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中国试射高超音速导弹?我们对相关报道进行了解析
If China Tested a New Orbital Weapon, It’s Not Much of a Surprise

来源:纽约时报    2021-10-20 03:47



        The news report that emerged over the weekend sounded alarming: China, a rising military power, had unexpectedly fired a novel space weapon two months ago. It circled the planet and then re-entered Earth’s atmosphere, gliding at velocities far faster than the speed of sound toward a destination on Chinese territory.
        过去的这个周末出现了一则惊人的报道:中国这个崛起中的军事大国,在两个月前出人意料地发射了一种新型太空武器。它绕地球飞行,然后重新进入大气层,以远超音速的速度向中国境内的一处目标飞去。
        As a military capability, bombarding a target from orbit in this way could overcome existing missile defenses. But many experts expressed doubts about the report.
        作为一种军事能力,以这种方式从地球轨道轰炸目标可以克服现有的导弹防御系统。但许多专家对该报道表示怀疑。
        “There’s nothing we know from reliable sources,” said Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer who tracks global space launches. The U.S. military unit that reports on orbital events had made public no information on an August launch by China that matched the reported claim about a weapons test, McDowell said.
        追踪全球太空发射的哈佛天文学家乔纳森·麦克道威尔(Jonathan McDowell)说:“从多个可靠信源那里,我们没有得到任何消息。”麦克道威尔说,负责报告轨道事件的美国军事单位公开的关于中国8月的发射信息当中,没有任何与新闻报道中声称的武器试验相符。
        “Every aspect of this story has question marks,” he added.
        他还说:“这个故事的每个方面都令人心生怀疑。”
        Did China really test and develop a surprise space weapon? Here are some of the military and technical points that are known about the system, as well as some of the responses to and uncertainties about the flight test.
        中国真的测试和开发出惊人的太空武器了吗?以下是有关该系统的一些已知的军事和技术要点,以及对试射的一些回应和不确定性。
        What was reported about China’s flight test?
        关于中国此次试射的报道中有哪些内容?
        The Financial Times on Saturday reported that China in August had flight-tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile that circumnavigated the globe before speeding toward its target. The paper, giving one of the scarce details about the test, said the weapon missed its target by about two dozen miles.
        《金融时报》(The Financial Times)周六的报道称中国在8月试射了一种可携带核弹头的高超音速导弹,该导弹在加速飞向目标之前会环绕地球。报道提供的细节不多,其中一个是该武器错过了目标大约20多英里(大约30多公里)。
        The report relied on a variety of anonymous sources, including one that said the weapon test caught U.S. intelligence by surprise. “We have no idea how they did this,” the newspaper quoted an unnamed source as saying.
        该报告依赖于各种匿名消息来源,其中一个信源称,这次试验让美国情报部门大吃一惊。“我们不知道他们是怎么做到的,”该报援引一位未透露姓名的消息人士的话说。
        Did China acknowledge carrying out the test?
        中方是否承认进行了试射?
        On Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry said there was a flight test of a reusable space vehicle, not a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile. At a regular news briefing, Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, called it a routine test.
        周一,中国外交部表示,试射的是可重复使用的航天器,而不是具有核能力的高超音速导弹。在例行的新闻发布会上,中国外交部发言人赵立坚称这是例行测试。
        “There are many companies all over the world that have conducted similar tests,” he said.
        他说:“世界上有多家公司都开展了类似试验。”
        Previously, Mr. Zhao has been criticized by Western experts on China for making unsubstantiated claims and laying out conspiracy theories.
        此前,赵立坚因提出未经证实的说法和散步阴谋论而受到西方中国问题专家的批评。
        China initially gave August as the test date, but later said the vehicle test happened in July, according to Bloomberg News. Last year in September, the state-owned company that oversees China’s space industry announced a test of an experimental reusable spacecraft that completed a flight in low Earth orbit.
        据彭博社报道,中国最初给出的试射日期是8月,但后来表示该测试发生在7月。去年9月,负责中国航天工业的国企宣布对实验性的可重复使用航天器进行测试,该航天器将完成一次近地轨道飞行。
        Is it true that this test launch was a surprise?
