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| A scientist who has pored over public accounts of early Covid-19 cases in China reported on Thursday that an influential World Health Organization inquiry had most likely gotten the early chronology of the pandemic wrong. The new analysis suggests that the first known patient sickened with the coronavirus was a vendor in a large Wuhan animal market, not an accountant who lived many miles from it. | 周四，一位科学家在研究了早期新冠病例在中国的公开记录后发表一份报告，称世界卫生组织的一项调查对大流行的时序研究很有可能存在错误。新的分析表明，第一名已知的新冠病人是武汉一家大型动物市场的商贩，而不是在该市场数公里之外的某地居住的一名会计。 |
| The report, published on Thursday in the prestigious journal Science, will revive, though certainly not settle, the debate over whether the pandemic started with a spillover from wildlife sold at the market, a leak from a Wuhan virology lab or some other way. The search for the origins of the greatest public health catastrophe in a century has fueled geopolitical battles, with few new facts emerging in recent months to resolve the question. | 这份于周四发表在权威期刊《科学》上的报告将重启——尽管仍不能解决——一场争议，即大流行是始于在市场出售的野生动物导致的溢出，还是武汉一所病毒实验室的泄漏，或是其他什么方式。这场百年来最严重的公共卫生灾难从何而来，已经成为一个加剧地缘政治冲突的问题，但近几个月来，很少见到有助于解答疑问的新信息出现。 |
| The scientist, Michael Worobey, a leading expert in tracing the evolution of viruses at the University of Arizona, came upon timeline discrepancies by combing through what had already been made public in medical journals, as well as video interviews in a Chinese news outlet with people believed to have the first two documented infections. | 发表报告的科学家迈克尔·伍罗贝是亚利桑那大学病毒演化追踪领域的权威，他对疫情时间线的梳理，依据的是在医学期刊中已有的公开资料，以及一家中国新闻媒体对据信是最早得到记录的两名感染病患的视频访谈。 |
| Dr. Worobey argues that the vendor’s ties to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as well as a new analysis of the earliest hospitalized patients’ connections to the market, strongly suggest that the pandemic began there. | 伍罗贝提出，那位与华南海鲜批发市场有关联的商贩，以及对最初一批与市场有关的入院病患的分析，都强烈表明大流行始于该市场。 |
| “In this city of 11 million people, half of the early cases are linked to a place that’s the size of a soccer field,” Dr. Worobey said. “It becomes very difficult to explain that pattern if the outbreak didn’t start at the market.” | “在一座有1100万人口的城市，一半的早期病例跟一个足球场大小的地方有关联，”伍罗贝说。“如果疫情暴发不是始于这个市场，那就很难解释这个现象了。” |
| Several experts, including one of the pandemic investigators chosen by the W.H.O., said that Dr. Worobey’s detective work was sound and that the first known case of Covid was most likely a seafood vendor. | 多位专家表示伍罗贝的侦查工作是扎实的，其中包括一位受世卫组织委托的大流行调查人员，他们认为第一个已知新冠病例很有可能是一名海鲜商贩。 |
| But some of them also said the evidence was still insufficient to decisively settle the larger question of how the pandemic began. They suggested that the virus probably infected a “patient zero” sometime before the vendor’s case and then reached critical mass to spread widely at the market. Studies of changes in the virus’s genome — including one done by Dr. Worobey himself — have suggested that the first infection happened in roughly mid-November 2019, weeks before the vendor got sick. | 但他们中的一些人也认为，现有的证据仍不足以对大流行源起这个更大的问题给出确凿答案。他们提出，病毒有可能在该商贩病例之前的某个时间感染了一名“零号病人”，然后在市场达到了大范围传播的临界点。对病毒基因组变化的研究——其中包括伍罗贝自己的一项研究——显示，最早的感染大致上发生在2019年11月中旬，也就是该商贩得病几周前。 |
