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| As the world economy struggles to find its footing, the resurgence of the coronavirus and supply chain chokeholds threaten to hold back the global recovery’s momentum, a closely watched report warned on Tuesday. | 周二，一份受密切关注的报告警告称，在世界经济艰难寻找立足点之际，新冠疫情的重新抬头和供应链瓶颈可能会抑制全球复苏的势头。 |
| The overall growth rate will remain near 6 percent this year, a historically high level after a recession, but the expansion reflects a vast divergence in the fortunes of rich and poor countries, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook report. | 国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)在其最新的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)报告中称，今年整体经济增长率将保持在6%左右，是经济衰退后的历史最高水平，但这一增长反映了富国和穷国命运的巨大差异。 |
| Worldwide poverty, hunger and unmanageable debt are all on the upswing. Employment has fallen, especially for women, reversing many of the gains they made in recent years. | 世界范围内的贫困、饥饿和难以控制的债务都在上升。就业率下降，尤其是女性就业率，这逆转了她们近年来取得的许多进展。 |
| Uneven access to vaccines and health care is at the heart of the economic disparities. While booster shots are becoming available in some wealthier nations, a staggering 96 percent of people in low-income countries are still unvaccinated. | 获得疫苗和卫生保健的机会不均是经济差距的核心。虽然一些较富裕国家开始提供强化疫苗，但低收入国家仍有高达96%的人没有接种疫苗。 |
| “Recent developments have made it abundantly clear that we are all in this together and the pandemic is not over anywhere until it is over everywhere,” Gita Gopinath, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in the report. | 国际货币基金组织首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)在报告中写道：“最近的事态发展非常清楚地表明，我们都置身其中，除非疫情在所有地方都结束，否则任何地方都无法结束。” |
| The outlook for the United States, Europe and other advanced economies has also darkened. Factories hobbled by pandemic-related restrictions and bottlenecks at key ports around the world have caused crippling supply shortages. A lack of workers in many industries is contributing to the clogs. The U.S. Labor Department reported Tuesday that a record 4.3 million workers quit their jobs in August — to take or seek new jobs, or to leave the work force. | 美国、欧洲和其他发达经济体的前景也变得黯淡。与疫情有关的限制和世界各地主要港口的瓶颈阻碍了工厂的发展，造成了严重的供应短缺。许多行业缺乏工人也是造成阻滞的原因之一。美国劳工部周二报告说，8月份有430万美国人辞职，他们选择或寻找新的工作，或离开劳动力市场。 |
| In the United States, weakening consumption and large declines in inventory caused the I.M.F. to pare back its growth projections to 6 percent from the 7 percent estimated in July. In Germany, manufacturing output has taken a hit because key commodities are hard to find. And lockdown measures over the summer have dampened growth in Japan. | 在美国，由于消费疲软和库存大幅下降，国际货币基金组织将其增长预期从7月份估计的7%下调至6%。在德国，由于关键大宗商品难以找到，制造业产出受到冲击。夏季的封锁措施也抑制了日本的增长。 |
| Fear of rising inflation — even if likely to be temporary — is growing. Prices are climbing for food, medicine and oil as well as for cars and trucks. Inflation worries could also limit governments’ ability to stimulate the economy if a slowdown worsens. As it is, the unusual infusion of public support in the United States and Europe is winding down. | 对通胀加重的担忧正在加剧，即使可能只是暂时的。食品、药品、石油以及汽车和卡车的价格都在攀升。如果经济放缓加剧，对通胀的担忧也可能限制政府刺激经济的能力。事实上，美国和欧洲不同寻常的公共支持正在逐渐减少。 |
