国每年需要40万新移民填补从学术到空调相关领域的工作岗位，一项新的移民法加快了工作签证的发放，并提供六个月的访问和找工作机会。 |
| Canada plans to give residency to 1.2 million new immigrants by 2023. Israel recently finalized a deal to bring health care workers from Nepal. And in Australia, where mines, hospitals and pubs are all short-handed after nearly two years with a closed border, the government intends to roughly double the number of immigrants it allows into the country over the next year. |
| 加拿大计划在2023年前向120万新移民提供居留权。以色列最近完成了一项从尼泊尔引进保健专业人员的协议。而在澳大利亚，由于边境关闭近两年，矿山、医院和酒吧都出现了人手短缺，政府计划在明年将允许进入该国的移民数量增加一倍左右。 |
| The global drive to attract foreigners with skills, especially those that fall somewhere between physical labor and a physics Ph.D., aims to smooth out a bumpy emergence from the pandemic. |
| 全球各国都在吸引有技能的外国人，尤其是那些介于体力劳动者和物理学博士之间的人，目的是平稳度过疫情后的艰难时期。 |
| Covid’s disruptions have pushed many people to retire, resign or just not return to work. But its effects run deeper. By keeping so many people in place, the pandemic has made humanity’s demographic imbalance more obvious — rapidly aging rich nations produce too few new workers, while countries with a surplus of young people often lack work for all. |
| 新冠疫情造成的破坏迫使许多人退休、辞职或干脆不回去工作。但它的影响更深远。由于把太多人留在原地，疫情加剧了人类的人口不平衡——迅速老龄化的富裕国家产生的新工人太少，而年轻人过剩的国家往往不能为所有人提供工作。 |
| New approaches to that mismatch could influence the worldwide debate over immigration. European governments remain divided on how to handle new waves of asylum seekers. In the United States, immigration policy remains mostly stuck in place, with a focus on the Mexican border, where migrant detentions have reached a record high. Still, many developed nations are building more generous, efficient and sophisticated programs to bring in foreigners and help them become a permanent part of their societies. |
| 解决这种不匹配的新方法可能会影响全球关于移民的辩论。欧洲各国政府在如何处理新一波寻求庇护者的问题上仍存在分歧。在美国，移民政策基本上仍然保持不变，重点是墨西哥边境，那里被拘留的移民人数创下历史新高。尽管如此，许多发达国家正在建立更慷慨、更高效、更精准的项目，以便引进外国人并帮助他们成为社会的永久组成部分。 |
| “Covid is an accelerator of change,” said Jean-Christophe Dumont, the head of international migration research for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or O.E.C.D. “Countries have had to realize the importance of migration and immigrants.” |
| “新冠疫情是变革的加速器，”经济合作与发展组织国际移民研究负责人让·克里斯托弗·杜蒙说。“各国必须意识到移民这件事和移民人口的重要性。” |
| The pandemic has led to several major changes in global mobility. It slowed down labor migration. It created more competition for “digital nomads” as more than 30 nations, including Barbados, Croatia and the United Arab Emirates, created programs to attract mobile technology workers. And it led to a general easing of the rules on work for foreigners who had already moved. |
| 疫情导致了全球流动性方面的若干重大变化。它减缓了劳动力迁移。巴巴多斯、克罗地亚和阿拉伯联合酋长国等30多个国家都推出了吸引移动技术工作者的项目，为“数字游牧者”创造了更多竞争。对于已经移民的外国人，他们的工作规定也得到了普遍放松。 |
| Many countries, including Belgium, Finland and Greece, granted work rights to foreigners who had arrived on student or other visas. Some countries, such as New Zealand, also extended temporary work visas indefinitely, while Germany, with its new Immigration Act, accelerated the recognition process for foreign professional qualifications. In Japan, a swiftly graying country that has traditionally resisted immigration, the government allowed temporary workers to change employers and maintain their status. |
| 包括比利时、芬兰和希腊在内，许多国家都给了持学生或其他签证入境的外国人工作权利。新西兰等国家也无限期延长了临时工作签证，而德国通过新的移民法加快了对外国专业资格的认可过程。人口迅速老龄化的日本在传统上一直抵制移民，现在政府允许临时工在保持身份的同时更换雇主。 |
| These moves — listed in a new O.E.C.D report on the global migration outlook — amounted to early warnings of labor market desperation. Humanitarian concerns seemed to combine with administrative uncertainty: How would immigration rules be enforced during a once-in-a-century epidemic? How would companies and employees survive? |
| 这些举措被列入经合组织一份新的全球移民前景报告中，它们相当于对劳动力市场绝望的早期警告。人道主义担忧似乎与行政上的不确定性结合在一起：在百年一遇的疫情期间，移民法规将如何执行？公司和员工如何生存？ |
| “Across the O.E.C.D., you saw countries treat the immigrant population in the same way as the rest of the population,” Mr. Dumont said. |
| “在整个经合组织，你可以看到各国对待移民和对待其他人口的方式是一样的，”杜蒙说。 |
