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| LONDON — For the last four months, Britain has run a grand epidemiological experiment, lifting virtually all coronavirus restrictions, even in the face of a high daily rate of infections. Its leaders justified the approach on the grounds that the country’s rapid rollout of vaccines had weakened the link between infection and serious illness. |
| 伦敦——在过去四个月里，英国进行了一项庞大的流行病学实验，尽管每天的感染率仍居高不下，仍取消了几乎所有的新冠病毒相关限制。其领导人认为，由于迅速推出的疫苗削弱了感染和重症之间的联系，这样做是合理的。 |
| Now, with cases, hospital admissions and deaths all rising again; the effect of vaccines beginning to wear off; and winter looming, Britain’s strategy of learning to live with the virus is coming under its stiffest test yet. |
| 现在，随着病例、入院和死亡数量上升，疫苗的作用开始减弱，加上冬天临近，英国逐渐与病毒共存的策略正面临最严峻的考验。 |
| New cases surpassed 50,000 on Thursday, an 18 percent increase over the last week and the second time cases have broken that psychological barrier since July. The number of people admitted to hospitals rose 15.4 percent over the same period, reaching 959, while 115 people died of Covid-19, an increase of almost 11 percent. |
| 周四，英国新增确诊病例超过5万例，比上周增加了18%，这是自7月以来病例数第二次突破这一心理大关。同期入院人数增加了15.4%，达到959人；115人死于新冠病毒，增加了近11%。 |
| “Everything is hitting us at once,” said Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London who has been leading a major study of Covid-19 symptoms. “My view is that we’re in a no man’s land.” |
| “一切都在同时打击我们，”伦敦国王学院(King’s College London)的遗传流行病学教授蒂姆·斯佩克特(Tim Spector)一直在领导一项关于新冠症状的重大研究。“我的观点是，我们处在一个无人区。” |
| The sudden resurgence of the virus is a rude jolt for a country that believed it had put the worst of the pandemic behind it. After a remarkably successful vaccine deployment and a characteristically British resolve to get on with it, Britons have been brought up short, vexed by a virus that isn’t ready to relinquish its grip. |
| 对于一个自认为已度过疫情最糟糕时期的国家来说，疫情突然再次抬头是一个沉重打击。进行了非常成功的疫苗部署，做出了具有英国特色的与之共存的决定后，英国人被一种还不打算放手的病毒搞得心烦意乱。 |
| At issue is the core trade off British officials made last summer: They decided they could tolerate a widely circulating virus as the price of reopening the economy, so long as only a small fraction of infected people ended up in the hospital. |
| 争论的焦点是英国官员去年夏天做出的核心考量：他们决定，如果到头来只有一小部分感染者需要住院，他们就可以容忍一种广泛传播的病毒，以此作为重新开放经济的代价。 |
| That laissez-faire approach has been watched by the United States and other European countries as a possible model for how to plot a way out of the pandemic. Britons have enjoyed a return to normalcy unseen in the rest of Europe, packing nightclubs, theaters, and sports stadiums — with face masks few and far between. |
| 美国和其他欧洲国家一直在关注这种自由放任的做法，将其视为一种摆脱疫情的可能模式。英国人享受着回归正常的生活，他们挤满了夜店、剧院和体育场——戴口罩的人却少之又少，这在欧洲其他国家是看不见的。 |
| The percentage of infected people who are later hospitalized is still much lower now than it was during the last peak of the pandemic in January, about 2 percent compared with 9 percent. But the National Health Service is already feeling the strain, and with fears of a virulent flu season, hospitals face the prospect of a double-whammy this winter. |
| 现在，与今年1月疫情的上一个高峰时期相比，被感染者最终住院的比例仍然低得多，约为2%，而不是9%。但英国国民保健署(National Health Service)已经感受到了压力，而且由于担心会出现恶性流感季节，医院今年冬天可能面临双重打击的前景。 |
| There is also evidence that more vaccinated people are getting infected, a shift from a few weeks ago, when the bulk of infections occurred in schoolchildren, according to Professor Spector’s Zoe Covid Study. The government sent students back to school in September largely unvaccinated and without requiring them to wear face masks. |
| 根据斯佩克特的Zoe新冠研究(Zoe Covid Study)，另外还有证据表明，更多接种疫苗的人正在被感染，这与几周前的情况有所不同，当时大部分感染发生在学生当中。政府在9月份让学生返校，他们基本上没有接种疫苗，也没有被要求戴口罩。 |
