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恒大危机后中国楼市降温,购房者日渐失去信心
In China, Home Buyers Who Went All In Say They Want Out

来源:纽约时报    2021-10-13 11:28



        China is trying to cool its costly and dangerously debt-ridden housing market, where high prices and go-go levels of borrowing and spending are increasingly seen as a national threat.        中国正试图给滥花钱且债务高到危险程度的房地产市场降温,高房价以及大笔借贷和开支正越来越被视为国家威胁。
        But as the troubles of a major property developer and its $300 billion mountain of debt drive a government effort to contain the peril, Beijing risks hurting a major driver of its crucial economic growth engine: home buyers like He Qiang.        但随着一家大型房地产开发商的麻烦及其3000亿美元的巨额债务促使政府采取风险控制措施,北京也面临着给中国经济增长引擎的主要推动力——何强(音)这样的购房者造成伤害的危险。
        Mr. He was so optimistic about property in China that he bought an apartment from that property developer, China Evergrande Group, then became a real estate agent himself, selling the company’s apartments to hundreds of other families. “It was the peak of Evergrande’s glory,” Mr. He said.        何先生曾对中国的房地产业非常乐观,他买下那家房地产开发商——中国恒大集团的一套公寓后,又加入恒大当起了房地产经纪人,把公司的公寓卖给数百个家庭。“之前就是恒大最辉煌的时候 ,”何先生说。
        He is much more pessimistic these days. Mr. He, who is from the southern city of Yueyang, has yet to move into his apartment because Evergrande has stopped construction. So many other people are nervous about buying homes, he said, that he’s considering going back to selling cars.        这些天来,何先生已变得非常悲观。由于恒大已停止施工,来自中国南方城市岳阳的何先生还没有搬进他买下的公寓。他说,很多人都对买房感到忧虑,他正考虑重返汽车销售行业。
        “People aren’t in the mood to buy property anymore,” Mr. He said.        “购买的心情就都没有了,”何先生说。
        The real estate boom that once attracted young professionals like Mr. He is experiencing a dramatic overhaul. At one point, buying was so frenzied that properties would sell out within minutes of being offered. Speculation sent prices soaring. Real estate grew to provide more than a quarter of the country’s economic growth by some estimates, with homes becoming the main savings vehicle for Chinese families.        曾经吸引了何先生这样的年轻专业人士的房地产热潮,正在经历一次巨大的变化。曾几何时,买房者如此狂热,以至于公寓楼在开盘几分钟内售罄。炒房推动了房价飙升。据某些估计,房地产业贡献了中国经济增长的四分之一以上,房产成了中国家庭的主要存钱工具。
        Nearly three-quarters of household wealth in China is now tied to property. The loss of confidence in the market could spill over to lower sales of cars and appliances, further hurting the economy. Already, weak retail sales in China have signaled that consumers are feeling increasingly insecure. As more buyers shy away from home sales, experts say Beijing’s decision to intervene in the market and curb debt may risk overall growth.        如今,中国家庭近四分之三的财富与房产有关。对房产市场丧失信心的溢出效应可能会导致汽车和家电销售的下降,从而进一步损害经济。中国零售业的疲软已表明消费者越来越没有安全感。随着越来越多的人不敢买房,专家说,北京干预房地产市场、遏制债务的决定可能会危及整个经济增长。
        “We are indeed seeing a very serious slowdown in the property market, with falling prices, sales and construction activity, and this is likely to drag down economic growth in the next couple of quarters,” said Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent economic research firm.        “我们确实看到房地产市场出现了非常严重的放缓,价格、销售和施工活动都在下降,这可能会拖累未来几个季度的经济增长,”独立经济研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的董事总经理葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber)说。
        Evergrande was once a paragon of China’s real estate boom. More recently, though, it has shaken global markets with news of a possible collapse. It has missed several key payments to foreign investors in recent weeks, including on Monday. Waiting for a lifeline, it halted its shares last week and announced the potential sale of a lucrative unit.        恒大曾是中国房地产繁荣的典范。然而,这家公司可能崩溃的消息最近震动了全球市场。最近几周里,恒大已几次未向外国投资者按期支付利息,包括本周一到期的一笔。在等待救命稻草的同时,恒大上周暂停了股票交易,宣布可能出售旗下一个利润丰厚的部门。
        The company’s troubles have elicited recent comments from central bankers around the world and even the U.S. secretary of state, who urged China to “act responsibly” in handling Evergrande’s future.        恒大的麻烦已在最近引起了世界各国央行行长发声,就连美国国务卿也敦促中国在处理恒大的未来时“采取负责任的行动”。
        China’s 100 biggest real estate companies are expected to report that sales in September plummeted by more than a third compared with a year earlier, according to China Real Estate Information Corp., an industry data provider. Fantasia, a developer known for luxury properties, unexpectedly defaulted last week, sending shock waves through the financial markets.        据行业数据提供商中国房产信息集团,中国排名前100的房地产企业9月份的销售额预计将比去年同期下降三分之一以上。以开发豪宅闻名的花样年上周出乎意料地违约,震惊了金融市场。
        The month may have been worse for Evergrande. The developer has already warned investors that it expects a “significant continuing decline” in sales. And as its cranes and hammers stop in cities across the country, some 1.6 million home buyers remain in limbo waiting for their apartments.        对恒大来说,这个月情况可能更糟。恒大已经警告投资者,预计销售额将“持续大幅下滑”。随着全国各地城市的恒大开发项目停工,约160万购房者仍在等待公司交房。