| When it came time to reopen, fewer people appeared to care about whether immigration levels were reduced, as a poll in Britain showed earlier this year. Then came the labor shortages. Butchers, drivers, mechanics, nurses and restaurant staff — all over the developed world, there did not seem to be enough workers. |
| 今年早些时候英国的一项民意调查显示，到了重新开放的时候，似乎没什么人关心移民是否减少了。然后是劳动力短缺问题。屠夫、司机、机械师、护士和餐厅员工——在所有发达国家，似乎都没有足够的工人。 |
| In Britain, where Brexit has crimped access to immigrants from Europe, a survey of 5,700 companies in June found that 70 percent had struggled to hire new employees. In Australia, mining companies have scaled back earnings projections because of a lack of workers, and there are about 100,000 job openings in hospitality alone. On busy nights, dishwashers at one upscale restaurant in Sydney are earning $65 an hour. |
| 在英国，脱欧阻碍了从欧洲移民到英国的途径，6月对5700家公司的调查发现，70%的公司在招聘新员工时遇到了困难。在澳大利亚，由于缺少工人，矿业公司调低了收益预期，仅酒店业就有大约10万个职位空缺。在忙碌的夜晚，悉尼一家高档餐厅的洗碗工每小时能挣65美元。 |
| In the United States, where baby boomers left the job market at a record rate last year, calls for reorienting immigration policy toward the economy are getting louder. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has urged policymakers to overhaul the immigration system to allow more work visas and green cards. |
| 在美国，婴儿潮一代去年以创纪录的速度离开就业市场，要求根据经济情况调整移民政策的呼声越来越高。美国商会敦促政策制定者改革移民制度，允许发放更多的工作签证和绿卡。 |
| President Biden is trying first to unclog what’s already there. The administration’s $2.2 trillion social policy bill, if it passes a divided Senate, would free up hundreds of thousands of green cards dating back to 1992, making them available for immigrants currently caught up in a bureaucratic backlog. |
| 拜登总统试图首先解决已经存在的问题。政府2.2万亿美元的社会政策法案如果在分裂的参议院获得通过，可以释放出数十万张可追溯到1992年的绿卡，让目前受困于官僚主义积压的移民拿到绿卡。 |
| Many other countries are galloping further ahead. Israel, for example, has expanded its bilateral agreements for health workers. Inbal Mashash, director of the Israeli government’s program for managing foreign labor, noted that there were currently 56,000 immigrants, mostly from Asia, working in the country’s nursing care sector. And that may not be enough. |
| 其他许多国家也在大步向前。例如，以色列扩大了卫生工作者的双边协定。以色列政府外籍劳工管理项目主任英巴尔·马沙什指出，目前有5.6万名移民在该国的护理行业工作，其中大部分来自亚洲。而这可能还不够。 |
| “The state keeps asking itself where it wants to take this,” she said. “Do we want 100,000 foreign workers, in the nursing care sector alone, by 2035?” |
| “政府一直在问自己，在这个问题上想做到什么程度，”她说。“我们希望到2035年，仅仅在护理行业就有10万名外国工人吗？” |
| In advanced economies, the immigration measures being deployed include lowering barriers to entry for qualified immigrants, digitizing visas to reduce paperwork, increasing salary requirements to reduce exploitation and wage suppression, and promising a route to permanent status for workers most in demand. |
| 在发达经济体，正在部署的移民措施包括降低符合条件的移民的入境壁垒、签证数字化以减少文书工作、提高工资要求以减少剥削和工资压制，并承诺为需求最大的领域的工人提供获得永久身份的途径。 |
| Portugal’s digital nomads can stay as long as they want. Canada, which experienced its fifth consecutive year of declining births in 2020, has eased language requirements for residency and opened up 20,000 slots for health workers who want to become full residents. New Zealand recently announced that it would grant permanent visas, in a one-time offer, to as many as 165,000 temporary visa holders. |
| 葡萄牙的数字游民想停留多久都可以。加拿大在2020年经历了连续第五年出生率下降后，放宽了语言要求，并为希望成为正式居民的卫生工作者开放了2万个名额。新西兰最近宣布将一次性向多达16.5万名临时签证持有人颁发永久签证。 |
| One of the sharpest shifts may be in Japan, where a demographic time bomb has left diapers for adults outselling diapers for babies. After offering pathways to residency for aged-care, agriculture and construction workers two years ago, a Japanese official said last week that the government was also looking to let other workers on five-year visas stay indefinitely and bring their families. |
| 最明显的转变之一可能是在日本。日本面对着一颗人口定时炸弹，成人纸尿裤的销量超过了婴儿纸尿裤。该国在两年前为老年护理、农业和建筑工人提供居留途径，在上周，一名日本官员表示，政府还希望让其他持有五年签证的工人可以无限期居留并带上他们的家人。 |
| “It’s a war for young talent,” said Parag Khanna, the author of a new book called “Move,” who has advised governments on immigration policy. “There is a much clearer ladder and a codification of the tiers of residency as countries get serious about the need to have balanced demographics and meet labor shortages.” |