        这次试射真的出人意料吗?
        Probably not. The story’s most eye-catching aspect — that China’s weapon circled the globe before speeding toward its target — is old stuff. The technology was pioneered in the 1960s by the Soviet Union. Then it was known as the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System, or FOBS. It is so named because it never achieves a complete orbit of the Earth but only a fraction.
        也许不是。这个故事最引人注目的地方——该武器在加速飞向目标之前绕了地球一圈——并非什么新鲜事。该技术由苏联在上世纪60年代首创。那时,它被称为部分轨道轰炸系统(Fractional Orbital Bombardment System,FOBS)。它之所以如此命名是因为它不用完成完整的地轨飞行,只飞一小部分。
        David Wright, a physicist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has long studied space developments, said that some descriptions of the test launch have been alarmist.
        长期研究太空发展的麻省理工学院物理学家戴维·赖特(David Wright)表示,对试射的一些描述是危言耸听。
        “Any country that can put something into space could do this,” he said. “And we certainly should not be surprised that China could do this given the sophistication of its space program.”
        “任何可以往太空发射东西的国家都可以做到这一点,”他说。“鉴于中国太空计划的复杂性,我们当然不应对其能够做到这一点感到惊讶。”
        Some experts see China as challenging U.S. dominance in space exploration. In the past year alone, the country has returned soil samples from the moon, set down a rover on Mars and launched two crews of astronauts to the country’s new space station.
        一些专家认为,中国正在挑战美国在太空探索方面的主导地位。仅在过去的一年里,中国就从月球上取回了土壤样本,在火星上放置了一个漫游车,并发射火箭将两名宇航员送上该国新的空间站。
        The nation is also digging hundreds of new silos for long-range nuclear missiles, building an arsenal of antisatellite weapons, and routinely firing more rockets into space than any other country.
        它还在挖掘数百个新的远程核导弹发射井,建立一个反卫星武器库,并且定期向太空发射火箭,数量比任何国家都多。
        That the weapon was identified as hypersonic — meaning that it flew at more than five times the speed of sound — is also unsurprising. The United States began investigating that technology more than a half century ago, and a RAND Corporation report in 2017 said more than two dozen nations, including China, were experimenting with how to achieve hypersonic flight. North Korea also claimed that it had tested such a weapon recently.
        该武器被确定为高超音速,这意味着它的飞行速度是音速的五倍以上,这也不足为奇。半个多世纪前,美国开始研究这项技术,兰德公司(RAND Corporation)2017年的一份报告称,包括中国在内的20多个国家正在试验如何实现高超音速飞行。朝鲜也声称它最近测试了这样的武器。
        How did the Biden administration react?
        拜登政府是如何反应的?
        The Pentagon spoke of China’s military strides in general but did not discuss the claimed test. “We will not comment about the specifics of these reports,” John F. Kirby, the Defense Department’s chief spokesman, said in a statement. “We have made clear our concerns about the military capabilities China continues to pursue — capabilities that only increase tensions in the region and beyond.”
        五角大楼从总体上谈及中国的军事进步,但没有讨论报道中的试验。“我们不会对这些报道的细节发表评论,”国防部首席发言人约翰·F·柯比(John F. Kirby)在一份声明中说。“我们已经明确表示,我们对中国继续追求的军事能力表示关切——这些能力只会加剧该地区及其他地区的紧张局势。”
        A senior U.S. official, who spoke anonymously to describe confidential intelligence assessments, said there was some skepticism over how the Financial Times had portrayed the Chinese test. It’s not the case that a flight test didn’t happen, the official said, but rather the trustworthiness of the newspaper’s depiction.
        一位匿名谈论机密情报评估的美国高级官员表示,对《金融时报》关于中国试射的描述存在一些怀疑。这位官员说,问题并不是有没有进行试射,而是该报描述的可信度。
        Ned Price, the State Department spokesman, echoed the Pentagon in giving no specifics but at his daily briefing Monday said: “We are deeply concerned” about the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities, “including its development of novel delivery systems.”
        美国国务院发言人内德·普莱斯(Ned Price)与五角大楼立场相同,没有提供具体细节,但在他周一的每日简报中表示:“我们深切关注”中国核能力的迅速扩张,“包括新型运载系统的开发”。
        
        
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