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| BERLIN — Olaf Scholz succeeded in his campaign to become the next chancellor of Germany primarily by convincing voters that he would be very much like the towering and long-serving figure he will replace: Angela Merkel. | 柏林——奥拉夫·肖尔茨能够成功胜选成为德国下一任总理，主要是靠让选民相信，他会很像他即将接替的那位长期任职的杰出前任：安格拉·默克尔。 |
| Terse, well-briefed and abstaining from any gesture of triumph, Mr. Scholz not only sounded like the outgoing conservative chancellor, he perfected the art of embodying her aura of stability and calm to the point of holding his hands together in her signature diamond shape. | 肖尔茨不仅听起来像即将离任的保守派总理——简明扼要，对形势了如指掌，对胜利的姿态保持克制——还完美地展现了她沉稳冷静的气场，甚至双手做出她标志性的菱形手势。 |
| “He’s like a soccer player who studied videos of another player and changed his game,” said Robin Alexander, a long-term political observer of both Ms. Merkel and Mr. Scholz. “From temperament and political style all the way down to facial expression Scholz now channels Merkel. If Scholz was a woman he would wear pantsuits.” | “他就像一个足球运动员，研究了另一个球员的视频，并依此改变了他的比赛方式，”观察默克尔和肖尔茨多年的罗宾·亚历山大说。“肖尔茨现在从气质和政治风格到面部表情都让人想起默克尔。如果肖尔茨是女性，他会穿裤装。” |
| As Mr. Scholz unveiled his new center-left government on Wednesday and prepares to take office next month, one question for Germany and for the whole of Europe and the world is: Can he deliver and fill Ms. Merkel’s very big shoes? | 在肖尔茨周三公布新的中左翼政府并准备下个月就职之际，德国、整个欧洲乃至全世界都面临的一个问题是：他能否兑现承诺，成为默克尔的合格替代者？ |
| Rarely has a German leader come into office with so many burning crises. | 很少有德国领导人在上台时面临如此多的危机。 |
| As soon as he is sworn in as chancellor in early December, Mr. Scholz will have to deal with a surging pandemic, tensions at the Polish-Belarussian border, a Russian president mobilizing troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, a more confrontational China and a less dependable United States. | 肖尔茨将在12月初宣誓就任总理，之后马上就要应对不断蔓延的大流行、波兰和白俄罗斯边境的紧张局势、俄罗斯总统在乌克兰东部边境的军事调动、对抗性日益增强的中国，以及不再那么可靠的美国。 |
| “The pressure is huge,” said Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The new government is taking office in a situation that has been heating up on multiple fronts. And when it comes to foreign policy, Olaf Scholz remains a bit of an enigma.” | “这是巨大的压力，”欧洲外交关系委员会的亚娜·普列林说。“新政府上任之际，许多方面都处于白热化。在外交政策上，奥拉夫·肖尔茨仍然是个谜。” |
| Indeed, which Olaf Scholz will show up as chancellor in two weeks is a matter of intense speculation. A lifelong Social Democrat, Mr. Scholz, 63, has been a familiar face in German politics for more than two decades and served in two governments led by Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party, most recently as her finance minister. | 的确，将在两周后出任总理的奥拉夫·肖尔茨会以什么面貌出现，是一个充满不确定性的问题。作为一名终身社会民主党人，20多年来，现年63岁的肖尔茨是德国政界的熟悉面孔，他曾在默克尔的基督教民主党领导的两个政府中任职，上一个职位是财政部长。 |
| But he has also been something of a political chameleon, a pragmatic politician who straddles left and right so easily it is sometimes hard to know where he stands. | 但他也有点像政治变色龙，一位务实的政治家，他很容易左右跨界，有时很难知道他的立场。 |
| Born in Osnabrück, northern Germany, Mr. Scholz grew up in Hamburg, the city he would later run as mayor. His grandfather was a railway man, his parents worked in textiles. He and his brothers were the first in his family to go to university. | 肖尔茨出生于德国北部的奥斯纳布吕克，在汉堡长大，后来担任了该市的市长。他的祖父是一名铁路工人，父母在纺织业工作。他和兄弟们是家族中第一辈上大学的人。 |