| “I don’t disagree with the analysis,” said Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center. “But I don’t agree that any of the data are strong enough or complete enough to say anything very confidently, other than that the Huanan Seafood Market was clearly a super-spreading event.” | “我对这个分析并无异议，”弗雷德·哈钦森癌症研究中心的病毒学家杰斯·布鲁姆说。“但我认为这些数据都不够有力或完整，因此除了华南海鲜市场显然是一个超级传播事件以外，对其他的结论仍然不太有信心。” |
| Dr. Bloom also noted that this was not the first time the W.H.O. report, done in collaboration with Chinese researchers, was found to contain mistakes, including errors involving early patients’ potential links to the market. | 布鲁姆还指出，在世卫组织与中国研究人员合作得出的这份报告中，这已经不是第一次发现错误，包括初期病患与市场存在的潜在关联。 |
| “It’s just kind of mind-boggling that in all of these cases, there keep being inconsistencies about when this happened,” he said. | “有这么多病例，在时间问题上仍然不断出现前后不一致的情况，这很难理解，”他说。 |
| ‘The Mistake Lies There’ | “这是出问题的地方” |
| Toward the end of December 2019, doctors at several Wuhan hospitals noticed mysterious cases of pneumonia arising in people who worked at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, a dank and poorly ventilated space where seafood, poultry, meat and wild animals were sold. On Dec. 30, public health officials told hospitals to report any new cases linked to the market. | 2019年12月底，武汉几家医院的医生注意到一些在华南海鲜批发市场工作的人出现了神秘的肺炎病例。该市场潮湿且通风不良，出售海鲜、家禽、肉类和野生动物。12月30日，公共卫生官员要求医院报告与该市场有关的新病例。 |
| Fearing a replay of SARS, which emerged from Chinese animal markets in 2002, Chinese officials ordered the Huanan market closed, and Wuhan police officers shut it down on Jan. 1, 2020. Despite those measures, new cases multiplied through Wuhan. | 由于担心2002年中国动物市场暴发的SARS疫情重演，中国官员下令关闭华南海鲜市场，武汉警方于2020年1月1日将其关闭。尽管采取了这些措施，武汉的新增病例仍成倍增加。 |
| Wuhan authorities said on Jan. 11, 2020, that cases had begun on Dec. 8. In February, they identified the earliest patient as a Wuhan resident with the surname Chen, who fell sick on Dec. 8 and had no link to the market. | 2020年1月11日，武汉当局表示，病例于12月8日开始出现。今年2月，他们确认最早的患者是一位陈姓武汉居民，他于12月8日患病，与该市场没有关联。 |
| Chinese officials and some outside experts suspected that the initially high percentage of cases linked to the market might have been a statistical fluke known as ascertainment bias. They reasoned that the Dec. 30 call from officials to report market-linked illnesses may have led doctors to overlook other cases with no such ties. | 中国官员和一些外部专家怀疑，最初与市场相关的病例比例很高，可能是一种被称为确认偏差的统计误差。他们的理由是，去年12月30日官员呼吁报告与市场相关的疾病，可能导致医生忽视了其他与该市场无关的病例。 |
| “At the beginning, we presumed that the seafood market may have the novel coronavirus,” Gao Fu, director of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in May 2020, according to China Global Television Network. “But it now turns out that the market is one of the victims.” | 据中国环球电视网报道，中国疾病预防控制中心主任高福在2020年5月表示：“可能最早，我们推测海鲜市场可能有（病毒），但现在看来，海鲜市场本身也是受害单位。” |
| By the spring of 2020, senior members of the Trump administration were promoting another scenario for the origin of the pandemic: that the virus had escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has a campus roughly eight miles away from the Huanan market, across the Yangtze River. | 到2020年春，特朗普政府的高级官员开始宣传大流行的另一种说法：病毒是从武汉病毒研究所逃逸出来的，该研究所的一个园区距离长江对岸的华南海鲜市场大约13公里。 |
| In January of this year, researchers chosen by the W.H.O. visited China and interviewed an accountant who had reportedly developed symptoms on Dec. 8. Their influential March 2021 report described him as the first known case. | 今年1月，世卫组织挑选的研究人员访问了中国，并询问了一名据称在12月8日出现症状的会计。由此得出的一份极具影响力的报告于2021年3月发表，将此人描述为第一个已知病例。 |