| “Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased, and policy trade-offs have become more complex,” Ms. Gopinath said. The I.M.F. lowered its 2021 global growth forecast to 5.9 percent, down from the 6 percent projected in July. For 2022, the estimate is 4.9 percent. | “总体而言，经济前景面临的风险增加了，政策权衡也变得更加复杂，”戈皮纳特说。国际货币基金组织将其2021年全球经济增长预期从7月份的6%下调至5.9%。该组织对2022年的预期是4.9%。 |
| The key to understanding the global economy is that recoveries in different countries are out of sync, said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “Each and every economy is suffering or benefiting from its own idiosyncratic factors,” he said. | 牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席美国经济学家格雷戈里·达科(Gregory Daco)表示，理解全球经济的关键是，不同国家的复苏并不同步。他说：“每一个经济体都因其自身的特殊因素而受害或受益。” |
| For countries like China, Vietnam and South Korea, whose economies have large manufacturing sectors, “inflation hits them where it hurts the most,” Mr. Daco said, raising costs of raw materials that reverberate through the production process. | 达科说，对于中国、越南和韩国等经济体制造业规模较大的国家来说，“通胀对它们的打击最大，”原材料成本上升，对整个生产过程产生了影响。 |
| The pandemic has underscored how economic success or failure in one country can ripple throughout the world. Floods in Shanxi, China’s mining region, and monsoons in India’s coal-producing states contribute to rising energy prices. A Covid outbreak in Ho Chi Minh City that shuts factories means shop owners in Hoboken won’t have shoes and sweaters to sell. | 疫情凸显了一个国家的经济成功或失败会如何波及全世界。中国煤矿地区山西的洪水和印度产煤邦的雨季导致能源价格上涨。胡志明市爆发的新冠疫情导致工厂关闭，这意味着美国霍博肯的店主将没有鞋子和毛衣可供出售。 |
| The I.M.F. warned that if the coronavirus — or its variants — continued to hopscotch across the globe, it could reduce the world’s estimated output by $5.3 trillion over the next five years. | 国际货币基金组织警告称，如果新冠病毒——或其变体——继续在全球蔓延，它可能会在未来五年使全球产出估计减少5.3万亿美元。 |
| The worldwide surge in energy prices threatens to impose more hardship as it hampers the recovery. This week, oil prices hit a seven-year high in the United States. With winter approaching, Europeans are worried that heating costs will soar when temperatures drop. In other spots, the shortages have cut even deeper, causing blackouts in some places that paralyzed transport, closed factories and threatened food supplies. | 世界范围内的能源价格飙升有可能在阻碍经济复苏的同时带来更多困难。本周，美国的石油价格达到七年来的最高点。随着冬天临近，欧洲人担心气温下降时供暖成本会飙升。在其他地区，石油短缺的影响更大，导致一些地区停电、交通瘫痪、工厂关闭、食品供应受到威胁。 |
| In China, electricity is being rationed in many provinces and many companies are operating at less than half of their capacity, contributing to an already significant slowdown in growth. India’s coal reserves have dropped to dangerously low levels. | 在中国，许多省份正在实行限电，许多企业的开工率不到产能的一半，加剧了本已显著放缓的增长。印度的煤炭储量已降至危险的低水平。 |
| And over the weekend, Lebanon’s six million residents were left without any power for more than 24 hours after fuel shortages shut down the nation’s power plants. The outage is just the latest in a series of disasters there. Its economic and financial crisis has been one of the world’s worst in 150 years. | 上周末，由于燃料短缺导致发电厂关闭，黎巴嫩600万居民断电超过24小时。这次停电只是当地一系列灾难中的最新一起。该国的经济和金融危机是150年来全球最严重的危机之一。 |
| Oil producers in the Middle East and elsewhere are lately benefiting from the jump in prices. But many nations in the region and North Africa are still trying to resuscitate their pandemic-battered economies. According to newly updated reports from the World Bank, 13 of the 16 countries in that region will have lower standards of living this year than they did before the pandemic, in large part because of “underfinanced, imbalanced and ill-prepared health systems.” | 中东和其他地区的产油国最近正从油价上涨中获益。但该地区和北非的许多国家仍在努力恢复遭受疫情打击的经济。根据世界银行(World Bank)最新更新的报告，该地区16个国家中有13个国家今年的生活水平将低于疫情之前，这在很大程度上是由于“资金不足、失衡和卫生系统准备不足”。 |