| He was still in high school when he joined the Social Democrats. A fiery young Socialist, he spent a decade as a labor lawyer defending workers threatened by factory closures. Then, as secretary-general of his party under the last center-left administration of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, he defended painful labor market reforms with a machine-like efficiency that earned him the nickname “Scholzo-mat.” | 加入社会民主党时，他还是一名高中生。作为热情洋溢的年轻社会主义者，他做了10年劳工律师，为因工厂关闭而遭受威胁的工人辩护。然后，在上一届中左翼总理格哈德·施罗德执政期间，肖尔茨作为他所在政党的秘书长，以机器般的效率为劳动力市场的艰苦改革辩护，这为他赢得了“机器人肖尔茨”的绰号。 |
| When he was first elected into Parliament he sat with the left wing of his party. Today he is considered to be to the right of much of its base — not unlike President Biden in the United States, with whom he is sometimes compared. | 第一次被选入议会时，他与党内左翼为伍。今天，他被认为是其党派基本盘中的右翼——与美国的拜登总统很相似，人们有时会将他与拜登总统相提并论。 |
| But like with Biden, some see some leftist reflexes. | 但就像拜登一样，有人认为他有一些左派的表现。 |
| Mr. Scholz lost his party’s leadership contest to a pair of leftists two years ago, but surprised and impressed some of his fiercest critics in his own party when he pulled out a “bazooka” of hundreds of billions of euros in state aid to help struggling workers and businesses during the pandemic. | 两年前，肖尔茨在党内领导权争夺中输给了两位左翼人士，但当他拿出了“巴祖卡火箭筒一般的”数千亿欧元政府援助，以帮助大流行期间陷入困境的工人和企业时，党内一些最看不上他的批评者也感到惊讶和佩服。 |
| Some hope that this — and his election campaign theme centered on respect for the working classes — was proof that the youthful idealist who mellowed into a post-ideological centrist might be turning more radical again in his 60s. | 一些人希望这一举动，以及他以尊重劳动阶层为中心的竞选主题，能够证明肖尔茨——曾经的年轻理想主义者，逐渐发展为后意识形态中间派——可能在60多岁时再次变得更加激进。 |
| “The bazooka was a big moment,” said Kevin Kühnert, an outspoken left-winger and one of the Social Democrats’ deputy leaders. “It was the belated peace with his party. And it was the beginning of a deeper social transformation he’s hoping for.” | “巴祖卡援助是一个重要时刻，”常有大胆言论的左翼社会民主党副党魁之一凯文·库纳特说。“他和他的党早就应该达成这样的和平。这是他所希望的更深层次社会变革的开始。” |
| Mr. Scholz, who reportedly lost 12 kilograms, about 26 pounds, and stopped drinking alcohol ahead of the election, has long been underestimated. He has always played a long game. His ambition to become chancellor dates back to 2011, according to a close ally. | 肖尔茨长期以来一直被低估。据报道，他在选举前减掉了12公斤，并停止了饮酒。他一直在打一场持久战。据一位亲密盟友称，他成为总理的抱负可以追溯到2011年。 |
| Even political opponents speak admiringly of his political instinct, his stamina and quiet self belief. Three years ago, when his party’s approval ratings were hovering near record lows, he told The New York Times that the Social Democrats would win the next election. | 就连政敌也对他的政治本能、毅力和从容自信赞不绝口。三年前，当他所在政党的支持率徘徊在历史低点附近时，他告诉《纽约时报》，社会民主党将赢得下一次选举。 |
| Like Ms. Merkel, he has a reputation for being a safe pair of hands and a decent person with a bipartisan aura. | 和默克尔一样，他也被认为是一个可靠的人，是个得到两党拥护的正派人。 |