| But Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist at EcoHealth Alliance who was part of the W.H.O. team, said that he was convinced by Dr. Worobey’s analysis that they had been wrong. | 但生态健康联盟的疾病生态学家、世卫组织团队成员彼得·达扎克表示，他被伍罗贝的分析所说服，他们错了。 |
| “That December the eighth date was a mistake,” Dr. Daszak said. | “12月8日这个日期是错的，”达扎克说。 |
| The W.H.O. team never asked the accountant the date his symptoms began, he said. Instead, they were given the Dec. 8 date by doctors from Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who handled other early cases but did not care for Mr. Chen. “So the mistake lies there,” Dr. Daszak said. | 他说，世卫组织的团队从来没有问过那位会计他出现症状的日期。12月8日这个日期是由湖北省新华医院的医生提供的，他们处理了其他早期病例，但这位陈姓病人并非由他们医治。“所以这是出问题的地方，”达扎克说。 |
| For the W.H.O. experts, Dr. Daszak said, the interview was a dead end: The accountant had no apparent links to an animal market, lab or a mass gathering. He told them he liked spending time on the internet and jogging, and he did not travel much. “He was as vanilla as you could get,” Dr. Daszak said. | 达扎克说，对世卫组织的专家来说，这次走访是个死胡同：这位会计与动物市场、实验室或密集人群没有明显联系。他告诉他们，他平时喜欢上网和慢跑，不经常旅行。“他是你能找到的最普通不过的人，”达扎克说。 |
| Had the team identified the seafood vendor as the first known case, Dr. Daszak said, it would have more aggressively pursued questions like what stall she worked in and where her products came from. | 达扎克说，如果该团队将那名海鲜商贩确认为已知的第一个病例，他们就会更积极地追问她在哪个摊位工作，她的产品来自哪里等问题。 |
| This year, Dr. Daszak has been one of the strongest critics of the lab-leak theory. He and his organization, EcoHealth Alliance, have taken heat for research collaborations with the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Last month, the National Institutes of Health said EcoHealth was in breach of the terms and conditions of its grant for research on coronaviruses in bats. | 今年，达扎克是实验室泄漏理论最强烈的批评者之一。他和他的组织生态健康联盟因与武汉病毒研究所的研究合作而备受质疑。上个月，美国国立卫生研究院表示，生态健康联盟违反了其对蝙蝠冠状病毒研究的拨款条款和条件。 |
| While the doctors at Hubei Xinhua Hospital said that the onset of the accountant’s illness had been Dec. 8, a senior doctor at Wuhan Central Hospital, where Mr. Chen was treated, had told a Chinese news outlet that he developed symptoms around Dec. 16. | 尽管湖北省新华医院的医生说，陈姓病人的病情于12月8日开始，但治疗他的武汉市中心医院的一名资深医生告诉一家中国新闻媒体，他是在12月16日左右出现症状的。 |
| Asked about Mr. Chen’s case, China’s National Health Commission said it stood by comments made by Liang Wannian, the leader of the Chinese side of the W.H.O.-China investigation who led the interview with the Hubei Xinhua Hospital doctors. Mr. Liang told a news conference in February of this year that the earliest Covid case showed symptoms on Dec. 8 and was “not connected” to the Huanan market. | 当被问及陈先生的病例时，中国国家卫生健康委员会表示支持负责采访湖北新华医院医生的世界卫生组织–中国调查中方负责人梁万年的评论。梁万年在今年2月的新闻发布会上表示，最早的新冠病例在12月8日出现症状，且与华南海鲜市场“无关”。 |
| Errors and Inconsistencies | 错误和不一致 |
| In their report, the W.H.O. experts concluded that the virus most likely spread to people from an animal spillover, but they could not confirm that the Huanan market was the source. By contrast, they said that a lab leak was “extremely unlikely.” | 世界卫生组织专家在他们的报告中得出结论，该病毒最有可能通过动物外溢传播给人类，但他们无法确认华南海鲜市场是源头。相比之下，他们说实验室泄漏“极不可能”。 |
