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楼市和能源问题拖累经济,中国三季度GDP增速放缓
China’s Economy Continues to Slow, Rattled by Real Estate and Energy

来源:纽约时报    2021-10-18 07:07



        BEIJING — Steel mills have faced power cuts. Computer chip shortages have slowed car production. Troubled property companies have purchased less construction material. Floods have disrupted business in north-central China.
        北京——钢铁厂面临停电问题。电脑芯片短缺已经导致汽车生产放缓。陷入困境的房地产企业减少了建筑材料的购买。洪水影响了中国中北部地区的商业活动。
        It has all taken a toll on China’s economy, an essential engine for global growth.
        这些问题都给中国经济带造成了影响,而中国是全球增长的一个重要引擎。
        The National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday that China’s economy increased by 4.9 percent in the third quarter, compared to the same period last year; the period was markedly slower than the 7.9 percent increase the country notched in the previous quarter. Industrial output, the mainstay of China’s growth, faltered badly, especially in September, posting its worst performance since the early days of the pandemic.
        周一,中国国家统计局公布,第三季度中国经济比去年同期增长了4.9%;这明显低于上一季度7.9%的增速。作为中国经济增长的支柱,工业产值大幅下滑,特别是在9月,出现了自新冠疫情初期以来最糟糕的表现。
        Two bright spots prevented the economy from stalling. Exports remained strong. And families, particularly prosperous ones, resumed spending money on restaurant meals and other services in September, as China succeeded once again in quelling small outbreaks of the coronavirus. Retail sales were up 4.4 percent in September from a year ago.
        两个亮点让经济停滞没有出现。出口依然保持强劲。而随着中国再次成功遏制了新冠疫情的小规模暴发,9月份家庭(特别是富裕家庭)在外出就餐和其他服务上的支出有所恢复。9月的零售额比去年同期增长了4.4%。
        Chinese officials are showing signs of concern, although they have refrained so far from unleashing a big economic stimulus. 
        中国官员正显示出担忧的迹象,尽管迄今尚未推出大规模的经济刺激措施。
        “The current international environment uncertainties are mounting, and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven,” said Fu Linghui, the spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics.
        “当前国际环境不确定性因素增多,国内经济恢复仍不稳固、不均衡,”国家统计局发言人付凌晖说。
        Their own efforts, though, are part of the current economic challenges.
        不过,他们自身的努力也成为了当前经济困境的一部分。
        In recent months, the government has unleashed a raft of measures to address income inequality and tame businesses, in part with the goal of protecting the health of the economy. But those efforts, including penalizing tech companies and discouraging real estate speculation, have also weighed on growth in the current quarter.
        最近几个月,政府推出了一系列措施来解决收入不平等的问题,并对企业进行整顿,部分目的是为了保护经济健康。但这些措施,包括惩处科技企业和打击房地产投机,也拖累了第三季度的增长。
        The government had also imposed limits on energy use as a part of a broader response to climate change concerns. Now, the power shortages are hurting industry, and the country is rushing to burn more coal.
        作为应对气候变化担忧的更广泛措施的一部分,政府还对能源使用进行了限制。现在,电力短缺正在损害工业,而中国正在急于烧掉更多煤炭。
        “The economy is sluggish,” said Yang Qingjun, the owner of a corner grocery store in an aging industrial neighborhood of shoe factories in Dongguan, near Hong Kong. Power cuts have prompted nearby factories to reduce operations and eliminate overtime pay. Local workers are living more frugally.
        “经济不景气,”杨庆军(音)说道,他在东莞一个由制鞋厂组成的老工业区经营一家街角杂货铺,这里距离香港不远。停电导致附近工厂减产,并取消了加班费。当地工人的生活更加拮据。
        “Money is hard to earn,” Mr. Yang said.
        “钱很难赚,”杨庆军说。
         Trying to Solve the Real Estate 
        试图解决房地产问题
        Question Urbanization was once a great engine of growth for China. The country built spacious apartments in modern high-rises for hundreds of millions of people, with China producing as much steel and cement as the rest of the world output combined, if not more.
        城市化曾是中国经济增长的一个重要引擎。这个国家建造的现代化高楼大厦为无数人提供了宽敞的公寓,中国的钢铁和水泥产量相当于——甚至超出了——世界其他国家的产量总和。
        Now, real estate — in particular, the debt that developers and home buyers amassed — is a major threat to growth. The country’s biggest developer, China Evergrande Group, faces a serious cash shortage that is already rippling through the economy.
        而今,房地产——特别是开发商和购房者累积的债务——成为了经济增长的主要威胁。中国最大的开发商中国恒大集团正面临严重的现金短缺,其影响已经波及到整个经济。
        Construction has ground to a halt at some of the company’s 800 projects as suppliers wait to be paid. Several smaller developers have had to scramble to meet bond payments.
        在恒大的800个项目中,有部分已经因为拖欠供货商款项而停工。一些规模较小的开发商不得不设法按时偿付债券。
        This could create a vicious cycle for the housing market. The worry is that developers may dump large numbers of unsold apartments on the market, keeping home buyers away as they watch to see how far prices may fall.
        这也许会造成房地产市场的恶性循环。人们担心的是,开发商可能会在市场上抛售大量未售出的公寓,导致购房者望而却步,因为他们要观望房价还会跌多少。
        “Some developers have encountered certain difficulties, which may further affect the mood and confidence of buyers, causing everyone to postpone buying a house,” said Ning Zhang, a senior economist at UBS.
        “有开发商遇到了一定的困难,这可能会进一步影响购房者的情绪和信心,导致所有人都推迟买房,”瑞银(UBS)高级经济学家张宁表示。
        The fate of Evergrande has broader import for the long-term health of the economy.