| “This problem, which was mainly confined to students, is now moving up the generations,” Professor Spector said. “The makeup of the infected is a mix of young, unvaccinated people and older, vaccinated people.” |
| “这个问题以前主要局限于学生，现在已经波及到了上几辈人，”斯佩克特说。“感染者包括未接种疫苗的年轻人和已接种疫苗的老年人。” |
| That, he said, mostly reflects the waning efficacy of the vaccines, which were rolled out earlier in Britain than in most other large countries and so are wearing off earlier. Nearly 80 percent of people 12 and older in Britain have received two shots of a vaccine, but most older people got their shots six months ago or earlier. |
| 他说，这主要反映了疫苗效力的减弱，英国的疫苗比其他大多数大国更早推出，因此也更早失效。在英国，12岁及以上的人中有近80%已接种两针疫苗，但大多数老年人是在六个月前或更早的时候接种的。 |
| The protection from two shots of AstraZeneca, the most widely used vaccine in Britain, drops from 88 percent after one month to 74 percent after four to five months, according to an analysis by the Zoe study. |
| Zoe研究的分析显示，在接受两针英国使用最广泛的阿斯利康疫苗(AstraZeneca)后，一个月后的保护率为88%，四到五个月后下降为74%。 |
| So far, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has rejected calls to reimpose measures, like making masks compulsory in indoor spaces, or to impose new measures, like vaccine passports for mass gatherings — a practice that France and other European countries have adopted. |
| 到目前为止，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)拒绝了重新实施在室内强制佩戴口罩等限制措施的呼吁，也拒绝实施新措施，比如在大规模集会时使用疫苗护照——法国和其他欧洲国家已经采取了这种做法。 |
| Instead, the government is urging those eligible for booster shots, particularly the elderly and other vulnerable groups, to sign up for them, trying to jump-start a rollout that has had little of the speed or urgency of the vaccine deployment last winter. |
| 相反，政府正在敦促有资格注射加强针的人——特别是老年人和其他弱势群体——报名参加。政府这次展开疫苗接种的尝试远不及去年冬天的疫苗部署速度。 |
| On Thursday Mr. Johnson said that “the numbers of infections are high but we are within the parameters of what the predictions were,” adding, “we are sticking with our plan.” |
| 周四，约翰逊说，“感染人数很高，但在预测的范围内”，他还说，“我们坚持我们的计划。” |
| A day earlier, Mr. Johnson’s health minister, Sajid Javid, warned that the number of cases could soar to 100,000 a day in coming weeks, repeating a warning that he first issued in July when the government lifted most of the social-distancing restrictions in a heavily promoted move that Britain’s tabloids named “Freedom Day.” |
| 一天前，约翰逊的卫生部长萨吉德·贾维德(Sajid Javid)警告说，未来几周病例数可能会飙升至每天10万例，重申了他在7月首次发布的警告，当时政府取消了大部分社交距离限制，被英国小报大力宣传为“自由日”。 |
| When cases dropped rather than rose in the days after the measures were lifted, to the surprise of many epidemiologists, it appeared to vindicate the government’s strategy. That was during the summer, however, when the weather was warmer, schools were not in session and vaccine protection was higher. |
| 令许多流行病学家惊讶的是，在措施取消后的几天里，病例数不升反降，似乎证明了政府的策略是正确的。然而，那是在夏天，气温高，学校不上课，疫苗的保护效果更强。 |
| Britain’s daily number of infections is now triple that of Germany, France and Spain combined. These countries have caught up to, and in some cases, surpassed Britain, in the proportion of people vaccinated. That has prompted many public health experts to urge the government to reconsider its aversion to restrictions. |
| 英国的每日感染人数现在是德国、法国和西班牙总和的三倍。这些国家在接种疫苗的人口比例方面已经赶上，有的还超过了英国。这促使许多公共卫生专家敦促政府重新考虑限制措施。 |
| “We’re running way ahead of Europe,” said Devi Sridhar, head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh. “We should be moving to Plan B, which is where much of Europe already is.” |
| “我们比欧洲高出太多，”爱丁堡大学全球公共卫生项目负责人德维·斯里达尔(Devi Sridhar)说。“我们应该转向B计划，欧洲大部分地区已经这样做了。” |