| The report has come under fire for several errors and shortcomings. The Washington Post revealed in July that the report listed the wrong viral samples for several early patients — including the first official case — and mistakenly linked the first family cluster of cases to the Huanan market. The W.H.O. promised to fix the errors, but they remain in the report on the organization’s website. (The organization said that it would ask the report’s authors if and how they would correct the mistakes.) | 该报告中有若干错误和缺陷，因而受到抨击。《华盛顿邮报》在7月透露，该报告列出的几个早期患者的病毒样本是错误的——包括第一个官方病例——并错误地将第一批家庭病例与华南海鲜市场联系起来。世界卫生组织承诺会修复这些错误，但它们仍存在于世卫组织网站上的报告中。（世卫组织表示将询问该报告的作者是否以及如何纠正这些错误。） |
| In May, two months after the report by the W.H.O. and China was published, 18 prominent scientists, including Dr. Worobey, responded with a letter in Science complaining that the W.H.O. team had given the lab-leak theory short shrift. Far more research was required, they argued, to determine whether one explanation was more likely than the other. | 今年5月，也就是世界卫生组织和中国的报告发表两个月后，包括伍罗贝在内的18位著名科学家在《科学》杂志上发表信件回应，指责世界卫生组织团队对实验室泄漏理论一笔带过。他们认为，需要更多的研究来确定一种解释是否比另一种更有可能。 |
| An expert on the origins of influenza and H.I.V., Dr. Worobey has tried to piece together the early days of the Covid pandemic. Reading a May 2020 study of early cases written by local doctors and health officials in Wuhan, he was puzzled to see a description that seemed like Mr. Chen: a 41-year-old man with no contact with the Huanan market. But the study’s authors dated his symptoms to Dec. 16, not Dec. 8. | 作为研究流感和艾滋病毒起源的专家，伍罗贝试图拼凑出新冠大流行最开始的那几天。他读了2020年5月武汉当地医生和卫生官员撰写的一份关于早期病例的研究报告，他看到一个病例很像是陈先生：一名41岁的男子，与华南海鲜市场没有接触。但该研究的作者将他的症状出现时间写为12月16日，而不是12月8日。 |
| Then Dr. Worobey found what appeared to be a second, independent source for the later date: Mr. Chen himself. | 然后，关于12月8日这一日期，伍罗贝找到了看似是第二个独立消息来源：陈先生本人。 |
| “I got a fever on the 16th, during the day,” a man identified as Mr. Chen said in a March 2020 video interview with The Paper, a publication based in Shanghai. The video indicates that Mr. Chen is a 41-year-old who worked in a company’s finance office and never went to the Huanan market. Official reports said that he lived in the Wuchang district in Wuhan, miles from the market. | “我16日在白天发烧，”一位据称是陈先生的男子在2020年3月接受总部在上海的媒体《澎湃新闻》的视频采访时说。视频显示，陈先生现年41岁，曾在一家公司财务部工作，从未去过华南海鲜市场。官方报道称，他住在武汉市武昌区，离市场几十公里。 |
| The New York Times was not able to independently confirm the identity of the man in the video. | 《纽约时报》无法独立确认视频中男子的身份。 |
| Along with his fever on Dec. 16, Mr. Chen said he felt a tightness in his chest and went to the hospital that day. “Even without any strenuous exercise, with just a tiny bit of effort, like the way I’m speaking with you now, I’d feel short of breath,” he said. | 12月16日，除了发烧，陈先生说他感到胸闷，当天去了医院。他说：“即使没有任何剧烈运动，只要动一点点力气，就像我现在和你说话一样，我也会感到气短。” |
| Dr. Worobey said that the medical records shown in the video might hold clues to how the W.H.O.-China report wound up with the wrong date. One page described surgery Mr. Chen needed to have teeth removed. Another was a Dec. 9 prescription for antibiotics referring to a fever from the day before — possibly the day of the dental surgery. | 伍罗贝说，视频中显示的医疗记录也许可以解释为什么世卫组织–中国报告搞错了日期。医疗记录的一页写着陈先生需要做的拔牙手术。另一页写的是12月9日开出的抗生素处方，以应对前一天的发烧——可能就是牙科手术那一天。 |
| On the video, Mr. Chen speculated that he might have gotten Covid “when I went to the hospital” — possibly a reference to his earlier dental surgery. | 在视频中，陈先生推测他可能“在我去医院时”感染了新冠——这可能是指他早些时候的牙科手术。 |