| “Merkel is beyond party-politics, she is the voice of reason,” said Mr. Alexander, who wrote a best-selling book on the end of the Merkel era. “Being the center of politics as a person, that’s what Merkel did so masterfully and that’s what Scholz is aiming for.” | “默克尔超越了党派政治，她是理性的声音，”写过一本关于默克尔时代终结的畅销书的亚历山大说。“以个人身份成为政治中心，这是默克尔做得非常出色的地方，这也是肖尔茨的目标。” |
| That political flexibility may now make him the perfect leader to tackle what may be his abiding challenge as chancellor — keeping the peace in an unusual and untested three-way coalition with two ideologically divergent parties: the progressive Greens, who want to spend 50 billion euros, or about $56 billion, on a green transition, and the pro-market Free Democrats, who will control the finance ministry and with it the purse strings. | 这种政治上的灵活性目前可能使他成为最佳领导人，得以解决他总理任期内所面临的长期挑战——同绿党和自由民主党这两个意识形态不同的政党组成一个不同寻常且未经考验的三方联盟，并且维持它的和平。进步的绿党希望花费500亿欧元（约合560亿美元、3600亿人民币）进行绿色转型，而亲市场的自由民主党将控制财政部和财政大权。 |
| But Mr. Scholz also runs the risk of satisfying no one. Just how absorbed he gets in having to balance conflicting demands at home, observers say, could affect his ability to push through his government’s ambitious agenda to prepare Germany for a carbon-neutral future and a digital age. | 但肖尔茨也面临会让所有人都不满意的风险。观察人士说，他必须平衡国内相互矛盾的要求，他在这方面的投入可能会影响他推动政府实现宏大议程的能力，该议程旨在让德国为碳中和的未来和数字时代做好准备。 |
| It will also determine how large a role Germany can play abroad. If Mr. Scholz gets too distracted by internal tensions, Europe and the world are bound to feel the loss of Ms. Merkel’s leadership, analysts predict. | 这还将决定德国在海外能发挥多大的作用。分析人士预测，如果肖尔茨被内部紧张局势分散了注意力，欧洲和世界必将感到失去默克尔的那种领导力。 |
| But if things go smoothly, Mr. Scholz’ Germany could turn out to be a pivotal power for European cohesion, for more trans-Atlantic unity on fighting climate change and for confronting strategic competitors like China and Russia, and, some hope, for a revival of social democracy in different parts of the world. | 但是如果进展顺利，肖尔茨的德国可能会成为欧洲凝聚力的关键力量，在应对气候变化和对抗中国和俄罗斯等战略竞争对手方面实现更多的跨大西洋团结，并且如一些人所愿，能在世界不同地区实现社会民主的复兴。 |
| Foreign policy was barely discussed in the election campaign but along with the pandemic it might well end up dominating the first months of the new administration. Germany is taking over the presidency of the Group of 7 in January and Mr. Scholz will immediately have the spotlight on him on a host of pressing international questions. | 在竞选活动中，外交政策几乎没有被讨论过，但它与疫情问题很可能会在新政府的头几个月占据主导地位。德国将于明年1月接任七国集团轮值主席国，肖尔茨很快将在一系列紧迫的国际问题上成为人们关注的焦点。 |
| As a result, Mr. Scholz will focus his energy on strengthening the European Union, his advisers say. His first foreign visit will be to President Emmanuel Macron in France, who faces his own difficult election campaign next year. Supporting Mr. Macron, who is taking over the European Union’s rotating presidency in January, is one goal. | 因此，他的顾问说，肖尔茨将把精力集中在加强欧盟上。他的首次外交访问将是出访法国，会见总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙，后者明年将会面临艰难的竞选活动。支持将于明年1月接任欧盟轮值主席的马克龙是肖尔茨的一个目标。 |
| “A sovereign Europe is the key to our foreign policy,” Mr. Scholz said on Wednesday. “As the economically strongest and most populous country in the heart of Europe it is our duty to make this sovereign Europe possible, to promote it and advance it.” | “一个主权完整的欧洲是我们外交政策的关键，”肖尔茨在周三说。“作为欧洲中心地区经济实力最强、人口最多的国家，我们有责任让这个主权欧洲成为可能，促进它并推进它。” |