        恒大的命运在更广泛的层面上对经济的长远健康有影响。
        Officials want to send a message that bond buyers and other investors should be more wary about lending money to debt-laden companies like Evergrande and that they should not assume that the government will always be there to bail them out. But the authorities also need to make sure that suppliers, builders, home buyers and other groups are not badly burned financially.
        官员们希望传递这样一个信息,即债券购买者和其他投资者在向恒大这种负债累累的企业放贷时应该更加谨慎,不要想当然地觉得政府总会为他们兜底。但当局也得确保供应商、承建商、购房者和其他各方不会受到严重的经济打击。
        These groups “will get made more whole than the bondholders, that’s for sure,” predicted David Yu, a finance professor at the Shanghai campus of New York University.
        他们“会比债务持有者得到更多补偿,这是肯定的”,纽约大学(New York University)上海校区的金融学教授于达(David Yu)预测称。
        Addressing Difficulties in Heavy Industry
        解决重工业困境
        “The power cuts are more concerning to some extent than the Evergrande crisis,” said Sara Hsu, a visiting fellow at Fudan University in Shanghai.
        “某种程度上,停电比恒大危机更令人担忧,”上海复旦大学的访问学者徐赛兰(Sara Hsu)说。
        The Energy Bureau in Zhejiang Province, a heavily industrialized region of coastal China, reduced power this autumn for eight energy-intensive industries that process raw materials into industrial materials like steel, cement and chemicals. Together, they consume nearly half the province’s electricity but account for only an eighth of its economic output.
        在中国沿海高度工业化的浙江省,其能源局在今年秋季减少了八种高耗能行业的电力供应,都是将原材料加工成钢铁、水泥和化工产品等工业材料的行业。它们消耗了全省近一半的电力,但仅占其经济产出的八分之一。
        Turning down the power to these industries risks creating shortages in industrial materials, which could ripple through supply chains. Assembly plants in industries that use less electricity, like car manufacturing, have not faced the same demands for power cuts. But they face other challenges.
        减少对这些行业的电力供应可能会造成工业材料短缺,或将影响到整个供应链。对耗电较少的行业,如汽车制造业,组装工厂没有面临同样的停电要求。但它们还得应对其它挑战。
        Ongoing coronavirus outbreaks in Southeast Asia have interrupted supplies of some auto parts. There is also a global shortfall of semiconductors, a critical component in cars.Volkswagen, the market leader in China, said on Friday that its production had been falling as the company faced an ever-worsening chip shortage and other supply chain issues. The company doesn’t have enough cars to fill customers’ and dealerships’ orders, creating a backlog.
        东南亚持续的新冠病毒疫情中断了一些汽车零部件的供应。汽车的关键部件半导体在全球也存在短缺。中国市场的领军企业大众汽车(Volkswagen)上周五表示,由于面临日益严重的芯片短缺和其他供应链问题,其产量一直下降。该公司没有足够的汽车来满足客户和经销商的订单,造成积压。
        “Our priority is to work off our backlog,” said Stephan Wöllenstein, the chief executive of Volkswagen’s China division.
        “我们的首要任务是清理积压问题,”大众汽车中国首席执行官冯思翰(Stephan Wöllenstein)说。
        Finding Strength in Exports
        在出口中寻找力量
        For months, economists have made the same prediction: the fast growth of China’s exports cannot last.
        几个月来,经济学家们做出了同样的预测:中国出口的快速增长不会持续下去。
        The economists were wrong.
        经济学家们错了。
        China’s exports kept surging through the third quarter and finished strong, up 28.1 percent in September compared with the same month last year. China posted its third-highest monthly trade surplus ever last month.
        中国的出口在第三季度持续飙升,并以强劲的势头结束,9月份与去年同期相比增长了28.1%。上个月,中国公布了有史以来第三高的月度贸易顺差。
        China has essentially maintained its strength in exports ever since its economy emerged from the pandemic in the spring of last year. As much of the world hunkered down at home, families splurged on consumer electronics, furniture, clothing and other goods that China manufactures in abundance.
        自去年春天经济摆脱疫情以来,中国基本上保持了出口的强劲势头。当世界上大多数人都躲在家里的时候,家庭在电子产品、家具、服装和其他中国大量生产的商品上花费了大笔开支。
        The export boom, though, is creating another source of tension between the United States and China.
        然而,出口的繁荣正在制造美中关系紧张的另一个来源。
        Katherine Tai, the United States trade representative, suggested in a speech two weeks ago that China’s export prowess was partly the result of subsidies and other unfair practices. “For too long, China’s lack of adherence to global trading norms has undercut the prosperity of Americans and others around the world,” she said.
        美国贸易代表戴琪(Katherine Tai)在两周前的一次演讲中表示,中国的出口实力在一定程度上是补贴和其他不公平做法的结果。她说:“长期以来,中国不遵守全球贸易规范,削弱了美国和世界其他国家的繁荣。”
        But Chinese officials and experts contend that the country’s success is the result of a strong work ethic and consistent, large investments in manufacturing. They are quick to point out that by bringing the pandemic firmly under control within several weeks early last year, China was able to reopen its factories and offices quickly.“We have very strong supply, but weak demand,” said Tu Xinquan, the executive dean of the China Institute for World Trade Organization Studies at the University of International Business and Technology in Beijing. “So companies have to export.”
        但中国官员和专家认为,中国的成功是强大的职业道德和持续的大规模制造业投资的结果。他们很快指出,由于去年早些时候在几周内就牢牢控制住了疫情,中国得以迅速重启工厂和办公场所。“我们有非常强劲的供应,但需求很弱,”对外经贸大学中国世界贸易组织研究院执行院长屠新泉说。“所以企业必须出口。”
        
        
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