| The Washington Post noted in July that the details provided by the W.H.O. for the Dec. 8 case seemed to fit better with an entry from an online database of viral samples linked to someone who got sick on Dec. 16. In response, the W.H.O. had said it was looking into the discrepancy. | 《华盛顿邮报》7月曾指出，世卫组织提供的关于12月8日病例的细节似乎更符合病毒样本在线数据库中一位12月16日发病的患者记录。世卫组织在回应中表示，正在调查这一事实出入。 |
| An agency spokesman told The New York Times it would be “difficult to comment” on the first known case because the W.H.O. team had limited access to health data. He said it was important for investigators to keep looking for patients infected even earlier. | 该机构的一位发言人告诉《纽约时报》，因专家组对健康数据的获取有限，世卫组织对首个已知病例“难以置评”。他表示，调查人员有必要继续寻找更早的感染病例。 |
| Murky Links | 模糊的关联 |
| In Dr. Worobey’s revised chronology, the earliest case is not Mr. Chen but the seafood vendor, a woman named Wei Guixian, who developed symptoms around Dec. 11. (Ms. Wei said in the same video published by The Paper that her serious symptoms began on Dec. 11, and she told The Wall Street Journal that she began feeling sick on Dec. 10. The W.H.O.-China report listed a Dec. 11 case linked to the market.) | 在经伍罗贝修正的时间线中，最早的病例不是陈先生，而是一位名叫魏桂贤（音）的海鲜商贩，她在12月11日左右出现了症状。（在澎湃新闻发布的同一段视频中，魏桂贤说她的严重症状始于12月11日，她还告诉《华尔街日报》，自己从12月10日开始感到不适。世卫组织-中国的报告将一个12月11日的病例列为与市场相关。） |
| Dr. Worobey found that hospitals reported more than a dozen likely cases before Dec. 30, the day the Wuhan authorities alerted doctors to be on the lookout for ties to the market. | 伍罗贝发现，在12月30日——也就是武汉当局提醒医生注意与市场的关联病例当天——之前，各医院已经报告了十几例疑似病例。 |
| He determined that Wuhan Central Hospital and Hubei Xinhua Hospital each recognized seven cases of unexplained pneumonia before Dec. 30 that would be confirmed as Covid-19. At each hospital, four out of seven cases were linked to the market. | 他认定武汉中心医院与湖北省新华医院在12月30日前各自发现了七例后均被确诊为新冠的不明原因肺炎患者。这两家医院的七例确诊中各有四例都与市场有关。 |
| By focusing on just these cases, Dr. Worobey argued, he could rule out the possibility that ascertainment bias skewed the results in favor of the market. | 伍罗贝认为，通过对这些病例的集中研究，他可以排除确认偏差导致溯源结果倾向于市场的可能性。 |
| Still, other scientists said it’s far from certain that the pandemic began at the market. | 但也有一些科学家认为，还远不能确定疫情就是从市场开始的。 |
| “He has done an excellent job of reconstructing what he can from the available data, and it’s as reasonable a hypothesis as any,” said Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, a virologist at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University. “But I don’t think we’re ever going to know what’s going on, because it’s two years ago and it’s still murky.” | “他依靠现有数据出色地完成了重塑工作，这绝对是一个合理的假设，”哥伦比亚大学梅尔曼公共卫生学院的病毒学家W·伊恩·利普金表示。“但我认为我们永远不会知道究竟发生了什么，因为已经过去了两年，事实依然模糊。” |
| Alina Chan, a postdoctoral fellow at the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Mass., and one of the most vocal proponents of investigating a lab leak, said that only new details about earlier cases — going back to November — would help scientists trace the origin. | 在马萨诸塞州坎布里奇的布罗德研究所担任博士后研究员艾琳娜·陈（音）是最支持调查实验室泄漏理论的学者之一，她声称只有获得了最早发现于11月的早期病例新细节，才能帮助科学家追踪到疫情起源。 |
| “The main issue this points out,” she said, “is that there’s a lack of access to data, and there are errors in the W.H.O.-China report.” | 她表示，“这说明主要问题就在于缺乏数据获取的途径，以及世卫组织–中国的报告中存在错误。” |
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