| The government’s Plan B remains on the back burner for now. From the start of the pandemic, Mr. Johnson has been reluctant to impose restrictions. His stance is reinforced by pressure from a group of influential lawmakers in his Conservative Party, known as the Covid Recovery Group, who argue that there are wider costs to society from draconian limits on economic or social activity. |
| 政府的B计划目前仍被搁置。从大流行开始，约翰逊就一直不愿施加限制。他的想法在新冠康复小组(Covid Recovery Group)的推动下更坚定了，该小组由一群有影响力的保守党立法者组成，他们认为，对经济或社会活动的严厉限制会给社会带来更大的代价。 |
| Though the government still recommends wearing masks in crowded spaces, lawmakers have reinforced the impression that normal life has returned by discarding them. At the Conservative Party’s conference earlier this month, almost nobody wore a mask, and they are rarely spotted in the House of Commons. |
| 尽管政府仍然建议在人多的地方戴口罩，但立法者已经通过摒弃口罩强化了生活已恢复正常的印象。在本月早些时候的保守党会议上，几乎没有人戴口罩，在下议院也很少见到戴口罩的人。 |
| After Mr. Javid was challenged on the issue at a news conference on Wednesday, some of his colleagues put on masks the next day. But on London’s subway and other public places, they are less and less in evidence. |
| 在周三的新闻发布会上，贾维德在这个问题上受到质疑后，他的一些同事第二天就戴上了口罩。但在伦敦的地铁和其他公共场所，口罩越来越少见。 |
| Having taken credit for normalizing life, Mr. Johnson has found it hard to reverse course. Downing Street now hopes that a midterm school vacation will drive down infection rates. It also plans a publicity campaign, using the slogan, “Get vaccinated, get boosted, get protected,” to urge people to get booster shots and to remind them of the continuing dangers of the virus. |
| 约翰逊因让生活正常化而受到赞誉后，发现很难改变方向。唐宁街现在希望学校的期中假期能够降低感染率。它还计划开展宣传活动，使用“接种疫苗、加强免疫、得到保护”的口号，敦促人们接种加强针，并提醒他们病毒的危险还在持续。 |
| “The rollout of the boosters has been very disappointing,” said David King, a former chief scientific adviser to the government. “What the British government has done is to sit back and say, ‘We can’t control this, so let’s just let this spread.’” |
| “接种加强针的展开非常令人失望，”前政府首席科学顾问大卫·金(David King)说。“英国政府所做的就是袖手旁观，并说，‘我们无法控制，所以就让它传播吧。’” |
| With he and other experts calling for tougher measures, many expect Mr. Johnson will soon yield and implement his Plan B for the winter. That would mean making masks mandatory in some settings, urging people to work from home where possible and requiring them to show proof of their vaccination status to enter nightclubs and other public gatherings (Scotland and Wales have already imposed similar measures). |
| 由于他和其他专家呼吁采取更严厉的措施，许多人预计约翰逊将很快屈服，并为过冬实施他的B计划。这意味着在某些情况下将强制要求戴口罩，敦促人们尽可能在家工作，并要求他们出示疫苗接种证明才能进入夜店和参加其他公共集会（苏格兰和威尔士已经采取了类似措施）。 |
| Critics say that this conforms to a familiar pattern. “The government is doing what the government has done all along: dithered and delayed and not really confronted the issues,” said Gabriel Scally, a visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol and a former regional director of public health. |
| 批评人士说，这符合一种熟悉的模式。布里斯托大学(University of Bristol)公共卫生访问教授、前公共卫生区域主任加布里埃尔·斯卡利(Gabriel Scally)说：“政府所做的事情一如既往：犹豫和拖延，并没有真正面对问题。” |
| The government, he said, had failed to produce a convincing strategy to curb infections. There had been little effort to equip office buildings with better ventilation or to urge the public to wear face coverings in crowded spaces and use higher quality masks. |
| 他说，政府未能制定令人信服的策略来遏制感染。几乎没有努力为办公楼提供更好的通风，或敦促公众在拥挤的空间戴口罩并使用更高质量的口罩。 |
| “They don’t have a strategy to get the virus under control and take the pressure off the N.H.S.,” Mr. Scally said, referring to Britain’s National Health Service. “They have put all their eggs in the vaccine basket and those eggs are not hatching.” |
| “他们没有控制病毒并减轻NHS压力的策略，”斯卡利说，这里的NHS指的是英国的国家卫生服务。“他们把所有的鸡蛋都放在了疫苗篮子里，但这些鸡蛋并没有孵化出成果。” |
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