| Other countries were so overburdened by debt even before the pandemic that governments were forced to limit spending on health care to repay foreign lenders. | 一些国家在大流行之前就已经负债累累，以至于政府被迫限制医疗支出以偿还外债。 |
| In Latin America and the Caribbean, there are fears of a second lost decade of growth like the one experienced after 2010. In South Africa, over one-third of the population is out of work. | 在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区，人们担心会出现第二个失去增长的10年，就像2010年之后经历的那样。在南非，超过三分之一的人口失业。 |
| And in East Asia and the Pacific, a World Bank update warned that “Covid-19 threatens to create a combination of slow growth and increasing inequality for the first time this century.” Businesses in Indonesia, Mongolia and the Philippines lost on average 40 percent or more of their typical monthly sales. Thailand and many Pacific island economies are expected to have less output in 2023 than they did before the pandemic. | 在东亚和太平洋地区，世界银行最新的警告说，“新冠病毒有可能在本世纪首次造成增长缓慢和不平等加剧的双重威胁。”印度尼西亚、蒙古和菲律宾的企业平均损失其典型月销售额的40%或更多。预计泰国和许多太平洋岛屿经济体在2023年的产出将低于疫情前。 |
| Overall, though, some developing economies are doing better than last year, partly because of the increase in the prices of commodities like oil and metals that they produce. Growth projections ticked up slightly to 6.4 percent in 2021 compared with 6.3 percent estimated in July. | 不过，总体而言，一些发展中经济体的表现要好于去年，部分原因是它们生产的石油和金属等大宗商品价格上涨。它们在2021年的增长预测由7月份估计的6.3%小幅上升至6.4%。 |
| “The recovery has been incredibly uneven,” and that’s a problem for everyone, said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust. “Developing countries are essential to global economic function.” | “复苏非常不均衡，”北方信托银行(Northern Trust)首席经济学家卡尔·坦南鲍姆(Carl Tannenbaum)表示，这对所有人来说都是问题。“发展中国家对全球经济运作至关重要。” |
| The outlook is clouded by uncertainty. Erratic policy decisions — like Congress’s delay in lifting the debt ceiling — can further set back the recovery, the I.M.F. warned. | 前景充满不确定性。国际货币基金组织警告称，反复无常的政策决定——比如美国国会推迟提高债务上限——可能会进一步阻碍经济复苏。 |
| But the biggest risk is the emergence of a more infectious and deadlier coronavirus variant. | 但最大的风险是出现一种传染性更强、更致命的新冠病毒变体。 |
| Ms. Gopinath at the I.M.F. urged vaccine manufacturers to support the expansion of vaccine production in developing countries. | 国际货币基金组织的戈皮纳特敦促疫苗制造商支持在发展中国家扩大疫苗生产。 |
| Earlier this year, the I.M.F. approved $650 billion worth of emergency currency reserves that have been distributed to countries around the world. In this latest report, it again called on wealthy countries to help ensure that these funds are used to benefit poor countries that have been struggling the most with the fallout of the virus. | 今年早些时候，国际货币基金组织批准了价值6500亿美元的紧急货币储备，分发给世界各国。在这份最新报告中，世界卫生组织再次呼吁富裕国家帮助确保这些资金被用于帮助受病毒影响最严重的穷国。 |
| “We’re witnessing what I call tragic reversals in development across many dimensions,” said David Malpass, the president of the World Bank. “Progress in reducing extreme poverty has been set back by years — for some, by a decade.” | “我们正在目睹发展在许多层面出现我所说的悲剧性逆转，”世界银行行长戴维·马尔帕斯(David Malpass)说，“在减少极端贫困方面的进展倒退了几年，对一些人来说是倒退了10年。” |
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