| Few analysts expect the new chancellor to change course significantly from Ms. Merkel, who took him along to her last Group of 20 meeting last month and introduced him to a number of world leaders, including President Biden. | 几乎没有分析人士预计这位新总理会大幅改变默克尔的路线。上个月，默克尔带着他参加了最后一次20国集团会议，并把他介绍给了包括拜登总统在内的多位世界领导人。 |
| “Don’t expect too much change,” Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman of the Social Democrats, said last weekend. | “不要期待太多变化，”社会民主党外交政策发言人尼尔斯·施密德上周末表示。 |
| To those of Germany’s allies who are hoping for a much more robust stance on China and Russia and an increase in military spending that promise of continuity may be only partly reassuring. | 对于希望德国在中俄问题上采取更强硬立场，并增加军费开支的盟国来说，这种关于连续性的承诺或许只能让人在一定程度上放心。 |
| But with so many fires burning on the international stage and some structural geopolitical shifts underway, circumstances — and his more hawkish coalition partners — might force the new chancellor’s hand, said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff of the German Marshall Fund. | 但德国马歇尔基金会的托马斯·克莱恩-布罗克霍夫表示，由于国际舞台上麻烦不断，一些结构性的地缘政治变化正在进行，环境——以及他那些更鹰派的联盟伙伴——可能会迫使这位新总理采取行动。 |
| One of the first tests Mr. Scholz will face is how to deal with Poland, which has violated some of the democratic principles of E.U. membership but is also under pressure from neighboring Belarus, a Russian ally that has been funneling migrants to the Polish border in an apparent attempt to destabilize the bloc. | 肖尔茨面临的第一个考验是如何与波兰打交道。这个国家违反了加入欧盟的一些民主原则，但也受到邻国白俄罗斯的压力，后者是俄罗斯的盟国，一直在向波兰边境输送移民，看起来是意图破坏欧盟的稳定。 |
| Mr. Scholz’ Social Democrats are traditionally dovish on Russia, supporting projects like the divisive Nordstream II gas pipeline. But if Moscow launches another offensive in Ukraine, it would be another significant test. | 肖尔茨的社会民主党传统上对俄罗斯持鸽派立场，支持存在分歧的北溪二号天然气管道等项目。但如果莫斯科再次对乌克兰发动进攻，这将是另一个重大考验。 |
| On China, the picture is more complicated. | 在中国问题上，情况更为复杂。 |
| The Social Democrats have signaled that Mr. Scholz would not turn hawkish overnight and close ranks with the United States. | 社会民主党已经发出信号，肖尔茨不会在一夜之间转变为鹰派，并与美国保持一致。 |
| “If you look at Merkel’s China policy, I think that Olaf Scholz will be more similar to this than U.S. policy toward China,” Lars Klingbeil, secretary-general of the Social Democrats and a close ally of Mr. Scholz, said last month. | “相比美国的对华政策，我认为奥拉夫·肖尔茨的对华政策会和默克尔更相似，”肖尔茨的亲密盟友、社会民主党秘书长拉尔斯·克林贝尔上个月说。 |
| But as Beijing has become more confrontational and German industry more outspoken about its dependency on the Chinese market, Germany’s China policy is ripe for evolving from the mercantilist soft touch of the Merkel era, analysts say. | 但分析人士表示，随着北京变得更具对抗性，德国产业界也越来越直白地谈及对中国市场的依赖，德国对华政策已经是时候摆脱默克尔时代重商主义的轻拿轻放。 |
| “Scholz has clout and he will gain further clout in office,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist of Berenberg Bank. “He has the potential to be a strong leader with international standing — as long as he keeps his coalition together.” | “肖尔茨有影响力，而且在任期内，他影响力还会进一步增强，”贝伦贝格银行首席经济学家霍尔格·施米丁表示。“只要他能保持联盟的团结，他就有潜力成为一个具有国际地位的强大领导人。” |
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