        Mr. He said his friends and neighbors who were once interested in buying real estate now tell him they worry about putting a down payment on an apartment that might never be built. Families once lured by Evergrande’s slick sales offices and impressive marketing are staying away. “People worry, ‘If I buy now, what if the developer has a sale later?’” Mr. He said.        何先生说,他的朋友和邻居们曾对买房感兴趣,但他们现在告诉他,他们对支付一套可能永远盖不起来的公寓的首付感到担心。曾经被恒大光鲜的售楼处和令人印象深刻的营销活动所吸引的家庭,现在纷纷离去。“人们担心,‘我现在买了,后面也怕开发商大降价啊,’”何先生说。
        He doesn’t blame them.        他并不责怪这些人。
        Evergrande stopped the work on his own apartment in June. Construction at three of its other sprawling projects in his city have either stopped or are expected to stop because builders said they have not been paid. The dramatic headlines focused on property in China are likely to keep home buyers away for longer than just a month or two.        今年6月,恒大停止了何先生所购楼盘的建设。恒大在岳阳的其他三个大型项目的建设有的已经停工,有的预计将要停工,因为建筑商说他们没有收到恒大应该支付的款项。关于中国房地产令人吃惊的头条新闻,可能会让购房者不只是在未来一两个月里不敢买房。
        Online government forums designed to receive feedback from local citizens are now inundated with complaints from angry families who bought apartments from Evergrande. Some wondered if they should keep paying the mortgage on a property that hasn’t been completed. One used the forum to ask if his lifelong savings would simply be “thrown into the water” if Evergrande were to go bankrupt.        政府听取民众意见的在线平台现在充斥着愤怒的恒大购房者的投诉。有些人想知道,他们是否应该继续为尚未交付的公寓支付抵押贷款。一位网友在平台上问,如果恒大破产,他一生的积蓄会不会就这么“打水漂”?
        A group of home buyers on a forum in Guangzhou said they learned that Evergrande had placed the money from their down payments in a private bank account and not the one stipulated by the local authority and monitored closely. Another home buyer in the city of Meishan in China’s Sichuan Province used the forum to plead with officials, “Please uphold justice for your people!”        广州一个在线平台上有一群购房者说,他们了解到,恒大将首付款的钱存入了私人银行账户,而不是当地政府规定的、有监管的账户。四川眉山的一名购房者在平台上恳求政府官员“为民做主”。
        Even as prominent investors question whether an Evergrande collapse could lead to China’s so-called Lehman moment, referring to the investment bank that triggered the 2008 global financial crisis, Beijing has been largely silent, having vowed to no longer rescue companies once considered too big to fail. Many local officials have been left on their own to respond to the growing frustration.        尽管一些有名的投资者不大相信恒大崩溃会导致所谓中国的“雷曼时刻”(Lehman moment,这家投资银行的破产引发了2008年的全球金融危机),中国政府也基本上保持沉默,并且放话不再救助那些曾被认为“大到不能倒”的公司。许多地方官员只能自己来应对日益增长的懊丧。
        Local governments in cities as far and wide as Shiyan, Shenyang and Chongqing have each set up special task forces to help manage the potential fallout. One official in the southern city of Shifang, responding to complaints on a government forum, said the local construction regulator, the police and other government bodies met and informed the developers and contractors of “the grim consequences” they faced because of delayed construction.        十堰、沈阳和重庆等许多城市的政府都成立了特别工作组,来帮助处理可能出现的问题。四川什邡市一名官员在一个政府平台上回复人们的抱怨时说,当地的监管机构、警方和其他政府部门已与开发商和承包商开了会,告诉他们因施工延误所面临的“严重后果”。
        The regulators who engineered the property slowdown have started to make moves to bolster the sector if things get worse. China’s central bank last month issued a rare comment saying it would monitor the real estate market. While a reckoning in the financial markets is unlikely, the central bank has also opened emergency spigots to make it easier for local banks to draw more money, just in case.        主导了房地产市场降温的监管者们已采取行动,为一旦情况进一步恶化时提振房地产行业做准备。中国央行上月罕见地表态将监管房地产市场。虽然金融市场不太可能出大问题,但中国央行已经开启了应急措施,让地方银行更容易得到更多资金,以防万一。
        “It is preparing the firefighting equipment,” said Dinny McMahon, an analyst for Trivium, an advisory focused on China. “Clearly financial regulators are starting to get a bit nervous about the way things are going.”        “中国正在准备灭火设备,”专注于中国的咨询公司策纬(Trivium)的分析师迪尼·麦克马洪(Dinny McMahon)说。“很明显,金融监管者们开始对事态的发展感到有点紧张。”
        Without a clear message that Beijing will help Evergrande and other developers continue construction projects and deal with the enormous debts, many Chinese families are holding on to their money and holding off buying new homes.        在北京未发出明确信息表明会帮助恒大和其他开发商把建设项目继续下去、处理巨额债务的情况下,许多中国家庭都会把钱留在手里,暂不购买新房。
        Mr. He is still waiting to hear from Evergrande about his apartment. Though the developer has not sent him a notice of delay, he can see that construction on his building stopped several months ago, and has had to reconsider his plans to get married next May. The apartment was supposed to be finished by the end of the year, giving him time to decorate so that the space could feature prominently in the wedding festivities.        何先生仍在等待恒大提供有关他所购公寓的消息。虽然恒大还没有向他发项目延期通知,但他看到,买的楼盘已在几个月前停工,他不得不重新考虑明年5月结婚的计划。这套公寓本应在今年年底交付,让他有时间做装修,把公寓当作婚房,也就是婚礼的一个重要场所。
        “Now with this delayed construction,” Mr. He said, “the wedding will be postponed, too.”        “逾期影响的话,婚礼肯定就要往后推了,”何先生说。
                
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