| 近日出版了《迁徙》一书的帕拉格·卡纳曾为政府提供移民政策建议，他说：“这是一场争夺年轻人才的战争。随着各国开始认真对待平衡人口结构和应对劳动力短缺的必要性，移民途径正在明确起来，居住等级在法典化。” |
| For the countries where immigrants often come from, the broader openness to skilled migration poses the risk of a brain drain, but also offers a release valve for the young and frustrated. |
| 对于移民流出大国来说，对技术移民更广泛的接纳带来了人才外流的风险，但也为年轻一代和对社会不满的人提供了一个解脱的窗口。 |
| Countries like Germany are eager to welcome them: Its vaunted vocational system, with strict certifications and at-work training, is increasingly short-handed. |
| 德国等国家热切地欢迎他们：其引以为豪的职业体系——拥有严格的认证和在职培训——越来越缺人手。 |
| “During the coronavirus crisis, the system has really collapsed,” said Holger Bonin, research director for the IZA Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn. “We’ve seen the lowest number of apprenticeship contracts since German unification.” |
| “在新冠病毒危机期间，这个系统真的崩溃了，”波恩IZA劳动经济学研究所研究主任霍尔格·博宁说。“我们遭遇了自德国统一以来学徒合同数量的最低点。” |
| Young Germans increasingly prefer to attend universities, and the country’s labor force is shrinking. According to a newly released study by the German Economic Institute, Germany will lose five million workers in the next 15 years — a full 3.2 million by 2030. |
| 年轻的德国人越来越倾向于上大学，而该国的劳动力正在萎缩。根据德国经济研究所最新发布的一项研究，德国将在未来15年内失去500万工人——到2030年将减少320万。 |
| Immigrants have become a stopgap. Around 1.8 million people with a refugee background lived in Germany as of three years ago. And over time, the country has tried to improve how it integrates both asylum seekers and foreigners with work visas. |
| 移民已成为权宜之计。截至三年前，约有180万有难民背景的人居住在德国。在这段时间里，该国曾试图改善让寻求庇护者和有工作签证的外国人融入社会的方式。 |
| On a recent morning at Bildungskreis Handwerk, a regional training hub in Dortmund, near the Dutch border, around 100 trainees shuffled down the linoleum-floored corridors of a five-story building in a quiet residential area. In classrooms and work spaces, they learned to be professional hairdressers, electricians, carpenters, welders, painters, plant mechanics, cutting machine operators and custodial engineers. |
| 最近的一个早晨，在靠近荷兰边境的多特蒙德地区职业培训中心安静的居住区里，大约100名学员走在一座五层楼房的油毡地板走廊上。在教室和工作间，他们学习成为专业美发师、电工、木匠、焊工、油漆工、车间机械师、切割机操作员和清洁维修管理员。 |
| The costs for 24- to 28-month programs are covered by the local government employment office, which also pays for apartment and living expenses. To get in, candidates must first take an integration course and a language course — also paid for by the German government. |
| 时长24至28个月的课程的费用由当地政府就业办公室承担，该办公室还支付公寓和生活费用。要进入培训中心，候选人必须首先参加移民融入课程和语言课程——同样由德国政府支付费用。 |
| “At this point, it doesn’t matter which of our departments graduates our trainees — trained workers are desperately sought in almost any domain,” said Martin Rostowski, the deputy director of the center. |
| 该中心副主任马丁·罗斯托夫斯基说：“在这一点上，让我们的学员从哪个部门毕业并不重要——几乎所有领域都迫切需要训练有素的工人。” |
| Serghei Liseniuc, 40, who came to Germany from Moldova in 2015, has started training as a plant mechanic, which will soon bring him stable work and higher wages. “We are a bit like doctors,” he said. “Doctors help people, and we help buildings.” |
| 2015年从摩尔多瓦来到德国的谢尔盖·利塞纽克现年40岁，已经开始接受车间机械师培训，这将为他带来稳定的工作和更高的工资。“我们有点像医生，”他说。“医生帮助人，我们帮助建筑。” |
| But despite the gains for some workers and some locations, economists and demographers argue that labor market gaps will linger and widen, as the pandemic reveals how much more needs to be done to manage a global imbalance not just in population but also in development. |
| 尽管一些工人和一些地方受益，但经济学家和人口统计学家认为，劳动力市场的差距将持续存在并扩大，因为要管理的不仅是全球人口方面的失衡，还有发展方面的失衡，而大流行揭示了在这方面还需要做大量工作。 |
| One question perhaps runs like a cold-water current just beneath the new warm welcome: What if there are not enough qualified workers who want to move? |
| 在热情欢迎的背后，一直暗藏着一个冰冷的问题：如果没有足够多合格的工人想移民，怎么办？ |
| “We’re hearing the same thing from everywhere,” said Mr. Dumont, the O.E.C.D researcher. “If you want to attract new workers, you need to offer them attractive conditions.” |
| “我们在各地都听到了同样的话，”经合组织研究员杜蒙说。“如果你想吸引新员工，你需要为他们提供有吸引力的条件。” |
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